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jmlease1

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Everything posted by jmlease1

  1. jmlease1
    This is where you're just making stuff up because you've already decided Rocco = Bad. You have no idea what Rocco is asking for/demanding behind the scenes, and frankly the manager tossing a player under the bus to satisfy the fanbase is always a foolish move. It doesn't "inspire" anyone to do better, but it's much more likely to get people pointing fingers at each other. Rocco & the team have made changes to the bullpen (Duran & Jax both started the season in lower-leverage roles, Smith has changed from being a 1-2 batter guy to someone who gets run out for longer stints, Duffey's role has changed, etc). But more importantly, Rocco doesn't just make these changes on his own: Wes Johnson was involved in all of them, our bullpen coach who is now our pitching coach was involved in all of them. The "Blame Rocco" chants are tired. And expecting a manager not to support his player to the press in the useless post-game conference is fantasy land. Who rips his guys after a loss any longer? (Hint: it's no one.)
  2. jmlease1
    They're clearly comfortable sending Duran out for 2 innings (which is great and makes him even more of a weapon), but he's not going to be available on consecutive nights if he does. (before someone starts screaming about Rocco and analytics and Moneyball and the alignment of Saturn, just pause for a minute and realize there's literally no team in MLB that would pitch their best reliever 2 innings and then run him out again the next night in June) I think they're comfortable with Jax the same way, but I'm less certain of it. But the reality is you get 2 innings from either of them at most before they get a night off. I'm thrilled with the way Jax has developed as a reliever, and it's another bit of evidence for while you should almost always give a starter who isn't working out in that role a chance to relieve: jax has increased his K/9, reduced his BB/9 and H/9, he's keeping the ball in the park better and looks every bit the part of a late inning reliever who can handle any leverage situation. Thielbar seems to be rounding into form; he was probably a little unlucky early (as Perk mentioned on the broadcast). But we need at least one more guy right now, and figure out one more by the end of the season. Alcala would have been in there for sure and that injury really hurts (especially on top of the other ones). Joe Smith is also a guy who would have been looked at to pitch the 10th, runners on base don't bother him. Pagan & Moran have the stuff to get outs and their ability to hunt Ks makes them suitable for the role, but the wildness gets scary and inability to throw a strike with their best stuff puts them at risk to give up xbhs a little too often.
  3. jmlease1
    Cole Sands with his 8.82 ERA and revolutionary WHIP? Look, the FO has to do something to address the bullpen, or the Twins risk throwing away a season where they brought in Correa and have the horses to compete. Injuries and ineffectiveness have decimated the bullpen and they need to go get some reinforcements, because there really aren't any serious options in AAA right now. (We have 6 relievers in the IL right now. Ugh.) The timing is tough, because you're probably going to have to overpay to pry someone quality loose...but the Twins have enough prospect capital to make it happen without mortgaging the future. Bored with any comment that talks about Rocco and "spreadsheets" or that he manages like a computer etc. You sound like Joe Morgan yelling about how Billy Beane writing Moneyball ruined the game. We just don't have enough options in the bullpen we can trust right now. The options last night for the 10th were Pagan (who blew it, again), Cotton (who blew it), Duffey (who seems to have traumatized a lot of this board), or Thornburg (who hasn't had chances to blow it yet). I don't love any of those options right now. Cotton & Pagan both have the same problem: they're too wild, and when they can't hit their spots and start walking guys they'll end up throwing a "get over" pitch to get a strike and get lit up. Both have the stuff to be quality, but aren't getting it done. (Moran has similar risks, but also has options so they can bounce him up and down as he tries to get it under control) Thornburg doesn't hunt Ks, making him a less optimal choice to come in with a runner(s) on base. I'm less afraid of Duffey than most, and probably would have gone with him over Pagan (who seems to be a mess right now) but him vs Cotton might have been a coin flip. But not having better options is more and more of a problem. I'm generally good with the strategy of churning relievers until find a combination that works for you, but the injuries are making that strategy less viable. Time to pivot, time to get someone real in rather than digging off the scrap heap.
  4. jmlease1
    I don't particularly hate Nishioka, but he was a dreadful Twin, utterly hopeless at the plate and poor in the infield. I don't see much of a comp there, personally, and even if you only meant to show a casual comparison to an aspect of their swing mechanics, putting those two players in the same sentence carries a significant degree of baggage that I find unfair to Kirilloff. He wasn't just hitting mistakes when he hit .348 in A-ball, and he wasn't just hitting mistakes this season when he hit .359 in AAA (and BTW, his walk rate was just ducky in Saint Paul this year. He's hit the ball well in MLB before having to deal with his wrist injuries (which ruined the start of this season). Kirilloff isn't immune to criticism, but using Nishioka as a comp of any kind maybe says a lot more than you thought, but there's literally nothing good to say about Nishioka as an MLB player. Unfortunately.
  5. jmlease1
    That was a really rough sequence. I'm not sure I'd say jeffers was showboating exactly, but it was a mistake to watch the ball for a bit before trying to get on his horse and he paid for it. Miranda's brain lock was pretty tough as well. We're not a strong baserunning team overall (despite Buxton and his insane speed) we have some guys that consistently make good choices on the basepaths (Kepler, Arraez, & Correa generally seem to do well in their decision-making) but definitely some poor ones. And Tommy Watkins has had several memorable "wtf, dude!" moments too. Hopefully they can clean it up. The pitching was good, Winder looked pretty good out there. Duffey did well enough I thought he was going to get another inning. Moran is a pitcher I really like, but he's always going to be a little wild, so come prepared with a mantra to meditate on or else he will seriously disturb your calm at times. Other times he's going to look unhittable. Possibly in the same AB. The evening game reveals the fallacy of the closer in baseball, though: Pagan got the 8th in the early game so Duran could pitch the 9th...and then there wasn't a 9th. In the evening game, we're up 6-0 in the 9th, so no need to "waste" your closer. So now your best, most dangerous reliever hasn't pitched in a few days...and you could have used him. (This is a slight knock on Rocco, but it's also common among most teams and managers where they land in this trap) I like the offense heating up, just wish they'd distribute the runs a little more evenly, because when we score at least 4 runs we're a damn good team.
  6. jmlease1
    I think there was a missed opportunity in not bringing in Duran to pitch the 8th with the top of the lineup coming around, but I also understand the thinking of "we might need this guy to pitch the 9th and face the 3-5 spots in the order" as well. It's a tough call, and the reality is we don't have enough reliable high-leverage arms in the bullpen right now. (YMMV on whether we will have it sorted by Sept) Not having Alcala definitely hurts us here. I would say the FO is going to have to look for reinforcements in the bullpen because I don't think we're going to be able to count on Alcala this season (yes, he might be back in 2 weeks...but he also might have another set back and not be back at all). That said, I do think it's not as easy as some people think to just go out and get a guy right now. There are only a few teams that are truly out of it, but the bigger issue is the teams that are sellers don't want to sell just yet: they want competition to drive up the price of whatever salary/player they're dumping and the buyer market isn't very firm yet, especially for relievers. But before we get too lost in losing our minds over the bullpen and Pagan having another blowup, let's not forget the offense only produced 2 runs. I just don't expect a lot of wins when we only score 2 runs.
  7. jmlease1
    Wow, that's a brutal assessment. (Any comp to Nishioka is basically saying "this guy can't play in MLB".) The Nick Gordon comp also seems unfair: Gordon has had a healthy season and three times that ABs; I'd be willing to bet by the end of the season Kirilloff has a better BB%, just like I would expect a healthy Kirilloff to hit for much more power than Gordon, even if right now Gordon has the edge on ISO and SLG%. Kirilloff has never drawn a lot of walks, but part of that was because throughout his minor-league career he showed that he could hit pretty much anything around the strike zone and hit it hard. You're not going to tell someone hitting .350 to change their approach and take more strikes until they show they can't handle the balls being thrown at him. He hasn't been able to replicate that in MLB for any length of time, but a lot of that has to be blamed on the injuries he's fought through. He's looked pretty good these last 2 weeks, now that he's back in the majors and was crushing the ball in Saint Paul. I'm still pretty high on him if he can stay healthy.
  8. jmlease1
    Wouldn't surprise me at all if Cave gets dealt to a MLB team that needs a 4th OF at some point this year. He's not in the Twins plans long-term and they've (correctly) resisted a move to promote him back to the MLB roster over guys that needed a look. But it's probably a little too early to get the deal done? Hope Raya is ok. He's really talented but needs innings. Looks like Stankiewicz may have settled down after promotion; a good reminder that not everyone is going to pick where they left off when they move up a level. It'll be interesting to see if he can keep this up and run off a string of good starts. He's not young for his level and never has been as a pro, so it's important for him to keep advancing.
  9. jmlease1
    Disagree on the Manny's smoked beef sandwich; had this last week and thought it was really tasty and while I would normally want an au jus to dip in for a sandwich like this, mine was tender and juicy to the point that I didn't need it. The Red Cow 60/40 sliders come standard with a beer mustard, so I was surprised about the mention that it was needed. These are really good, but make sure you get enough napkins because there is no shortage of grease. BTW I enjoyed the soft-serve ice cream on the upper deck, but when it's in the mid-80's or warmer it melts fast. (also hilarious how high the piled my cone vs my friend; I got at least an extra scoop's worth from standard, lol)
  10. jmlease1
    I have a lot of confidence in Sonny Gray pitching. The only issue with him is whether you can keep him healthy to pitch a full season. He's been a very good pitcher pretty much his entire career (excepting for a season in Oak where he was dealing with injuries and was a bit unlucky and a season in NY where he was unlucky and having to play in NY). I think the Twins got exactly what they needed in him and this start against Cle was exactly the kind of start we were hoping for from him. Offense came out big and it's really nice to see the bottom part of the order carry the load. I know how crazy it makes me when one of our pitchers can get the 7-8 hitters out and it starts a rally so hopefully we inflicted the same pain on Cle. And it's nice to see Sanchez have a big game like this and hopefully he gets on a bit of a roll. Urshela has been very good all year on defense and every time I think his offense might be going to hell he comes through with a big hit or a multi-hit game it seems. We've seemed to be a bit top-heavy on the lineup this season, with Arraez, Buxton, and Correa needing to carry the team often. Hopefully this is a sign that the bottom half of the lineup is getting ready to share more of the load and help gain more blowouts. Let's keep it rolling! Cle is scuffling right now, let's make it worse on them!
  11. jmlease1
    A little bit of a nervy game, because Ryan just didn't look comfortable out there. He wasn't finishing guys off like we've been used to. Fair play to the Rockies, they stayed alive at the plate until they got a pitch to hit, but it really didn't seem like Ryan had it tonight. Appreciate how he battled through it to get five done, though. Duran was just filthy yesterday. the fastball was lightning, 101-102 with good movement. the splinker was ridiculous (I think Smalley's brain melted when he tossed one at 97). Buxton's knee must have been feeling good, certainly no problems for him running the bases! Love seeing him hit triples (still one of the most exciting plays in baseball) and when he turns a single into a double it's enough to get me out of my seat even when I'm at home.
  12. jmlease1
    It's a huge bummer of have Johnson leave, because he's done a fine job in his time here. It's worse because it's in the middle of the season, but that's the way it goes: MLB jobs are on one cycle, college jobs are not and they're year-round activities now too. I'm surprised at the number of people who so harsh on Wes taking another job. It's a substantial raise in pay and a significant lifestyle change (even with recruiting, there's less travel involved than being in MLB) in an environment that he was clearly comfortable and successful in. If he asks to wait for the end of the Twins season, that offer is gone. The Twins can't block the move because it's not in MLB; they could stop him from joining another MLB staff while under contract. But good organizations don't stand in people's way when they want to make a move, especially if it's an advancement for them. The position might be a lateral, but the pay is a big step up. You should never get mad when someone leaves to advance. Worry when you have a bunch of churn that's not related to people moving up in their careers, worry when you have people taking laterals with less pay or downgrades to get out. That's the sign of a poor organization. If people are leaving to advance in their careers consistently, then you're doing it right. Good luck to Wes Johnson. I think he'll be missed. But I do think the Twins have shown a strong ability to hire quality people and not be afraid to look in underrepresented areas and be creative to build their staff.
  13. jmlease1
    I think this is the key aspect: even if Gibson was a good fit for the Twins (he's a quality starter, so it's not like he ISN'T a fit), or if starting pitching was the priority (I don't think it is right now, with starters getting healthy) I don't see the Phillies looking to move him. They're trying to get in the playoffs this year, and are only a few games out. Absent a total collapse, I don't think Gibson is going anywhere.
  14. jmlease1
    It's not that games in September are worth more, it's a) the team has made a determination that having Archer make a start every turn in the rotation with a lower pitch limit is preferable to him pushing out longer, risking injury, and missing 2-8 starts; and b) playoff games ARE worth more, and the team is trying to ensure that he's available come post-season. YMMV on whether the first one is true or not, but so far Archer is staying healthy and on track, and he's a 33 year-old player (even if he looks 25) who only made 5 starts in 2021, zero in 2020, and only 23 relatively ineffective starts in 2019 so it's fair to be concerned that he can't handle the kind of workload he took on at his peak. There's literally zero chance that Rocco is making this decision on his own, and I'm pretty sure they've talked about it. This kind of player program is being designed by a group of people that absolutely includes the training & medical staff. But the medical staff aren't going to say "It's fine for him to go 90 pitches now". They're going to say something more like "He can likely handle an additional pitch count in games where he's not having long, high-stress innings, but it will still increase his recovery time and likely increase his risk of additional injury going forward due to the additional stressors created by adding more load to his arm and body". (or something like that) It's important to remember that the 75 pitch count target isn't about building him up to handle a bigger workload, it's about trying to keep him on the field for the full season and as close to 30 starts as possible. Considering the injuries we've already seen in the rotation, there's certainly logic behind it.
  15. jmlease1
    Archer did well, I thought, though his command isn't quite where I'd like it to be. He's missing some of his pitches when trying to finish off a batter still, but he's still very effective so I'm not going to complain much. I know it's going to drive some people nuts him getting pulled after 5 innings and only 78 pitches, but the Twins are determined to get him through the season healthy and have him ready to go in the fall when we get to playoff time and keeping his workload down from game to game is how they think it will get done. I understand the frustration, but when you look at his injury history over the past few years...it makes sense, regardless of whether anyone likes it or not. Good to see the offense have a better night. Some missed opportunities, but as long as the team has good ABs and hits the ball hard they're going to get the runs. Defense was good tonight as well (anyone who doesn't enjoy the way Correa plays SS is someone who doesn't appreciate defense. The way he fields and throws the ball makes me smile every game). Thornburg got through it, but I didn't love the way he threw. Lot of missed pitches, kind of looks like he overthrows? I'm glad he did the job, but I'm not sure he's a long term solution. Jax, on the other hand, looked excellent. His slider was really biting, even AJ was impressed.
  16. jmlease1
    He's a perfectly fine "break glass in case of emergency" OF to stash in the high minors. If Buxton had gotten hurt for a long period of time, Celestino had been awful again, Gordon showed he couldn't really play CF, and another OF was injured...then you've got a guy with MLB experience to step in. Fortunately, we haven't needed him.
  17. jmlease1
    hahaha, I'm also someone who thinks that people generally overrate the impact of managers on a team generally. Rocco's not worth losing your mind over.
  18. jmlease1
    was he, though? he got outs efficiently overall, but in his last inning he gave up 2 hits and walk and it was definitely looking like the Rockies were starting to figure him out. The 3rd trip through the lineup was definitely looking shaky. Since the bullpen pitched a shutout the rest of the way, I'm confused how anyone can say this was a bad decision?
  19. jmlease1
    Wallner's 3-41 start also including 23 K's. He's rebounded from that incredibly well. Still gets a lot of Ks, which makes me nervous about how sustainable his production is long-term, but until other teams prove that it isn't...time to move him up and let him keep showing. That many walks plus all that power...
  20. jmlease1
    I just came by the game thread to see how people would find a way to blame this loss on the manager. I was "rewarded". People, you can't put this one on the manager. You just can't. The team got 3 hits. Three! If you're going to hang this loss on the manager, then you're lost in a forest of mirrors. They only had 2 baserunners once in the entire game. The offense just didn't show in this game, and the worst defensive team in baseball (that's the Rockies) made several fine plays in the field (couple of nice catches on deep drives, turned some DPs, only one error that ended up meaning nothing). Tough loss, but nice to see Bundy pitching well. Glad to see Thornburg and Duffey getting used and pitching well; we can't afford to have anyone in the bullpen we're afraid to use, so maybe this gives some confidence. Bard definitely looks like someone worth looking into at the deadline to improve the bullpen. It seems unlikely that the Rockies will be competing for the playoffs and should be selling. Will he be able to sustain this all year? Unclear; he's always been a little wild (and is still walking plenty this season) and it's fair to wonder if he can continue to have the best season of his spotty career at 37, but he hunts Ks enough that he should be worth taking a long look at.
  21. jmlease1
    possible, but I think they're trying to get him fully healthy and built up since he's been battling injuries. Wallner just keeps taking walks. Can't blame him, I'm sure he's not getting much to swing at, but it's good that he keeps drawing walks and not expanding the strike zone out of frustration and swinging at marginal stuff. The more he can do to show he knows and can control the strike zone the better off he'll be. He's having a really good season after that dreadful start. I'd say he's ready for promotion.
  22. jmlease1
    well, they just scored 16 runs in three games, an average of 5.33 runs per game. Over the course of a 162 game season, that's 864 runs, which would have led all of baseball in 2021. They're an above average offensive team this year after a pretty slow start from their offense this year (like many). The offense is starting to get healthy, so I don't think it's really the biggest concern.
  23. jmlease1
    Baseball is a funny game. 3 games, total run differential: 1. Twins went 1-2, could easily have gone 2-1, 3-0, or 0-3. It'll make you crazy if you let it! Anyone have Nick Gordon with the game-winning hr and only run today? After last night's explosion? Anyone? (I did not. No way.) Good job, it's appreciated, Nick. Nice work by Smeltzer. Bullpen got back on track and did the job after two rough days. I am surprised that we didn't see Thornburg or Duffey; if you don't trust either of them in a high(er) leverage situation, then I'm not sure what they're doing on the staff. You can have 1 guy in the pen that gets the blowout innings, but I don't think you can afford two guys who might only pitch every 5th day. And if one of them if going to be jettisoned when Ober comes off the IL, then why not use him while you have him? A good win. it'll be interesting to see if Cleveland can stay this hot; their pitching is pretty good again, but I think their offense is going to put up more games like today's than wed night's.
  24. jmlease1
    So, I was at the game last night and it was disappointing to go home with a loss. I'm not surprised to see people up in arms over the bullpen imploding again (it sucked), and it's hardly a shock to see people going after Rocco's bullpen management (there are clearly people on this board who want him fired and are gunning for him at every opportunity; YMMV on whether it's fair or not). But outside of a comment on Kirilloff not handling a grounder (that was not scored as an error) and one comment on Celestino not corralling a deep shot to the wall (that would have been a 5-star catch, IMHO), and baffled by the lack of attention to the Twins poor defense last night. The error by Gordon cost the team a run and was the kind of frustrating careless one that makes your teeth grind. Pitchers not covering bases properly at least three times. The terrible balk that cost a run in a bizarre play that would have scored a run on the awful pickoff throw that Thielbar chucked away (zero points to the always poor Angel Hernandez, who called it so late that he managed to confuse everyone in the stadium including the official scorer and had his usual inconsistent strike zone that baffled both teams). Kirilloff's inability to block the hard grounder at him was disappointing (I wouldn't have scored it an error either) because we've heard about how skilled he is at 1B and it was a key situation. Really rough defense last night. The offense was very good last night, and was nearly even better (quite a few drives to the OF that were hit directly at people and flies that game up just a touch short). Should have been plenty to win. Disappointing to see Gray couldn't get deeper in the game, and extra frustrating for him to give up a dinger to a terrible hitter like Hedges. Cotton had been pitching well and had a rotten night (that HBP sure looked like it hit the bat, but they wouldn't show a replay at the stadium so the assumption was we'd seen another Angel Hernandez classic), Pagan couldn't go two, Jax had back to back biffs after being really good this year...yuck. Literally no one pitched well for the Twins last night. None of them.
  25. jmlease1
    I think there's a lot of belief in Kirilloff for sure, and Larnach isn't that far behind. But I also expect Kirilloff to be our starting 1B next season, so I don't expect him to be particularly in consideration for one of the corner OF spots.
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