jmlease1

I struggle with knowing how to evaluate guys like Mercedes; 18 years old coming off rookie ball? You could tell me he's top ten or down in the 20's and I would probably go "sure?" Great start, and nice to see a guy with great speed showing some skill at the plate, but he's got a lot of levels to go. Festa looks like a player to watch this season. He took a significant leap last year and it'll be really interesting to see how he does in AA. The fastball looks legit and it's impressive to see him add the velocity. If he can refine his off-speed pitches, he could be another Varland-type player. If Wallner makes enough contact, he'll be legit. If he doesn't, then he's more like a left-handed Brent Rooker. I expect he'll dominate AAA, just not sure if he can handle MLB pitching consistently. Miller looks the part of a SS; it'll be interesting to see how his hit tool develops this season. He seems to be learning the strike zone pretty well, but he'll need some more hits. Might come as he matures and gets stronger. I expect to see him in high A this year. Canterino just needs health, but those bastards at Rice might have ruined his arm. He's got all the talent in the world, but I don't know if he can stay healthy enough to start. It's a shame.

Sure, but the question is about depth. And after last season's adventures (where we were already on our 10th starter before June, as noted above), clearly depth matters. I don't think anyone is saying the Twins have a better rotation than Cleveland, but the depth we have (both in MLB and in AAA) arguably makes us better able to withstand injuries this season. Chicago might be in big trouble if any of their starters get hurt/suspended early. Lynn only made 21 starts last season and now he's 36. Clevinger might have Bauer-ed his season.

since this topic is about the OF, I'm going to skip over all the other stuff, but I'm unclear why you're wondering about our CF position. Buxton is an elite player when he's on the field, Taylor is an elite defender in CF and starter quality at the position (and he's the backup), they have 3 other guys on the 26 man roster right now who can play CF in Gordon, Gallo, and Kepler, and Celestino is waiting in AAA. This is the deepest CF we've had in quite a long time. So what exactly are you wondering about?

They 100% do not think Kepler will repeat his 2019 season. If they were convinced of that, Gallo would likely not be here, they would not have looked at dealing Kepler in the offseason. They know that's a fluke year. They are thinking that he will hit with a little more power than last season, which was far and away his worst power production as a major leaguer, and betting that he'll still play quality defense, take walks, and hit around .230. (BTW, Gallo did basically replicate those 2019 numbers for like 2/3 of a season in Texas in 2021. I doubt the front office expects to see that, but it's hardly crazy to think he might produce a season like the 2021 total, and that 121 OPS+ would have tied for 4th on the Twins last season. It won't be aesthetically pleasing to a lot of fans, but it might be productive...)

The defense should be spectacularly good...even if there are injuries. Which is pretty cool. I really do enjoy seeing great outfield defense: watching guys go back on a ball and making that leaping catch (especially against the wall or stealing a HR), flying in with the diving catch, making that perfect throw to cut down a runner, etc is so much fun. So I'm excited to see what this group can do to frustrate the ever-livin' crap out of opposing hitters by catching everything in sight, etc. There are fair concerns about the offense: Gallo & Kepler are likely to be low average hitters at best, and that's less fun, and sometimes not very productive. But a healthy-ish Buxton should still hit in the .250 range along with a decent enough OBP and an excellent SLG, Larnach has shown stretches that he can be a complete player, and Nick Gordon is showing to be a quality hitter. Taylor will not be great, but he's not helpless at the plate: he'll slap some singles and get a few walks. The floor isn't too bad at all...just not as aesthetically pleasing, because there will be a lot of Ks out there. The ceiling is pretty crazy. Best defensive OF for sure. Best overall? It could happen, and it wouldn't require too outlandish an increase in production from guys, mostly just average health and a movement towards career averages for some guys. Kepler's power was completely absent last season...probably had a lot to do with the busted toe. Maybe Gallo was just in an 18 month NYC funk. Larnach had a solid first month, caught fire, and then fell apart after getting hurt. Best overall is possible. Twins have upside, depth, and talent. They are ridiculously good defensively, with 5 guys that look like they are quality to elite defenders. 5! Could be very fun. We're coming up on spring training. Why not be optimistic?

College bats should advance more quickly, but Shuffield certainly did well, jumping that many levels. It will be interesting to see what he does with more reps. Might be small sample size, might be diamond in the rough. (sadly, it's usually small sample size, but rooting for him!) I certainly didn't expect much from him, but I love it when guys take advantage of their opportunities. Curious to see where he starts the season and what position he plays.

Really impressive debut from Rodriguez. I think it's going to be interesting how quickly the Twins push him; he's still so young, but he absolutely raked in his first taste of pro ball at 17! It's not like this was just a handful of ABs either: 200+ ABs ain't nothing. He's got a lot of levels to go through, but it sure would be fun to have one of these teenage signings jump up a little faster and not spend 3 years in rookie ball. Balazovic had a really rough year. Hopefully he can throw it out, come in to camp healthy and strong this year, and do a reset. He's still very talented, and with the depth we have in the rotation there shouldn't be any pressure for him to immediately nail everything and make his MLB debut. (right now he's clearly behind Varland, SWR, and Winder, and Ober could end up starting the season in AAA too) Hope he can shake it all off.

It seems worth trying occasionally?

He's likely to get playing time. Twins like to rotate players and ensure that guys aren't getting beat up through attrition. Gordon does have positional flexibility (even if his best position is probably LF right now, he's passable at 2b & 3b and it wouldn't surprise me to see him give Miranda a break against the occasional righty) and enough speed/baserunning ability to be a late inning sub as well. Injuries will happen (hopefully fewer serious/lengthy ones) and they'll need Gordon to play. We are not a team that lets guys sit on the bench and do nothing (which is why I'm unthrilled about Pagan being in the bullpen LOL)

I was definitely on the Wil Myers train. Thought he made sense as a RH bat who could play some corner OF/1B/DH. I still question the wisdom of the Gallo signing, but I understand the need for OF depth after last year's disaster. If he clears the mendoza Line on his BA, he'll likely be a productive overall hitter for us with his power and patience. And he'll do well in the field. he just can't bat .160 like he has for the last 18 months... BA is not the best stat for determining overall value, but it's weirdly a great indicator for how Gallo is going?

Prepare to be disappointed?

I do think it's a weakness in most organizations, though. the sunk-cost fallacy is one of the hardest to overcome, especially in sports. I don't think Pagan is going to be in any save situations early in the season, you know? but that means you should be able to get equal value or more from someone else without giving the fans something to make ourselves crazy over. (I doubt it'll be an issue in the clubhouse; they're not going to all get a "loser mentality" or some such because pagan blew a hold)

I don't know that it means all that much to have Enlow at 25 and Headrick at 22? Flipping them probably doesn't say much about their ability to succeed and advance. Enlow's younger at the same level. Headrick's healthier. As prospects they're sort of on a similar tier of "some good things here, but questions remain", I guess.

Twins are definitely not afraid to do their off-season work in January! It's probably not always going to work out, but overall it seems to be pretty respectable this year. Obviously re-signing Correa defines the off-season. It doesn't matter how it happened, it got done. Some people are going to call it luck, others will be more willing the credit the work of the front office (probably all depends on whether you went into the offseason wanting this regime to be fired or not), and a lot of us just don't care: he's here. I'm still not wild about the Gallo move, and really wish the Twins had looked to go with a RH bat who could play corner OF/1B/DH. The risk is lower on Gallo for one year, his defense is like to still be very good to excellent out there, and the power is almost certainly still there...but he's been a bad hitter since leaving Texas. It wasn't just NY; the change of scenery in LA didn't do anything for him. he's simply not a major league player if he hits .160 We'll see if he can make enough contact. I'm liking the Farmer move a lot more now that he's not going to be expected to start, but I know we should probably pump the brakes a little and not expect him to be this super-sub who routinely destroys lefties wherever he plays. But it is a role that fits well on this roster. I still want Pagan moved. I just don't want him in this bullpen, and I think the FO is making a mistake in continuing to try and "fix" him. At least this year he's not going to be expected to take high-leverage roles early or often, but I just see him as a guy whose performance isn't going to match his stuff. Sometimes you have to bite the bullet, admit you're wrong about a guy, and move him on. If another team fixes him, that's the risk you have to take, but on a reliever like him it's not that impactful. Reduce the fans PTSD and let him go.

Ooof, Sabato. Not sure I would have put him in the top 30. Think there are a few guys on the outside looking in that have more upside, more tools, and more hope. The power is really impressive, and it's great that he takes walks, but his inability to make contact in A-ball and AA speaks poorly of his future. It's going to be harder and harder as he advances to collect those walks, and pasting mistakes just isn't enough to make you a major-league hitter. the lack of any real defensive upside hurts him too. I'm very very down on him. Sands probably needs to transition to relief, IMHO. He's clearly behind Varland and Woods Richardson (not to mention Ober) in the AAA starter ranks, and even with his struggles Balazovic might still be past him. I'd say Winder is ahead of him too, which doesn't leave him a lot of opportunity to move up as a starter. But adding a tick to his fastball and with that slider? He could be a weapon in the bullpen and it's a transition I'd like to see him make. I'd like to see Rosario in Cedar Rapids (and out of the FSL) to see what his hit tool looks like in high A. I think he's an interesting prospect if he can bring the Ks down. Severino did a great job on promotion to AA; it'll be interesting to see how he progresses this year, especially if he stays healthy. For this far down the list, I like him quite a bit as a guy who could advance up. You can never have too many hitters coming through the minors, and his K rate is fine as long as he keeps that kind of a triple slash IMHO.

Miranda's year two is going to be a very interesting one. Can he punish LHP pitching consistently and be one of the players that will balance out their plethora of LH (mostly OF) bats? Can he make the counter-adjustments to what pitchers were doing to him later in the year? Will he be able to improve defensively at 3B with that being his primary position rather than bouncing around and being asked to play more 1B? The projection systems are pretty high on him overall; if he turns in a season similar to what Steamer or Zips are projecting then he'll have a pretty good year and be an important contributor. I'm a big fan of Miranda; his breakout season wasn't just impressive, it was staggering. He absolutely crushed AA & AAA pitching the entire season. He overcame a horrendous start in the MLB debut to really get a handle on what he needed to do, and was an important contributor. (A lot of players stink in their first taste of MLB and need to go back to the minors to adjust and prepare. Miranda battled through it and got on track on the fly and that impressed me.)

I think the first job this FO had was to modernize the research department, then start rebuilding the farm system. The group they inherited over-achieved the first season of this regime. the 2019 club looked pretty great (minor illusion on the juiced ball it seems), but was a pretty different team already...and was better than the Molitor versions. I think they did try to augment what they had in that squad (adding Donaldson & Maeda, for example) but it didn't happen. Maybe because of COVID, maybe because they made the wrong moves...but I don't think they assessed the 2017 team all that incorrectly. A rotation counting on Mejia, Colon, and Hector Santiago?

I'm not sure he could hold up there either. With his hip and other injuries I just don't see him as a guy who can sit out in the bullpen and then fairly quickly get ready to pitch.

I hope they start Laweryson at AAA. This is his age 25 season, and I'm not sure there's much to be gained by having him beat up on AA hitters again. He's an interesting case since he's not a big velocity guy, and it's unclear whether he's a starter or reliever even now? Cavaco needs to get it going, but he does have tools. He might be another kid who can't apply them to baseball, but it'll be interesting to see if he a late bloomer who figures it out or a bust.

I think this is right in terms of what the front office's philosophy is generally in making trades. They're not looking to deal prospects for rentals because they know they have to be judicious when they send out prospect capital. developing talent internally is always going to be important to the long-term success of the franchise. I think they want long-term sustained success too, not sudden success followed by rapid tear downs. I don't think it is a contradiction: they often look to supplement the roster with veterans on 1 year deals (or 1 year with a team option, etc) in free agency. With trades, they generally don't send out prospects for rentals, but for players that can help immediately (in theory) and for at least another year. The Correa move was highly unusual i terms of signing a free agent to a long-term deal, but at the same time, it sort of falls into the bucket of "extending our own guys", where they are more willing to go long term on players they already know. The Donaldson deal was a bit of an aberration; they had money to spend, a hole to fill, and took a risk on a player in free agency because they looked at the team and tried to capitalize on a window. Coming off a 101 win season, it made sense. I think it's important to realize that while this FO had some patterns and principles that they adhere to, they're not dogmatic about it either. there will be exceptions if they think they can find value or an advantage for the team.

Need to be more specific when you say you don't trust "Lopez": Pablo or Jorge? I think the people who are so down on Jeffers value need to look at the league a little more broadly: the position is a little thin and there aren't that many teams that have 2 quality catchers. He may not have a great arm, but he does well enough blocking the plate & receiving the ball. Adding Vazquez means we have 2 quality catchers and it's an improvement on the Jeffers/Sanchez/Leon group, since Leon can't hit at all and Sanchez never found his power stroke. figuring out catching depth was a big question after last season and it's hard to say they didn't address it. No, they don't have anyone in the system that's going to be competing for time soon, but Jeffers is under team control for another few years, vazquez is signed for 4 years, so there's time to work on the next generation. SS had to get addressed since Royce won't be available until midseason, and they were able to bring back Correa. Done and done. Farmer is a nice backup with positional flexibility. For the first time in a long time, we don't have to wonder who will play SS for the next several years. I felt like they had depth in the rotation, but needed top end improvement. It's an interesting question as to whether P. Lopez gets there. If he's first half PL, then he definitely passes the "Better Than Sonny Gray" test. If he's second half PL, then...doesn't look like it. So I have to say they did better to make the rotation deeper and more...injury resistant? I don't think they've addressed our weakness against LHP particularly well; the Gallo move isn't where I wanted them to go in the OF, though his career splits aren't bad against LHP. Farmer helps, but it might be asking a lot. Having Garlick be depth in AAA rather than needing to be counted on all season is good, and better health generally will help. The bullpen looks a bit better than the start of last season: we know what Duran can do, rather than hope it'll work. Jax showed he could be effective too, and Jorge Lopez certainly has the ability and will likely be better not having to deal with being traded. Thielbar is proven, Moran is talented, and thank god we're not counting on Pagan to be a major contributor. If Alcala gets healthy it looks pretty strong, though I wish they had another guy who could consistently throw 2 innings every 2-3 days. And I really wish they hadn't kept Pagan. Talking themselves into "fixing" him feels like sunk cost fallacy to me, but overall the bullpen looks ok. I think they made several moves that tried to raise the floor and address depth, and that matters. I tend to agree with the Falvey/Levine philosophy of trying to give as few ABs and innings to bad players as possible. I thought they should have looked to move Kepler (especially after adding Gallo), but I definitely agree with the idea of not having to reach so far down into the minors that you're playing your 10th choice in the OF...especially when the 8th or 9th choice is out there too. (hell, the twins got all the way down to 12th pick when they sent Beckham out there and grabbed Billy Hamilton off the street)

I think he still has a future, but he's also showed that he needs work on his game, including the mental side of it. There's still a lot of talent there, but necessity pulled him up the majors long before he was really ready for it and the interruptions in developmental play probably didn't help him very much in his overall evolution as a player. With Taylor in place, there's unlikely to be any pressure for him to be in MLB this season unless he's playing his way up there. Hopefully that gives him the room to work on his swing and approach at the plate, cut down on the mental mistakes in the field and on the bases, and grow as a player. Celestino is still in the Twins plans, I think. A good year in AAA sets him up to be back as the 4th OF in 2024 (when Gallo & Kepler could be gone, Taylor could be gone, and there could be openings in the OF) or be a significant trade piece for a team needing a defender in the OF (maybe Royce Lewis or Austin Martin passes him in the CF ranks). While I'm not all that enthusiastic about Taylor...I can understand the move. It does send a message to Celestino that he has to improve and that's not a bad thing.

Julien has to be on this list. He had a monster year at AA, his hit tool is advanced, he's likely to start the year in AAA and if he's crushing it there, then he'll be looked at as an injury replacement if any of the non-SS guys go down for an extended period of time.

I love a great change-up. So fun to watch. And we've been lucky to see some terrific ones here in Minnesota: Frankie V, Radke, and especially Johan. So I kinda love the fact that Lopez's best out pitch is the change. (It's one of the reasons I can abide Jovani Moran's wildness, because that knee-buckling change is so fun) I'm looking forward to seeing Lopez pitch. If the issue for his second-half slippage is a matter of getting his release point back to a certain spot...that might be easily correctable in spring training, especially if a now-healed ding was helping cause it.

These ideas are mostly driven by people who don't like the state of baseball and don't like the manager and the front office. Sonny Gray complains once about not going deeper in games and suddenly no pitcher will ever sign an extension here because all starters only want to come to a place where they are ridden like Dusty Baker did with the Cubs 20 years ago. You're right: they will let pitchers who can go deeper, go deeper. And the players like Rocco and like playing for him. I'm guessing a lot of them like winning more, so they're not going to fall on their swords for him if the team ain't winning, but there's literally zero signs Rocco has lost the clubhouse.