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big dog

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Everything posted by big dog

  1. big dog
    Dare we say...he's in the best shape of his life? Haven't heard that too much this spring.
  2. big dog
    Agreed to the above sentiments. It's not like Rooker is a replacement-level vet the team is using to hold the spot for a month. He's a (somewhat) young guy with a chance to really help the team going forward, and he deserves a shot. This is a reasonable choice.
  3. big dog
    If Buck can stay on the field he's the choice, but I don't know how much I would bet on that. Jiminez in LF reminds me of Canseco back when I used to sit in the outfield in Oakland. You wonder if he's just that bad or if he's not even trying. He's ahead of Rooker, but there will be some cheap hits and extra bases at his expense. I keep waiting for Anderson to quit hitting but it isn't happening so far. His defense is suprisingly uneven- this might be a good year to compare what's better, the great-field (we hope) and adequate-hitting shortstop vs. the polar opposite. Great discussion of bench strength. I hadn't realized the difference, which I agree strongly favors the Twins. Then there's the LaRussa factor...at best I think he will be an average manager overall. We'll see.
  4. big dog
    Carew was a great, great hitter of course, but no one ever watched him in the field to see what magical play he would make next. He was fun on the bases, too. He and Kirby are in the conversation, but man, speed is magical and he's way ahead of them. OK, to be fair, he's way ahead of everyone.
  5. big dog
    No matter what I'm doing while the game is on, I stop when Byron is at bat. Anything hit to center field I look up to see what's going to happen. He's certainly the most exciting Twin I've watched in 50 years of serious fandom. I hope he can finally play a full season. Man do I hope that.
  6. big dog
    That highlight reel was incredible. Even flashes of that would be an enormous upgrade. Very excited to see him take the field.
  7. big dog
    Yes, Ashbury is correct- I should have said highly predictable outcomes for individual cases in the short term are expensive to insure. The problem of adverse selection is huge here (insurance companies wouldn't play on a level field with respect to information about risks specific to that individual), and you couldn't really build a representative pool of "players with calf injuries" or "twenty-three-year-old MLB pitchers with a good slider and Tommy John surgery" or whatever. Insurance companies can also offload some of the risk through re-insurance, effectively sharing the policy with other firms (laying off some bets, as it were). That also works better (or only really works) when the risks are predictable for the insurance companies, and diversified across multiple policies. It might be better for the Twins to make some side bets on lines like the over/under that Donaldson spends X days on the injured list (or whatever it's called now).
  8. big dog
    Insurance for highly predictable outcomes tends to be either very expensive or impossible to purchase. Highly predictable outcomes are a hard way for insurers to make money otherwise. Yes, I recognize that "death" is highly predictable and lots of insurers make lots of money with life insurance. However, "date of death" is not highly predictable, except as an average for large groups of people.
  9. big dog
    Thanks, that was very fun.
  10. big dog
    We need more catcher-cam. Wow.
  11. big dog
    So...who do we have in camp whose name is a version of Ryan? That's where my money goes. Should have been Royce. What about Gryfan Jax?
  12. big dog
    Hopefully Astudillo is with the Saints.
  13. big dog
    True, although Dozier might wish he'd signed one like that a couple years ago. I guess he got a ring, though.
  14. big dog
    I wonder if the players have been thinking about what they got in the last negotiation in exchange for allowing the change to service time rules. They opened the door to this, it shouldn't have been too hard to predict what the owners would do. What are they going to give up to help out future generations whose service time could be manipulated?
  15. big dog
    Wow, I just had a flashback to Calvin Griffith at the Waseca Lions Club!
  16. big dog
    It will be interesting to see how much time Goodrum gets with Gardy now retired. He certainly did better in Detroit than I expected. Agreed on Anderson- doesn't look that good but somehow it all works, at least so far. Not a very strong group overall, that's for sure. Should be a solid edge for the Twins, especially if our guy can lay off those bad pitches a little more.
  17. big dog
    Donaldson has a chance to be a B+. He also has a chance to spend a hundred games unable to play in the field. Then what- Arreaz? Not sure he has the arm for the position, at least not as a long-term fill-in. Blankenhorn? Astudillo? If Donaldson stays reasonably healthy, we're in great shape. I think that for the division as a whole, catcher is stronger than 3B, but who knows. Grandal actually scares me more than Moncada, in part because he seems like that really solid veteran presence (and he's a much better fielder at his position, at least so far). Very worried about the Sox...
  18. big dog
    This certainly has the potential to be a much-improved division over the one the Twins won the last couple of years. Should be an exciting season. It will be interesting to see the LaRussa/youngsters combination in action. I know some people are saying LaRussa won't adjust to new ways to play the game, but he invented the new closer role with Eckersley and somehow was able to not notice Canseco's advocacy of new training regimes in the clubhouse, so he ought to be able to adapt to bat flips.
  19. big dog
    Arraez gets most of the starts until Kirilloff is up, with Rooker getting the rest. Cave for pinch-running, late game defense for Rooker. Once AK is up (can he have #47?) then...not sure. I'd like to see Rooker get a bunch of ABs and see how it goes. I sure liked what I saw in his tiny sample last summer.
  20. big dog
    I find myself wondering how many teams Tatis will play for during this contract. I think three. Doesn't make it a bad deal, but it does make me think there ought to be a way to structure it differently that would work better than 14 years. Moving that contract is going to take a lot of future time and energy, and even if he's worth the money will one team be able to carry that for 14 consecutive years? Maybe, but I'll bet not. Maybe in ten years every better than average player will make $25 million and this won't be anything unusual.
  21. big dog
    Waiter? I'll have whatever he's drinking. Make it a double, please.
  22. big dog
    Dislike. Intensely. Go pick an orange.
  23. big dog
    What's up with Clippard? I thought he did a good job last year and expected the Twins to re-sign him. Now he's got nothing on 2/16? I don't get it.
  24. big dog
    Nice write-up. Quick quibble: born June of 1999 should make him age 21 now, turning 22 this summer, not 23. Unless I'm missing something. Good luck to him!
  25. big dog
    Andrew Albers is 35 and came up 7 years ago. Holy crap do I feel old.
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