Chembry

No lingering effects for me. Immediate effects were pain, tingling, and swelling, but those went away as healing progressed. Buxton had a similar issue earlier this year and people were jumping all over him for missing a few games. I had to come to his defense in that case. It's different getting hit in the hand versus thigh or the backside of the body. All those small bones in your hands can really impact grip.

I didn't see the play, but getting hit in the hand with a 90+ mph fastball hurts like hell! I have been there. I was hit by a 94 mph fastball in college. Xrays were negative, but it was a good week before I could grip a bat or ball with any confidence.

No I didn't miss the point...this thread was about building a dominant bullpen and not about an entire rebuild. I didn't say they were going to keep Lopez/Ryan/Ober. I said IF they keep Lopez/Ryan/Ober...I think it's likely they trade at least one, but I am not making any judgements until it happens. I also agree that the Twins probably trade Larnach or Wallner, but again I am not making judgements until it happens. It would be fun to see Emmanuel Rodriguez (if he can stay healthy), Walker Jenkins, and Kaelen Culpepper...In fact, I would rather see them in 2026 than what we currently have... I never said anything about rebuilding or competing in 2026...I said IF the rotation remains the same, converting 1-2 starters that are competing for the #5 spot in the rotation would help build that bullpen. That is all I said...

Here it is. I missed the word hypothetically so it's probably not completely accurate:

I am trying to find the video...I just watched it last night

I don't recall

LOL! Did you read anything else in that post or anything else I posted? I never said saying they are going to replace all of our previous relief pitchers with starters...I stated many times that given no trades/injuries our top 4 in the rotation are more than likely Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Matthews. That leaves the other 6 potential candidates fighting for 1 rotation spot. Then I said it wouldn't take much convincing to convert 1 or maybe 2 of those starters to a bullpen role... never once did I mention converting them all to RP roles

I recently listened to a podcast on Twins daily where they mentioned Seattle offered Harry Ford and Jurrangelo Cijntje (switch pitcher who hits 97-99 with both arms). Ford and Tait are quite different prospects. Ford is a guy that will hit for average over power and might steal 20-30 bases bases, while Tait has that 30-40 HR/year upside with a big arm behind the plate. I saw he recently hit a couple balls with exit velocities at 108 and 116 mph...That pretty impressive for an 18 year old. Let's just hope he keeps on the trajectory he is on. Personally I would have liked if we could have received Harry Ford and Tyler Locklear. Locklear would lock down 1B for a while. He went to AZ in the Eugenio Suarez trade. in 11 games with AZ since the trade, he is hitting .220 with 2 HR. He strikes out at a decent clip (~25%), but also has that 30-40 HR upside and draws a lot of walks (~13% walk rate).

I agree with you that starters are more valuable that relievers. However, your argument is #4 or #5 starters get paid more than relievers. I agree with that to an extent. I am saying if a fringe starter, especially one that is competing with 5-6 others for one spot in the rotation, may be better off switching to a bullpen role if they have the chance to be a very good high leverage reliever. If that is the case, they will get paid as well, if not more, than a #4 or #5 starter. Here is the data. These depth charts were taken directly from ESPN.com and the salaries from Sportrac. As you can see, on average a #4 or #5 starter is mostly pre arbitration guys. However, the ones that are post arbitration make similar money as average relievers. There are guys whose salaries are inflated due to history of being a #1 or #2 starter (Aaron Nola, Chris Bassit, Jose Berrios, etc...) SP1 SP1 Salary SP2 SP2 Salary SP3 SP3 Salary SP4 SP4 Salary SP5 SP5 Salary Kyle Bradish IL60 2,350,000 Zach Eflin IL15 18,000,000 Dean Kremer 2,950,000 Trevor Rogers 2,600,000 Tomoyuki Sugano 13,000,000 Garrett Crochet 3,800,000 Brayan Bello 2,500,000 Lucas Giolito 19,000,000 Dustin May 2,135,000 Walker Buehler 21,050,000 Max Fried 22,000,000 Carlos Rodon 27,000,000 Luis Gil 804,125 Will Warren 767,600 Ryan Yarbrough IL15 2,000,000 Ryan Pepiot 774,600 Shane Baz 1,450,000 Drew Rasmussen 2,250,000 Adrian Houser 1,375,000 Joe Boyle 760,000 Kevin Gausman 23,000,000 Shane Bieber IL60 3,172,017 Max Scherzer 15,500,000 Jose Berrios 19,000,000 Chris Bassitt 22,000,000 Aaron Civale 4,602,151 Shane Smith 760,000 Martin Perez IL60 3,500,000 Sean Burke 760,350 Davis Martin 765,450 Tanner Bibee 5,000,000 Gavin Williams 780,300 Logan Allen 777,200 Slade Cecconi 765,000 Joey Cantillo 762,800 Tarik Skubal 10,150,000 Jack Flaherty 25,000,000 Casey Mize 2,340,000 Chris Paddack 7,500,000 Charlie Morton 15,000,000 Cole Ragans IL60 1,250,000 Seth Lugo 15,000,000 Michael Wacha 18,000,000 Michael Lorenzen IL15 5,500,000 Noah Cameron 760,000 Pablo lopez 21,500,000 Joe Ryan 3,000,000 Bailey Ober 3,550,000 Zebby Matthews 760,000 David Festa 760,000 Jeffrey Springs 10,500,000 Luis Severino IL15 20,000,000 Jacob Lopez 760,000 J.T. Ginn 760,000 Jack Perkins 760,000 Hunter Brown 870,000 Framber Valdez 18,000,000 Spencer Arrighetti 794,200 Cristian Javier 10,400,000 Luis Garcia IL60 1,875,000 Yusei Kikuchi 21,225,000 Jose Soriano 790,000 Tyler Anderson DD 13,000,000 Kyle Hendricks 2,500,000 Victor Mederos 760,000 Luis Castillo 22,750,000 George Kirby 4,300,000 Logan Gilbert 7,625,000 Bryan Woo 783,300 Bryce Miller IL15 800,000 Nathan Eovaldi 30,100,000 Jacob deGrom 40,100,000 Merrill Kelly 7,000,000 Tyler Mahle IL60 16,500,000 Jack Leiter 2,050,000 Spencer Strider 4,000,000 Chris Sale IL60 22,000,000 Bryce Elder 800,000 Joey Wentz 775,000 Hurston Waldrep 760,000 Eury Perez 769,500 Ryan Weathers IL60 779,100 Sandy Alcantara 17,300,000 Edward Cabrera 1,950,000 Cal Quantrill 3,500,000 Kodai Senga 14,000,000 Sean Manaea 20,212,526 David Peterson 4,625,000 Clay Holmes 13,000,000 Tylor Megill IL60 1,975,000 Zack Wheeler 42,000,000 Ranger Suarez 8,800,000 Jesus Luzardo 6,626,000 Cristopher Sanchez 2,050,000 Aaron Nola IL60 24,571,428 MacKenzie Gore 2,890,000 Mitchell Parker 767,200 Jake Irvin 774,600 Brad Lord 760,000 Cade Cavalli 760,200 Shota Imanaga 13,000,000 Matthew Boyd 10,000,000 Jameson Taillon IL15 18,000,000 Cade Horton 760,000 Michael Soroka IL15 9,000,000 Hunter Greene IL15 6,000,000 Nick Lodolo IL15 1,975,000 Andrew Abbott 770,000 Zack Littell 5,720,000 Brady Singer 8,750,000 Freddy Peralta 8,100,000 Brandon Woodruff 5,000,000 Jose Quintana 2,000,000 Quinn Priester 760,000 Jacob Misiorowski IL15 760,000 Paul Skenes 875,000 Mitch Keller 15,411,500 Mike Burrows 760,000 Andrew Heaney 5,250,000 Braxton Ashcraft 760,000 Sonny Gray 25,000,000 Matthew Liberatore 775,800 Andre Pallante 2,100,100 Miles Mikolas 17,666,667 Michael McGreevy 760,000 Zac Gallen 13,500,000 Eduardo Rodriguez 20,000,000 Ryne Nelson 825,000 Brandon Pfaadt 799,400 Anthony DeSclafani 2,000,000 Kyle Freeland 16,000,000 German Marquez IL15 10,000,000 Austin Gomber 6,350,000 Antonio Senzatela IL15 12,000,000 Bradley Blalock 762,000 Yoshinobu Yamamoto 10,000,000 Shohei Ohtani 28,216,944 Tyler Glasnow 32,500,000 Blake Snell 28,436,867 Clayton Kershaw 7,500,000 Michael King 4,000,000 Nick Pivetta 2,500,000 Dylan Cease 13,750,000 Yu Darvish 21,000,000 Nestor Cortes 7,600,000 Logan Webb 12,000,000 Robbie Ray 25,000,000 Justin Verlander 15,000,000 Landen Roupp IL15 765,000 Kai-Wei Teng 760,000 Average 11,733,542 11,709,680 7,334,374 6,126,639 5,110,729

You are probably right, but he hasn't shown the durability to last a season as a starter...yet. And his numbers haven't been great this year at AAA 1-8 6.42 ERA. Although he has had several good starts recently.

The point of the post I quoted was that it would be difficult to convince a fringe (#4 or #5) starter to convert to a reliever based on salary. There are 20 relief pitchers in 2025 making $10M/year or greater. Yes, that is the top 10% of relievers. But, it's simply not true that relievers can't make as much as a #4 or #5 starter and have more success. Here is my opinion: Every team needs 8 relievers... most of the fringe starters are fighting for the #4 or #5 spot in the rotation and could very well spend the vast majority of their time in AAA. Given nobody is traded in the offseason, we have Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Matthews, Festa, SWR, Bradley, and Abel that have MLB experience. Then we have Raya and Morris at AAA, Prelipp at AA. Again if no trades/injuries occur, our top 4 is more than likely set at Lopez, Ryan, Ober, and Matthews. That leaves the other 6 (7 if you want to include Prelipp) fighting for the #5 spot. I am not sure it would take that much convincing to move 1-2 into the high leverage bullpen situations, especially if they have the chance to be very good. I would argue that we have several potential starters that may very well fit the mold of high leverage relievers: Festa, SWR for example... Maybe Raya, Morris, Prelipp (depending on durability,)

Not true. Edwin Diaz signed a 5-year $102M deal in 2022. Josh Hader $19M/year. Tanner Scott 18M/year. Raisel Iglesias $14.5M/year, Ryan Pressley $15M/year...I could go on High end closers, which we have a few potential candidates, will get paid once they hit unrestricted free agency.

Wonder if the Twins could have got Harry Ford and Tyler Locklear from Seattle for Duran. That would have solved C and 1B going forward. Edit: I was talking to a friend of mine who lives in the pacific NW and a big Mariners fan. He was surprised that Ford wasn't traded. He doesn't believe Ford will ever play for the Mariners, due to Raleigh. Twins were trying to get Painter. Maybe that was smoke and mirrors knowing Philly wasn’t going to let Painter go. My guess is Philly said, instead of Painter and Tait, we can give you Abel and Tait…Pure speculation on my part. It was widely publicized that the Twins asked for Painter though.

Keaschall was just named AL player of the week. Been fantastic since coming back off the IL. Another note, Maple Grove native Isaac Collins named NL player of the week. Good for both of them. https://www.mlb.com/stories/players-of-the-week-aug-11-2025

All that I heard on TV was that he had a cut on his arm on Tuesday. By Wednesday, he could barely lift his arm. He went to the hospital and they cleaned and flushed out the wound. He is still in the hospital on IV antibiotics and fluids. Definitely a scary situation.

I travel quite a bit for work and have been in Boston quite a bit recently. Fans in Boston absolutely hate Cora as their manager. I have been told he is the "worst manager in baseball" more times than I can count recently. The reason I bring this up is fans tend to go to the extreme and only see what their manager does. A very narrow viewpoint. This same holds true for every city I travel to. Most MLB fans aren't terribly happy with their manager or front office for that matter. They don't do enough to help their team win.

Agreed. There are a few recent players that skipped AAA or had very limited time in AAA that come to mind: Zach Neto: in 2022 went from A+ to AA playing only 37 games total between those levels. In 2023 played 11 games between AA and AAA before getting promoted to MLB. One might say he struggled a bit at the MLB level in 2023 hitting .225 with a .685 OPS, but now paying dividends. He is hitting .286 this year with 16 HR and .778 OPS. Nick Kurtz: Played only 32 games in minors total. He was crushing AAA pitching though. Bobby Witt Jr: played 63 games total at AAA Julio Rodriguez: Skipped AAA altogether CJ Abrams: played 38 games total at AAA

What you are questioning is a direct quote from the article. Yes, I do believe relievers are more volatile, especially ERA. And yes, that is largely due to sample size (innings pitched). But also with the situation they find themselves in. I can argue, when a starter gives up 4 runs early in the game, they have time to compensate. However, when a reliever comes into the game, typically it's towards the back end of the game and don't have the length of rope a starter does, simply due to the situation. So, when a reliever gives up 4 runs, it significantly affects their ERA. So, yes I understand that is volatile. But what about underlying metrics? Let's take a look at some top relievers from 2021 (I just picked that year because that was in the article) and look at deeper metrics to see how volatile they really are. I will throw in a few Twins relievers as well for fun. ERA 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Josh Hader 1.23 5.22 1.28 3.8 2.13 Emmanuel Clase 1.29 1.36 3.22 0.61 3.23 Ryan Pressley 2.25 2.98 3.58 3.49 4.35 Jordan Romano 2.14 2.11 2.9 6.59 6.64 Devin Williams 2.50 1.93 1.53 1.25 5.44 Tyler Rogers 2.22 3.57 3.04 2.82 1.87 Luke Jackson 1.98 2.97 5.09 4.54 Johan Duran 1.86 2.45 3.64 1.93 Griffin Jax 6.37 3.36 3.86 2.03 4.47 Jorge Alcala 3.92 0 6.23 3.24 6.64 BABIP 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Josh Hader 0.237 0.333 0.264 0.23 0.206 Emmanuel Clase 0.262 0.222 0.295 0.195 0.324 Ryan Pressley 0.296 0.26 0.272 0.333 0.31 Jordan Romano 0.252 0.256 0.292 0.3 0.304 Devin Williams 0.298 0.266 0.198 0.25 0.284 Tyler Rogers 0.278 0.293 0.268 0.274 0.263 Luke Jackson 0.253 0.284 0.319 0.267 Johan Duran 0.291 0.294 0.321 0.287 Griffin Jax 0.248 0.269 0.298 0.269 0.383 Jorge Alcala 0.245 0.333 0.209 0.219 0.351 ERA+ 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Josh Hader 213 77 331 106 193 Emmanuel Clase 333 278 132 674 129 Ryan Pressley 191 129 119 116 89 Jordan Romano 209 183 149 63 67 Devin Williams 166 209 282 331 75 Tyler Rogers 186 111 138 137 210 Luke Jackson 220 142 79 84 Johan Duran 210 179 115 224 Griffin Jax 67 116 114 207 96 Jorge Alcala 109 71 130 64 The top half of the tables are the best relivers in 2021 in terms of ERA. The ERA table shows that year to year their ERA is volatile, but we already knew that. Looking into deeper metrics, BABIP there appears to be some volatility year to year and loose correlation to ERA. I really like ERA+ as a metric. Just in case you aren't familiar, ERA+ is adjusts a pitcher's earned run average (ERA) to account for factors like ballpark and league environment, making it easier to compare pitchers across different eras and stadiums. A league-average ERA+ is 100, with higher numbers indicating better performance (a pitcher allowing fewer runs than average) and lower numbers indicating worse performance. Looking at the table, there is significant volatility year to in most relievers ERA+. I am not showing it here, but there is also volatility in HR/9, even with the best most consistent relievers in the game. With all that being said, you are correct that reliever math is different and that is mostly due to sample size due the situation they are in when entering the game. The ultimate question you posed was can relievers maintain some of the deeper metrics (BABIP, HR rate). The underlying metrics show there is some volatility year to year. Some bigger than others. Nobody knows if Louis can maintain the metrics he is putting up this year. Time will tell. Ultimately, the Twins thought trading a reliever (with 5 years of control) for what they think is an everyday OF in Roden (6 years of control) and a potential 2/3/4 spot LH starting pitcher (in AAA with high upside), was worth more than Varland and his 5 years of control, whether we like it or not.

1. Jax asked for the trade and the Twins obliged. End of story. I don't think the Twins had any intention of trading Jax until he requested the trade. Were they listening to offers, yes of course they were. I really don't think they went into the day saying we are trading Jax. That's why the deal was closed right at the deadline. 2. There is a story on MLB.com today about the Varland trade. The Twins weren't intending to trade Varland. According to Cory Provus, the Blue Jays have been trying to acquire Varland for a few years. When they came calling and offered Rojas/Roden for Varland/France, the Twins thought that was too good to pass up. Here is a few statements from the article: https://www.mlb.com/news/why-the-twins-traded-louis-varland-to-the-blue-jays "First, know this: The Twins weren’t looking to move Varland. I don’t think anyone in the front office thought that the hometown kid would be one of the players moved. But as you hear all the time, all it takes is one phone call, and they got the call that made them -- to use a term I heard a lot this week -- “motivated.” It starts with this: The Twins believe Alan Roden, who came over from the Blue Jays, will be something very close to an everyday Major League outfielder, and as you’ve seen, they’re already playing him that way. They like his athleticism -- he’s the best defensive corner outfielder currently on the roster -- and they like his approach at the plate. But it’s the other player in the deal who they view as the real prize. The Twins rate lefty Kendry Rojas very, very highly. They were as fond of him as any pitcher in the Blue Jays’ system. Just because analysts don’t have him as a Top-100 prospect, doesn’t mean the Twins view him as lesser. But there’s another aspect, and I found this very interesting. One thing that a lot of people have noted is that Varland still has five years of team control remaining. But I was told by someone in the industry that sometimes teams view that differently for relievers than other positions. Relief pitchers are, without question, the most volatile players in baseball. If you took a look at the best relievers in 2021 and the best relievers in ‘25, there would be almost no overlap. So the math is just a little different. Yes, you have Varland for five years, but it’s not the same as having a hitter or starter for five years. The value is just different. None of that may change your view. You may still be angry, sad or frustrated, and I’m not trying to change your mind. But I do hope you have a better understanding of the thought process." My point is, I don't think the two trades you mention have any bearing or impact on trading Lopez/Ryan/Ober. Now I believe one of them will be traded and I don't think that necessarily means they have punted. From what I read, the Twins wanted Jarren Duran or Wilyer Abreu + prospects for Joe Ryan. That doesn't scream punting to me. That tells me the Twins think they can compete with a few additional pieces and build their bullpen internally from the fringe starters (Festa/SWR/Raya).

I have to laugh at this. After Aaron Civale was moved to the bullpen in Milwaukee, he requested a trade. They traded him to the White Sox for Andrew Vaughn. Vaughn has been on a tear since arriving in Milwaukee. Be careful what you wish for, Vaugh is now thriving in a better situation in Milwaukee.

What is encouraging about Bradley is he had a sub 4 ERA heading into June this year. Looking at his starts after June, he had 5 starts where he gave up >4 runs. He gave an interview in St Paul where he said he had quite a few good starts this year, but in those rough outings he had this year he had a "harder time closing the door". Good lessons learned. I don't know if you consider Jacob Misiorowski up and coming. He made his MLB debut in June for the Brewers. He holds >100 mph as a starter. I have seen him throw 100 into the 7th inning. Graterol has had a whole host of injuries since joining the Dodgers. Pretty sure he has only pitched about 7-8 innings since the start of 2024. Inside the Twins organization, I am not aware of anyone that is throwing 100+ on the regular. We do have several that will sit in the mid to upper 90's: Taj Bradley (newly acquired at AAA): sits 95-97 comfortably and touches 99 Mick Abel (newly acquired at AAA): sits 95-97 comfortably and touches 99 Marco Raya (AAA): sits ~95. Have seen him hit 98 a few times this year Kendry Rojas (newly acquired at AAA): from scouting reports hits 97 Connor Prelipp (AA): Twins taking him slow after TJ surgery, but hits 97 Charlie Soto (A+): Turns 20 at the end of August and sits at 95-97 Riley Quick: (Drafted 2025): This guy is interesting. Dude is huge. 6'6" at 255 lbs. Chose baseball over football. Missed his junior year at University of Alabama after TJ surgery. Senior year his sinker was sitting at 96-97 touching 99. He just turned 21 Note- all these guys are starting pitchers where they sacrifice some velocity in favor of stamina. If any of these guys make the transition to the bullpen (i.e. the Varland/Jax/Duran/Perkins route) most of these guys could probably hit 100 on a fairly regular basis.

Came back as one of the players in the Varland trade. A strong hitter in the minors. Hit .310 in 2023 at AA and .314 at AAA in 2024. Made the Blue Jays roster out of spring training hitting .407 with 220wRC+. Struggled in ~40 games with the Blue Jays and was optioned back to AAA. Has since hit .331 in AAA before coming over to the Twins. Above average speed. Low K rate and high walk rate in the minors. We will if he can get comfortable at the MLB level. Today was a big stride.

I was hoping Jax or Duran was going Seattle and Ford being the return. Plus would have been easy to root for Seattle in the postseason. I am a big J-Rod fan and they have several ex-Twins on their roster.

I preface this by saying I don't want to trade Ryan or Lopez, but if you do there are a few other C prospects that may be worthwhile spending some time trying to work out a deal. The Cubs have Moises Ballesteros and Seattle has Harry Ford. Harry Ford may be a bit easier to pry from Seattle who has Cal Raleigh.

I am also puzzled by that line of thinking. I don't think there is any incentive to trade Lopez. He is a veteran presence that can really mentor young up and coming pitchers like Abel, Bradley, Raya, Morris, Prelipp, etc... A clubhouse presence like that is invaluable. If we go under the premise that one of Lopez/Ryan/Ober will be traded in the offseason, my guess is it will be Ryan. He has the highest upside and controllable through 2027. The Red Sox wanted Ryan really bad. From what I read, the Twins wanted Jarren Duran or Wilyer Abreu, but the Red Sox weren't willing to part with them right now. The Red Sox have a logjam of OF currently with Durran, Abreu, Anthony, and Rafaela. They also have Jhostynxon Garcia at AAA who is also MLB ready, but don't have a spot for him. They may revisit those conversations in the offseason and try to get Durran who is under team control through 2028. Or the Twins may pivot to try trading Ryan for a true 1B. They tried to get Christian Walker from the Astros for Correa. That tells me they are trying to compete in 2026 with a younger, more athletic core. I don't think the Twins trade Lopez/Ryan/Ober unless Abel/Bradley show they can step into that role. Even then, I think it's a long shot. If they do, I believe they only move 1 of those 3. Those words may come back to bite me. SWR along with a few others may be a good fit for the bullpen. I have stated, along with others, that a few of our SP should be converted to bullpen roles. Raya seems like he could be a good fit, maybe Festa, Morris, etc...