big dog

Big Friday night for the pitching prospects with Jordy Blaze, Varland, Povich, and Hajiar all going. Let's hope for some strong performances.

I remember when the Twins went 3-3 against Baltimore and Seattle and we all thought it was a huge lost opportunity, because they had bad records. Those games happened not long before both teams went completely wild- looking back, those were better games than we thought. I don't worry too much about strength of schedule going forward, things change. And as others have said, acquisitions made or not made could be pretty important. Or, as is often the case, they could seem important and not work out. The White Sox looked to be unstoppable last year when they traded for Kimbrel, who was nearly untouchable that year with the Cubs and a dumpster fire with the Sox. I hope the Twins get a couple more players, but that doesn't mean it will work out.

10 runs for one win- I could see that, averaging over a whole bunch of games and teams. It would be interesting to note what that statistic does and doesn't control for, too. I assume that is for a team with an average pitching staff? I wonder if team ERA is used when people estimate number of wins from runs. I was using my numbers from today, which says 12 missing runs (just because the rank for runs moves around a bit depending on how much other teams scored since it is so similar, and over 96 games a little counts for a lot). If I take that statistic and move forward, we have 66 games left, so at the same pace it equals 8.25 runs over the rest of the season. If we use the figure of 18 runs, then it is a healthier 12.375 additional runs. So I might be surprised, but I'm guessing the statistical variation in this is pretty huge so I still doubt there is anything here that isn't swamped by luck. One win by getting 10 more runs, two wins by having a ball hit an outfielder's glove in play and bounce over the fence and a run scoring on a bad call when the other team had used its challenge up. I will take any and all wins, whatever the source.

Just looked at the numbers as of today. The Twins are now 11th in Runs per Game, so a couple of teams just above them must have had low scores last night. It is an extremely small gap among a large number of teams. They are currently at 4.563. Moving to fifth would now require 4.688, which would be another 12 runs, or 0.125 runs per game. That's an extremely tiny number to try and attribute to one or two specific reasons, given everything that factors into turning OPS into runs. I didn't do an innings adjustment, The Twins have played fewer extra inning games, so have fewer innings (they have 7 extras, league average is 8.5), but the ghost runners increase the number of runs scored per inning, so that's probably a net disadvantage for their stat. Does 12 more runs over 96 games matter? Mostly in one-run games, unless you have one of those games where Mickey Hatcher gets thrown out on the bases 3 times (that happened, right?). The Twins are 15-13 in one-run games, a .536 winning percentage that is just barely below their season winning percentage. It is better than some of the teams fighting for playoff spots (Tampa Bay, Boston, Philadelphia, St Louis, LA Dodgers, and SF Giants) and worse than the others, most of whom (other than Cleveland and Chicago) have better overall winning percentages than the Twins. I guess my takeaway, and yours could be completely different, from this statistical wool-gathering is that - it is unlikely anyone can find a particular reason to explain the run shortfall, at least any better than the vagaries of probability suggest; and - if you could find it, and you could fix it, getting another 0.125 runs per game isn't likely to add any wins, unless you could get them all in the bottom of the ninth and come from behind. Which I encourage this team to do, wholeheartedly. I also encourage Miguel Sano to grab the DH slot and catch fire. That could help a lot. Thanks for raising the question, TwinsData, I've enjoyed thinking about it.

Those are the odds as of 7/18. Since then, the Twins have picked up a game on the White Sox and 1.5 on the Guardians. So that's a good thing. My hot take is that I really don't care what a "rival official", whatever that is, tells Ken Rosenthal. Is it a rival trying to get the Twins to overpay to get someone from their team? A rival official who wants to feel important? Someone who got a phone call at an inopportune time and just wanted to say something quick to get off the phone without being rude? Too much noise, not enough signal. If I were a betting man, my most likely bet would be "someone other than the Twins" and my second-most likely bet would be "the Twins". Which is a terrible way to try and make money, kids, remember that gambling always favors the house. But if I had to pick a team right now, I'd pick the Twins. The White Sox seem the least likely to me, despite what seems like a loaded roster.

I'll just toss out that if everyone misinterprets what the writer believes s/he said, it might not entirely be the fault of the readers.

Agreed. Standard errors would shed some light on that, though only in a probabilistic sense.

What is the standard error in runs scored per game? Is that a meaningful difference, statistically?

I’m not disappointed in the lack of lumbering dh-types so far either.

I remember being so relieved to get rid of Lynn that getting players back was just a bonus. He did eventually get out of his funk, but I believe we only had him on a one-year so see ya.

I really thought Littel was going to be good. He had a good year last year with the Giants but this year is not going well.

Draft-and-trade isn’t possible with these picks, right? I don’t see any other way he falls to 8, but stranger things have happened. Would love to have him.

When will the first big trade (Twins or anyone) happen? Gotta think the All-Star break is going to have some significant news. Will anything happen before then? Someone set up a betting line here and let's get some action going...

That’s a nice dream, but arbitration and free agency make that awfully unlikely. Especially if the owners want to keep making their money.

Starting pitching apparently doesn't matter, then? Or has Berrios been god-like in 11 games and horrible in 5 games? I don't think either of those narratives is entirely true (especially the first one but also the second one).

Yikes. That's an interesting context.

As frustrated as I am with yesterday, the Sox always have the potential for a big offensive day. They also have a bullpen that is much stronger than ours, with Hendricks back. Ryan did not look sharp. We fought hard, it could have worked, it didn't, and we took 2 out of 3 in their park. I'll take it.

Twins are 4-1 in July. Looking good!

Because he can't drive 55?

I was at the Kernels game on Friday when Nigro pitched. We were in the bleachers and the PA and electronic scoreboard were way too busy with promotions and youtube clips to announce new pitchers. I saw a new pitcher throw this blooper of an off-speed pitch, almost an eephus, and thought "who's the position player pitching now?". Before I could look up the number he blazed in a fastball. I was immediately confused as to whether it was a position player or a reliever. Pretty impressive stuff, with one of the widest ranges in velocity that I've ever seen. The Kernels came back in the top of the ninth- the game ended with the tying run at the plate. I was thinking- wow, if they go ahead here and win, a catcher is going to get his first professional victory as a pitcher. How many times has that ever happened?? That's just idle pondering, not a serious question BTW.

I was at the Kernels game. The T-Rs took out their starter in the fifth inning. His team had scored 8 runs in the first, he had given up ZERO HITS, and he didn't get the W. The walks and HBP were astonishing, It was like watching a little league game. I believe the Kernels had 6 runs and 2 hits at one point. And despite having the catcher pitch (incredible changeups, BTW), they still managed to have the tying run at the plate in the ninth inning. The all-you-can-eat tropical food buffet for Margaritaville Night was good- not great, but good. Very depressed that the beer you could get with the two drink coupons was either Miller Light or Coors Lite, which does not qualify as beer anywhere but wedding receptions. Fun game, great atmosphere, nice fireworks. Catch a game if you are in Appleton, WI looking for something to do. Big Dog reporting.

Trade Sano, sure. Probably for an A-ball medium prospect. Trade Kepler, worth discussing, though a Larnach/Celestino (or Gordon)/Kiriloff outfield seems like quite a downgrade on the days Buxton is out. Assuming Correa's contract even allows him to be traded, and assuming we had anyone else who could play a great shortstop and hit 300 or so, trading him now would probably end all hope of ever getting a big-time free agent here. What kind of signal does this send to the future marketplace? Other than those small concerns, I have no problem with it.

The Twins were 6-14 with runners in scoring position. The Yankees were 0-2. Wow.

And Garver's only caught 14 games so far, Jeffers would be the primary catcher anyway.

He hit somewhat better before he was traded to the Rays, where he hit worse when continued at High-A and did nothing when promoted to AA. He was better last year with the Twins, too. If he has a ton of power potential, two organizations have failed to unlock it.