MGX

Interesting, overall, the odds seems reasonable. IMO the AL Central is a better division this year & I expect improvement from Kansas City, Cleveland & especially Detroit. Detroit had a similar season to the Twins last year... At the end of July the Twins were 41-42 & the Tigers were 35-46. Both teams played much better over the final 3 months the Twins 46-33 & the Tigers 43-38. The Twins will need to improve from within as we haven't added much to our roster & both the Royals & Tigers have. The good news is our young core group of position players have the talent to do that along with a bounce back season from Correa & Buxton (he may only play 80 games, but if he hits closer to his career norms that would be a boost) could make this a very good offensive team. With Gray gone our starting pitching isn't likely to be as good, but a much better offense & hopefully an improved bullpen (may be our biggest question mark to start) can get us to another title.

Of course Arraez would be a great add for the Twins, there isn't a team in the league couldn't use his bat. The question is what would he cost? I suspect the Marlins would expect a return bigger than the one they gave to get him & that likely wouldn't work for the Twins.

Thanks for the writeup it's interesting to see where Ryan & Ober rank compared starting pitchers viewed as trade targets. It also highlights the fact that needing "an Ace" to win in the playoffs is a myth. If you have a strong position player group & a strong bullpen with solid starters that is a recipe for success. IMO the rotation should be Lopez, Ryan & Ober & then add a depth starter to join Paddack & Varland. If we go this route the pitcher can be added via free agency or a trade with a more reasonable cost. This allows us to keep our young core of position players to develop.

He started using a 3rd pitch last year, a sweeper.

I really like Hicks, wish the Twins would have signed him first. He added a 3rd pitch last year ( a sweeper to go with his 4 -seamer & sinker) & had great results down the stretch with Toronto. His BB/9 was down 3 while with the Jays. Throughout his career so far he has consistently generated a lot of ground balls resulting in an excellent .5 HR/9. His top tier stuff makes it very hard to get hits(6.8/9). Now if he starts limiting BB's as he did at the end of last year it could be a huge breakout for him.

Julien 2023 0 OAA at 2b, including +5 OAA over the last 3 months of the season Polanco 2021 -2 OAA at 2b, 2022 -9 OAA at 2b & 2023 -5 OAA at 2b. I'm not sure why you think Polanco is the better defensive 2b.

I see this stated a lot on this site & it may be true. Just curious if anyone has looked at actual trades (not BTV) & found this to be true? I'm not sure either way, just curious.

I wouldn't look to trade either one unless there is an overwhelming offer. In your writeup on Julien you mention his OAA at 2b as -3. I believe this is incorrect, he finished at 0 OAA. In fact the last three months of the season he posted +5 OAA after having a rough start the first three months.

Fair points, agree with most of what you said. Where I differ is in his value even with the control problems. In 2022 his walk rate was high at 11.2 % & yet he proved to be very effective over 14 starts. In 2023 with the 15.2% BB rate his ERA was almost identical to Maeda & we gave him 20 starts last year so I think Cabrera would be a boost to our rotation. I agree with you it would be nice to get a pitcher who is a legit Cy Young candidate to replace Sonny, but that appears unlikely.

I agree on the concerns with Cabrera, but if we can make a deal straight up for Polanco or something close to it the Twins should consider it. Initially, Cabrera adds rotation depth with a lot of upside(if his control improves). That is exactly what we need for '24 - added depth in the rotation. As you pointed out he had a 15.2% walk rate & yet still pitched to a respectable 4.24 ERA. His career walk rate has been 14% & yet his career ERA is 4.01 so he has been a productive starter in spite of the high walk rate. There is some serious potential there & if he doesn't improve the control he's proven he can still be effective or possibly moved to the BP eventually. He is inexpensive salary wise & in trade value, a great fit for our situation. In other words the ideal buy low player with high end potential. We're not getting a SP at the level of Snell or Montgomery in FA's because of the salary they will command & in trade a Gilbert, Kirby or Luzardo are unlikely to be traded & if they are the trade cost will be substantial.

I'm very high on Julien's potential. As noted above he has tremendous discipline, but needs to improve with two strikes & hitting LHP. After being labeled as a bat only or bat first player & then seeing the vast improvement with his play at 2B last year (1st 3 months -5 OAA & last three months +5 OAA) I'm confident he will improve the areas noted & become even a better hitter. He looks like a top 3 hitter in our lineup & appears to be past the initial lack of comfort & feel for playing 2B.

Payroll really shouldn't be an issue. We're already down quite a bit from last year & even a signing or two in that range wouldn't get us back to last years level. Additionally, if we do trade Polanco for say prospects that just about pays for Clevinger's salary right there.

I like both, with that said IMO Luzardo's value is inflated on the trade values site so I'd prefer the Twins to go after Cabrera.

As many have said above this would be a huge overpay for the Twins. I like Luzardo & he would be nice for the Twins, but his BTV value is inflated IMO. The Twins would be much better off keeping Polanco, Kepler, Lee & Rodriguez & signing an FA pitcher like Clevinger. Jesus Luzardo 2023 - 3.58 ERA - 1.215 WHIP - HR/9 - 1.1 Career - 4.18 ERA - 1.253 WHIP - HR/9 1.3 Mike Clevinger (Fangraphs estimates 2yrs/24 million) 2023 - 3.77 ERA - 1.226 WHIP - HR/9 - 1.1 Career - 3.45 ERA - 1.194 WHIP - HR/9 - 1.1 How much incremental value does Luzardo add over a mid-level FA like Clevinger? A little, but he doesn't make our team that much better when compared to some of the mid-level FA SP's we could sign. If you create a hole in RF that is unlikely to be filled in via FA or trade the team is in worse shape. I know he's under control for multiple years, but to me that isn't as important. We have prospects developing & there are always FA SP's available. In 2023 Sonny Gray was one of the best SP's in MLB & yet the Twins were 1 game under .500 at the end of June. I'm not sold at all that Luzardo can pitch even as effectively as Gray did last year. The primary reason the Twins played much better from July 1st through the end of the year was the development of the young core of position players & Kepler's big 2nd half.

Agree with this & would add that the idea to defer the money came from Ohtani & his representatives. Every team in baseball wanted to add Ohtani - he comes to the Dodgers with a deal that is clearly within the rules & the Dodgers decide it works for them. Are they supposed to say no to that?

Falvey can refer to the SSS of the playoffs if he wants. All he needs to do is look at his own team from last year to see a different view... In the first 83 games last year our lineup featured more all or nothing hitters like Gallo 6.3% HR rate/42.8% K rate (61 of his 111 games played & most of his FT games) & Buxton 4.9% HR rate/31.4% K rate(65 of his 85 games & again most of his FT games). In those 83 games we scored 353 runs or an average of 4.25 runs/game. In the last 79 games players like Kepler 4.9% HR rate/21.6% K rate (74 of his 130 games played) & Royce Lewis 6.3% HR rate/23% K rate (33 of his 58 games). In those 79 games we scored 427 runs or an average of 5.4 runs/game. Also, didn't Royce Lewis speak out against the all or nothing approach soon after the sweep in Atlanta? Someone can correct if I'm wrong on that. This team has potential to score a lot of runs if we can focus a bit more on putting the ball in play. The HR's will come without focusing on them & when they do there is a better chance of having people on base. As was pointed out above having a balanced lineup is beneficial.

I think Garver would be a great fit & have said so in other posts, but didn't have any information on what he would cost. For me 10 mil+ per on a multi year deal for someone that would be an insurance/role player doesn't work. We can spend that money on bigger needs.

I know we use BTV as a reference because it's what's available. The values do seem inaccurate as often as not. With that said these two teams seem to line up well. Trade #1 is not a good fit for the Twins - trading our two starting corner OF's would leave us with holes in terms of productivity that will be very difficult to fill. Trade #2 is the best fit the M's can use Polanco to help their team now & the potential of having E-Rod & J-Rod in the OF together I imagine would be enticing for them. How much do the Twins value E-Rod will determine if it works the Twins. Trade #3 while I like Gilbert I hope the Twins won't consider trading Julien & Lee for one pitcher. You can't count on pitchers being healthy so trading away that much talent for a pitcher is a huge risk IMO. I'd prefer the FA route for the Twins. We have a good young core right now & I hope they keep them together so we can see what they develop into. I like the following... 1 mid level SP - Someone like - Montas or Clevinger 1-2 BP arms - J. Hicks & R. Stephenson would be my preference, but there are other options 1 OF - Taylor, Kiermaier or Bader 1 - 1B - Garver might be a good fit here - good offensive player throughout his career can 1B & gives us a 3rd C. These should all be reasonably priced options & would fill in our most pressing needs without tapping into our young core.

I like option #1 & taking chance on Manoah. Swanson is a good RP, but we can find FA's to help the bullpen & keep Max in RF.

So they hang up the phone, then move on. It's not like Luzardo is a must have for the Twins.

My preference is keeping Jeffers, Kiriloff, Julien, Lewis, Correa & Wallner to let them develop & play together this season. We can sign a mid-level SP (Montas, Lorenzen or Clevinger) & another arm or two (J Hicks & R Stephenson) in the bullpen to address pitching. Even if we traded for Luzardo our starting staff won't be as good as it was in '23. With how good those starters were through the end of June we were still 1 game under .500 because of our offense. Our offense was better from July to the end of the year thanks to the contributions of our younger players & Kepler's great 2nd half. For me this team needs to keep those younger players together & only move Kepler in a deal that is too good to turn down.

There is no way I'd trade Julien & Jeffers for Luzardo. If that is the ask then I hope the Twins move on.

My Twins Holiday FA wish list... One of the following SP's... Frankie Montas Michael Lorenzen Mike Clevinger At least one & if possible both of the following RP's... Jordan Hicks Robert Stephenson I'm not concerned with adding a bat. With that said if a 1 year deal were possible with Mitch Garver that could be useful. He's been a well above average bat in his career, can play 1b & give us a 3rd C. Would be fine with them just going with what we have too. Who knows if the Twins will do anything in the FA market, but all of these players should be reasonably priced & provide something this team needs. Most importantly, this would keep us from trading away top prospects for pitching. If we get the right offer for Polanco or Kepler we can still make a trade for something of value. If we did these moves our rotation would be solid & our bullpen would have the potential to be dominant. Combine that with an effective offense that is young & has the potential to get even better & we may have something. I like this strategy better than overpaying for an "Ace" or even a #2 SP. If you look back at past playoffs any pitcher can get hit & any pitcher can come up with a big game. Let me know your thoughts & your FA wish list below.

This is funny. Priester was hammered at the MLB level last year throughout the season. Not sure where that writer saw supposed improvement - July - 9.19 ERA, August - 9.00 ERA & Sept/Oct - 5.91 ERA. He's never had any sort of dominance in the minors at any level to make anyone think those numbers are a fluke. He's young so he still has time to improve, but we have those types of pitchers in our system already. Trading Polanco or Kepler for another guy who might improve isn't at all interesting to me. Trading Polanco for this guy would be a mistake, trading Kepler for him is ridiculous & and both is laughable.

I like Luzardo a little, but hope the Twins aren't willing to trade what is being mentioned in this thread. I don't see what suggests he'll be better than Joe Ryan... Ryan - 335 IP - 1.109 WHIP - 4.05 ERA - 38.1% Hard hit rate - 4.1% HR rate Luzardo - 445 IP - 1,253 WHIP - 4,18 ERA - 39% Hard hit rate - 3.3% HR rate If someone like this costs us our starting 2b & C then I hope the Twins look elsewhere. Where would the Twins have been without the contributions of Jeffers & Julien last year? We saw that in the 1st half last year with Gray pitching like a Cy Young winner & we were still a game under .500 at the end of June. I want the Twins to add the best SP they can, but we need offense too. That's why I wish they were involved in the FA market, but it doesn't look like that is going to happen.