JD-TWINS

Can’t get to an ERA of 2.61 over 69 appearances & 75 innings with smoke & mirrors. Floro could get knocked around - not sure how these stats accurately compare the two?

To me, Duvall is the only FA that may make sense as he would displace Gordon on the 13 position player list. Gotta have any additional OF capable of playing CF. Buxton will be limited & Castro should be able to be used in a flexible role at least some of the time and not an anchor in CF. Martin is an option as well but am assuming he’ll be slotted to be at AAA for at least the early months of the season. Not sure they can assume he’s ready?

I agree on the “other needs” but 40% of the TD crowd say they, and the organization, thinks that a RH bat is needed. Either at 1B or Corner OF “they need a RH bat.” $$ spent there?? Hope not! ……….. Ober & Ryan were both in their 2nd year in The Show & in their 1st playoff starts - guys evolve, IMO. With the Pen above, I think that if they can only get through 3 plus innings with 2 of the 4 starters in the playoffs, they’re OK. I’m a big proponent of signing Clevinger! Also, a big proponent of trading for Devin Williams with 2 years of control at $7.25M. Could be a huge addition for stability - depth - shutdown innings through the year & huge weapon in playoffs. I don’t think there’s a trade out there (while keeping Lee - Jenkins - all young guys on 26 man) for a #2 or #3 starter. Am assuming we’ll make the best of what’s currently rostered.

Playoff staff as of today: Lopez - Ryan - Paddack - Ober as needed Varland - Canterino/Alcala? - Jax - Stewart - Topa - Funderburk - Thielbar - Duran Seems like a solid group of 12 to me. The Team was 15-18 in Gray’s starts in 2023. Gray won one playoff game and picked off a guy at 2B to escape a jam in his last inning, the 5th. Next outing v. Houston was poor. IMO, the outcomes are what needs to be replaced or improved upon. I get that Gray typically would give the Team a better chance to be in the game but he wasn’t Bob Gibson. The Twins can be in the mix for the AL Pennant with the arms above. Lopez had an ERA that was 3.60 plus - around .85 runs per 9 higher than Gray……..ERA is one measurement of a pitcher (important!) but performing in the clutch is something that gets good outcomes. To me, our Pen is what the Club will lean on in the Playoffs to be clutch & help get Wins. With budget ceiling and potentially filling other needs, can’t see a front line starter being added - at least not until the Break, if needed.

DeSclafani isn’t any sort of savior so expectations should be 4.50 ERA, if things go well …….hopefully, he’s able to stay healthy and at least get 120 innings in through the year. He’s not going to elevate into the middle of the rotation. The addition is to protect Varland’s innings total & particularly his stress level……….4.50 ERA is 3 runs in 6 innings as an average - workable & probably the expectation for Varland as well. Tommy Pham and the other FA bats (Soler, Martinez, Belt???, etc.) don’t fit because Byron Buxton is on the Club. He’s gotta have room to DH up to 80 games this year to keep his bat in the line-up & to try & ensure he’s available in October. Need to get him in the line-up 75% of the time - that’s 40 games in CF - 40 games off or on IL - 80 games at DH. None of the guys above are affordable nor a fit. Pham is probably affordable but, to me, just isn’t good enough to consider. Burnes on a 1 year rental ($15.6M) doesn’t seem prudent - then add the fact that they don’t need OF help makes it seem like a near impossibility to pull off. Cease within the Division is distasteful since we’d be improving the ChiSox future. Can’t imagine coming together on a deal with them. Still seems to me that Clevinger for 2 years - 2nd year as player option - at $16M is affordable and saves all trade assets for a potential move at the deadline, if needed. Kepler was one of 4-5 guys in the game to hit .300 or better with 30 XBH or better after the Break last year. Gotta ride that into this season and try to extract a .250 BA with 22 plus HR & good defense in ‘24. Solid - not flashy. Wallner - Buxton/Castro/Gordon - Kepler Lewis - CC - Julien/Farmer - Kirilloff/(Miranda or Solano) 2 catchers That’s the 13……..if anyone is added, they need to be competent in CF (they then could play corner OF as well) to displace Gordon. I think they sign Solano as insurance at 1B and as a potential DH (Miranda has options) if Buxton gets hurt. Also, DHing Castro doesn’t work when Buxton is in CF because they will want Castro to be flexible to sub defensively & even as a late inning runner.

5th round pick v. 5th pick is a spread as well & a reason for Keith to gain security while the iron is hot. My comments were in relation to the number of young’s guys that could/can be key contributors, Lee probably isn’t the first guy that the Club tries to extend.

Can’t extend Lee with last year’s brief stint & limited success at AAA. If guys are extended, given offers to consider, Lewis - Julien - Jeffers should be up first IMO.

Can’t spend money on Taylor IMO! Too many potential internal options that, on the lower side of offensive production, are better or as good as Taylor. Solano, for under $4M, is a potential great value as the RH compliment to Kirilloff at 1B. Experienced & well liked!! He’s a safer option to Miranda - if Miranda has a good year, he is at best the same as Solano, with 6 - 8 more homers. I like the security Donny Barrels provides at his cost!

Julien is a 3.1 - 3.6 WAR guy in year two with a full season of AB’s v. RH pitching and a sprinkling of lefties. That’s with no contribution from defense. Can’t trade nor move him in the near term…………Kirilloff hit .270 & had 11 HR in about 1/2 a season with a .348 OBP & 117 OPS+ …. he’s playing 1B in ‘24! BOTH have 22-25 HR power over a season. CC is at Shortstop. Lewis, to me, is the athlete that can be flexible defensively. I target him in LF & 1B for ‘25. In ‘24 he could play some of each and the majority…..certainly, v. every left hander at 3B. Wallner, long term in RF. Ultimately, based on organization comments here at TD and deep dive stats guys, Lee grades out best at 3B if he can’t play SS. Lee - CC - Julien - Kirilloff Lewis - Buxton/Castro/Martin - Wallner in 2025. This year Lee can spell Lewis at 3B v. RH pitching some and allow Lewis to DH some……..maybe even a few games in LF. I don’t see him up in the Show until he’s tearing the cover off in St. Paul for at least 2-3 weeks! Probably late May or June. He’ll need a roster opening.

69 innings is great combined with an ERA under 3.00. If he regresses he’s still sub 4.00 ERA which is a nice addition! This guy with the couple of flier signings for relievers and Alcala - Canterino - Winder - Sands - Balazovic they ought to net 3 guys for the staff out of these 8 arms.

Julien/Farmer seems pretty straightforward at 2B.

IMO, Ryu maybe makes sense. Clevinger makes great sense! Montgomery is $25-$26M & Snell is holding out for $30M and a minimum of 9 years……..he’ll come back toward reality but nowhere near $20M. Martinez - really no defensive value & would compete with Buxton for AB’s. Seems redundant at DH & probably out of budget. Bellinger wants a bunch more money and bats LH in CF & 1B. Again, redundant & can’t afford. Liam Hendricks? He’s out for the year and doubt they can afford to pay him to sit with the risk of his future. CLEVINGER for the $$ really helps.

Not going to upgrade over Gray (last year) unless they sell some Pohlad Family assets and spend the $$ on Jordan Montgomery - not happening - Gray was 2 or 3 in Cy Young consideration (as you well know). When looking at real outcomes v. individual stats, Varland/DeSclafani could go better than 15-18, the Team’s record in Gray’s starts - a real chance, right? JD doesn’t really play defense & Byron will have to DH 60-80 games if he isn’t on the IL. Also, Martinez has to be near $20M per year……don’t see it as anywhere near reality. I think they take the few million $$ from Seattle and add a couple & sign Ryu for a hopeful 3-4 good months through the year. Maybe $10-$12M to him??

Julien was a Rookie - being platooned and struggling some v. LH pitching is pretty typical. Can probably expect similar results wit a bit of improvement over the next couple years - he’s 24. IMO, one cannot be the 2nd best hitter on the Club and play 80 games. ”If Farmer or Correa get hurt……”, how about When Polanco gets hurt? To me, no matter what other deals are made or not made, trading a guy from a position of depth and getting back $8M after trading $10.5M salary for 2 arms that cost $12.8M + a prospect of reasonable value ……..seems to be a smart move.

“Availability” ……….lack of, has been my reasoning for moving Polanco all along - attached to the Fact that we already carry a guy that has to DH because he’s physically limited. After Julien’s year and his age (24), he needs to play……he can’t be the principal DH & neither could Polanco because Buxton has to be assumed to be there for 50% of the schedule. A reliever that was in 69 games and had a 2.61 ERA can’t be viewed as nothing of value, regardless of age. Castro will play CF most of the time & Farmer is clear back-up at 2B. DeSclafani will have to earn his spot in the rotation…….nothing wrong with adding reasonable depth. Not a splash guy but 3 years out of 7 (2 years out w/injury in career) with ERA at 3.70 or less, worth a shot.

.263 BA - 16HR - .381 OBP - 130 OPS+ and he’s 24 years old………2.6 WAR with no defensive help in the number, over 109 games. IMO, cannot trade that away (plus a minimum of 2 other guys) for 1 year of Burnes. Not long enough and no chance of extending him. Beating a dead horse……I’d call Milwaukee every day trying to figure out how to get Devin Williams for 2 years and half the money of Burnes, at $7.25M. After adding DeScalfani & Topa……getting Williams might give Twins best Staff in the AL. Julien is a 3.0 plus WAR guy with a high on base % and pop in his bat at 2B - dream come true if he improves at all on defense.

IMO, in the trade we got the “#79 prospect” with Gonzalez as a RH hitting Corner OF……somewhat worthwhile. Maybe doesn’t get to the Majors? Darren Bowen is a big leap arm - we’ll see…..maybe a 15% chance of bringing MLB value? Extends the rotation by a guy and allows Varland to be under less stress, and he isn’t handed the 5th rotation spot. DeSclafani has had 3 years randomly spaced with ERA’s under 3.70………worthwhile. Topa threw 69 innings in 75 appearances with a 2.61 ERA in ‘23 - experienced as well ……..very worthwhile. He can have a positive affect in 55 games or more - slots in next to Funderburk as the #5 & #6 guys in the Pen. Getting $$ to cover his salary as well. I think, with Julien - Farmer - Castro - Gordon - Martin - Lee/Lewis at some point all in the 2B mix, the trade makes sense.

Anthony DeSclafani & a trio of unknowns from Mariners for Polanco……..not going to pencil in at #2 but he’s probably a #5 guy for a whole bunch of teams. He’s had a couple of years out with injuries - 3 really solid years - 4 years of not great over a career that’s gotten him to the Twins in age 34 season. Twins traded salary of $10.5M for $12M……..could have had Maeda back at that number. We’ll see!

Wallner will need days off occasionally and Castro seems to be the obvious best answer for that particularly v. LH pitching. (current roster obvious)

Unless he’s hurt or Kepler is hurt or he strikes out in every AB in Spring Training, Wallner is the starting LF. No way he’s not on the Big Club April 1st. Gordon being, what I would term as the 5th outfielder, is a possibility. He hits left handed and 75% of pitchers are right handed ……..hence the reason they may keep him. If Buxton is playing in CF and a lefty is starting, Castro may get some starts in LF as a switch hitter available from the right side. Very probable.

He’s 30 now - played over 100 games once at age 23. He’s a great athlete that’s fragile & it isn’t changing. Hoping for a 100 games in CF seems to be pretty unrealistic. He’ll miss games……maybe 2 stints of 20 games on IL? Hoping for 80 games at DH & 35-40 in CF. October is when he’s needed in CF!!!

Gordon is either traded or makes the team out of Spring Training. No options as you know……… Bubba though, he might be our 6th guy in CF……lots of injuries to get him on 26 man……maybe let him work on bat skills at AAA and as a real stretch, he’s a pinch running option in September?

Completely agree on Buxton……my HOPE is he plays CF 30-40 games……..80 at DH and he’ll get 425 AB’s and contribute. Ready to play CF 50% of the time in October!

Hicks had a very average 2023 (better than his previous few seasons though) had 106 OPS+ & .253 BA - 18 XBH in 269 AB’s. Hicks 2022 had 85 OPS+ & .216 BA - 19 XBH in 384 AB’s. Gordon broke his leg May 16, 2023 after a SLOW start. Gordon in 2022 had 111 OPS+ & .272 BA - 41 XBH in 405 AB’s. As they say, careful for what you wish for……..Gordon isn’t a tremendous, foolproof option, but Hicks should probably retire.

I really get the skepticism with Gordon after first 6 weeks of ‘23! He started to get some XBH in May & then broke his leg May 16. Not a bunch of results to instill confidence. I like the prospects of Martin’s future in CF & added IF depth if needed! However, Gordon had 405 AB’s in ‘22 in the Show - he had 9 HR - 4 triples - 28 doubles. He hit .272 and started at 2B for Polanco to start - then LF - then 43 games in CF…..111 OPS+. If Martin did that in ‘24 everyone would kiss his feet…….Gordon is out of options and probably deserves a shot if he hits much in Spring Training, IMO.