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JD-TWINS

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Everything posted by JD-TWINS

  1. JD-TWINS
    Since Martin is a question mark - Buxton is a question mark - why wouldn’t we sign Taylor? Great defense, not just OK, & he hit 21 HR…….maybe $6M/yr?
  2. JD-TWINS
    Don’t understand the logic behind signing a guy with diminishing defensive skills & him being inserted at DH when we have a guy under contract with the same issues & the need for him to DH. If healed by April - Buxton can’t play CF at more than a 40% rate……DH another 35-40%. IF HE DOESN’T heal he’s a DH 70% of the time. I believe the Twins should commit to Kirilloff being their 1B answer. I get his health may be in question but I don’t think it’s worth signing Justin Turner for 2 years as a back-up plan. Turner at DH is great if Buxton is “healthy” & playing OF. What happens when Lee is ready mid-summer and Julien is ready to DH v. every RH pitcher we see? Let’s let our youth come forward mid-season and until then we can utilize what’s under contract. Why not sign Donnie B for $4M to fill same roll as last year? His BA is solid …..his D at 1B is OK. He’s clutch & affordable. Turner brings more Pop, yes - we already lead the league in HR.
  3. JD-TWINS
    Love watching Brantley hit over his career……he’s too fragile & too much risk for being paid like a normal version of himself. He played 64 games in ‘22 & 15 games in ‘23……great hitter - no availability! Cannot risk this sign.
  4. JD-TWINS
    I agree - availability & flexibility makes Farmer the right pick between him and Polanco on our roster. As a guy with some Pop - switch hitter - Polanco makes better trade material. Win-win! With Polanco gone we’re around $114M……room for an arm…… or least costly option of 2 arms.
  5. JD-TWINS
    The more I think about it the more I like Luis Severino coming over and getting paired up with our guys on their way to DriveLine for some fresh guidance. Then Maki has Lopez work with him on physical discipline and mental clarity. Severino has great stuff - don’t know if anyone has connected with him on the coaching side? Can he stay healthy? He’ll be pitching for a new long-term contract so he’ll be motivated in ‘24!!!
  6. JD-TWINS
    How about 2 of 3 guys at $11 - $12M each to spread risk of failure with some real upside?? Maeada - Lugo - Severino Severino, is higher risk but he’s got #1 stuff if he’s right/healthy. He’ll be motivated!! Maeda seems lowest risk - known guy & solid teammate, already in place. BEST OPTION is Jordan Montgomery for 4 years with 5th year player option……. he gets security and some flexibility at end of deal……..escalating salary from $22M - $22M - $25M - $25M. (5th year option at $25M) Either path on pitching can be done, if Twins trade Polanco, and we’re not over $140M total budget. Have to mention since I’ve seen the suggestion before……Unless TWINS pay somebody, Vazquez is our catcher for two years….I guess a front line catcher could get hurt & force a trade for some front running team ………but I still think a trade for Vazquez is a huge stretch.
  7. JD-TWINS
    MONTGOMERY! Durable 30 years old with recent success in post-season. Consistent career numbers. He gets guys out and doesn’t need elite stuff to get it done. 4 years at $24M/yr with a 5th year player option that gives him security & some flexibility to make more $$ if he chooses.
  8. JD-TWINS
    LEE is coming by August 1!!!
  9. JD-TWINS
    I like this a lot!!!! Montgomery is a HUGE add - even if we need to stretch to $26M (30 v. Gray at 34) Bader doesn’t interest me…….I’d shuffle the I.D.’s to ‘23 reality until Buxton shows up for real, with knees that flex. Castro - CF Buxton - DH Taylor - 4th OF Gotta say I see somebody other than Larnach as last OF.…..Gordon? Youth guy?? Maybe Larnach? Have been preaching for this Staff!!! ……maybe Balazovic instead of Moran?? Splitting hairs. Lots of wins if this team is somewhat healthy!!
  10. JD-TWINS
    I think it’s because he’s a proven commodity in the Play-offs, which he showed in October. Also, when healthy, he’s a top 6-7 SS in the game. An upside list, to me, speaks to guys that haven’t done a bunch yet. Not the case with CC. Can’t live in a world of hindsight. Not expecting this, but what if Lewis is hurt again in May - how’s the list work out then?
  11. JD-TWINS
    IMO they keep Farmer for defensive flexibility at a certain competence level, along with durability. He plays 2B v. every LH pitcher we face and he rests CC 25 games and Lewis 30 games. that’s 90 starts or so……….pinch hitter or late defensive replacement another 30 games. They trade Polanco and Julien starts all games at 2B v. RH pitching.
  12. JD-TWINS
    I’m all about bird in the hand - not a big rah rah, let’s bring up guys from AAA to see what they can do sort. I have zero allegiance to Martin. I know he’s quick - decent baserunner - OK bat, but problems hitting in summer of ‘22. Also, arm problems well into ‘23. …….. I just don’t like another left handed bat with fair amount of cost that isn’t durable enough to get me very excited to sign.
  13. JD-TWINS
    I would think that if they were going to spend any $$ on FA pitching (outside a BIG move) that Maeda would be first choice. Both sides are comfortable with each other - his elbow is basically brand new - 2 years with 2nd being his option at $12M/year. Gives him security, and unless he collapses, it gives us reasonable depth for 2 years.
  14. JD-TWINS
    Castro OR Martin succeeding v. Keirmaier staying healthy & succeeding…………I like the cost and probability blended risk of the former. If we’re signing a FA for CF with a good glove and decent health history to reduce risk of the young guys, Taylor has to get serious consideration.
  15. JD-TWINS
    I’m trying to weigh the risk of spending on a FA ……with probable health risks …….v. a guy already in the system and the risk he can’t hit well enough. Can always play somebody else & move him back down if not successful but signing a guy for $8M we could spend on an arm I don’t like. Certainly don’t think Martin is Kiermaier’s level defensively but I do think he’s adequate.
  16. JD-TWINS
    Simple - Castro!
  17. JD-TWINS
    Option 1) Maeda 2 years for $21M…….Better would be 1 year for $12M with a team option 2nd year at $12M or $2M buyout. He’s 36 with a re-built (good as new) elbow. He’s a for sure 130 innings guy, however you want to use him. A must) QO for Gray and we get a good pick. Option 2) Offer Jordan Montgomery 4 years with a 5th year option of his choice. $24M/year ……….that’s a couple Million more per year than Gray but he’s age 30 - 6’5” & 230lbs - great recent post-season success - 3.30ERA over essentially 7 years in MLB
  18. JD-TWINS
    Walker is 21 in 2026, right?……….seems like a lifetime with this existing pitching staff. Need some near-term solution. I get Kiermaier upside - great D - super attitude - hits RH pitching well……….injury risk though…….we don’t need to try & solve this problem of durability in CF with a fragile guy. Seems Martin is as good of a risk for positive outcome regarding performance, plus availability.
  19. JD-TWINS
    Texas has Heaney - deGrom - Scherzer - Eovaldi - all under contract, plus a couple more guys……….I think Montgomery leaves & will be in high demand. We may not be to attract him?
  20. JD-TWINS
    1 option) Maeda is an inexpensive depth piece for rotation. Maybe trade for another similar guy and live with that solution? 2nd option) Gray at $70M, at 34 years old seems to be more of a sentimental move. I honestly don’t think he’ll hold up physically over 3 years & that’s a lot of $$ to have even 1 bad or unproductive year. That’s $23.3M/year for Gray. Best option) It seems that we should at least offer $24M/year for 4 years to Jordan Montgomery with a 5th year player option. He’s 30. He’s had a 3.30ERA over essentially 7 MLB seasons. 6’5” 235 pound horse - left handed fits with our other 4 RH starters. Great recent post-season success! If we can afford him at $24-$27M he’s our best buy!!!
  21. JD-TWINS
    The issue with Varland is that it seems they told him he would have an opportunity going forward as a starter when they moved him to the Pen in September. Seems that’s how his headline ran for justification of the move. IMO, he could be a 4.25 ERA guy with a .500 record as a starter. Seems durable & could eat innings. He could be dominant in the Pen! If he & the Twins can get his mind right coming out of the Pen is best for the club. Varland - Stewart - Jax - Duran………they’d be on the cover of Sporting News by June 1 if they still printed the baseball bible!!
  22. JD-TWINS
    Me either! How about Winder, Balazovic, & Funderburk? To me, unless they trade Winder, he’s our obvious long guy in the Pen. Funderburk seems like a can’t miss rostered guy. Alcala - Balazovic - Moran can battle for last spot.
  23. JD-TWINS
    Giolito is like signing Chris Archer…..he was terrible in ‘23! Varland gives us a much better chance to win games. Most common sense $$ move is to sign Maeda for 2 years in $30M range as a depth piece. After ‘25 we have a little more $$ to spend and we’ll have more data on the other 4 guys now in rotation, plus Varland. If this isn’t a sufficient solution in ‘24 we can be aggressive at the deadline. BEST option is QO to Gray and we get a pick when he leaves for more $$ & then offer Jordan Montgomery $96M for 4 years with mutual 5th year option. Can control the $$ to fit budget by paying $20M for first 2 years & then $28M for last 2 years of contract. Montgomery has a 3.30ERA over essentially a 7 year career and he’s a big, durable, lefty……..performed well in post-season. Perfect fit. Could move Varland to Pen with Stewart - Jax - Duran and have the best Staff in the game top to bottom!
  24. JD-TWINS
    Not enough $$! Somebody would pay him $52M plus for 2 years……….almost certainly, he gets offered $70M for 3 years.
  25. JD-TWINS
    Ultimately, he plays right at 6’5” & as a former pitcher. Needs to quit trying “to impress” with his arm & make solid plays - hitting the cut-off when applicable!!! He’s got a big swing but 27-28% K’s is plenty - can’t be 35% plus. Needs to improve K% of through ‘24 season. If he can hit .255 plus out of the 7th spot in the line-up & drive in 65-70 runs with 25 plus HR, he’s at the floor for our every day guy in right. He’s got potential to have 30 or more doubles & 35 HR…..potential budding star!
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