JD-TWINS

At the time it was known across the Country in the media, & to anyone paying attention, that Ryan’s record at home was much better than his road record, hence the Ober start in Houston……..nobody thinks either of these guys is an ACE or that they are #1’s. However, their performances from ‘22 forward are pretty good & the fans should quit whining/pining for some savior because the current rotation is so poor or is in disarray. Could use more depth, that’s a given! These guys don’t suck or they wouldn’t be listed this high by guys that pay lots of attention to stats & results.

Agree, Ober can be good! Regardless of why the Team was 15-19 in Gray’s starts (Pen blew it - lack of offense - lack of depth in start) …….. the Team needs to positively replace the Outcomes of his starts…….2 of the above were playoff starts. So, if a guy or two can start the 32 games Gray did in the regular season and the team goes 16-14 & all else stays the same, they win 89 games. To me, the Twins going 16-14 with another starter is not a big ask……..,gotta get the innings from someone, that’s the biggest challenge.

Agreed - it’s really about the outcome of the start. I realize one could be fortunate and have an ERA of 4.40 & win 14 games …….and that a 2.79 ERA gives the team a better chance. Not promoting mediocrity. Still, when discussing replacing guys, Gray & Maeda combined were 14-16 in ‘23. Maeda wasn’t sharp in relief in the playoffs. Gray was 1-1 with a pick off move to 2B that protected the one win, & he went 5 innings. That makes team 15-19 across all his starts or .441 win %. Do the readers/writers here expect Lopez - Ryan - Ober to regress or stay static or improve? IMO, Ober regresses just a bit because he’s been so good, Ryan improves with health & Lopez pitches similarly with a slightly better record. Point is, the outcomes for Maeda & Gray should be replaceable with Paddack & Varland. Could still use some starter depth help but not desperate times.

Who’s around in July & beyond? Top 5 guys, if they remain healthy, of Funderburk-Thielbar-Jax-Stewart-Duran, no big surprise……..with, ideally, Canterino - Alcala - Winder. Because of Options left & limitations there, Balazovic may get a shot initially. I don’t believe in Sands stuff in the Show. Winder had a 4.15 ERA & his fastball got hit at around .380………a 2 seam has to get his 95Mph fastball to some level of respectability. Alcala is all about maintaining health as is Canterino.

Martin & Larnach were #1 picks as well no free ride after you get to the Show - agreed.

I don’t care what draft pick Gordon was, that gets him nothing at this point, we agree…..just pointing out at one point he was considered a decent athlete - the root of my comment was that he can play CF, LF & 2B - just like Martin & since he’s out of options he’ll probably get carried along unless they trade him. Everyone on the initial 13 man has to hit……..particularly, Miranda - Martin - Gordon. Assuming Martin gets more seasoning at AAA. I did also agree with the “hit to prove yourself - find their true level” comment you made but I didn’t think Kirilloff was far from a good season in ‘23.

I saw a pitching list (link) here a couple days ago that was related to Starting Pitching Value for Fantasy leagues. Anyway, Lopez was 11th & Ryan & Ober were 30 & 31. I think Paddack was 82? Anyway, I don’t think we’re getting a pitcher in trade much better than our current #2/#3 guys. Luzardo was valued at 26th. While I think pursuing a trade for an arm makes sense, even through to the Deadline in July, it makes sense to sign a FA to help with effective depth soon. We could sign Clevinger and spend $14-$15M. We could then continue to pursue a trade & if successful we could trade at the deadline to fill offensive hole if needed. If Varland “gets pushed” into the Pen that would be a bonus! Pitching $$ can come from moving Polanco, which needs to happen anyway with the current roster and 2B capabilities from Julien - Farmer - Gordon - Martin - Castro …………..Lee/Lewis at some point. I don’t see a need for only one path to pitching depth.

Doubt he would sign for that, even though he’s sitting a year……..that’s areal reach for a club without knowing he can throw. Seems most of the re-hab deals are 2 years - maybe 3 years. $$ & timing don’t seem to fit Twins but maybe a team would offer that to him?

So do the other teams….

Miranda is the alternative guy at 1B & maybe 10-20 games at 3B. Don’t see the competition between him & Gordon as a few here have eluded to for the last roster spot. Miranda is currently the only RH alternative at 1B. 13 guys: 2 Catchers, RL- CC - EJ - AK on the dirt with Farmer & Miranda, MW - Castro/Buxton - MK ……..these 12 guys seem to be a lock unless they sign/trade for a 1B. Gordon/Larnach/Martin are trying to get the last roster spot. I don’t understand the NEED for Martin early, in CF? The assumption is that Castro can’t handle the position/opportunity but Martin probably can & deserves a shot………. In ‘23 Castro had a 106 OPS plus - he hit .257 as a switch hitter - a .340 OBP - had 32 XBH in 358 AB’s - his arm is fantastic - he stole 33 bases - he’s played LF - CF - 3B - 2B - SS in the Show. He’s physically stronger, and he has experience. He DOES the things that everyone hopes Martin may do. All this assumes Polanco is moved. Gordon was a #1 pick at SS so he’s athletic - started 43 games in CF in ‘22 - can play 2B if needed as he was the starter there in ‘22 when Polanco couldn’t play - he’s out of options. He needs to start the year in Spring Training hitting better but unless he’s traded, it seems to me he’s the depth guy & 13th roster position until Martin or Larnach force him off the roster. Once Martin shows some offensive consistency over a couple more months, he’s a real option!! He’s a real alternative to Gordon out of camp.

Currently in the high teens for Payroll? ($118M?) Move Polanco. $135M budget ceiling. There’s room for an arm!! Could add Clevinger & keep Polanco or trade later. Just because they sign a FA doesn’t mean they stop trying to trade for a controllable arm………can always trade later if there’s an unexpected glut!

Can’t have League low ERA in ‘23 for the rotation with 2 good pitchers! Ober & Ryan, to me, are middle of the pack #2’s - higher end #3’s. This is great, with Paddack being a solid #3. All 3 of these guys are in question because Minnesotan’s don’t like to beat their chest & more so, because of their potential for limited availability. When healthy, they stack up very well behind Pablo!! BTW, he’s #8. Also, was #8 on MLB’s Top 10 starters for 2024!! In ‘23 he was 23rd in baseball in ERA - threw 194 innings - 3rd in the game in K’s - #1 in xWOBA. That’s an ACE!

Indy & Louisville are, closer in one case & same as Columbus, in another. Plenty of fan base. From a Cinti. resident.

Some Broad Strokes that aren’t real accurate but understand your premise …….. 300,000/day is 109,000,000/year - that would be a really big problem. That aside. Don’t feel too bad for the Reds! I live in Cincinnati & have been here since ‘91 (from MN) ……….similar to St. Paul in the City but over 1.6million with surrounding suburbs. Dayton - Columbus - Indianapolis - Louisville - Lexington are all 100 miles or less from the Stadium……,that’s gotta total at least another 4.5 - 5 million potential bodies……they are the oldest franchise in the game and are extremely cheap & it shows in their attendance. Also, a very proud fan base that attend games in a very fickle nature. They were in playoff mix in September & had under 20,000 on a beautiful night……happens often. Reds paid Ken Griffey Jr!! Reds paid Joey Votto!! ………..it’s a choice. They can do it. Twins are paying CC $34M/year - can’t omit that just because it’s old news. I completely agree that keeping the payroll at $140M (10% reduction) is the bottom of where the team should be. If they move Polanco, they could sign Montgomery by next Friday at $26M/year. Fingers crossed!

No change. Effectiveness in a role is King! All relievers were starters at some point. Nobody is suggesting Hader, or even Jax, move back to the rotation. Guys have been swung back and forth between long relief & starter forever. Guys doing it now are Martinez from San Diego (now Reds) - Lorenzen from Philadelphia, etc etc. Twins aren’t desperate for innings from starters. Having a great closer and relying on that for 45-55 games is a big deal!! It’s like suggesting Royce Lewis should be shoved back into CF…….he’s played there before ……….there’s a need……..,Bad Idea!

Assuming he has an agent & there would be caveats - getting him for cheap isn’t going to happen in any case. Risk of injury & then zero upside is the concern, as you point out.

Gray & Maeda were 14-16 combined in ‘23 regular season. Gray had a decent start against Toronto in playoffs (picked a guy off at 2B to get through 5th & final inning) & was not good v. Houston! Maeda did not pitch well in playoffs. The team was 15-19 in Gray’s starts in ‘23. Obviously, I don’t hate Gray - he deserved better! However, the outcomes of those two guys were not that impressive at all. The, “we’re screwed without them”, comments that flow continually here are overstated. Would it have been less controversial to sign both? Probably. Is it poor judgement to think that Varland/Paddack can’t go .500 in 50 starts? IMO, I don’t think so.

Your opinion about ownership & spending may be very accurate…….Jax “blew a bunch of games” & 6 guys are going to regress & a career journeyman that’s a great defender is still unsigned, was & would be a key going forward?? Did the Blue Jays lose the money they were going to pay Ohtani - haven’t seen any bold moves from them? Resigned Kiermaier. Twins have a decent Club & with more games under their belt this year I think the younger guys thrive and add 50-75% to each WAR total. High paid Vets can’t be as bad in ‘24. They were 14-5 in ‘23 against Phillies - Diamondbacks - Astros - Rangers……the last 4 teams standing in ‘23. Can rationalize how or why they were “lucky” to have done this but if that’s the case one needs to scrutinize the 162 games every other team played to justify their wins. The rotation lost Maeda - Gray & combined, they were 14-16……..real outcomes are what matters not just stats. They were 15-19 in Gray’s starts. He had an OK playoff start v. Toronto & had to pick a guy off to get out of a major jam - threw 5 innings. Stunk it up v. Astros in the following series. Am not hating on Gray - lack of run support in regular season was a problem - but his ERA didn’t get the team the results that would be expected in his starts. Is it ridiculous to think Varland & Paddack go a combined 17-15 in ‘24 or similar? I think management/ownership should get the Payroll total to $140M…….once TV is sorted, $160M in ‘25…………..at $140M, that’s a 10% reduction - that’s plenty when needing to be frugal. With this number & a Polanco trade, they’d have $30M plus to spend in ‘24…………Montgomery for $26M would be fantastic (all sorts of options)…….they can spend back to $160M in ‘25 & they’ll be free of Farmer & Kepler’s salary by then ($17M). I think things aren’t so bad - I agree, they need to act because “everything will work out approach” is burying their heads! Beers are expensive in Pittsburgh - Cincinnati - D.C. - Detroit as well, Pohlad’s don’t have that cornered!

Agreed…….Lewis is a 5.0 WAR guy if he plays 135 games………Buxton & CC totaled 1.8 WAR in ‘23 & with “decent” season from CC & a 115 games of offensive availability from Buxton their total gets to 5.5 WAR with ease….they just need to be healthy & it happens.

The whole “he can’t pitch this year” thought should be enough for any rational person to not want to trade for him, unless they are giving him away. Doubt this would be the case! Uncertainty going forward with any guy coming off surgery…….one missed year, one “tender” year is not how we want to improve the Club.

Posted earlier about the plus/minus in the Central Division and it disappeared. This is generalized thought about a common theme from others about the “improved” Division. Tigers…….young talented guys that are getting better, granted. Lost Rodriguez who went 13-9 with 3.30 ERA. HUGE LOSS………gained Kenta Maeda & Jack Flarhty who totaled a 14-17 record with a combined 4.60 ERA in ‘23……….if both Maeda & Flarhty go 10-5 each, the Team only gains 6 wins total over Rodriguez 2023 .………….. K.C. added Lugo & Wacha, both major upgrades! They traded Chapman before the deadline & have now added a good reliever. They will be better (Merrifield still unsigned?) but I don’t think 20 plus games better. Reasonable? …………… Whote Sox don’t seem to be in the mix……….Cleveland’s Managerial change will not help them - they are without Josh Bell all year……..pitching will be more healthy but run scoring capability has not leaped forward so they remain challenged. …………….. Twins lost Gray & Maeda…..14-16 record collectively. Not Gray’s issue, often! However, those are the “outcomes” that need to be replaced. With an expected uptick (not a leap forward) from CC - Buxton & even Vazquez things are a bit better in ‘24. Lewis - Julien - Wallner for a full season can’t be a step backward! Honestly, I’d take Paddack & Varland going forward v. Maeda & Flarhty in a rotation. Martin - Miranda - Farmer - Larnach - Gordon……going to need a couple of these guys to step up…….am assuming Polanco is moved?? I don’t think, w/o some rotation upgrade or offensive upgrade such as a depth piece at 1B & 3B, Twins win 95 games. I do think this team can cruise to 88 wins w/o much good fortune. All subjective!! Last year’s team was 14-5 v. Astros-Diamondbacks-Rangers-Phillies, the last 4 standing.

Sanchez had a pretty bright 6-10 weeks in San Diego in ‘23……,Twins know him………doubt there’s enough savings in salary to pick him up if Vazquez was moved. Casali can catch (I live in Cinti.) but similar to Vazquez Offense from ‘23……,cheaper & reasonable defensive replacement. …………. I’d target my favorite offseason topic, Devin Williams. Former Hader set-up guy. Closer for last 1.3 years. Could swing either way for Twins. Only $7.25M this year after arbitration settlement. ….,quite different than a potentially washed Kenny Jansen at $17M. Williams has 2 years of control left. Our bullpen becomes elite with his addition! Trade nearly anyone needed to get this done….,,…….no Lee - Lewis - Jenkins……no everyday starters. Other prospects - Vazquez (with cash incentives to trade partner, Milwaukee) - Polanco - Miranda - Larnach - Gordon - Festa - E. Rodriguez - other prospects?

IMO Jeffers ranking or value have zero to do with framing or automated strike zone. Not applicable in a player’s worth. I think that as his Games started increase and his AB’s increase, his offense likely declines a bit post August 1st due to the grind. Seems he has earned 60% plus of the starts until mid-August and then taper him back closer to 50% to keep him fresh for October. Seems to be common sense. Playing Vazquez 8 more games than writers here think he deserves, “…..at .200 OPS difference” is a minor issue for the Team. Nobody in the organization care or should care where Jeffers gets ranked by MLB Network. 95-100 starts would be plenty with a defensive veteran like Vazquez to fall back on as alternative. Another writer’s comment said it, “……C offense from a good catcher is a bonus”. Decent defense from the 2 guys we play and a blended “average offensive year” would be a nice outcome.

As a couple guys mentioned, top prospects get traded all the time. Spencer Steer has a better chance of being an MVP than Rodriguez since he already has had success in the Show & shows no reason why he wouldn’t continue to be better. Red’s MVP of ‘23. He was a traded prospect - nobody jumping off a bridge in Minneapolis over this. Rodriguez - Polanco & another guy or two, other than Lee - Jenkins, is worth a solid starter for the next 2-4 years! No other 26 man guys but realistic add-ons to the Polanco - Rodriguez pairing would be worthwhile. If Rodriguez plays CF & isn’t ready until ‘25……..most think Jenkins plays CF & should be ready in ‘26……..make a deal for a pitcher now. Lee at 3B everyday & Lewis in LF everyday & Jenkins in CF everyday & Wallner in RF everyday …….CC & Julien & Jeffers through the middle, sounds OK for future….,,,not torn up with regret. Pitcher now & piece together CF for a couple seasons.

Buxton for Arraez …..on what plane of consciousness does that happen? Trading Buxton for anyone doesn’t happen, unfortunately. I do think that the “Buxton can’t hit unless he plays CF” is way overstated by many here. He couldn’t hit because he was hurt & couldn’t even play CF at 29 years old. Nobody hits well if their legs aren’t working. IMO, he plays CF once a week - twice a week maybe a couple times per month. DH’s 80 games and that’s what the new reality will be. Am hopeful he can pull off the above, if he can actually start 110-120 games it would be his second time over 100 games in what will be his 10th year. Arraez, somehow back to Twins to hit behind Julien would be special!