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MGX

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Everything posted by MGX

  1. MGX
    Outman's Spring training stats look nice - .318/.407/.591 with about 33% K rate - the problem is who has he been facing. If you use the Opponent quality metric on BBRef it looks like the opposing pitchers are slightly above AA level. We already knew Outman could hit AA pitching - his career AA slash - .293/.385/.539 with about a 33% K rate. I'm not sure how much has changed. I follow the Dodgers closely like the Twins & when he first came up in '23 he had a nice season, but the K rate was worrisome even back then. Since then when facing MLB pitching it's only gone up ('24 - 35.3 & in '25 - 42.6). Maybe he made some adjustments that can help, but I'm not sure to this point facing AA level pitching is offering much proof that has happened. I'd like to see him do well, but have a tough time buying it at this point. Combine that with a very crowded OF picture thanks to poor roster management & he seems like a very odd fit for this team.
  2. MGX
    Austin Martin has earned a chance to be the primary LF to start the season. Looking at Spring stats isn't very useful IMO, I'd rather look at what players have done during the regular season. Agree with the bench DJL has above just noting that I hope they go with Roden over Outman as the 4th OF.
  3. MGX
    I follow both the Twins & the Dodgers & can say nothing appears to be different. In '23 it was a nice season, but since then it has been a continual struggle at the plate. In '23 his K% was 31.9% & was already discussed as something he needed to improve. Since then it's been worse - '24 - 35.3% & in '25 - 42.6%. Additionally, he is a poor fit for this team as there multiple options to fill his potential role of 4th OF. Why would any team keep Outman over players like Roden, G Gonzalez & especially E Rod. We need to find out what we have in those young players whereas we know what we have in Outman & at this point it's not good enough to make an MLB roster.
  4. MGX
    The signing of Bell just doesn't make any sense. We already had players to play 1B vs RHP & a FT DH. All they needed was a utility IF who could hit LHP & cover 1B. Clemens should start vs RHP & maybe Caratini vs LHP, unless they can fit Wagaman on the team. This roster is a mess. We had two holes that needed to be filled - bullpen & SS & yet we spend, what 14 million on a DH & a backup C.
  5. MGX
    I sure hope the Twins give Martin a fair shot at starting in LF, he earned it down the stretch last season. Why waste an opportunity to develop a FT player by turning him into a platoon player. I'm all for platoons when they make sense, but to me Martin should get a chance at being the primary LF.
  6. MGX
    Austin Martin earned +3 OAA in LF in only 28 starts.
  7. MGX
    You may end up being right, but Josh Naylor stole 30 on 32 attempts last year & if Keaschall has a 65 grade speed then Naylor is likely a 45. Instincts play a big role in SB's.
  8. MGX
    Career numbers - Matt Wallner & Trevor Larnach 2 outs, RISP - Wallner - 109 PA's - .281/.413/.607 - 1.020 OPS Larnach - 196 PA's - .275/.383/.419 - .802 OPS any outs, RISP - Wallner 222 PA's - .260/.383/.514 - .897 OPS Larnach - 435 PA's - .255/.343/.401 - .744 OPS runners on base - Wallner 392 PA's - .264/.372/.512 - .885 OPS Larnach - 742 PA's - .255/.331/.413 - .743 OPS Wallner is a more productive hitter in any situation with runners on base. I think Larnach is a solid hitter, but so far in their careers Wallner has been better.
  9. MGX
    For his career he has 109 PA's with 2 outs & RISP. He's produced a 1.020 OPS in those situations. If you like all RISP situations regardless of outs, he's produced an .897 OPS in 222 PA's. If you like anytime there are runners on base, he's produced an 885 OPS 392 PA's. Any way you slice it he produces. Saying he's a stat padder is just inaccurate.
  10. MGX
    Trevor Larnach career wRC+ 103 VS Alan Roden career wRC+ 56 Roden could certainly develop into a hitter like Larnach or possibly be even better & I hope he does. He hasn't proven anything above AAA to this point. It seems to me they are very much on a different level currently.
  11. MGX
    Teams should try to find the best matchups. With that said if the Twins turn Austin Martin into a short-side platoon that's a big mistake. If they turn Keaschall into a short side platoon that would be ridiculous. These two both earned the chance to prove they are primary players in the lineup. In regard to Keaschall he was much, much better vs RHP (.514 OPS vs LHP - .975 OPS vs RHP) so I can't see how they could think about forcing him into a short side platoon situation. Even in Martin's situation where he was better VS LHP it shouldn't give him a chance to follow up on what he last season. When you only have 13 position players on the roster you can only rely on so many platoons, so use them where they're needed not with players like Martin & Keaschall who have earned the chance to prove they can be primary players.
  12. MGX
    Not interested. Trading Ober for a player like Lawler who at least potentially addresses SS is something that makes sense. I keep seeing SWR/Ober coming up in these articles as if they're of the same value? SWR is a developing SP who who was the best starter on the staff last September. IMO it's a good idea to see if he is taking a step forward prior to moving him. If we can get something useful for Ober I'm all for it & then we can get another younger starter in the rotation.
  13. MGX
    I don't know if he is on notice, but he sure isn't acting like it this off-season. If he were we'd be pushing to put a competitive team on the field. At the deadline we traded expiring contracts which is fine, but then we traded players with control beyond 2025 in our bullpen & at SS. If you're serious about competing wouldn't those be the two areas to address immediately? To this point we've addressed the bullpen with Eric Orze, The void at SS is being addressed by Brooks Lee & his 75 wRC+ along with at best below average D at a key defensive position. As others have said all we can do is hope there is more change coming as unlikely as that seems.
  14. MGX
    I'm not challenging this just an honest question - how & why would a team manipulate OAA? Overall, I agree that we still need to concerned with Bell's defense though I think he'll see some time at DH & will be removed late in games for D. Playing your 2B out of position to help your 1B doesn't improve overall team D even if it helps the 1B. Especially, when you have a young 2B still learning his position.
  15. MGX
    I get that his xwOBA looks good & that he had a resurgence in the 2nd half last season. He may hit for us, but why spend 7M of the 20M they supposedly have on someone who gives the team very little incremental gain. Clemens & Larnach the two players who he'll be in competition with for PA's are a lot like him offensively & Clemens is clearly better defensively at 1B. As I mentioned above we might think they're going to trade Larnach, but how does that help? Again, they're similar hitters & Bell is being paid over 2M more than what Larnach is likely to get. We have a glaring need in the bullpen & at SS so spending 1/3 of our budget on this doesn't seem like a good fit. It just doesn't make sense to me, but as @jorgenswest said he is a Twin now so we have to hope those numbers indicate a big step forward in offensive production.
  16. MGX
    My biggest issue with this signing is based on what we've heard about our budget - we just spent nearly 1/3 of what was available & there isn't much incremental gain... - Clemens OPS'd .782 vs RHP & shouldn't be used vs LHP - is a good defensive 1B - Bell OPS'd .804 vs RHP & .552 vs LHP - he's been more balanced in his career & maybe he gets back to that - is a poor defensive 1B So maybe there thinking use him as a DH vs RHP & 1B vs LHP - Larnach OPS'd .759 vs RHP & .608 vs LHP so Larnach sits vs RHP??? So maybe they trade Larnach for whatever we can get which may make sense except Larnach is expected to make less than 5M & we're paying Bell 7M. With all of that said the two biggest issues for this team in 2026 remain - Bullpen & SS. We've spent 1/3 of what seems to be our budget, created more questions & failed to address the two areas most in need of help.
  17. MGX
    From the list I like O'Hearn, he's a legitimate middle of the order bat (9th among 1B in wRC+ in 2025) & plays good D at 1B. Other than that Lowe is a cheaper option that could have a bounce back year. If not one of those two we may as well just get a utility player who consistenly hits LHP & have him platoon with Clemens.
  18. MGX
    Good point, The biggest need on this team is fixing the bullpen, so that needs to happen first & then find a SS whether it's through FA or trade. Kim isn't my first choice, but if it's possible I believe he would be an upgrade at SS. The bigger issue is we haven't done anything yet in an off-season where we should be busy. No offense to Eric Orze, who may work out fine, but we need a lot more help in the bullpen & the front office needs to get to work or it becomes clear they're not trying to compete. Actions speak louder than words & Falvey & Co. are a little short on actions to this point.
  19. MGX
    I keep seeing suggestions to move Lee to another position. My question is why is he considered a starter at all when hasn't earned it. @Riverbrian pointed out in a previous post it's a good thing too have too much talent & that would be a nice problem to have. That's never going to happen if we give starting jobs to players who haven't earned it. Don't get me wrong I'm still hoping Lee shows improvement, but he hasn't earned a starting role to this point. The OP pointed out a possible solution & to me it's an acceptable risk that Kim can provide an upgrade at SS.
  20. MGX
    It's a creative idea that could work. I'd like to see Keaschall get a chance at 2B, he has the athleticism to play up the middle & after a healthy off-season we should see what he can do there for at least a few months. With that said the idea of signing/trading for a starting SS like Kim is a worthy gamble. I like Brooks Lee, but IMO he hasn't earned a starting role on this team so why move people around to give him one. He can get plenty of playing time as a utility player to see if he can earn a starting role.
  21. MGX
    Obviously it depends on what else needs to be included with Royce to get Abrams. If this is a possibility the Twins should listen. The Nats allowed the 2nd most runs/game last season & would certainly welcome some pitching. Is something like Lewis, Ober & Debarge enough to make a deal happen?
  22. MGX
    How are people critical of this trade??? The Twins weren't going to use this pick at all & now they have an additional prospect in their system & probably just as important there is no impact on either 40 or 26 man rosters. It doesn't matter what anyone thinks of his future value, we'd have zero value without this trade.
  23. MGX
    I'd say 3 of those guys will still be in the bullpen - Adams/Ohl may end up shuttling back and forth. I agree with your point though they need to upgrade the bullpen. Another off-season where they just try to piece it together won't work. They claim they want to add a bat as well, we'll see.
  24. MGX
    Fair point, they were bad in June & July as well. They weren't as bad as the last two months, but still below .500. The bottom line is if they don't upgrade the bullpen they won't have a competitive season.
  25. MGX
    I'd like to see the Twins select Peter Heubeck from the Dodgers.
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