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MGX

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Everything posted by MGX

  1. MGX
    As many have said above this would be a huge overpay for the Twins. I like Luzardo & he would be nice for the Twins, but his BTV value is inflated IMO. The Twins would be much better off keeping Polanco, Kepler, Lee & Rodriguez & signing an FA pitcher like Clevinger. Jesus Luzardo 2023 - 3.58 ERA - 1.215 WHIP - HR/9 - 1.1 Career - 4.18 ERA - 1.253 WHIP - HR/9 1.3 Mike Clevinger (Fangraphs estimates 2yrs/24 million) 2023 - 3.77 ERA - 1.226 WHIP - HR/9 - 1.1 Career - 3.45 ERA - 1.194 WHIP - HR/9 - 1.1 How much incremental value does Luzardo add over a mid-level FA like Clevinger? A little, but he doesn't make our team that much better when compared to some of the mid-level FA SP's we could sign. If you create a hole in RF that is unlikely to be filled in via FA or trade the team is in worse shape. I know he's under control for multiple years, but to me that isn't as important. We have prospects developing & there are always FA SP's available. In 2023 Sonny Gray was one of the best SP's in MLB & yet the Twins were 1 game under .500 at the end of June. I'm not sold at all that Luzardo can pitch even as effectively as Gray did last year. The primary reason the Twins played much better from July 1st through the end of the year was the development of the young core of position players & Kepler's big 2nd half.
  2. MGX
    Agree with this & would add that the idea to defer the money came from Ohtani & his representatives. Every team in baseball wanted to add Ohtani - he comes to the Dodgers with a deal that is clearly within the rules & the Dodgers decide it works for them. Are they supposed to say no to that?
  3. MGX
    Falvey can refer to the SSS of the playoffs if he wants. All he needs to do is look at his own team from last year to see a different view... In the first 83 games last year our lineup featured more all or nothing hitters like Gallo 6.3% HR rate/42.8% K rate (61 of his 111 games played & most of his FT games) & Buxton 4.9% HR rate/31.4% K rate(65 of his 85 games & again most of his FT games). In those 83 games we scored 353 runs or an average of 4.25 runs/game. In the last 79 games players like Kepler 4.9% HR rate/21.6% K rate (74 of his 130 games played) & Royce Lewis 6.3% HR rate/23% K rate (33 of his 58 games). In those 79 games we scored 427 runs or an average of 5.4 runs/game. Also, didn't Royce Lewis speak out against the all or nothing approach soon after the sweep in Atlanta? Someone can correct if I'm wrong on that. This team has potential to score a lot of runs if we can focus a bit more on putting the ball in play. The HR's will come without focusing on them & when they do there is a better chance of having people on base. As was pointed out above having a balanced lineup is beneficial.
  4. MGX
    I think Garver would be a great fit & have said so in other posts, but didn't have any information on what he would cost. For me 10 mil+ per on a multi year deal for someone that would be an insurance/role player doesn't work. We can spend that money on bigger needs.
  5. MGX
    I know we use BTV as a reference because it's what's available. The values do seem inaccurate as often as not. With that said these two teams seem to line up well. Trade #1 is not a good fit for the Twins - trading our two starting corner OF's would leave us with holes in terms of productivity that will be very difficult to fill. Trade #2 is the best fit the M's can use Polanco to help their team now & the potential of having E-Rod & J-Rod in the OF together I imagine would be enticing for them. How much do the Twins value E-Rod will determine if it works the Twins. Trade #3 while I like Gilbert I hope the Twins won't consider trading Julien & Lee for one pitcher. You can't count on pitchers being healthy so trading away that much talent for a pitcher is a huge risk IMO. I'd prefer the FA route for the Twins. We have a good young core right now & I hope they keep them together so we can see what they develop into. I like the following... 1 mid level SP - Someone like - Montas or Clevinger 1-2 BP arms - J. Hicks & R. Stephenson would be my preference, but there are other options 1 OF - Taylor, Kiermaier or Bader 1 - 1B - Garver might be a good fit here - good offensive player throughout his career can 1B & gives us a 3rd C. These should all be reasonably priced options & would fill in our most pressing needs without tapping into our young core.
  6. MGX
    I like option #1 & taking chance on Manoah. Swanson is a good RP, but we can find FA's to help the bullpen & keep Max in RF.
  7. MGX
    So they hang up the phone, then move on. It's not like Luzardo is a must have for the Twins.
  8. MGX
    My preference is keeping Jeffers, Kiriloff, Julien, Lewis, Correa & Wallner to let them develop & play together this season. We can sign a mid-level SP (Montas, Lorenzen or Clevinger) & another arm or two (J Hicks & R Stephenson) in the bullpen to address pitching. Even if we traded for Luzardo our starting staff won't be as good as it was in '23. With how good those starters were through the end of June we were still 1 game under .500 because of our offense. Our offense was better from July to the end of the year thanks to the contributions of our younger players & Kepler's great 2nd half. For me this team needs to keep those younger players together & only move Kepler in a deal that is too good to turn down.
  9. MGX
    There is no way I'd trade Julien & Jeffers for Luzardo. If that is the ask then I hope the Twins move on.
  10. MGX
    My Twins Holiday FA wish list... One of the following SP's... Frankie Montas Michael Lorenzen Mike Clevinger At least one & if possible both of the following RP's... Jordan Hicks Robert Stephenson I'm not concerned with adding a bat. With that said if a 1 year deal were possible with Mitch Garver that could be useful. He's been a well above average bat in his career, can play 1b & give us a 3rd C. Would be fine with them just going with what we have too. Who knows if the Twins will do anything in the FA market, but all of these players should be reasonably priced & provide something this team needs. Most importantly, this would keep us from trading away top prospects for pitching. If we get the right offer for Polanco or Kepler we can still make a trade for something of value. If we did these moves our rotation would be solid & our bullpen would have the potential to be dominant. Combine that with an effective offense that is young & has the potential to get even better & we may have something. I like this strategy better than overpaying for an "Ace" or even a #2 SP. If you look back at past playoffs any pitcher can get hit & any pitcher can come up with a big game. Let me know your thoughts & your FA wish list below.
  11. MGX
    This is funny. Priester was hammered at the MLB level last year throughout the season. Not sure where that writer saw supposed improvement - July - 9.19 ERA, August - 9.00 ERA & Sept/Oct - 5.91 ERA. He's never had any sort of dominance in the minors at any level to make anyone think those numbers are a fluke. He's young so he still has time to improve, but we have those types of pitchers in our system already. Trading Polanco or Kepler for another guy who might improve isn't at all interesting to me. Trading Polanco for this guy would be a mistake, trading Kepler for him is ridiculous & and both is laughable.
  12. MGX
    I like Luzardo a little, but hope the Twins aren't willing to trade what is being mentioned in this thread. I don't see what suggests he'll be better than Joe Ryan... Ryan - 335 IP - 1.109 WHIP - 4.05 ERA - 38.1% Hard hit rate - 4.1% HR rate Luzardo - 445 IP - 1,253 WHIP - 4,18 ERA - 39% Hard hit rate - 3.3% HR rate If someone like this costs us our starting 2b & C then I hope the Twins look elsewhere. Where would the Twins have been without the contributions of Jeffers & Julien last year? We saw that in the 1st half last year with Gray pitching like a Cy Young winner & we were still a game under .500 at the end of June. I want the Twins to add the best SP they can, but we need offense too. That's why I wish they were involved in the FA market, but it doesn't look like that is going to happen.
  13. MGX

    Royal Makeover

    MGX replied to Brandon's topic in Other Baseball

    I like the moves from both the Tigers & Royals - they're trying to compete. That's what teams should do. Last year in the pre-season people gave the Marlins zero chance of finishing in the top 3 in the NL East & making the playoffs, yet that's what they did. The D-Backs were given about the same chance of making the playoffs & they made the World Series. I remember a post on here suggesting we could get Gallen because the D-Backs weren't in a position to contend. The Reds fell a little short of the playoffs, but no one expected them to be a .500 team. As was pointed out above we should also remember who the Twins were last year, an 87 win team who was 1 game under .500 at the end of June (41-42). As a Twins fan I don't want to take anything away from what was accomplished last season, it was great watching them win a playoff series. We need to keep in mind that while the Tigers & Royals have made additions to make there teams making them better we only have subtractions, including a big one with no indication that anything will be done about it. We should feel good about the fact we were 46-33 from July on. We should also look at Detroit who was 43-38 during the same time frame & now they've made their team better & again we've done nothing to fill the holes FA has created on our roster. I hope the Twins younger core can improve this year because we're going to need it.
  14. MGX
    He should be available for trade if the return justifies it. Seattle could use both Polanco & Kepler & has a lot of young talented pitching. In the right deal I'd trade either or both if needed. I'd rather trade Kepler in a deal that gets us a quality SP & give Larnach another chance than go with with our rotation as it stands & have Max in RF. On the other hand if we don't get the right offer for either Kepler or Polanco then keep them both as they're both productive players.
  15. MGX
    Agree 100% with this post, if they ever adopt a salary cap I certainly hope it comes with with a healthy salary floor. The second point on being more 'have-nots' than 'haves is right on the money as well. The 'have-nots' are content with the way things are because of how much money they make.
  16. MGX
    For me the only one of those options to consider is Farmer in a deal for Taylor. I think the Twins would need a little more to make this deal work though. The other options I wouldn't want the Twins to do. We should trade Polanco if & only if he is part of a deal that gets us a quality SP. I'd plan to have Julien as my starting 2B unless we get an offer that can't be refused.
  17. MGX
    To each their own I guess - The offensive production for Verdugo has declined every year since his career year in 2020 & all of those seasons in a hitter's park. Meanwhile, Kepler has had some ups & downs while bouncing back to produce an excellent year in 2023. Defensively, Verdugo has typically been below average while Kepler has been solidly above average. The original comparison is of some value as they're similar players, but to me Kepler is currently more valuable.
  18. MGX
    At the salary he will get, No thanks. As others have mentioned the #1 priority should be a SP.
  19. MGX
    After seeing interviews with Lopez after the trade I became a fan for the reasons you describe. Enjoyed the write up!
  20. MGX
    Unreal
  21. MGX
    I like the way your thinking!
  22. MGX
    Yes!!!!!
  23. MGX
    Believe!!!
  24. MGX
    In our half of the inning, if we get someone on in front of Royce it will get loud.
  25. MGX
    Believe!!! - In spite of the awful ump.
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