jmlease1

Polanco is a better hitter than Julien vs LHP. This is not news. There's also a lot more RHP in MLB, so being able to hit LHP is good, it's not as impactful as being able to hit RHP. Despite doing poorly against LHP last season, Julien was substantially better on offense than Polanco last season. This is simply a fact. Julien is 5 years younger than Polanco with no real injury history as a pro; Polanco has had substantial injury issues the last 2 seasons (and in 2018 as well). This is also a fact. The idea that Julien is half the offensive player that Polanco is just because Polanco is better vs LHP doesn't pass the smell test. (BTW, Julien is a much better baserunner than Polanco)

well, he was close to a league average hitter, but overall he was a quality starter with 2.7 bWAR. And if he moves to mostly just playing against LHP, he might actually be more productive as a hitter.

I prefer Santana to Solano; Solano is not a good 1B and Santana is, Solano doesn't really possess splits and we're looking more for a platoon partner than an every day player, and Santana's strength at this point is hitting LHP. While Solano gives quality ABs, so does Santana, and Solano has zero pop in his bat despite his nickname while Santana still has that thump. I wasn't all that high on Santana as an option when I thought Miranda would be healthy coming in to the season; right now it's looking like he's still not pass the injury and the surgery, which makes me like this move more. The fit is very good for this team, so long as Santana can still hit LHP. He did it last season while still playing basically full time; it's reasonable to think that when you shift him to a smaller role that the extra rest might keep him in good enough nick to cancel any further degradation due to age. He's definitely a better defensive player at 1B than anyone on our roster right now (Kirilloff has potential still but hasn't put it all together yet) so that's a nice bonus. If Miranda were clearly recovered, I might have wanted us to spend the money elsewhere, but with his status looking shakier having a guy who can hit LHP and play quality 1B is a sound investment.

I mean, asking whether DeSclafani boosts the rotation for the playoffs is the wrong question from the jump, since that's not why he was signed. He's here to provide depth at the back of the rotation with the expectation that the team will need 7-9 pitchers taking starts across the season because of injuries, ineffectiveness, rest, etc. Now, we're going 6 deep (assuming Varland stays a starter, which I suspect he will) before asking Festa, SWR, etc to take the mound in MLB. this was a regular season move all the way, not a playoff one. Maybe the team will look to upgrade the rotation midseason, but this is also a season where Ryan, Ober, or Paddack show that they can be a real partner for Lopez in the playoffs. Certainly could happen; none of these guys are someone who would be embarrassing in the playoffs and all 3 would give you a chance to win. I'm still high on Ryan, and I suspect he's learned his lesson about hiding an injury. Ober was very good last season, and I'm not going to write him off as a playoff-caliber starter after 1 chance. If DeSclafani is healthy, he'll be useful and a good contributor. I think he can replace Maeda's innings in the regular season. That feels like what he's here for. Higher end work will need to come from improvement/consistency from Ober/Ryan and a return to form from Paddack.

Say Carlos Santana had been included in the trade (signed by Seattle before being included in the deal)...how does it look then? I loved Jorge Polanco, I think he was underrated while he was here and while he wasn't a consistent all-star level performer he was a very good player who did everything the team asked of him, was a leader in the clubhouse, and brought a lot of value with his bat playing up the middle. He's also getting older, and has struggled with injuries the last 2 seasons. The Twins gave up the best player in the trade, which is a little unfortunate when you're a contending team trying to improve to go for a title. But that's the way it goes when you're looking to deal 1 guy, and the Twins got good value back that will contribute this season and some prospects that could give more. I wasn't particularly enthusiastic about Santana, but having heard that Miranda might not be fully recovered from shoulder surgery, I'm happier with the decision, and I feel like his acquisition has to be considered as part of the overall trade evaluation. Topa doesn't really deserve the comp to Lopez; Topa's problem before last season was health, which seems to be no longer an issue. Lopez was based on hope that he'd ironed out his performance issues and could stay consistent, but his personal struggles clearly impacted his game; that was unfortunate, but also not really predictable. While Topa might regress this season, there's little reason to believe he'll implode like that. DeSclafani doesn't raise the ceiling on the rotation like we might have hoped, but should raise the floor; he's been good when healthy, and his been poor when he's not. Gonzalez is a prospect with real upside and flaws that need to be ironed out, and Bowen is a lottery ticket. The Twins have better aligned their roster with this trade, getting starting pitching depth, improving the bullpen, and getting a veteran platoon partner at 1B while adding prospects to the farm system. That's a respectable return for a player who has only played about a half a season in 3 of the last 6 seasons and only has 2 seasons left of team control on a contract that's closer to market rate. With Julien already showing out well at 2B, Brooks Lee waiting in the wings, Farmer a better fit in a utility role (cheaper, more positional flexibility, better defense), moving Polanco made sense, and this is a return that works out ok for now and potentially in the future. Was I hoping the Twins could package Polanco into a better starting pitcher? Sure was, but my hopes don't define the market and keeping Polanco would have been the wrong decision.

The only way to make room is if they're better than Nick Gordon. I don't see the Twins dropping Farmer, so the last man on the 26-man for position players is Gordon. I'm ok with that but I don't see the Twins getting rid of Gordon for nothing unless they get a heck of a deal on the RH OF...

It's my biggest concern with Santana, but it's mitigated a little by the belief that he's not intended to be an every day player. If he's going to be playing 1B against LH starters, doing a little pinch-hitting against lefties, and getting the occasional DH/1B start against RHP because of injuries or need to give a guy a day off...that role is more limited and less likely to collapse like Gallo did. I'm also hoping that if Santana is cooked the fact that his salary is half what Gallo was pulling down will keep them from trying to recoup the costs past the point of redemption. But most teams are prisoners of the Sunk Cost Fallacy, so Twins aren't unique here. If he can hammer LHP and keep playing quality D at 1B, this should work out nicely. even with his decline the last few seasons, he's still been good enough to fill that role.

It's also important to remember that the 26-man roster is the biggest sticking point for signings now, not the 40-man. We are going to be running 13 position players (I don't really agree with that; I think there's more value to another position player than a pitcher who might only throw 1 inning in a week, but they're not changing that philosophy) so in order to add another guy we're going to have to drop someone. After adding Santana, the bottom two guys are Gordon and Farmer. Farmer isn't going to get cut; he's got real value as a RH bat off the bench who can slot into many positions and be effective defensively. Gordon doesn't have options left, so adding someone to his spot means we have to either quickly deal him or lose him for nothing. Miranda has the last spot, but he has options still and is coming off a significant injury, so moving Santana into his slot on the 26-man makes a fair amount of sense. I like this fit better than the Gallo move last season, and it's half the price. I like the options we have for dealing with injuries in house right now; there are quite a few young players who look to be ready or close to it who can step in all over the field, which I like. I just hope Carlos still has one good season of lefty mashing left in him. If he can turn in an OPS over .800 against lefties tis season and play good defense at 1B (and maybe teach Kirilloff some tricks there?) then the signing turns out well. If he's cooked, can't turn in an OPS much over .700 (or worse) against LHP, gets nicked up a bunch and can't play, and turns into a statue at 1B...at least it's only a 1 year deal and there are options in the minors.

I don't mind the Twins digging through the waiver wire, looking for potential upside options for the bullpen that they can hopefully either DFA and get through or assign to AAA at the start of the season. It's not a bad way to sift through and find a couple of additional options as you churn through some guys at the back end to figure out who can be effective for the season. TB does this all the time and it's worked for them, and the Twins have had some success at it too. It's a marginal move to be sure, but they're trying to give themselves as many outs as possible while avoiding investing significant dollars in what often tend to be fungible relievers (and that's what a lot of those guys who get 1-2 year deals at $4-7M really are). Feels like Jensen can pass waivers at this point?

I look at this move and think, "It's...fine?" Santana hits lefties pretty well and plays a quality 1B, so as a platoon option he's not bad. He's not a black hole against RHP either, so he doesn't need to get subbed out for every pitching change. But he's turning 38 shortly and age is undefeated. My biggest concern is that this franchise won't be able to move on from him if he struggles out the gate or even if he falls off the cliff by June (the Gallo Effect); we've seen them get hung up on the Sunk Cost Fallacy before. While moving in the younger players last year was highly effective for this team, there is something to be said for a) having those players earn their opportunities rather than get them on scholarship, and b) not relying on them to be your first-order depth. The team's depth last season was a real strength for the club, and 2 years ago their lack of depth and quality options to replace players struck down with injury ruined the season (which started out quite promisingly). I think the decision-making of the FO has shown a desire not to get caught out like they were in 2022 and make sure they have veteran depth available. Solano is younger and might have been even cheaper, but I'm unconvinced that he's going to be better. Santana is clearly the better defensive player at 1B, and Solano's positional flexibility is more on paper than in reality now (and not as much of a need for the Twins since we still have Farmer and Castro to cover infield spots). Would I have been willing to roll with Miranda as the primary backup/partner for Kirilloff? I would have been ok with that if the $$ had been rolled into pitching help. But at this point I'm not interested in overpaying to add another reliever, and if the team wasn't going to be able to add another starter...this seems fine? I hope Santana is ok with not being an everyday player now, because he really shouldn't be. He shouldn't take ABs away from guys like Kirilloff or Julien against RHP. And maybe consistent rest will keep him healthy and performing well. It's a 1 year deal for a guy who has a potential fit in a specific role and has a reputation for being good in the clubhouse, so it almost can't be that bad of a move. Could they have done better if they'd moved early? maybe, but we are where we are.

I would not have ranked Soto this high. Yes, he's got huge upside and a ton of talent, but if if the gods have come off the mountain and blessed him by turning his arm into a thunderbolt...he's literally never thrown a professional pitch. So until he passes the lemon test, he shouldn't be in the top ten. There's a lot of things to like about him: the fastball looks great already and he's already made more progress on refining two off-speed pitches than some pitchers have done at 22, but he still hasn't shown he can get professional hitters out at all. He's a fine risk to take with the 34th pick, but he's also a huge risk because there are so many hurdles for high school pitchers to leap over. I like him. I'm fine with the Twins picking him. I love his potential and upside, but he's not the #8 prospect in the Twins organization for me. I don't believe in valuing projection (aka, hope) above all, and the fact that he didn't even throw an inning is mildly worrisome. I expect he'll pitch extended spring training and then rookie ball and then maybe we can do an actual evaluation, but right now this is smoke and mirrors to get him this high, and there might be something else in that smoke.

Charter = Spectrum. (trust me, I used to have them). I'm currently getting my tv through TDS, and have Bally, formerly FSN. Live sports is really the only reason I still have a tv service like this, but dumping Charter/Spectrum for TDS is saving me a lot of $$ So it is available on the #1 and #2 providers, since Xfinity = Comcast. I'm not thrilled about the streaming not being fixed better, but if it's going to available to stream on Prime rather than through the Bally's app that a) sucked, and b) cost an extra bomb even if you were already paying for their cable tier...maybe not so bad.

He did great in rookie ball, and frankly it would be really promising if he moves up to low-A at the start of this season. (Kepler for example didn't reach Low-A until his age-20 season) and it'll be interesting to see how he does in the FSL. the athleticism is impressive, so if he can translate those tools into effective baseball skills he'll rise quickly. It'll be interesting to see what position they start to lock him into?

Never trust players comments about their health, how they're feeling, etc prior to spring training. It's as meaningful as hearing that someone is coming in in the "best shape of the life". we'll see if he's healthy when he takes the mound against live competition and whether he can control his pitches. until then, he's just one of several guys competing for one of the last couple of spots in the bullpen. Right now he's competing with Alcala, Funderburk, Winder, Balazovic, Sands, etc for those last spots. I'd argue he's behind Alcala and Funderburk but possibly above Winder, Balazovic, and Sands.

It definitely seems to be where you see either a leap forward or washouts. the pitchers at AA either have superior stuff or refined approaches that don't rely on overwhelming a hitter with one pitch. The pitchers there are working on a 3rd pitch and already have a quality off-speed pitch they can work with. a lot more of them can hit their spots and you can't wait for someone to groove a 3-1 fastball in the heart of the plate. This should be a good test for Schobel.

I think this sums it up pretty well. He's an interesting player: when he shows some pop in his bat, you start to see him as a quality MLB player, either as a super-utility or maybe more. When he doesn't show that power, then the hit tool just isn't strong enough to carry him. He makes good contact, he takes some walks, he's a good base-runner ( 19-3 SB-CS ratio is outstanding) but he struggled at the plate in Wichita to get any power at all. I think it's a decent sign that he kept taking walks even when he was struggling, and he made a ton of contact in sept to finish a little stronger, but he's going to have to do better than the 9 xbh he got in AA last season. Important season for him. If he adjusts and starts looking like the guy from High A again this season, a couple months adjustment midseason is nothing. If he can't get the ball out of the infield this year, he's going to need a lot more hits and walks to have much of a future.

I wouldn't mind the Twins adding an OF, especially if they hit RH, mash LHP, and even better can play a little CF. But I'm looking at the roster right now and since we can only expect to have 13 position players we're basically at the point of any OF we add has to be better than Nick Gordon, and any INF we sign has to be better than Jose Miranda. (we could maybe sign an OF who is better than Miranda, and hope that between Jeffers/Farmer/Julien and maybe even Kepler/Wallner we can cover 1B behind Kirilloff?) because right now, those are the guys that look to have the last 2 spots on the 26 man roster. Miranda has options left; Gordon does not. Kirilloff, Jeffers, Julien, Correa, Lewis, Castro, Kepler, Buxton, and Wallner are locked in. If Vazquez goes, a catcher will replace his spot. Farmer could be still moved, but it's always seemed like the only reason the Twins were considering moving him was for payroll, so if that's not an issue it's hard to see him going when he's an ideal partner for Julien at 2B, can still play effective SS, hits LHP, and can even slide into the OF in a pinch. Solano over Miranda gives us more depth since Miranda can go to AAA, but does it make us better? Votto doesn't look like a fit at all. Taylor is excellent Buxton insurance defensively and hits lefties better than Gordon; I wouldn't hate a reunion, especially if the coaching staff isn't feeling great about Martin being ready. Underwhelmed about the reunions.

well, no 1-year deal is going to be that terrible, but I'm a little concerned that Santana is hitting the wall at this point. I'm also not sure how well he really fits as a platoon bat: he hits lefties well, but has never really been a destroyer of them, and his splits over the last 3 years aren't that encouraging...and neither are his career splits. (He's been better against lefties, but there's not a giant difference). But the other aspect his...how well would he accept the role as a platoon bat? he's been a starter full-time for 13 seasons, including last year. he'll be better defensively than Jose Miranda or Donovan Solano, but a healthy Miranda might be significantly better as a hitter. Solano won't give you any power at this point, and he won't give you a real boost against LHP, but he will give you professional ABs. I guess the other thing i worry about with this club is Sunk Cost Fallacy on these kind of veteran signings. Look at how long Gallo hung around on the roster before getting dropped. Now, injuries played a huge part of that, but if Santana is cooked and Miranda is destroying the ball in AAA, will they eat the remaining $4M or so of a Santana contract to bring up Miranda or will they keep hoping to get back some of the value and hope that Santana turns it around? That worked for Kepler, but bombed for Gallo. but Kepler is also 7 years younger than Santana (and had an option year left on the contract). Rolling with the kids worked better for the team last season. Think i would pass.

You have to wonder how much of a problem Peter's dementia has been for them as an organization, but also the fact that the Angelos family made their money off of Peter getting a massive windfall in tobacco litigation that wasn't repeatable. I suspect most of their money IS the Orioles, and they're one of the ownerships that doesn't have a gazillion dollars to invest in the team and/or infrastructure because growing the valuation of the team as an asset doesn't help them unless they sell. I mean, no sympathy for them: they're going to be all insanely wealthy after this sale. But it probably limited the team's ability to compete in the AL East. Camden is a great ballpark, and so glad more teams followed that example in design sensibility rather than the ChiSox.

This is going to be an interesting question for GG: how much has he physically matured or not? The prospect evaluators who are down on him seem to be grouping around two things: his EVs (suggesting that he's where he's going to be for strength and power) and his lack of patience (which could get victimized as he faces more advanced pitching). The ones who are higher on him don't see him as being done in terms of his physical maturation and some struggles upon advancing to a level that he's quite young for is normal. I wonder who will be right? I would be interested in how many of them have actually seen more than a little tape on him.

some teams probably didn't believe in his power explosion at ASU, and since he's not projected to stick at SS, maybe they just didn't believe enough in his bat to project him? Hard to say for sure, but the Twins took him high in the second, so it's not like he really tumbled way down. (at the time I think some people thought we were reaching a little?)

i think the assessment of Severino is a little harsh; he might not be the most disciplined hitter, but he still takes walks (averaging like 45 per year over the past 3 seasons) and with a batting average landing around .270-.275 over the same period he makes decent amounts of contact too. yes, power is the big skill here, but he makes enough contact to let it play (unlike Sabato, for example). we'll see how he does; I expect him to get a chance at some point this season when injuries strike, and maybe playing 1B will suit him. I love Rosario, though. looking forward to him at AA and I hope he keeps smashing the cover off the ball. Keaschall had as good a pro start as you could ask for, and it's great that he jumped up to high A already. he could push himself to AA by midseason if he keeps playing out like this. He looks like a pretty sophisticated hitter already and it should be fun to see him get a full year in pro ball.

Canterino has everything except health. I keep wondering if the "Johan Plan" could work for him, where he spends a season or two in the bullpen maybe throwing 2 inning stints and then transitions back to starting? He has the pitches to be a serious, front-line starter. He hasn't had the health to be anything other than a dream. Rooting for the kid, hope he can finally get to really play pro ball. This is a really interesting group. I'd be more excited about Olivar if people weren't already telling me "he ain't sticking at catcher, and probably will end up as a corner OF".

Topa is a really interesting acquisition. He hasn't been good until last season, but he added a new pitch which has been effective for him and threw more innings last season than his previous 3 combined. So do you weight the good year (where he threw a bunch) or the bad years (where he barely threw at all)? Some guys just develop late (we should have him locker next to Thielbar). I do like his different arm angle and the gazillion groundballs. I think there's value in having pitchers who don't have the same profiles, as awesome as it is to have guys throwing upper-90's, facing a guy with a sidearm angle you've only seen rarely can be very effective no matter how many simulated swings you take between innings against the machine. As a cheap, controllable replacement for Pagan, I kinda like it.

1. The ability to take on salary in a midseason trade does matter sometimes. It's not useless 2. And as has been noted, they're not paying Polanco's $10.5M, so they're netting about $5M when you throw in Topa's salary. 3. This is the part that's the most scary about DeSclafani, and it's why the deal feels underwhelming to many, when the stated goal was to acquire starting pitching. If this guy is a replacement-level pitcher then we moved one of our best trade chips and didn't get the return we need. Now, we didn't get nothing: DeSclafani might be a solid back of the rotation guy and though it seems insane at times...those guys get $8-10M on the open market easily. Topa does look like a good replacement for the innings that Pagan chewed up in the bullpen last season, which certainly has value to the team right now. And the prospects are good: Seattle's #3 prospect, which for them looks to rate somewhere in the 90-120 overall range, and an A-ball pitcher with upside. But we need to make another move to address the needs of today's team, which can contend. Maybe these prospects help get that done, or make it easier to move another guy in our system. Maybe the extra $5M lets us rebalance the roster (there's no question that we were long on infielders) and replace Polanco's production in a different spot. but we're not there yet. i think it's fair to be skeptical of the deal and the moves (or lack of moves) so far this offseason, but we're also not in fireable offense territory with this deal.