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big dog

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Everything posted by big dog

  1. big dog
    Just looked at the numbers as of today. The Twins are now 11th in Runs per Game, so a couple of teams just above them must have had low scores last night. It is an extremely small gap among a large number of teams. They are currently at 4.563. Moving to fifth would now require 4.688, which would be another 12 runs, or 0.125 runs per game. That's an extremely tiny number to try and attribute to one or two specific reasons, given everything that factors into turning OPS into runs. I didn't do an innings adjustment, The Twins have played fewer extra inning games, so have fewer innings (they have 7 extras, league average is 8.5), but the ghost runners increase the number of runs scored per inning, so that's probably a net disadvantage for their stat. Does 12 more runs over 96 games matter? Mostly in one-run games, unless you have one of those games where Mickey Hatcher gets thrown out on the bases 3 times (that happened, right?). The Twins are 15-13 in one-run games, a .536 winning percentage that is just barely below their season winning percentage. It is better than some of the teams fighting for playoff spots (Tampa Bay, Boston, Philadelphia, St Louis, LA Dodgers, and SF Giants) and worse than the others, most of whom (other than Cleveland and Chicago) have better overall winning percentages than the Twins. I guess my takeaway, and yours could be completely different, from this statistical wool-gathering is that - it is unlikely anyone can find a particular reason to explain the run shortfall, at least any better than the vagaries of probability suggest; and - if you could find it, and you could fix it, getting another 0.125 runs per game isn't likely to add any wins, unless you could get them all in the bottom of the ninth and come from behind. Which I encourage this team to do, wholeheartedly. I also encourage Miguel Sano to grab the DH slot and catch fire. That could help a lot. Thanks for raising the question, TwinsData, I've enjoyed thinking about it.
  2. big dog
    Those are the odds as of 7/18. Since then, the Twins have picked up a game on the White Sox and 1.5 on the Guardians. So that's a good thing. My hot take is that I really don't care what a "rival official", whatever that is, tells Ken Rosenthal. Is it a rival trying to get the Twins to overpay to get someone from their team? A rival official who wants to feel important? Someone who got a phone call at an inopportune time and just wanted to say something quick to get off the phone without being rude? Too much noise, not enough signal. If I were a betting man, my most likely bet would be "someone other than the Twins" and my second-most likely bet would be "the Twins". Which is a terrible way to try and make money, kids, remember that gambling always favors the house. But if I had to pick a team right now, I'd pick the Twins. The White Sox seem the least likely to me, despite what seems like a loaded roster.
  3. big dog
    I'll just toss out that if everyone misinterprets what the writer believes s/he said, it might not entirely be the fault of the readers.
  4. big dog
    Agreed. Standard errors would shed some light on that, though only in a probabilistic sense.
  5. big dog
    What is the standard error in runs scored per game? Is that a meaningful difference, statistically?
  6. big dog
    I’m not disappointed in the lack of lumbering dh-types so far either.
  7. big dog
    I remember being so relieved to get rid of Lynn that getting players back was just a bonus. He did eventually get out of his funk, but I believe we only had him on a one-year so see ya.
  8. big dog
    I really thought Littel was going to be good. He had a good year last year with the Giants but this year is not going well.
  9. big dog
    Draft-and-trade isn’t possible with these picks, right? I don’t see any other way he falls to 8, but stranger things have happened. Would love to have him.
  10. big dog
    When will the first big trade (Twins or anyone) happen? Gotta think the All-Star break is going to have some significant news. Will anything happen before then? Someone set up a betting line here and let's get some action going...
  11. big dog
    That’s a nice dream, but arbitration and free agency make that awfully unlikely. Especially if the owners want to keep making their money.
  12. big dog
    Starting pitching apparently doesn't matter, then? Or has Berrios been god-like in 11 games and horrible in 5 games? I don't think either of those narratives is entirely true (especially the first one but also the second one).
  13. big dog
    Yikes. That's an interesting context.
  14. big dog
    As frustrated as I am with yesterday, the Sox always have the potential for a big offensive day. They also have a bullpen that is much stronger than ours, with Hendricks back. Ryan did not look sharp. We fought hard, it could have worked, it didn't, and we took 2 out of 3 in their park. I'll take it.
  15. big dog
    Twins are 4-1 in July. Looking good!
  16. big dog
    Because he can't drive 55?
  17. big dog
    I was at the Kernels game on Friday when Nigro pitched. We were in the bleachers and the PA and electronic scoreboard were way too busy with promotions and youtube clips to announce new pitchers. I saw a new pitcher throw this blooper of an off-speed pitch, almost an eephus, and thought "who's the position player pitching now?". Before I could look up the number he blazed in a fastball. I was immediately confused as to whether it was a position player or a reliever. Pretty impressive stuff, with one of the widest ranges in velocity that I've ever seen. The Kernels came back in the top of the ninth- the game ended with the tying run at the plate. I was thinking- wow, if they go ahead here and win, a catcher is going to get his first professional victory as a pitcher. How many times has that ever happened?? That's just idle pondering, not a serious question BTW.
  18. big dog
    I was at the Kernels game. The T-Rs took out their starter in the fifth inning. His team had scored 8 runs in the first, he had given up ZERO HITS, and he didn't get the W. The walks and HBP were astonishing, It was like watching a little league game. I believe the Kernels had 6 runs and 2 hits at one point. And despite having the catcher pitch (incredible changeups, BTW), they still managed to have the tying run at the plate in the ninth inning. The all-you-can-eat tropical food buffet for Margaritaville Night was good- not great, but good. Very depressed that the beer you could get with the two drink coupons was either Miller Light or Coors Lite, which does not qualify as beer anywhere but wedding receptions. Fun game, great atmosphere, nice fireworks. Catch a game if you are in Appleton, WI looking for something to do. Big Dog reporting.
  19. big dog
    Trade Sano, sure. Probably for an A-ball medium prospect. Trade Kepler, worth discussing, though a Larnach/Celestino (or Gordon)/Kiriloff outfield seems like quite a downgrade on the days Buxton is out. Assuming Correa's contract even allows him to be traded, and assuming we had anyone else who could play a great shortstop and hit 300 or so, trading him now would probably end all hope of ever getting a big-time free agent here. What kind of signal does this send to the future marketplace? Other than those small concerns, I have no problem with it.
  20. big dog
    The Twins were 6-14 with runners in scoring position. The Yankees were 0-2. Wow.
  21. big dog
    And Garver's only caught 14 games so far, Jeffers would be the primary catcher anyway.
  22. big dog
    He hit somewhat better before he was traded to the Rays, where he hit worse when continued at High-A and did nothing when promoted to AA. He was better last year with the Twins, too. If he has a ton of power potential, two organizations have failed to unlock it.
  23. big dog
    Yet another case of an ex-Twin having a mediocre season playing his brains out against us. See Schoop, Jonathan. Maybe if people played their hardest all the time...
  24. big dog
    None of these things are unreasonable. However, if the goal is to win a playoff series, then getting 85 wins by playing .500 the rest of the year and sneaking into the third wild card spot is not very reassuring. We need the health to get better and stay better, we need to play more consistently, and we need another arm to emerge in the bullpen as a reliable major league reliever. Two would be nice.
  25. big dog
    Well, this hasn't aged very well.
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