Beast

They should have another champaign celebration if they avoid the Astros.

Do they deserve to be division champs and locking up a playoff spot right now? No, not really. In any other season or division, they’d likely be praying to make up 4-5 games in the past 7-8 games to scrape by as the third wildcard. Also, their 3 best players might not available, or may be extremely limited, for the first round. Hard to not let that take the shine off a bit. They did it, though. They’ve finished strong. They’re finally not leaning on the previous regimes talent. Anything can happen in the playoffs. There are some things to be happy about, here. But, for those who seem to think this vindicates the FO, I can’t get on board with that yet. Win a series and I’ll start listening.

Castro has done nothing but come up big when given the opportunity. Credit to him and the FO. Finishing a couple of games back of the #2 will feel like a big missed opportunity. Huge difference in having to play someone like Houston in round one, or sitting and waiting with home field for round two. Being a little more proactive with the bullpen could’ve changed that. Not only acquiring somebody, but shuffling roles. Letting Jax run up 10 losses feels like it could’ve been avoided, among others. Regardless of when/where/who we play, it’ll be an uphill battle if we don’t have Correa and Lewis. I’ve seen “good news” on potential injuries go up in flames too many times to be comforted.

I would do it again in a heartbeat. We have guys that can replace Arraez, to an extent. I like Julien at second long-term. If he fizzles, we have guys like Lee, Martin, Schobel in the system. The way Polanco has been playing, maybe he comes back. It’s not hard to find a 1B that can hit a little bit. We have a few guys in the organization, and they’re dime-a-dozen on the market. It would be impossible for the Twins to replace Lopez. He’s a workhorse with a sub 3.5 ERA and a million strikeouts, capable of silencing the premier lineups in the game. He’s only 27 and locked up through 2027 at a fairly reasonable rate. Additionally, I’m not convinced there’s going to be longevity for Arraez as the premier average hitter in the game. He’s missed a lot of time in his career. He doesn't hit for a ton of extra base power, and can’t play any premier defensive positions. For some context, his career OPS is exactly .800. Max Kepler is OPSing .803 this year. He’s having a much better year than his career averages this year (.842 OPS, nearly 5 WAR), but is that sustainable? Arraez is also going to have to get paid at some point, and it’s going to be significant. I’d rather be locked in to Lopez than Arraez. Finally, to date, Arraez’s WPA in the playoffs is -0.10. His cWPA is -1.0%. That’s only 5 games, but has provided negative value in the playoffs despite a pretty darn good first series against the Yankees. Bottom line is, the drop off from Lopez to his potential replacement, is much greater than the drop off from Arraez to his replacement.

Overall, a decent outing from the bullpen. 1 run in 5 innings. But, hard to keep that perspective. You’re not going to hold many leads right now when Floro, Pagan, and Jax are going 4 innings. Nobody outside of Duran and Thielbar have any business being anywhere near a high leverage inning in the playoffs.

I agree on not trading prospects for relievers. That’s why you sign them to cheap deals. They’re dime-a-dozen. You could say “what difference would it make” about any player if you don’t think 2-3 wins is significant. Really strange take. It’s extremely significant. A 2-3 WAR player has value. Especially when comparing them to a negative WAR player (like Floro, for example). There isn’t one single reliever we could had on this team that would’ve made a difference? We could have signed free agents Chris Martin (1.17 ERA in 50 games), Matt Straham (3.29 ERA in 82 innings), Adam Ottavino (3.05 ERA in 60 games), Carlos Estevez (3.41 ERA in 58 games - 30 saves), Luke Jackson (3.14 ERA in 29 games), Tommy Kahnle (2.43 ERA in 39 games), Craig Kimbrel (3.39 ERA in 63 games), David Robertson (3.10 ERA in 54 games), Matt Moore (2.83 ERA in 45 games), Trevor May (3.70 ERA in 44 games), Aroldis Chapman (2.72 ERA in 55 games). Every single one of those guys signed 1 or 2 year contracts with less AAV than Joey Gallo. I can’t disagree more with the take that it “doesn’t matter.” Take even one of those guys and insert them into the ‘pen and things look much more promising going into the playoffs. Also, up until the recent mini-skid, we were within 4-5 games of getting the #2 seed and getting a first round bye and home field in the second round. Crossing that threshold would be a pretty big deal for this team. Really strange take to say the bullpen doesn’t matter. No offense, but I consider it idiocy. Again, I agree that trading prospects for relievers isn’t good. Well, then don’t be incompetent in free agency and you can avoid it. They made their bed, they should’ve slept in it to give this team a punchers chance in the playoffs. This team has no shot if they’re running out some of these guys, and they can’t only use 2 or 3 relievers.

I couldn’t disagree more. This bullpen stinks. Duran has proven to be mortal. Still very good, but it’s no longer a 7-8 inning game when he’s available. That changes the whole complexion of the pitching staff. Even if he were still dominant, you have to get the ball in his hands with the lead. Looking at the following makes that seem nearly impossible. Theilbar may be our only trustworthy set-up caliber guy. He’s been great. But, I’m still a bit apprehensive on him. He’s nearly 37, had some fairly significant injury issues this year, and is essentially a junk baller (he’s a hanging breaking ball waiting to happen). I don’t feel great about him being our best option against, say, George Springer, Bo Bichette, and Vlad Guerrero if we play the Blue Jays. But, at the end of the day, he’s been very good. Jax has 9 losses, 7 blown saves, a WHIP over 1.2, an ERA over 4. He’s just not that good. It’s not a small sample size anymore. He’s a mediocre middle reliever. We all know Emilio Pagan. I don’t trust him with runners on base in a high leverage spot. Never will. He’s one of the worst relievers in the history of baseball. He just walked 3 guys and blew the save and took an L against Cleveland in back to back appearances. He hasn’t had an ERA under 4.5 since 2019. He still walks way too many people, and doesn’t strike out nearly enough to sustain it. Floro and Headrick are absolutely awful. Floro has a 6.60 ERA since coming here. He’s giving up nearly 12 hits and 4 walks per 9 innings. Headrick’s numbers are nearly identical. Keuchel throwing 86 mph and nibbling at spots isn’t conducive to a bullpen role. It’s absurd that he’s even in the conversation for a roster spot. They pulled him off the street and he had an ERA of 9.20 and a WHIP over 2 in 60 innings last year. He had a 5.28 ERA and WHIP over 1.5 the year before. He strikes out half a batter per inning. You cannot use this guy in a playoff game. Winder has been OK of late, but no way you’re giving that guy the ball in the 7th-8th inning of a tied playoff game. We have no idea what we have in Varland. He’s given up 19 ER over 18.3 innings in his last 5 major league appearances. He just got shelled in garbage time against the Mets. He gave up 2 absolute bombs. Why would we be excited about Maeda at this point? He’s given up 17 ERs in 23 innings over his last 5 appearances. The Twins have lost 3 of those games, and scored 10 runs and 8 runs in the other two games to make up for him giving up 8 runs in 9 innings. It’s not 2020 anymore. He gets all of this credit for being a great postseason bullpen guy. Was this in an alternate timeline? He had a 6.75 ERA in the playoffs in 2016, a 4.05 ERA in 2018, and only 4 innings in 2019. He was great in 2017, which might as well be 100 years ago. This does not even remotely resemble a good bullpen. Not even an average one. I don’t like trading prospects for relievers. But, they put themselves in that position by the awful decision making around the bullpen in the off-season. Opting to not shore up this ‘pen was the opposite of the right decision. It will play a major factor in the playoffs. No doubt in my mind. This bullpen is a powder keg waiting for a match in a big game. Especially when you have a starter like Gray who can’t make it past 5 innings. We’ll need to get extremely lucky to weather something like that.

We can’t have both Gallo and Wallner on the roster, IMO. Gallo has a leg up at first glance with his defensive flexibility. I was also about to comment on his experience as well. But, shockingly, Gallo has played in 1 playoff game (a second as a late inning defensive replacement). I think Wallner has a better chance contributing as a late inning pinch hitter, which is about all either should be used for. At the end of the day, flip a coin and pick one, then leave them on the bench as much as possible. They’re the same guy.

I don’t mind them not trading for a reliever. It’s a waste of prospect capital. You can sign decent relievers for peanuts every year. Going into the year knowing you have nobody and hoping to fill it by shuttling a bunch of AAAA guys to and from St. Paul to save a couple million is laughable.

Oh he’ll be on the roster, and they’ll use him. That shouldn’t be where we are with the bullpen, but here we are. Again.

Instead of bringing in Floro, just concede the game and save everybody some time.

Sure would be nice to find a place for Kirilloff and Larnach against RHP right now. Both are on fire. Wallner has gone fairly cold. It looks even worse if you take out the BP against a position player. Julien is slashing .236/.367/.303 over the past 30 games. The OBP is very good, but could use a little more thump from someone hitting in a prominent lineup slot. We all know how Gallo has been playing. Bring up Kirilloff and Larnach. Get them some major league ABs before the playoffs. Gallo and Stevenson are expendable.

Nothing is more satisfying as a fan than to see the guys Cleveland claimed, likely just to block them from the Twins, contribute to both of their losses. That’s what’s it’s come to for Cleveland as an organization. They absolutely stink, so all they can do is try to play spoiler for others.

I, personally, don’t like taking two of our best hitters out of the game right now for Luplow and Farmer. Not only the implications on this game later, but their development. I see the rationale and don’t think it’s egregious, so meh. Hindsight is 20/20, on either side of your grievance. But, fact is, neither of those subs contributed to a run and now we’re down two major offensive pieces for 1/3 of the game. I think there’s plenty of debate to be had on those moves, whether or not they worked in this specific case.

Farmer was two feet from putting the coffin nail on Cleveland’s season. Brilliant pinch hit there by Baldelli. A masterclass in managing. The Wallner move was absolutely awful though, fire him.

What more can be said about Royce Lewis at this point. Holy cow. Lopez may get through 7 here, which is massive. Correa, despite his troubles this year, still has his head up and is active in the dugout (cheering guys on, talking with others, laughing, etc.). The leadership is still there. Even the biggest haters have to respect that. Overall, this feels like somewhat of a statement game.

I’m not advocating he go anywhere, but Wallner’s emergence may be slowing a bit. Over the 13 games he’s played, he has 7 hits, 4 RBIs, and 15 Ks. If he has a bad series against Cleveland and Larnach keeps hitting, you have to start thinking about it.

Was there an injury, or did our manager just pinch run Joey Gallo for one of our best hitters in a huge 1 run game with potential playoff implications?

It is in their control. They needed bullpen help. They could’ve traded for Lopez. They could’ve signed Matt Moore for relative peanuts. Everything breaking wrong for this team (except injuries to an extent) isn’t an accident. They put themselves in the position. That said, dumb loophole that allows one team to load up like that. It should go in some sort of order. Maybe based on priority assigned by the team to each player they submit a claim for. Once you claim one player, you go to the back of the line on the next one.

There is zero chance that the Twins would lay out the kind of contract to sign Ohtani. Especially with the Correa contract on the books. There is zero chance Ohtani would have any interest in coming to Minnesota. Who wants to come to this dumpster fire (of a State and a baseball team)? Who wants to be part of the most laughable losing streak in postseason history in any sport (when the division incompetent enough for us to sneak in)? Who wants to be part of half-assed rosters, where investments in players are made more for PR purposes than to win (look at this damn bullpen, you can’t tell me they’re trying). Who wants to come in and perpetually kick the can down the road waiting for some fairy tale wave of prospects that has never and will never arrive while you waste your career away in obscurity? We used to be able to sell Minneapolis as a pristine, safe, vibrant, artistic, innovative, etc. city with a low cost of living. Now it’s just a dump with one of the highest state tax rates in the country. No better quality of life or less corrupt than any other city with a team. You’d do just as well to live in LA or NY. The only difference is the market is smaller. Oh, and Minnesota Nice hasn’t been thing in the City for decades. I’ve been a Twins fan for my entire life, and even I wouldn’t sign with this franchise right now without a huge premium. Why in God’s name would one of the biggest international athletes in the world (in any sport) come to baseball and purgatory?

Nailed it. I wouldn’t say it’s cutthroat necessarily. It’s smart.

I don’t think any of the good pitchers will be available. But, if one makes it you have to take them. Not only would they help here (Lopez or Moore would be a godsend right now), but passing on one may land them on a future playoff opponent.

There were some boneheaded mistakes in this one, and the Rangers are awful right now, but still a good series win to keep the division lead at 6.

I like it. It’s a no brainer to add Martin to the postseason roster, IMO. He can play all over and he can run the bases. Being able to hit a little bit from the right side is icing on the cake. Luplow would be on the outside looking in for me. He doesn’t bring anything that concerns me to lose. Assuming RHP - I’d like an OF of Wallner, Buxton, and Kepler (at least against RHP) with Taylor off the bench. An OF alignment of Taylor, Buxton, Kepler to close out games is phenomenal. Gallo is a late inning bench bat if a desperation HR is needed. I’d put Ober and Maeda in the pen and start Gray, Lopez, and Ryan. Varland to the pen as well. This is all fun to think about now. But, there will an injury between now and then. Wouldn’t surprise me if Buxton or Lewis are unavailable.

He’ll still get a great deal. No question. But, it certainly won’t be as large as it could have been. He’s an ace level starter. That’s now gone for a year. Maybe in question for another. Premier starting pitchers run up to $40M per year these days. TJ is more commonplace than a death sentence these days. But there’s a failure rate for any medical procedure. We’ve seen multiple instances of lengthy recovery, even reinjury, from TJ here. On top of that risk, this is uncharted territory. How does a guy rehab TJ while trying to be the best hitter in baseball? Is it even possible to come back and be an elite pitcher before the end of 2025 without dedicating 100% of your training time? Can he still hit at the same level through this process? This is a huge deal in negotiations. No matter what his agent runs out there through Rosenthal. I do think his international stardom mitigates it quite a bit. He’s one player that immediately opens up a whole new market/fan base. He’s also become one of the most recognizable stars across markets in the US. He’s currently one of the most marketable athletes in the world, in any sport. That has a ton of value. But, that was there before the injury. I’m interested how it plays out. But, holy cow. What a disaster for the Angels.