jmlease1

As noted above, for the 2023 hitters leaderboard at BP, they have Vazquez 8th for the Twins with a 0.8 WARP and Jeffers 12th with a 0.5. Which is relevant in talking about where PECOTA landed for their predictions on Twins players; if their final WARP calculations are so out of whack from where fWAR and bWAR landed those two players, it makes me question their metrics period. Maybe the punishment for Jeffers taking some ABs at DH is more significant than I thought? But Vazquez had a staggeringly bad year at the plate and Jeffers was excellent. I haven't seen any defensive metrics that put Jeffers so much further below Vazquez as to make up that difference, let alone exceed it.

The fact that Petty reached AA at age 20 is impressive development. 18 starts is close to a full season's worth (20-22 is a full mix for a guy who doesn't miss time for injury or being skipped out of caution) His lack of innings is worrisome much in the same way some of us are concerned about Marco Raya for the Twins. Petty was always talented, which is why the Twins drafted him in the first place, but he's still another 2 years away from entering an MLB rotation for more than a cup of coffee (it seems likely that he'll spend next season in AA and 2025 in AAA pushing for an chance in MLB, if he stays healthy and doesn't have any developmental bumps). What's especially interesting about Petty is how few HRs he's given up. If he can maintain a HR/9 rate under 1, then I'll be very impressed. (he gave up zero dingers in 2023! I'm sure that's a bit of a fluke, but so far he's been terrific at keeping the ball in the park. It will be interesting to see if he can continue that as his innings increase) Gray fit the Twins window better and was more of a sure thing. The Reds were in rebuild mode and could afford to wait and absorb the risk. The fact that the QO was an opportunity for the Twins makes this a big win on the trade regardless of what Petty does because of the additional value it brings in from sources outside of the Reds. Clever way to make a win-now move while still getting future investment.

I'll admit to not understanding how Jeffers still finished below Vazquez in BP's WARP.

Pitcher wins don't tell you very much about how good of a starter they actually were. Are you suggesting Sonny Gray is likely for TJ? Why? His injury issues over the years haven't shown elbow problems. Good luck signing anyone of Gray's caliber that is 25-26 for a 2-3 year contract!

I feel like "Finding a front-line starter to replace Sonny Gray" and "Gamble on another high-upside starting pitcher" are an either/or proposition for this team...unless you are willing to consider Chris Paddack as an option to fill one of these roles. I just don't see the Twins adding more than one starting pitcher with the rotation currently looking like Lopez, Paddack, Ryan, Ober, and Varland. I think it's very possible (even likely) that they will look to add a veteran to compete for that last starting spot, but seems much less likely that they'll add 2 (unless they convince Varland that his future is in the bullpen). It's hard to know exactly how good Paddack will be as a starter next year but he was solid pre-injury for the Twins and his stuff looked excellent in his bullpen stints this fall and with a healthy offseason to prepare he should be ready form Day 1. Lopez and Ryan are locks, and Ober should be as well. Ober was really good and showed it's possible for him to stay healthy. I'm more interested in looking for internal options to shore up 1B and provide insurance for Kirilloff, unless they get an early indicator that he won't be ready for spring training. Miranda seems to be an obvious fit with his RH bat, but I would also be telling Severino to work on his 1B skills in the offseason (Julien too). Making sure they manage CF effectively will be key. They were smart last season bringing in Michael A. Taylor to ensure they had a quality fielder regardless of Buck's health. I feel like the roster is tighter now, but Castro's emergence as an effective defender basically anywhere but catcher certainly helps, and Austin Martin might be ready to step in as well. If they bring back someone like Taylor, they probably need to move an infielder? (Farmer or Polanco seems the most likely choice; both have real value as trade candidates, but also play in areas where we have depth. Julien can slot in at 2B for Polanco just fine, and we'd still have Lee, Martin, and even Miranda as depth options to come up to deal with injuries; Farmer is a backup for us who could start for other teams and I think the front office would be comfortable with Castro, Lewis, or maybe even Lee backing up SS and we have options to support 2B and 3B as well.) I'm not sure what the right choice is, and suspect the twins won't know either until December when they get a better feel for where Buxton's knee is.

Really rough for Twins hitters. I don't want to read too much into this: while we've seen some players use the AFL as a springboard to bigger things, other players have gone down there and done little but still kept right along on their prospect course. But it's still disappointing to see really none of the hitters doing well.

And now the Astros are getting handled by the Rangers. Astros are getting no production from 2B, SS, C, CF, and RF; have no bench, and now that Valdez has been found out they need Urquidy to dominate again or they're going to be down to one starter they can trust. reality is, the Astros got a massive performance from Alvarez (who continues to destroy everyone) and had a few bursts from other parts of their lineup (Abreu, Altuve, etc) to squeak by the Twins. Regarding Farmer: it's going to be interesting to see what the Twins do there. He's been a gamer for them, hits lefties well, and can slide into a lot of positions well defensively. Moving him would open up opportunity on the roster, but he was also a solid veteran presence and the preferred backup to Correa. I guess it would really come down to what kind of value you could get for him; I doubt I'd want to move him for an A-ball reliever and that kind of return would suggest a salary dump that would be...disappointing. The Twins depth in the infield with Correa, Polanco, Julien, Lewis, Castro, Kirilloff, Miranda, Lee, and Martin does give them some room to use Farmer as a trade chip.

I really don't get the people who are definitively stating that the Twins have to move on from Buxton. I assume they're saying it because they think he's damaged goods and will never play a full season or close to it again. So...just exactly how are they supposed to move on from his guaranteed contract? Do you really expect them to just eat $15M a year for the next however many seasons? If you're arguing they're supposed to trade him...until he shows he's healthy, other teams probably aren't interested in his contract, so not only are you not getting anything in return right now, in fact you're probably having to take money back or pay off some it ongoing. Alternatively, if there's a real trade market, then other teams (who would have to have him do a medical to complete a deal) would have to think he's going to be able to play. This isn't fantasy baseball. "Just move on from this guy" doesn't really work when you have someone signed to a substantial long-term deal. But again, with the people pushing this narrative there is this whiff of contempt for Buxton's injuries coming off the comments, as if he's morally culpable for getting hurt that I find very strange and more than a little toxic.

This. I generally think Rocco is fine as a manager. But I've also felt that baseball managers are frequently overrated for their actual impact on a team. (at least from an in-game, tactical sense) There's a handful that are superior, and a larger handful that aren't very good, but most of them fall into the middle where if their players are good, they look good. I do think one of the areas a manager has the biggest impact is in the clubhouse, and that's the area that's easily the most difficult for fans to evaluate, at least until things go south and the leaks start a-flying (by then, the deal is usually done, I'd say). Right now, Rocco by all appearances has the support of both the front-office and his players, with good professional relationships. That's a good thing, and it stayed that way even during the prior two disappointing seasons, which is often when the cracks appear. I'd say he's ranged from average to above-average in his time with the Twins. Moving on from him probably accomplishes little.

Cutting down on the Ks is the easiest and most simplistic answer. Getting more consistency in the team's offense will likely take more than that, but subtracting Joey Gallo from the lineup probably won't hurt. Better health would go a long ways: a healthier Buxton & Correa are both likely to hit for higher averages next season, even if both are still likely to have a big chunk of strikeouts as part of their stat lines. More time from Polanco & Lewis will step the averages up as well. Jeffers had an excellent season, but there's also a real likelihood of regression on his part (that BABIP suggests he got a little lucky in addition to his good work). He could be a contender to actually K more. Replacing Michael A. Taylor with Austin Martin could make an impact as well; Martin is definitely a higher contact hitter and less K-prone, but presuming he'll do well in his first tastes of MLB might be putting the cart before the horse. Despite all the Ks, the Twins still finished the season 10th in MLB in OPS+. The team did fairly well in baserunning last season, but has room to grow with Lewis & Julien being on the team from Day One and also getting more opportunities, along with better health from someone like Buxton. More stolen bases and taking some extra bases while still maintaining their quality success rates will also help keep runs flowing next season. Julien has shown real ability to swipe a bag in the past, and Royce certainly has the wheels for it. A little more focus on situational hitting, a little better health, running a bit more, no more Gallo...the Twins will likely still K more than some folks find acceptable, but they should also do a little better overall offensively. they were pretty strong in the second half of the season and no one that's expected to be a significant offensive contributor returning should be looking at immediate age-related regression/fall-off.

It's a pretty good and fair list of questions so far. I assume in part 2 there will be some things about the rotation and the bullpen (as there almost always will be). I tend not to worry about the concept of too many guys for some positions, like the Twins potentially have for the infield. These things do tend to sort themselves out in time, either through injury or ineffectiveness...or someone seizing the day and taking a position over through superior play. And while I'm as big a fan of Brooks Lee as anyone, he did not exactly crush AAA as a hitter, he's barely more than a full season in the minors as a pro player, and it would hardly be a sin if he starts next season in AAA with Royce Lewis starting at 3B in MLB. I tend to think Bonnes is right that there won't be a big RH bat added to this squad, for all the reasons stated...but I do think the team also still likes Miranda and I'm also interested in how Severino might fit into this equation as well (he's a switch hitter but looked very solid hitting from the right side this season). I suspect Severino's future is at 1B and while I don't expect him to start the season with the Twins, I do think he's got interesting upside as a hitter and will be good depth in AAA.

I'm very much hoping that this addresses the knee issue and that Buxton will be able to come into training camp fully healthy and ready to go. Regardless, I think the team will be careful to make sure he gets regular rest and DHs to try to make sure he gets through the season healthy and ready to go when the playoffs start, assuming the team is back in contention again (as they should be considering their talent level and their competition in the division). I think what bothers me the most about some of the Buxton commentary is how many people seem to treat his injury issues as if it's a personal and moral failing. As if by being a highly paid player they should now be immune to injury and if they get hurt than it's "eff that jerk". (The Mauer comparison is probably apt in that we saw similar scorn heaped upon Joe for his injuries, as if he wanted to get hurt or something.) If there's one thing I'm pretty certain of, it's that Byron Buxton ain't dogging it. If anything his desire to play and try to help the team probably leads to him not going on the IL soon enough. (Much like Sonny Gray will always say he can go another inning, Buxton would probably always say "yeah, I can play" if asked. "I'll be ready to go tomorrow, I'm sure of it!" lol) That's commendable, but not always helpful. The Twins have to prepare for next season to have backup options in place if Buxton's knee doesn't respond like we hope. Maybe that's bringing back Michael A. Taylor, maybe that's trusting in Austin Martin, or maybe it's finding a way to keep Nick Gordon or an Andrew Stevenson type around in the organization. But there's no question in my mind that the Twins are a better team with Byron Buxton playing, and I hope he can patrol CF next season, slam some HRs, and terrify the occasional OF into screwing up a relay because he flew out of the batter's box at Warp Factor 9.

It was an intelligently constructed roster overall, and addressed the biggest weaknesses from the 2022 Twins: depth and starting pitching. It wasn't near perfect: Gallo was a real miss (one great month doesn't make the next 4 worth it), they didn't shore up the bullpen early enough, and the Buxton DH experiment was problematic as the season went on. They also carried a 13th pitcher too often that didn't get used and limited their own options. But overall it was a good job of roster construction. They clearly prioritized depth and flexibility, and it is interesting that it was a cohesive team that seemed to like each other and the manager and didn't have any of those conflicts and blowups. YMMV on how much that matters, but it does seem to impact a team in baseball with the really long grind of the season. A couple of depth moves they made really worked out that seemed a bit questionable at the time: Solano & Castro. It wasn't clear they needed Solano and it did keep Julien from being on the roster from the jump, but Solano had a solid season and his presence meant that when the injuries were piling up (again) they had a quality veteran bat who could make consistent contact stepping in. Castro was a revelation; his positional flexibility was outstanding and while he's not a plus hitter, he's good enough (ended the season slightly above average) and his baserunning is a real plus. He also turned out to be average to above average defensively at pretty much every position he played. They're also pretty well positioned for 2024, which is a plus mark for this season's roster construction as well: even with the potential losses of several players through free agency, we're not looking at gaping holes anywhere, and sustainable success was also a stated goal of this front office.

Tough break for Kirilloff. Every time it looks like he's taking a step forward something else gets him. I was so happy that it looked like they had finally solved his wrist issue, so it's a bummer to have a shoulder problem take him down again. I still believe in his bat and was really hoping to see him as the starting 1B from Day 1 next year. The good thing for the Twins is they should have options. Seems increasingly likely that Polanco is back next year and Julien gets the shift over to 1B (give Julien a whole offseason to prepare for 1B duty and I expect he'll do fine). Miranda could be an option if he's healthy and his RH bat could protect Julien from too many tough matchups against LHP. Depth was hugely important to the 2023 Twins and I think they will be looking to match that again next season. It will be interesting to see how much of that comes from within or if they look for reinforcements in free agency. (I have zero fear that Gallo will be back.)

Kirk Gibson would like a word. :P An argument can be made the MAT and Byron Buxton are pretty much equal, but I don't think it's a very good one, and certainly not a good enough one to unequivocally call the move "stupidity". the only way to make them equal as hitters is to ignore everything except this season. Where during the grind of a long season and battling injuries, Byron Buxton had one of his worst seasons as a pro...but notably was excellent out the gate before trying to grind through it eventually made him unplayable for full games. This season was Michael A. Taylor's 2nd best in his whole career as a hitter, and it ended up being roughly comparable to one of Buxton's worst. Buxton has a career OPS+ of 106, MAT is at 83. Prior to this season Buxton had 4 straight seasons with an OPS+ of 115 or better. MAT has never had an OPS+ over 105. he's only been over 100 (league average) once. Maybe on Oct 11th MAT was a better hitter than Byron Buxton because he'd been facing live, opposing MLB pitching for the past several weeks, but during the playoffs he was 2-13 with 5 Ks and no BBs, no XBHs, and hit into a DP. He struggled at the plate. based on pure talent level and sheer ability to hit a baseball...not a bad case to give Buxton a shot, and it lit up the stadium. It didn't work out, but there's little evidence MAT would have done better.

I never need to hear AJ Pierzynski call him "Wain-o" in the booth ever again.

It was a fun team to watch this season. Never felt like they didn't have a chance going into any game the whole year, which is definitely a new feeling. If there's disappointment, it's because they increased expectations through their own performance. It's because after the Pablo Lopez Game you could see the path forward and how they could win the series...and then it went south. If you don't care, you can't be disappointed, and this team made people care. Lot of new and fun players on this team. lot of guys who absolutely will be back next year as key contributors: Lopez, Julien, Lewis, Wallner, Castro should all be around. Ober, Varland, Jax, and Jeffers all stepped up. there's a lot of upside for this team, and potential to improve. Sometimes you get a good team that's not very fun (the Jimmy Butler T-Wolves come to mind), but this was a group that was super easy to root for. Farmer, Polanco, Kepler with a resurgent season, bulldog Sonny Gray, and electric super lightning Duran! Lot of good dudes that really seemed to enjoy playing together. Fun to imagine what happens if better health reigns for Correa and Buxton (and Miranda, and Kirilloff, and Alcala...)

I am definitely on board with Pablo Lopez leading this rotation. He had an excellent year, healthy and consistent. He's got the arsenal to shut down any lineup, and showed he can be a big-game pitcher. He's shown he has the drive to improve and he's super-smart about his craft. And from everything we've heard, he sounds like a fantastic teammate too. Taking a shot at Baldelli related to Pablo Lopez is pretty wild: he just had his best season as a pro under Rocco. They worked with him on several things and made changes with him on his pitches and he finished the season strong and healthy (not hearing anyone knock him for a weak shoulder now are you?). He didn't have the same success with the breaking ball before he came here. So why exactly should anyone be worrying about the manager screwing him up? He didn't come here and do the same thing or worse: he actually got better.

So any player with a platoon split shouldn't be on this team? That's basically what you're saying here. I'm baffled about the outrage for the supposed "insult" pinch hitting Byron Buxton for MAT somehow is. Buxton is a better hitter. MAT was a fine player for us this season and stepped up when we needed him to, but he's not a great hitter: he's only been above league average one season in his career, and that was 6 years ago. Even hurt, Buxton has produced more value at the plate this season. he's an elite talent than can change a game. MAT was 2-13 with 5 Ks and no xbhs in the playoffs, it's not like we pinch-hit for a guy who was crushing it. And did you hear the crowd when Buxton came to the plate? It didn't work out, but it definitely put a charge into the whole place.

Cubs fans might disagree with you. Dusty does great when he has great players, like most managers. (check out the Houston side of the world some time, they're pretty convinced that Dusty insisting on playing Maldonaldo every game in the playoffs is going to kill them) Dusty Baker didn't hit any of the HRs that sank the Twins, and I really can't think of a significant managerial move that he made in this series, and certainly not one that was decisive.

well, there's always next year! A disappointing result, mostly because you could see the path to victory after game 2. So it's a bummer to have it go the other way, especially having the offense going silent. But I still like this team a lot and they were very fun to watch this year. Paddack did great coming in, and it certainly makes me feel a little more confident about him in the rotation for next season. You can certainly see the talent, and after years of needing to bring in 2-4 starters in the offseason just to fill up the rotation it's nice to be in a position where we could sign no one and still have a viable rotation with top-end talent on Opening Day. Julien really proved himself. No question that he's a big-league hitter, and if he gets a little more respect for his strike zone judgment next season he could actually be even better. It's also impressive that he shows good power going the opposite way. He's exciting. Royce proved himself as a player as well...he just needs to figure out how to stay on the field consistently. The talent is awesome, but one of the best abilities is availability. This team steps up another level if Lewis and Buxton are healthy and playing 130-140 games in a season. I can't say I mind going with a bullpen game last night considering the stakes and the situation. You've got all these pitchers, might as well use them. They pitched well enough to win. Kepler taking that last pitch...tough one. On the one hand it sure looked like a ball, and we certainly weren't happy about the Twins expanding the zone and getting themselves out the previous night. On the other, it really stinks to strike out looking like that. (I will admit to being surprised that the broadcast showed the earlier "strike three" that was clearly off the plate and having the booth comment on it; did they do the same on the last pitch....or did MLB orders come down for them to shut up about it?)

well, it hasn't been ok for some time; he's been battling an injury for a while. Maybe the cold weather is making it harder to get it loose. I'm sure he could step out on the field and play, but he's also got an injury. Not sure how much difference it will make, other than giving people a new reason to pile on Buxton, really.

It was a disappointing loss to be sure. Pitching wasn't there, defense wasn't there, and offense wasn't there. It's tough when nothing's really working, and the Astros had it going. Alvarez is absolutely a machine. Fortunately, the Twins still have another bite at it. It would be great to send this back to Houston. Twins did a good job working walks, but they need to pair it up with some hits. Hopefully some guys will be able to re-set themselves, not expand the zone and find contact again. This team still has a lot of power up and down the lineup and that can turn things around in a hurry. Glad to hear the fans in the stands didn't quit on the team yesterday and kept trying to cheer them on, even during a rough game. Hope everyone comes out again tonight ready to yell!

did not like the crew one bit on sunday night. wainwright added very little to the broadcast, and while I appreciated him being so into Lopez's statement after coming out of the game, I would have liked more from him in breaking down how he was attacking the Houston lineup. Lot of fluff, little substance from him. AJ talked a lot, but wasn't particularly insightful, and he and Amin were both just repeating too many obvious things on the field for my liking. (I get they were both trying to pull Wainwright in, but unless someone can tie it to the action or the players on the field, doing a "well, in your day..." bit isn't very interesting most of the time) If my friend's teenager can spot that Correa was asking the ump about the catcher blocking the sliding lane when he was thrown out in the 7th, I expect the booth to not be confused about it. unimpressive and superficial presentation from the booth, IMHO. Verducci's dugout interviews were ok. Still better than the useless babble from the studio, I guess, but they can do better than this for a playoff game.

I think it's more likely that with 2 outs Rocco wasn't looking to weaken his defense yet to try and exploit the platoon advantage and didn't want to limit his options too much for later in the game. When Julien pinch hit for him in the 7th (which worked out nicely) it was also a reasonable time to slide Castro down to 3B and bring in Stevenson to handle left with the good lead intact. The Twins definitely are looking to exploit the platoon advantage but I think their substitution patterns are more sophisticated than just swapping guys out for that aspect. I do think they're trying to be situational to get that crooked number on the board, pressure the other team's bullpen alignment, and handle things in ways to keep their defense intact while riding a lead.