LA Vikes Fan

Mike's comment is the other factor to consider that you omitted - where is this team going next year and beyond? I understand being "satisfied" but not thrilled with another Kepler kind of year - .230/.315/.420 in the short term. I think people were very down on Kepler because we weren't even getting that until this recent hot streak. The bigger question is where we going with this? Kepler has an option next year at $10 million. That's more than the Twins were willing to pay for Eddie Rosario, who was a better player or at least a better hitter. Short of Kepler continuing this hot streak for the rest of the season, it sure seems unlikely that the Twins will pick up that option. If you start with the assumption that the current team's ceiling is a division title and maybe a couple of playoff wins or one playoff series win, the hope is we would improve going into next year to be a true contender. In order to do that, we need to know if Wallner or Larnach is an upgrade over Kepler and/or Gallo. The only way to find out is to play them on at least a semi regular basis at the MLB level. Keeping both Kepler and Gallo on the roster essentially makes that impossible. So where were headed is to a 2024 season without Kepler and/or Gallo and a complete mystery as to whether our current players can fill that gap. That's not a good way to run a railroad. I'd be fine with keeping Kepler this year if we traded Gallo and gave Wallner some run in left field. I am not as high on Wallner as are others here because of his high strikeout rate in the minors and his brutal defense, but he did have an intriguing short run last month so I think it's worth giving him a shot. Let's see if he can actually be a solid contributor or whether he's another high strikeout, bad defending, occasional power guy.

I agree. My thought was to see if we are sacrificing power as measured by slugging % in order to increase OBP and decrease our strikeout %. I'm really curious to see if adopting a better two strike approach and/or a more contact oriented approach is having a decreasing effect on overall power. It seems like the conventional wisdom is that by being more contact oriented, even if its only with two strikes, that teams sacrifice a lot of power/extra base hits. I think that's wrong and would love to see the data to see. Is there a source to find that data?

Thanks for doing this. . It would be interesting to track slugging % and runs per game. It might be a way to see if the new emphasis on contact and a better two strike approach has lead to more runs and how it has effected power.

Good analysis. The high strikeout guys problem is exacerbated when you look at the AAA roster - the best player is Wallner, another high strikeout (80 SOs in 225 ABs), feast or famine guy. Same for Larnach and Williams - both over 35% SO guys. Is there someone at AAA who's more of the sparkplug, high OBP guy? Julien was supposed to be that guy but he has 48 SOS in 120 MLB ABs and only 15 walks. Early yes, but his SO rate is going up lately, not down. Looking at the stats, is Andrew Stevenson an answer? Hard to buy that since he wasn't great for the Nationals in part time duty with a .687 career OPS and he's 29 years old. To me, the bottom line is that the players currently on the roster have to make the adjustments. This starts with Correa, Buxton, and Kepler (since we seem to be stuck with him). Let's see if that happens. If things don't change stringerbell is right, we won't win this awful division.

Agreed. You don't get results calling out individuals unless you're willing to lose those individuals from the team. Those individuals are counseled in private and the rest of the team knows who they are. Calling out insufficient effort by the group is a good start of a shake up. Now Rocco needs to put his money where his mouth is and either sit or lose players who don't make the adjustments he's looking for. I'm looking to see who loses playing time or is demoted/let go to reinforce the message.

Hey guys, Brock Stewart just went on the IL with right elbow soreness. Get ready for Pagan in a lot more medium high to high leverage situations. On the positive side, here's is a shot for Balazovic, Headrick and Winder to get a good BP slot (Ortega is a long shot). Hope somebody steps up.

I agree with one addition. He not only can't play in the field, he's pretty clearly not himself at the plate either. I really wonder if the better idea would be to just shut him down through the All Star break. Bring up Wallner and/or Miranda and let Buxton heal up for the second half. These half measures aren't working. Let's find out if Wallner can force a spot and try to heap up Buxton at the same time.

I'm with August. Nothing against Kepler or Gallo, they are what they are. They're unlikely to improve by much if at all over the course of the season. Occasional good games aside, neither is really helping this team have a chance win on a consistent basis. More of ten than not, they are getting in the way of winning. I would at least lose one of them so Wallner can get a shot. Frankly, if Rocco is willing to treat Kepler as a 4th OF/defensive replacement, start 2 games a week guy - which is what the really is - I would prefer to lose Gallo.

Fun win tiday, Ryan was outstanding. Here's a thought - can Lewis, Polanco, Kirilloff, or Julien play LF? Or better put, can Polo or Julien play LF, and will they let Lewis go to the OF (probably not) I'm looking for a way to give regular ABs to Lewis, Julien, Kirilloff and Polanco when Polanco comes back in a couple of weeks. I'm also assuming Julien is still hitting well enough to warrant MLB ABs and Buxton is the DH 5-6 days a week without playing in the field. How about moving Julien to 1B in a platoon with Solano, moving Kirilloff to LF, and playing Polo at 2B? Alternatively, put Julien in LF, leave Kirilloff at 1B and Lewis at 3B. Don't think moving Lewis to LF helps unless we think Polo or Julien can handle 3B. This requires either Kepler or Gallo going with the other riding the bench a lot, both going to get Wallner up.

Just saw that Larnach has been optioned back to St. Paul. there wasn't a mention of a corresponding move, but I have to assume it will be activating Buxton. I'm hoping this means Kepler is now the 4th Of since Buxton will be the DH. You put Gallo in RF, Kirilloff in LF, Solano at 1B, Julien at 2B, and Buxton at DH. All of them should be playing over Kepler.

06/14/23 Minnesota Twins optioned OF Trevor Larnach to St. Paul Saints.

I agree completely. This is the year to turn over the lineup and luckily we can do so while still having a real chance to win this very lousy division. Adding Kirilloff and Lewis as every day players and Ober as a regular in the rotation is a good first step. The next is to find a spot for Julien to lead off even when Polanco is back. It's also time to give Wallner some run, probably as a replacement for Kepler. I think Miranda will be back in July as a 1B/DH. On the pitching side, keep Varland in the rotation or try him as a late inning reliever when Maeda comes back. I would also try Headrick or Balazovic in the pen. Yes, that limits our options if we have a starter go down but I think it's a risk worth taking. Bottom line, this is a year to move up prospects, not trade them for short term vets. The only move I would make would be to trade guys at the A or A+ level for a decent reliever if we can do that. Otherwise, let's move some guys like Kepler, Pagan, or even Gallo, Solano, Farmer, or Larnach to create space. Play the guys we have on the way up.

I like the idea of Larnach for Adell. Both might benefit from a new environment. The sticking point is that the Angels don't need an corner OF and Ohtani clogs up their DH. They either want to keep Adell or trade him in a package for pitching. There may be a 3 way deal in there somewhere. I think where we disagree is not on whether Wallner deserves a shot - he does - but on what this team's needs are. We desperately need a competent leadoff hitter who can get on base and add some base stealing. Julien isn't perfect for that role because of his defensive inadequacies and he isn't going to remind anyone of Ricky Henderson, but he has been an on base machine in MiLB with some base stealing ability and has shown signs of that in his brief MLB work. Wallner has also shown signs of a good power hitter who plays an adequate corner OF. He's a #5-7 hitter. We have more than enough of those guys already so Wallner has to be a replacement for a similar profile like Gallo, Kepler, or Larnach. At least 2 of those guys need to be gone or at the end of the bench before there's really a spot for Wallner. Also, Kirilloff may need to play OF so we can get Polanco in the lineup at 1B and protect his legs while still playing Julien. That moves Wallner farther down the list for this year. Kepler and Gallo are likely not on the Twins next year so that's when he's likely to get his shot. Injuries can change all of this of course. You're right about the bottom line. Julien is getting his shot now. He has a couple of weeks (?) to play his way onto the team. If he does, that probably comes at the expense of others like Wallner.

Here's my take. I see this year as a chance to turn over the roster and still win a lousy division. This team as constructed is not a WS contender but could go someplace with a youth injection (or could tank, but worth finding out). If the team were to so what I think they should do I think the variability would go way up - higher upside, higher downside. Those things are - DFA/trade Kepler and Pagan, send Larnach to AAA. Play Lewis, Kirilloff, and Julien 5 days a week. Put Maeda in the bullpen to replace Pagan (adjust his contract), Gallo replaces Kepler, just as good in the OF/better offensive production. Buxton replaces Larnach while Julien stays because we need a leadoff hitter more than another power hitting, hitting strikeout corner OF. Polanco replaces Garlick. Typical lineup - Julien (2B/DH), Lewis (3B), Kirilloff (1B), Buxton (CF/LF), Correa (SS), Polanco (2B/DH), Gallo (RF), Jeffers/Vasquez (C), Castro/MAT(LF/CF). Bench - Solano (earned it with his hitting), MAT/Castro, Farmer, backup catcher. First men up from AAA - Wallner, Larnach, Miranda. IF we want Wallner up and can find him a spot to play, Solano gets traded. I just don't see a spot for him to play if we keep Gallo or Kepler and want to play Julien. Trading Gallo and a DFA/trade of Kepler both have to happen before Wallner gets called up. I think Julien is the guy who rates the longer look right now. If Julien or Lewis fails or Castro goes into a deep funk, then it's time for Wallner to get a shot.

06/06/23 Minnesota Twins placed CF Byron Buxton on the 10-day injured list retroactive to June 3, 2023. Left rib contusion.

Corresponding move is Buxton to the IL, retro 3 days.

Buxton to 10 day IL, Larnach up and hitting 5th tonight.

Would it help to play him in LF instead of CF, and move Castro/Gallo to CF? Yes, that hurts the defense in CF while improving it in LF but should help the offense. Taylor can be a defensive replacement. My thought is fewer chances in LF, fewer chances for injury., and more important to improv the offends that maintain the defense.

I think I understand the logic although not sure I agree with pulling Ober. Ober pitched 108 innings last season after pitching only 72 innings in 2022 and 108 in 2021 (both include MLB and MiLB). The general thinking to avoid catastrophic injury is to manage innings such that you only ramp up 20% a year. That would get Ober to 125-130 innings. We should be thrilled to get 140-150 innings from him this year. Saving a few bullets (innings) here and there may translate into 2-3 more starts in those 140-150 innings. Still, I would like to have seen him start the 7th last night. Let's find those saved innings in games where we're 2-3 runs ahead or behind, not a scoreless game with our primary divisional rival. I agree with the theory, disagree with last night's application of that theory.

I'm not a big Kepler fan at all - guy can't hit well enough for a corner OF - but I do think he would have a very valuable role on the Twins if used differently. He shouldn't be an every day player. He should be the classic 4th OF playing 2-4 times a week, INCLUDING in CF. I'd love to see him right now in a CF platoon with MAT. He should never hit higher than 7th in the order when he does play. The real problem is that Rocco likes to play him every day, won't play him in CF, and hits him too high in the order. That magnifies his weaknesses - hitting, particularly against LH pitching - and minimizes his real strength - Defense. Bottom line is the reason I think Kepler probably should be traded is that Rocco won't use him properly. It's a tough choice but I think that it's better that Kepler would be gone and those innings and ABs go to a combination of Wallner, Larnach, and Castro, rather than using Kepler as an every day OF hitting in the top 6 spots in the order.

Wallner first, regardless of who goes on IL. Don't forget that Castro can play 3B pretty well and is decent at 2B so we don't have to bring up an infielder if Correa goes out with Lewis and Farmer around to play short, and Castro and Solano to back up both 3B and 2B. If two guys go on the IL? Very tough because there isn't another healthy hot player in AAA outside of Wallner. I would guess Julien is next though, rather than Miranda unless Miranda has really started to come on.

Agreed. The offense is really the issue. I guess that's what makes the continued use of Kepler and Taylor in particular so frustrating. Both have a pretty consistent track record of offensive futility. It is very unlikely they will be better than their career averages and in the case of Kepler, it's becoming more and more evident that he is on the downward slope. Corner outfielder's need to hit and it's more important that they hit then that they field as long as there are at least adequate.Yes, defense important particularly in CF so I understand Taylor a little more. Personally, I would give Castro some run in CF if we're not going to play Buxton there and see if he can handle the position the field. The offense needs to improve. The most obvious ways to do that are to (1) replace Kepler with either Wallner or LArnach (when he's healthy) on an everyday basis - they may not be better but it difficult for them to be worse and the potential for better is there, (2) give Castro the majority of work in CF (4+ days a week) so we can get him, Lewis and Gallo all in the lineup together, and (3) get Buxton in centerfield 2-3 days a week with Castro there most of the other time. This would replace Kepler and Taylor in the lineup with Castro and either Wallner or Larnach once the latter is available, and potentially open up the DH spot two – three days a week to get guys a partial day off and/or to get Wallner, Larnach, Farmer, and Solano in the lineup more regularly – even potentially Jeffers when he is not catching. I think that would definitely help the lineup.

Julien looks like the classic guy who could be an asset in another year or two but isn't quite ready now. The difference between a quality AAA player and a quality MLB player is in the details and consistency. That's where he has his issues. He is inconsistent in the field, inconsistent at the plate, and needs a lot more refinement on defense. I think the bottom line is he just isn't quite ready yet and is probably more of a 2024 consideration in the 2023 asset although it is nice to have someone like that for depth. I do think he can be a quality major-league player at second base so I don't think we should move him to 1B or make him the centerpiece of a trade. Instead, have him continue to really focus on defense at AAA.

I agree. I would like to see them continue the trend by playing Wallner over Kepler, Julien over Solano, and Castro over Taylor. Doing this requires Buxton to play the field. Put Maeda in the bullpen when he's ready over Pagan and leave Ober and Varland in the rotation. To me, that's the youth movement we need.

I agree that we tend to be a little too negative here about the team. I think that's because we had higher expectations than were justified. The 'experts" predicted 80-85 wins. I think we're going to be on the higher end of that - after 1/3 of the season we projected to 84 wins (28-26 x 3 = 84-78) - and that's with injury issues. I think we may have overhyped ourselves into thinking this was a 90+ win team and anything less than that seems like a disappointment. I'm an optimist because I think the hardest thing to find is good starting pitching and we have a very good rotation that looks like it will be good in the future. We have some young talent that looks like it may be coming of age in Kirilloff and Jeffers, and we have Lewis, Julien, Castro, Wallner, and Larnach who may join them. All positive and all fun. Here's the 2 things that drag me down. First, Correa and Buxton are simply not performing and it's starting to look like it's more than just a slump. I don't think Buxton will perform as a DH. It's hard to do that and I think he would benefit from playing in the field, injury risk and all. Frankly, having him on the IL is not a whole lot less production than we've gotten from him the last 15-20 games. Correa looks hurt and should sit for 10 days if we think that will help. If not, move him to the 5 or 6 hole and leave him there until he hits. Second, I just don't understand why we won't embrace the youth movement. We need to accept that we probably aren't a WS contender and this could be a great year to play the younger guys, develop them, and probably still win the division. The old core simply isn't good enough. We need to play Kirilloff, Lewis, Castro, Julien, and Wallner every day to see what they got. Catch Jeffers 50% or more of the time. Instead, we trot out guys who don't really contribute much and won't be here next year - Kepler, Solano, Taylor, Pagan and soon Maeda (watch, he will go into the rotation and Varland will go to AAA). Gallo is ok but not really what we need. DFA Solano, bench or trade Kepler and Taylor, call up Wallner, see if there's a market for Gallo, and put Buxton in the field so the younger guys can play every day by opening up the DH spot and LF. This could be a fun team to watch and it just isn't very fun or very successful. I'm willing to take a chance on our short term success to make them more fun and improve our long term chances. Turn over the roster and go.