jmlease1

If you believe that the -0.5 WAR defines that player and who they will be for the rest of the season at this point in May...then no, there's no point in playing them or likely having them on the roster any longer. but this is where MLB roster management gets very challenging, because players aren't static and having a rough first 2 months doesn't necessarily mean they're bad for good. the Max Kepler example is instructive: Kepler in May of 2023 looked a lot like the left-hand version of Margot. Couldn't hit his weight, wasn't great in the field, only played RF...a lot of people (including me) were ready to move on. And we were wrong: Kepler was great in the second half and huge contributor to the team. The other side of it was Gallo, who after a hot start just stopped making any consistent contact, drove everyone crazy with the whiffs, and his OF defense had declined some as well. We wanted him gone...and we were right. He never really got any better, but stuck around because of the injuries and was left off the postseason roster. Do you know for sure exactly who Margot is? Do you know for sure that he's going to be helpless against RHP, mediocre against LHP, and no real value added in the OF for the rest of the season? that's the conundrum for the Twins right now, and I presume why they're going to keep playing him against LHP to see if he can add value and is worth keeping. because the other options are hoping Wallner or Larnach can handle LHP or that Martin (who has not played to his ability in the OF and been sadly fairly similar to Margot in production) is ready for another go. the only reason Margot got left in after Corbin left was because the game was looking out of reach, otherwise we would have seen Larnach (who has cooled off substantially and has been pretty bad during this losing streak). It's not about making him smile. It's about trying to get as much data as possible to see whether there's something worth keeping once guys get healthy. I still lean towards no, but let's see how it goes until Lewis is back.

Thrilled to see Brooks Lee (and Walker Jenkins) back to active duty. Looking forward to seeing how Morris does in AA; guessing he might have had some nerves to start the game, lol. he still did ok. I'm intrigued by Yasser Mercedes. he's off to a heck of a start in rookie ball this year, but maybe I just get overly excited about players who hit triples. (They're so fun!)

no, they are saying that Baldelli isn't managing every regular season game like it's a playoff game. The roster is different in the regular season and you have to play the long game when it's still May. The season doesn't end if you lose 2 of the next 3 and you simply can't get through a season if you work everyone to death in May rather than try to extract value out of every part of your roster. Margot has been bad this season and that acquisition isn't looking good. But against a LHP, he's not a terrible option when you look at our outfield. Kirilloff has been struggling and Kepler has always been much weaker against LHP, so if you want to give Kepler a bit of a break...it's all reasonable. Baldelli doesn't control the 26-man roster (or the 40-man). I'm sure he has input, but the final say is with the front office, and they're not ready to cut bait on Margot. Trying to find ways to use him that will help the team and/or not hurt the team is Baldelli's job. remember, refusing to ever play a guy on the roster can cause clubhouse problems too. And if they can get Margot going to where he's value-added against LHP, there's at least a role for him. Defensively he looked better last night too. I'm still not a fan, and I think as the roster gets healthier with Lewis getting closer you need to think hard about whether he's worth hanging on to...but for now, you need to still use your whole roster. Nice to see the team steal a couple of bases last night. There are some good runners on this squad and I'd like to see them attack the bases more. Of course, this requires guys to get on base consistently.

Walker Jenkins Talent is massive, not downgrading him for injuryBrooks Lee See above.Emmanuel Rodriguez tempting to move him up since he's playing and producing so well.David Festa Looking more MLB-ready all the timeMarco Raya Can't move him up higher without more innings, but the talent is thereGabriel Gonzalez lot of upside here, but is already doing good things in high A at 20Charlee Soto long way to go, but big-time abilityBrandon Winokur high ceiling...might be lower floorLuke Keaschall having a fine yearTanner Schobel AA has been harder on himZebby Matthews Has to be on the list with his performance. Might deserve to be higher.Danny De Andrade D is good...will need to hit better. But moved up every year and earned it.Yasser Mercedes super young but super talentedKala'i Rosario hasn't exactly crushed it in AA, but still has a talented batAustin Martin last time on the list, I think? he can play in MLBCory Lewis The injury is worrisome and pushes him downRayne Doncon good hitter, will likely move to 3B at some pointSimeon Woods Richardson probably his last time on the list too...Jaylen Nowlin still has things to work on, but has held his own in the Texas LeagueRubel Cespedes probably too old for some, but he's been hitting the heck out of the ball. Lot of good prospects in the Twins system. They also have guys who won't be seen as high-end prospects, but will have legit MLB potential by the time they get to AA and AAA. Had to downgrade some guys for injury: can't have Canterino or Prielipp on here at this point; they just aren't pitching. Toughest omission? Probably Pierson Ohl, who is doing well in AA and has gotten it done at pretty much every stop. but there are fair questions whether his stuff will hold up.

Castro has earned a little stick for his defensive lapses recently. But he's still been good overall. I was happy to see the twins draw some walks against the Yankees, but apparently right now it's an either/or situation with the offense: walks or hits, but not both! Not great. Offense has really looked flat the last 2 games. 7 or 8 baserunners a game simply isn't enough. (This is not news) I'm not panicking or anything, but it's really annoying to lose to the Yankees. I hate losing to the ChiSox the most, but then it's the damned Yankees. (probably followed by Cleveland?) I hate the arrogance and entitlement of the franchise, I hate how the media treats every midwest club that plays them as automatically being lesser, unworthy of attention or interest. I hate the fact that they can make stupid trades and signings and simply buy their way out of it. (I do love the fact that they haven't won a pennant or a title in 15 years, though, despite all their money. because it burns their fans up) Hope the Twins can at least avoid the sweep. we're right in the division race, and I'd hate for a sweep to the damned Yankees to make people turn on this team again. because it feels like there's a portion of the fanbase that's looking for a reason to trash the club again, and that's really no fun at all.

Here's the thing though: if you focus on the downside/negatives for your pitching prospects, every team's prospect list is going to look pretty crap. Someone coming in from the outside who ready your list above would think the twins pitching prospects have little hope and low value...and that's simply not the case. Festa still has an issue with BB/9 that he needs to show he can correct. His last 5 starts have been significantly better in that respect than his first 3 starts of the year, so it's looking up....but reading this you'd think he was trending down. Raya is still a starter; the fact that you don't approve of the development path they have him on related to his pitch counts doesn't change the fact that the organization and baseball professionals still slot him as a starter. Soto is 18 with a flamethrower for an arm that they skipped past rookie ball. Culpepper only has 4 starts this season. the BB/9 is too high, but he's also still (like Festa) been successful at limiting runs. Lewis (as noted) is hurt. Sadly, that happens with pitching prospects. A lot. Same with Canterino and Prielipp. (arguably neither is a prospect any longer because of their health...but let me know when you find a team that has less than 3 of their top 12-15 pitching prospects with injury issues.) Morris: you started with the negative again (he's repeating a level) in order to downgrade any accomplishment he's made this year, apparently. Yes, he's repeating the level this season...but he also got an early promotion last season and he's hardly old for the level. Matthews: basically the only guy on the list so far you didn't put a strike on (though the "fingers crossed" comment suggests you don't have confidence in him) SWR: arguably, the comment about his rookie status is a suggestion that he doesn't count, but overall, this is fairly neutral Lares: "holding his own"? he's got a 2.19 ERA and a WHIP of 1.014 at age 20. is keeping the ball in the park nicely too. Bowen: The BB/9 isn't great, but it's much more sustainable when you don't give up hits. 5.6 H/9 is great. He's a little older and should advance fast, but he's moved up a level both years as a pro. If you look at the upside of all of these prospects, you get a very different picture than looking at the downside/flaws. An accurate representation should likely land somewhere in the middle. Twins seem to have a philosophy of pitcher development in bulk, probably knowing that there are going to be injuries and bumps along the way. they'll take a risk on a high impact arm with an injury history (Canterino, Prielipp) but also load up on college pitchers from lesser known schools with characteristics they think they can develop (Festa, Lewis, Matthews, Culpepper). Lot of guys on this list that have a chance to pitch in MLB. But if the standard for a pipeline is having a potential "ace" at every level, I think you're always going to be disappointed. Much as you will if your first instinct is to look for the downside to every prospect.

they used to defer to veterans preference on this, and now they're being more directive, and it's hard to believe that spending a few games in AAA (or even Ft. Myers) so you can get your timing tested in game situations and show you can actually run in a game environment is a bad idea for almost any of them.

Not sure this is really true; Wallner and Larnach both came up as corner OF and have played about to expectations defensively. Lewis was a SS in the minors and slotted in just fine at 3B. Miranda has needed to learn 3B on the job, but there's also about where the opportunity was for him as he came up in the minors: his preferred position was 2B, but we had a bunch of guys there. Julien had been playing 2B in the minors, but barely had more than 2 years in the minors before coming up to MLB. The missed minor league year in 2020 messed up development for a lot of guys. It's just not that unusual for prospects to move around defensively as teams always want to try and keep them at the more demanding defensive position as long as they reasonably can. I think Martin will be fine in the OF, and I'm ok with him going back down when Buxton comes back. (and props to the Twins for having Buck do a rehab stint in Saint Paul, regardless of whether he likes it or not) Hopefully he'll play CF-LF in Saint Paul to get more comfortable there. I'd have given him more time in CF over LF (he's played it a lot more in the minors and done well there) but that's the way it goes. He's far from a lost cause

Compared to Delmon Young and some of the other nonsense (Willingham and his 4 feet of range!) we've run out in the outfield, I'm not worried about Martin.

Excellent start by Ohl. Interesting pitcher: doesn't walk a lot of guys, keeps the ball in the park, and looks like someone who can chew up a bunch of innings. I'll be watching where his H/9 lands at the end of the season; if he's keeping it around 8 or so I think that'll be a good sign. Would not be surprised at all if he gets some time at AAA this season; he's already got 125 innings at AA now and he's been effective. He's not overwhelming or anything, but he's been getting it done. Great to see him rack up 10 K's! E-Rod just rolls along, doesn't he? Seems to know the strike zone pretty darn well. he doesn't seem to have problems hitting against LHP either, which would be exciting if his relatively neutral splits continue. Not bad at all for guy at 21 in AA. If he's able to refine his approach to make a little more contact on pitches he deigns to swing at...goodness he's going to be a heck of a hitter.

I'm really happy to see Festa doing better in limiting the free passes recently, but until he gets the BB/9 under 4 it's still a fair concern. That said, he clearly has the pitches to compete and I expect to see him debut in MLB some time this season. I think I ranked him 5th in my Twins prospect ratings? This is what you want from your player development group, to be able to build up a late round pick into a viable MLB player. It's great scouting too, because he wasn't exactly destroying the competition at Seton Hall; he had a fine senior season, but just ok K rates, not a ton of innings to judge from, etc. But they saw something they could build with and have increased his velocity where he can compete. I think he'll be competing for a rotation spot in 2025.

I hate the Yankees. I've always hated the Yankees. I hate losing to the Yankees. I hate tuning into a national baseball broadcast when the Twins are playing the Yankees and they spend the first 14 minutes of the pre-game only talking about the Yankees, and then give the Twins 6 minutes (and show they don't know very much about the Twins either, spending more time on Carlos Santana than Ryan Jeffers). Last segment was a dumb betting angle, and of course 2 of the 3 bets were about the Yankees. I now hate TBS almost as much as I hate the Yankees. not a good game for the Twins. Castro was really rough out there and the whole OF defense was unimpressive. Paddack was disappointing; just too hittable and struggled to finish guys off. The bullpen did well to give the team a chance, but the offense was very meek. I'm increasingly concerned about the Twins inability to draw walks; we're bottom 5 in baseball in BB/G and we need more baserunners. Not getting a single walk last night really hurt. I hope the easy grounders and fly balls were more aesthetically pleasing enough for people, but I'd rather draw some free passes and start filling up the basepaths

yeah, I saw this too. I'd like more information on it, but there seems to be some on-field and off-field reasons that Alcala is not favored by the organization and it's almost certainly more than just the manager. But there hasn't been much that's gotten out about it, other than Disco Dan mentioning the bit about not covering home. From a performance perspective, he's been effective in 1 inning stints and can't seem to go 2 innings. the option issue (and his prior lack of health/availability) I'm sure are part of why he's getting bounced up and down, but there's more going on here that they're not saying.

You've obviously settled on a narrative here, but I don't think you have a lot of evidence to back up the statement that the Twins only care about HRs and don't care about defense. If they didn't care about defense, why would they have brought Vazquez in as a catcher or Santana in to play 1B? I hope for his sake that Miller has figured something out at the plate, but keep in mind he hit 4 of his HRs in a 3 game stretch and hasn't hit one since. So is it that he's figured something out, or he had a good weekend? Is his improvement at the plate because of the Dodgers superior coaching and development or because he's repeating the level? The reality is that offense is more impactful in winning games, and this is one of the reasons Kiersey hasn't gotten a chance yet: there are still real questions about his hitting. He broke out in AA after repeating the level at 26. When he moved up to AAA last season he hardly lit the league on fire, and that was 100% a hitters environment. he's having a great season so far, and I'm happy to have him in the system, but it's fair to wonder if he's capable of being a league average hitter, and as a LH hitter can he fill a need to whack LHP? Because he didn't in 2023.

Looks like the conversion to the bullpen is working for Stankiewicz. Be nice if he could tick those Ks up a little higher, but the WHIP is impressive and he's always been good at keeping the ball in the park. Curious to see how he does in Wichita this season and what kind of future he has as a bullpen piece. Good for Sabato in having a strong start to his season at AA, but it's only 5 games. Maybe he can earn a promotion if he can keep this up into July, but there's a reason he slid through the Rule 5 draft.

Part of my concern was that Santana would get exposed by playing too much; considering how poorly he's still hitting against RHP, I think that's borne out at least a little. He's having an excellent May, but struggled so much early that he's still not quite a league average hitter, which is not great at 1B. I'm glad he's not washed up, but I'm not ready to definitively say I was wrong about Santana either. While Kirilloff's struggles make is reasonable to run Santana out every day, I still think he's going to get exposed if he's playing too much. Frankly, when Lewis comes back I hope that Miranda sticks and gets some time at 1B.

Just keep piling up those series wins, Twins. I love seeing it, especially on the road. Good job by Funderburk getting it over to Duran to finish it; getting Jax another day off seems like a good idea right now. Ober was pretty great. Toronto battled him hard, especially early in fouling off pitches and taking him deep into counts, but he didn't get rattled and didn't let them off the hook with cheap walks. Excellent performance, and love that he got into the 7th. (Toronto only had 2 hits and drew 1 walk! love it) I'm definitely worried about Kirilloff; he looks pretty bad at the plate right now. I don't know if he has options left but I'd definitely ask if he's fighting an injury right now. Because he sure does look like the "Kirilloff ain't healthy" Alex right now. Big hit by Santana, who has to be around league average now. And after such a slow start that's not bad. (Margot on the other hand, still looks bad) Good baserunning by Correa to score on Kepler's double. He ran hard the whole way and scored pretty easily, but that additional run sure helped.

As per usual when Noah Miller comes up, people leave off the fact that we got Rayne Doncon back in that deal, a prospect with similar value. And while Miller is hitting much better this season, the fact that the Dodgers are having him repeat the level does suggest that they might have some concerns over his bat too. Margot isn't working out very well so far; his defense has been very disappointing and if anyone here says they knew that he was going to have the worst defensive season of his career and look like he might be in severe decline as a fielder at age 29...I'm sorry, I don't think I believe you. He's been functional at the plate against LHP, which is the primary reason he was brought here...but he's unplayable right now against RHP, so that combined with poor looking defense makes him not very useful. When to cut loose a veteran player is a bit more complicated than we'd like. It's not like playing fantasy baseball, where in most leagues there's always another veteran OF that you can pick up and take a flier on. If we cut Margot now, he's gone and we're not even halfway through May. And if Kiersey and Martin don't produce, then are we in trouble? The other aspect is the Kepler/Santana aspect of this. I was getting ready to cut Kepler loose at midseason (as were a lot of people here) and that would have been a massive mistake. The snap-reactions on Santana from his early struggles would have run him out of town too...after today's performance he's back to being almost a league-average hitter (offense is down this year, an OPS around .700 is better than you think). Is Margot Gallo or Kepler? Is this who he's going to be, or can he pull himself back up like Santana? I suspect the Twins will give him more rope. I'm not opposed to it right now, but once Buxton and Lewis get back I feel like Margot had better show something or we might be able to fairly say we've seen enough. Kiersey is doing really well this season and that's great. I love having depth like him at AAA, because I remember what it was like 2 years ago when the season got ruined because we didn't have enough competent outfielders. We're 1/4 of the way through the season, and early games matter just as much as late games...but let's not pretend there's not risk is dumping veterans before summer even starts.

what counts as a "frontline starter"? If it's "someone you'd trust to start a playoff game" then we have several guys who have that potential. If it's "#1/ace" then maybe not...though the jury is still out on someone like Soto who has immense upside, but is 18. If the issue is that all of their pitching prospects have questions they need to answer...get used to it, because it's perishingly rare to have a pitching prospect with no questions. Raya has had some injury issues in the past and the Twins are clearly being cautious in his development, and they've been pretty clear about it. I don't think they're really hiding anything. YMMV on whether they're doing the right thing by keeping pitch counts down and not letting Raya throw more (I've been skeptical) but there are a lot of pitching injuries these days, so maybe they're right.

He's off to an outstanding start. I'm impressed with how he's added velocity while still maintaining that great control. I'm glad to see him in AA; as a college pitcher who is a little older, how he does against more advanced hitters will count a lot more for his prospect standing than beating up on A-ball kids. It'll be interesting to see if he ends up paring back his pitch mix as he continues this season or if he can maintain the full slate. But even if he drops 1-2 of these to focus on his strongest offerings it's a heck of a base to work from. He's definitely trending up. He'll never make the national prospect lists; he's turning 24 this month and that will DQ him from a lot of lists simply based on age. (there are prospect evaluators who will always prefer the 19 year-old kid in A-ball with measurables over the 24 year-old in AA with results) But from a Twins perspective, who cares about rankings? He's developing into a potential rotation guy and on a path to debut in 2025. Reminds me a little of Joe Ryan in that respect.

Very nice start by Festa. I still have concerns about his control and the free passes, but the stuff is real and this was the kind of start that has people excited about him. Not the first excellent outing from him this season, and he's on a good path. I still think Varland is the next man up if/when we need another starter, if possible, but Festa is doing what he needs to do. I like seeing him go 6, so it looks like they're letting him go a little deeper as the season rolls on. Be great for him to be pushing for a chance in June. Keaschall is playing like a guy who wants a mid-season promotion. Worth keeping an eye on his power production to see if he can tick that slugging up a bit more, but he's doing very well and looks to have a solid professional approach.

Tough loss. Toronto had not been hitting well, so to let them up off the mat isn't great. But it's not like there isn't talent there. Shame that SWR struggled so much against his former organization. How he learns to finish off MLB hitters is going to define his success and he didn't get it done here. Bullpen really got torched, but it's sort of funny to see the overreactions here; a week ago people were clamoring for Cole Sands to be the set-up man, now you have declarations that he's nothing more than a mop-up guy. Jackson's the guy to be the most concerned about: he seems to have dropped a little velocity and he's not been particularly effective, and at his age that's worrisome. Okert has had 2 poor outings in a row, but overall he's been good enough that throwing him on the fire at this point makes little sense. But with Thielbar & Okert in the 'pen we probably don't need Funderburk to be a mop-up lefty. Not having Stewart or Topa is stretching the bullpen...but as noted by Gleeman & the Geek: this is what happens when you're in a lot of close games and winning. The Alcala situation is interesting. He'd been successful as a 1 inning guy, very good against RH and someone that looked like he could be trusted in the 7th inning. But he's been used to go 2 innings this year and the second inning hasn't gone well, so is it that he's not great or being used wrong? There was also a note from Hayes that Alcala is in the Twins doghouse for a bunch of reasons and it sounded like it was about both in-game actions (failing to cover home, etc) and outside the game (unknow?). Who knows. Get 'em on sunday and win the series. Any series win is a good one, especially on the road. No panic.

some of it is probably cyclical and will bounce back next season (or maybe even this one), but teams are also incentivized to not stash their best prospects in AAA in order to gain an extra year of team control the way they used to, so that might have some impact as well. Kala'i Rosario is having a solid season so far in AA. He's not destroying everything in his path like Emma, but he's not doing badly at all for his age-21 season in AA. He's a guy I keep watching.

There almost needs to be a new category for players like SWR (and Varland, or Martin, or Wallner) where they're not really prospects any longer but haven't established themselves as MLB players quite yet. They're the unfinished products who have the talent to play in MLB but might not have the finishing touches to put themselves in MLB for good. Because at a certain point it really doesn't make any sense to compare SWR to someone like Soto, when they're so far removed from each other in level. I've always been a fan of SWR, and he was the poster child for how to get your developmental cycle completely screwed up, so seeing him having success is exciting. Three organizations before he turned 21, missing an entire (and critical) season because of the pandemic, getting an early promotion to AA that he almost certainly wasn't ready for, having a season interrupted by the national team where he didn't even get to pitch...by the time he got to MN I'd argue he was working on talent and guts alone. Great work by him and the staff to get him to a place where he can be a professional pitcher. Where he can be consistent enough to make a mechanical change and stick with it. I think he's still going to have a bump or two along the way, but I would not be shocked at all for him to be a rotation mainstay for 2025.

Excellent game from Ryan, marred only by the IKF homer. But Ryan was really good and the Jays certainly have talent in that lineup, even if several of them have been struggling so far this season. The HR was frustrating because it's IKF, but overall Ryan has been doing a good job limiting HRs this season and I'm really impressed with how he's shrunk the free passes so far this season. He looks like he has more confidence in his off-speed pitches this year (I like that splitter a lot, and it's been very effective for him) and he's doing a good job mixing his pitches, which should let his fastball play up a bit. Still need a little more from the RH hitters when we face a tough lefty like Kikuchi (who has been a monster this season) but we scraped through it. Jax has wobbled a bit lately, but I think he'll be fine. Hopefully we can find some room to give him an extra night off here and there. Time for some other guys to step up. I loved seeing Duran come in for the 8th: he's an absolutely dominant reliever, and I hate it when those guys get turned into "9th inning guys". I'd much rather have Duran be the fireman and shut down the opposition's best hitters in the late innings than come in with a 3-run lead in the 9th to face 6-7-8. Good start to the series. Keep it rolling, Twins!