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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    Great job by Pablo. Fun to see that bullpen chart with so many guys registering a zero pitch count for a few games; can't be sad about a well-rested bullpen going into the AZ series. Pablo's stuff had been still good even in this tough stretch, so it's good to see him putting it back together and having a dominating start. No loss of concentration, no hard luck inning, just dominating. Oakland is a poor offensive team, but shutting them down so completely 2 games in a row is still excellent work, and Oakland actually had a decent crowd for Pablo Day. Glad to see Buxton rip a dinger. He's not up to his ability on offense yet this season (though he's not actually been bad; we and he all just expect more and he's capable of more) but it is nice to have him playing so much because the defense is still excellent. If he can tick the offense up a bit he's going to have a nice solid season and maybe a dinger like this that is impactful on the game will help get him going. A hot Buck sure would be fun this summer...
  2. jmlease1
    Complicated on Sabato. While the overall numbers at the AFL were ok, there were some of the same concerns with him inside them: low contact rates, really high Ks, low BA. He certainly doing better this season in AA, but I would hope that a 25-year old in AA repeating a level would show improvement or he'd be looking at the end of his career. It's good to see the improve contact rates and lower Ks, but he's also had to lose a little of patience and isn't piling up the walks quite as well. He's going to be a hard call for the 40-man next season; Twins are facing a bit of a crunch there. Sabato doesn't add anything on the defensive end (mediocre 1B); he absolutely has to hit to have value. Texas league is also a hitters environment...is he hitting enough? It'd be nice to get some value out of Sabato, who was bordering on bust territory. He's had a good stretch, but I'm not sold yet.
  3. jmlease1
    Nice to see Severino on such a heater. It seems unlikely that Santana will be back next year, so there should be an opportunity at 1B for him, and the fact that he's a switch-hitter would be another nice add even as a bench bat. Having a couple of effective switch-hitters in your lineup can really help keep things balanced and make it harder to attack by the other team's bullpen, so hopefully Severino has figured something out and can keep rolling. Considering how the LH OF have let the side down a bit this season, have to wonder if Kiersey might get his shot? Not being on the 40-man might be the biggest barrier at this point, but you have to wonder if he keeps hitting and stays healthy what he'll have to do.
  4. jmlease1
    Come on. You can't just count the cost of Gray's salary this season in a vacuum: you have to look at the total length and value of that contract, Yes, paying Sonny Gray $10M in 2024 is awesome, and a real steal. Paying Gray $35M in 2026? Better hope he's still healthy at 36. Plus the fact that he wanted to play closer to home, etc.
  5. jmlease1
    Jeffers is mired in a dreadful slump right now, with a .345 OPS in June. Vazquez has actually put up a .790 OPS in the same period. More importantly, Jeffers has played 63 out of 76 games this season, and has stayed healthy. Maybe not so asinine. Margot has turned it around and is putting up a .758 OPS in June as well. The idea that these are easy and simple decisions is what's laughable. If they cut Farmer and Lee dings his back again and is out for a month, how's that going to work? I'm pretty sure you'll be back railing on the front office for being stupid, stubborn, and clueless if they drop Margot and Wallner goes 3-24 with 14K's too. Offense really isn't the problem right now: we scored 5. Paddack is looking like he needs a break, a reset, or maybe the league has figured out this iteration and he needs to make some serious adjustments. Funderburk not putting out the fire and Duran blowing one cost us the game, not Vazquez, Margot, or Farmer. The pitching has to step up: we've given up 6 or more runs in 7 games in June, 5 or more in 12. That's not going to get it done. Offense has scored 5 or more in 8 of the last 9.
  6. jmlease1
    The hitting potential of a Twins infield in 2025 with Lewis, Correa, Lee, and Miranda/Julien is tantalizing indeed. The power production is a good indicator that the back isn't giving him any trouble, I think. He hasn't played a ton yet, but all systems look go. If he hadn't gotten hurt early i think we would have already seen him at target Field. let him keep pushing. Good to see him get some time at 2B; that seems to be where he's going to get the first opportunity.
  7. jmlease1
    I think they're going to have to monitor this over the next 6 weeks to be sure. Okert is death to lefties, but is getting crushed by righties, which makes it harder to go to him late in games where he could immediately face at least one pinch hitter and might not get more than 1 lefty out of his minimum 3. Part of Thielbar's strength over the years was he could handle righties as well without getting nuked. I expect he'll get some additional opportunities to see if he can get it back, and he's got the track record that he deserves more rope. Giving Funderburk the opportunity makes the most sense right now. His control is still concerning, but he been good at not giving up hard contact and should have the ability to work around a walk or two.
  8. jmlease1
    The Twins competitiveness has a challenging impact on the bullpen: we're rarely blowing people out or getting blown out, which means that our top bullpen arms are often getting used and can leave us in a position where the lower guys on the list get asked to fill a role they're not really intended to handle. The top of the 'pen is pretty strong with Duran, Jax, and Alcala and when Stewart gets back they're in great shape from the right side late in games. The left side is a little more challenging with Thielbar in a funk and Okert struggling to get RH out, because we're no longer in a world where you can carry a LOOGY. Okert is death to lefties, but as soon as he comes in you have to expect the PH. Hopefully Funderburk can help. Tough beat making the big comeback and then falling short. Great to see Miranda playing so well, and Santana's revival has been impressive. Was surprised to see Jackson get recalled in the first place, glad to see him demoted again. Hopefully this experiment is over: Jackson can't get LH out at all has been just another guy against RH and he's not designed to be a mop-up guy either. He's got no future here and going to that well again and again seems like a waste. Let him fling sliders at AAA hitters. Disappointed to see Royce get thrown out at 3rd; yes, you want to advance a base but you simply can't get thrown out there. Have to wonder if that's a situation where he hasn't really internalized that's he's not as fast as he used to be.
  9. jmlease1
    Considering his injury history, it's probably not a bad idea to give him a little rest here and there. It's pretty incredible what he's done when he's been on the field. He's got the tools and the mindset for success and I love watching him play.
  10. jmlease1
    prime Ichiro also was good for 6-8 triples a season and put up SLG of .425 or better (which is also the mark where you see Arraez getting that OPS+ over 120 and being a more impactful player). But 100% correct: Ichiro wasn't just a singles hitter who did nothing else.
  11. jmlease1
    Thielbar has enough track record that he's going to get more rope unless they're seeing clear signs in his stuff that he's truly degraded. Complicated for relievers because of the small sample sizes. Jackson, on the other hand, should be gone as soon as Stewart is back if not before. He was a reasonable risk, but he seems likely to get through waivers again and even if he doesn't it's not great loss. Alcala, Jax, and Duran are already pretty murderous to face late in games (and did a great job shutting down TB last night) so adding Stewart back to that mix is going to be fun.
  12. jmlease1
    WAR is a useful metric. It does a reasonable job of looking at the totality of a player (hitting, baserunning, defense, the position they play, etc) and putting it into a stat that is fairly easy for people to understand so you can compare the value of wildly different players and do it across eras, which is hard. It's not the end-all be-all but one thing it does is ignore the "halo effect" of narratives around a player who is amazing at one cool thing. Arraez is one of the absolute best bat to ball players in MLB today and he consistently hits for high average. But WAR doesn't give you extra credit for being the best at one thing, and will still deficit you for being bad at others (like not hitting for power, playing poor defense, etc). I love Arraez, and he's a useful player with an increasingly unique skill set that's probably more valuable in the playoffs than in the regular season. But he needs to really hit a ton of those singles, especially when he's not taking walks and poking out the occasional homer. WAR does a good job of showing fairly who Correa is, I think. An elite hitter with good but no longer great defense at a premium position. He's not just playing like an all-star, he's playing more like an MVP. And that's what healthy Carlos Correa does. Hopefully LEN3 is a little embarrassed by his recent bad C4 take.
  13. jmlease1
    Getting on base is literally the first component of OPS. And which is more important, moving a runner up, or scoring the runner? The "clutch" ideas aren't really borne out except in people's generally faulty memories. We remember big, important moments when a player got the job done at times and forget about the others. But time after time it's been shown that it's really more just a matter of a player being very good and getting opportunities rather than them actually performing better in the clutch. Having a lineup full of Arraez-type players might be more ascetically pleasing, but it won't be more successful or score runs over a season than one filled with ones with a higher overall OPS but lower batting averages. The most important skill for a hitter is avoiding outs. There's an advantage in doing it with hits over walks in that you can get extra bases, but that's also mitigated partially by the fact that you also get double-plays. But hitting for power also matters. It's far more efficient to move a runner over with a double than a groundout. It's easier to score 2 runs with a walk and a homer than by stringing together 3-4 singles before making 3 outs. It just is. If you have a lineup made up of Carlos Santana types who have OPSs that are 10-20 pts up on your theoretical Aaraez lineup, you will score a lot more runs. Correa being called overrated is a legacy of the Houston scandal I'm sure, but it's certainly silly. He proved he didn't need the "help" to be incredibly successful after the system was found out and dismantled, and proved it when he joined the Twins and was excellent for us in his first season. He's crushing it this year. And it's hardly his fault that MLB changed the rules so he can't play farther back to compensate for his poor foot speed and capitalize on his great arm. But even with that, he's a quality SS with an elite bat.
  14. jmlease1
    Correa is rolling right now. Love to see it. Glad to see the Twins aren't wasting it. I don't think Lopez is that far off, even if he had another disappointing start. The stuff is still there, but he's just hanging a few right now and getting punished for it. Think he'll be ok, but it;s a bit concerning. Those big bombs are really hurting right now. Impressed with the offense in how they clawed their way back into this. Did not love the clown at home plate and his ridiculous strike zone early in the game, though.
  15. jmlease1
    one of his 2 all-star years was the same year he won his Gold Glove (2021). So I don't understand your metrics here. You said "exceptional/very good". Correa was great as a rookie, playing excellent defense and hitting like crazy in only 99 games. (4.8 bWAR) and it's not like he was hurt, he played 53 games in the minors that season, destroying AA and AAA on his way up. That's 1. he followed it up with a very similar season in 2016, only this time he played 153 games, so more bWAR (7.0). That's 2. Deserving all-star in 2018. That's 3. he was awesome in 2019, but missed all of June and most of July with injury, so I skipped it. and the pandemic season was weird and he didn't hit, so I skipped it too. he was a deserving all-star in 2021. that's 4. he was great in 2022 for the Twins, even if his defense might have been a tick down. That's 5. If you want to argue he wasn't "exceptional" in all 5...ok. but to not qualify him as at least very good seems seriously unfair. It's like saying that if you're not one of the top 5 SS in all of baseball in each season it doesn't count.
  16. jmlease1
    I take midseason updates with a HUGE grain of salt, I will admit. jumping a player that they clearly had well outside their top 100 into the top 75 based on half a season? I mean, great for us if it's true but that's still hasty IMHO. And if keaschall really is getting on to prospect lists like that then this proposed trade just gets dumber and dumber.
  17. jmlease1
    he's had 5 all-star level seasons ('15-'17, '21-'22) in 9 seasons and is on pace for a 6th this year. I'd say that's more than 3 exceptional/very good seasons.
  18. jmlease1
    well, let's calm down a little on Keaschall: he's having a fine season and looks like a legit prospect, but he's not a global top 100 prospect. but under no circumstances are the Twins trading Festa in a package for a rental bat. This is a deal that looks awesome for the Mets and crap for the Twins, which is a classic Jim Bowden special. Dumbass ideas like this is why he's not in anyone's front office now and likely never will work in baseball again.
  19. jmlease1
    The Correa deal is working out fine so far. 2023 was a struggle for him because of injury, but he impressively played through it and was awesome in the playoffs, which is something this franchise really needed. This season, he looks like healthy Carlos and he's playing great. Things could always go sideways, but this was definitely a risk worth taking. Locking down SS with a player who can perform on offense and defense is something we've been missing for a long, long time. Having a elite player who we can plug in at SS every day year after year is really something most (all?) Twins fans have never really had. I'm thrilled to not be looking for the next SS. I love having a no-fear player like Correa who is so smart and engaged in all aspects of the game. He's a superior hitter, a sure-handed defender, and that arm is fantastic. He's worth it. And I think he'll earn every penny of that contract and more. I love watching him play. And that's not a small part of it: he's a player you want to see out there. It's great having that part of it too.
  20. jmlease1
    Sonny Gray is also making $60M guaranteed over the next 2 years and has an option for 2027 that will cost $5M to decline, so while they might have been able to structure a deal that would have kept the 2024 number around $10M, let's not pretend for a minute that Sonny Gray only costs $10M.
  21. jmlease1
    He looks like one of those guys that doesn't have enough control when he gets into 3-ball counts can't be sure of finding the zone unless he takes a little off, so he's either giving up hits when he dials it back or giving up walks when he stays full force. But I could be wrong. He's not giving up tons of xbh so we'll see. This was definitely his best start to the year though
  22. jmlease1
    Seems doubtful. I loved Polanco, who I think deserves consideration for the Twins Hall of Fame for his many seasons of excellent service. But he's been terrible for Seattle this season while carrying a $10M salary. Unless he turns it around drastically in the second half, they're probably going to decline his option for 2025. (he looked totally lost at the plate when he came home to play us, going 2-18 with no walks and 7 K's too and it's not like he's hit poorly at Target Field) The market was lower for Polanco than most of us here expected; the rest of the league saw a declining player who was likely to have injury problems...so far they've been right. We certainly didn't miss Urshela once Royce Lewis arrived; they played about the same about last season and Royce crushed him in every metric. And Miranda has shown why the Twins had confidence in him and were ready to move off Urshela in the first place now that he's healthy again. Urshela attracted little attention in free agency, is increasingly sliding down the defensive scale, and doesn't hit enough for the positions he's playing. he only looks ok in Detroit because of the poor alternatives and is cheap. i think both of these decisions are looking like the right ones and certainly haven't been hard to overcome.
  23. jmlease1
    Cave was a perfectly serviceable 4th OF his first 2 seasons in MN. Then he fell apart. But just because he finished poorly doesn't mean he wasn't a useful reserve when we acquired him, which was the role he was supposed to play. Gil is rolling this season, but he was a teenager with injury history (missed all of 2016) that hadn't thrown a pitch outside of rookie ball, and the injury history continued, since he needed Tommy John. Sometimes these guys eventually work out, but a lot of the time they don't. The Yankees took a flier on his talent, but it's taken 6 seasons for it to be realized. This isn't the Twins not realizing what they had and throwing away a sure thing, this is a lottery ticket coming home. That said, I hate the Yankees. I hate playing the Yankees, I hate losing to the Yankees, I hate feeling like we're never going to get a fair shake against the Yankees, I hate their stupid ballpark where the best seats are never filled for the opening pitch and seem to be half-empty most of the game, along with it's ridiculous short porch in RF. I hate the fact that they can buy themselves out of any mistake they make. I hate the Yankees. but I love Royce Lewis.
  24. jmlease1
    I'd be willing to move Raya and another prospect in the 12-20 range for Luzardo. He's having a solid season, he's controllable for 2 seasons and the window is open right now for this team. Plus, I'm not sold on Raya being able to stay healthy/pitch enough to start in MLB, so let someone else roll the dice.
  25. jmlease1
    The bullpen has been so good overall that our expectations for them have risen significantly. People get mad if anything untoward happens in the late game and our middle relief is expected to be as good as a closer. I felt good about this group coming into the season; wasn't sure about Jackson, especially because it seemed like we had few guys with options to move around, and he hasn't worked out. I thought Funderburk would do better, but he really hasn't been pitching all that long, so some patience is warranted. I think he'll be back up (unless everyone stays healthy?).But I also thought Topa was going to be a key contributor, and he's been barely missed and we've managed through missed time from Duran and Stewart pretty nicely. If Stewart can get back soonish, the right side of the bullpen looks just destructive: Duran, Jax, Stewart, and Alcala are all playoff worthy. Okert and Thielbar have been great against LH, but are getting bombed by righties; if they can get tick up closer to average against RHers then it's going to be tough for teams to get anything going against this bullpen. Really the only thing missing from this bullpen is a guy who can go 2 innings every 3-4 days if needed and bridge the middle innings on a day where a starter only goes 4-5 innings. And frankly, those aren't easy to find. It's an odd role and a lot of times the ones who show out at it end up getting higher leverage roles as 1 inning set-up men or closers. (and they're not as useful in the playoffs either) they're looking pretty good right now considering no Topa or Stewart. I didn't love how they handled Alcala earlier in the season, but they seem to have him in a 1 inning role that he's more suited towards now.
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