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Chembry

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Everything posted by Chembry

  1. Chembry
    I asked a question on the MLBTR chat today what it would take to sign Lowe. Anthony Franco responded that a 1/$5-6M would get it done. I would rather sign a longer deal, because I don't want the continuously revolving door, but a $5-6M AAV seems like good value.
  2. Chembry
    100% agree with that. Someone asked on today on the MLBTR chat what it would take to get Mountcastle from the O's and Anthony Franco said a 35 grade prospect...so we are talking none of our top 30...Seems like a decent value to me.
  3. Chembry
    MLBTR was discussing fits for Ryan earlier in the year and Mayo or Westburg was talked about as the headliner. I'm not coming out of nowhere with that assumption...of course that could always change
  4. Chembry
    I understand your viewpoint. I guess the way I look at is, Mountcastle has been at 2-3 WAR production between 2022-2024 and had OPS+ of 108-117, which is above average. He would be a steady presence, but definitely had a down 2025. He is only 28 so he could easily bounce back. If you look strictly at BBTV, EmRod has a surplus of 27.5 and Mayo has surplus value of 18. Baltimore wants pitching though. Mayo lost some value this year...but I don't think Baltimore parts with Mayo unless we part with Lopez or Ryan. I don't think they even look at Ober/SWR/Festa/Matthews. Mayo has struggled in his short time and would be a gamble, but he has big time power. Yes, MLBTR arb estimate is $7.8M...I am thinking off a down year he may accept guaranteed offer. There are many ways to structure a contract to make up any sort of difference, incentives or signing bonuses for example. If he gambles and on his FA value and has another down year, he may not even be looking at $5-7M guaranteed? Just a thought.
  5. Chembry
    Would you be interested in Mountcastle if the Twins could extend him at a rate $5-7M average AAV? I assume the extension would include opt outs at various phases. I would be in on Mountcastle if we could avoid arbitration and renegotiate a 2-3 year contract with options. I understand not everyone would like that, but it would stabilize 1B and he is only 28. He still has good upside. On the other hand, Mayo would would require Lopez or Ryan.
  6. Chembry
    Texas traded Lowe because they wanted some salary relief and wanted to address bullpen deficiencies. They had already acquired Jake Burger earlier in the offseason which made Lowe expendable. Texas thought he could step in and replace Lowe. Additionally, Burger was pre-arb at the time and just now getting to arb1. I didn't say Boston was sold on Casas. I believe they view him as a backup option that is under team control for another 3 years. I could be wrong, but I don't think Casas will get moved until they sign/trade for another IF. But Casas is young and talented, just needs a change of scenery.
  7. Chembry
    Personally, I don't like Keaschall moving to the OF. These types of plans may never see the field, but it does bring questions as to roster construction. How can they keep Buxton, Martin, Roden, Wallner, Larnach, Outman on the roster then? Short answer is, they can't. There is no way the Twins carry 7 OF into opening day 2026, plus have room for Jenkins, Rodriguez, and/or Gonzalez at some point next year. I do believe, Larnach will be traded. I also believe the Twins will release Outman. Wallner will serve as the primary DH. That leaves Buxton, Martin, and Roden as your starting OF with Wallner as 4th OF. I also believe the Twins may explore trading Wallner or E-Rod. Sounds like the Twins wanted to play Keaschall in the OF this year, but the broken forearm and TJ surgery didn't allow that to happen. There are people in the Twins organization that believe he is a better OF than 2nd baseman. Keaschall played quite a bit of OF in the minors. My guess right now is Keaschall won't be an OF option after spring training, especially with the lack of depth at 2nd.
  8. Chembry
    I get it... I do view the current FA that are being pursued as upgrades over guys like Ty France, Carlos Santana, Michael Toglia, and many others. We do differ a bit on Lowe and Mountcastle. I do see them as decent 2-3 year candidates, with options. I don't see Hoskins in that light though. That would allow stabilization of the position and give Mendez time to develop. If Mendez develops faster, then we have options to get out of the contract. Just food for thought.
  9. Chembry
    I saw this last night that the Twins are planning to have Keaschall play the OF some next year.
  10. Chembry
    If we could get one of the FA rumored for 2-3 years at a decent AAV, would you be ok with that? Another potential option is trading for Mountcastle. He only has 1 yr of arbitration left, but theoretically, the Twins could extend him at a reasonable rate (guessing ~$7M/yr AAV). He is younger at 28 and still has offensive upside and is decent defensively. There are so many trade candidates though, it would take a book to walk through them all.
  11. Chembry
    Boston non-tendered Lowe for several reasons: 1. He isn't worth the $13.5M projected arbitration, especially after the first half of the season for the Nationals. However, he was right back to Texas level production in Boston. 2. They already have a younger, cost controlled version of him in Casas. Say what you will about Casas but he has better career OPS/OPS+ than Lowe. He doesn't hit for as high average but he is more of a pure slugger. 2. They were after Alonso and are pursuing the 2 Japanese sluggers, Bregman, and Bichette. They have flexibility in their infield to move pieces to fit whoever they sign. 4. Red Sox have stated they are reluctant to go over the first luxury tax threshold (~$223M). That doesn't allow them much flexibility (~$22M), and they didn't want Lowe's contract getting in the way of them signing Alonso, Bregman, Bichette, or either of the 2 Japanese sluggers. They would go over the first threshold to sign a big name FA. If they do sign a big name FA, they will also trade away Jarren Duran to get back down to the level of the first threshold. They have also been rumored to shopping Yoshida and Hicks. Its all laid out in the MLBTR article: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/11/latest-on-red-soxs-payroll-flexibility.html
  12. Chembry
    I think it makes Mountcastle expendable. Mayo to a lesser extent. I don’t think they trust Basallo behind the plate full time yet. My guess is that the O’s use Adley as primary C, Basallo as a primary DH and backup both C and 1B. Mayo will also back up both 1B and 3B with Westburg as the primary 3B.
  13. Chembry
    https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/12/twins-exploring-mid-tier-first-base-market.html#comments
  14. Chembry
    I am torn on Mayo. He has struggled, but showed a bit more late in the season last year. He could be turning a corner. His power seems to be real! He would cost a significant more than Mountcastle.
  15. Chembry
    Just saw that the Twins are getting 17 year old DSL catcher Miguel Caraballo...
  16. Chembry
    Interesting...
  17. Chembry
    Yes
  18. Chembry
    Double post
  19. Chembry
    I don't think it's impossible that they try to pass Alex Jackson through waivers. Susac has also played 1 game at 1B...I laugh at that, but we don't know if the Twins plan to try platoon him at 1B...Or they may very well trade Jeffers or try Jeffers at 1B. I like the pick though.
  20. Chembry
    Who knows...I don't think anything would surprise me at this point.
  21. Chembry
    @bunsen82 You got your wish! Twins selected Daniel Susac in the 1st round
  22. Chembry
    Kind of a curious signing, but good for them. They have Westburg (3B), Mayo (1B/3B), Basallo (C/1B), Mountcastle (1B), and now Alonso who will all be competing for ABs. They already extended Basallo so he will probably be the primary DH and back up Adley. Mayo/Westburg will probably platoon at 3B. Theoretically, that leave Mountcastle without a job. He may be a trade target for the Twins? Is he better than currently available free agents? His projected Arb 3 is $7.8M and only under team control for 1 year. Career numbers are similar to Lowe.
  23. Chembry
    I would be ok with Mountcastle. He is decent both defensively and offensively, Shouldn't cost much too much to acquire. But he is only under team control for 1 year. Something to keep in mind.
  24. Chembry
    Alonso to the O's on a 5/$155M https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/12/orioles-finalizing-deal-with-pete-alonso.html
  25. Chembry
    Birdsell is also interesting, but he won't see action in 2026. He has to stick on the 40man for 90 days to meet the rule 5 requirement, if he isn't going to pitch in 2026. On the position side TJ Rumfield (1B) is also worth a look. TD also identified him as a potential candidate. In 250g at AAA he has hit .288/.372/.453/.826 OPS/31 HR. Baseball America also selected Rumfield as one of the position players to watch, along with Susac and many others. But, the Twins don't have an open 40man spot. Let's see if they clear any space prior to the draft today.
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