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ashbury

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Everything posted by ashbury

  1. ashbury
    I was replying to the Dyson Debacle. Would you have started a healthy Big Red in place of Randy?
  2. ashbury
    Thanks for making me revisit those box scores. Mariano Rivera or Goose Gossage covering an inning or two to finish things out would not have altered the trajectories of any of those games.
  3. ashbury
    Click the photo. I dare you.
  4. ashbury
    Wheels. Within wheels. Within other, you know, round things that can be used for transport and stuff.
  5. ashbury
    Approves:
  6. ashbury
    As long as the bat plays. But if most of a player's value resides in his glove, then the defensive spectrum doesn't mean as much. And the hard part, at this stage in the draft, is that players who have both bat and a nominal shot at SS are few and far between. Hopefully that's what the FO has found in some hard-to-sign draftees?
  7. ashbury
    Should save us from having to spend a draft pick for one of those, two or three years down the line.
  8. ashbury
    I'm glad to see they got catchers. Otherwise there would be a lot of passed balls at Ft Myers this season.
  9. ashbury
    Have they been assigned to teams yet? Looks like neither pitched in 2021 nor so far this year. TJS or similar in both cases?
  10. ashbury
    Wow, what a terrible plate umpire in that final video, LOL.
  11. ashbury
    Or, grow into it. Eduardo Escobar was a prime example, who we watched develop some power when initially there seemed to be no chance of that.
  12. ashbury
    Conversely, during the shutouts I don't think the problem has been too few guys swinging for the fences. We have a Feast Or Famine offense and Sano is in that mold.
  13. ashbury
    I suppose the lesson I take is to try to write more clearly, so that when I purposely post something opaque it will be more obvious on first sight.
  14. ashbury
    Just as Batman is not the hero Gotham City wants, but the one that they need, today's portion of the Twins' draft was probably necessary.
  15. ashbury
    The devil's in the details, but conceptually the thought is sound. The top 10 catchers in 2021 measured by WAR include 7 players who were age 30 and over. One more was 29. By that age, how they were originally signed/drafted fades into obscurity versus the decisions that cause them to be acquired or retained. The very top two, Perez and Contreras, were indeed international signings, whom their respective teams saw fit to pay even after arbitration. Only Sean Murphy (3rd round 2016) and Will Smith (1st round 2016) were young guys in 2021 playing with the teams who drafted them. Using that 2016 draft as a measure, it wasn't for lack of trying. White Sox and Angels also tried in that first round before the Dodgers took Smith, and then 6 other teams (including our Twins with Rortvedt) rolled the dice on a catcher before Murphy was picked. All those catchers could still contribute in some way going forward, but the idea of latching onto a top catcher with a high draft pick is elusive at best. I mean, all draft picks are elusive, but it seems to me that the track record tells us that solving your catching problems through the draft is elusiver.
  16. ashbury
    Because of the nature of any draft, this will literally always be true, and not just PR. For every team. Beyond the first few picks, every team evaluates their own way and their ranked list will be different from every other. So, each player they pick is almost by definition one that every other team ranked lower than whom they respectively chose - but your team doesn't know this until after the fact and was sweating bullets that their guy would be sniped away from them. #gametheory
  17. ashbury
    Daulton Shuffield! Finally got that college SS we were hoping for.
  18. ashbury
    All nine picks so far are college players too. Beginning to spot some trends...
  19. ashbury
    "Daddy? Where do catchers come from?" "Nobody knows, honey. Nobody knows."
  20. ashbury
    I think he's got enough arm to stick at SS, our FO's apparent theme for this 2022 draft.
  21. ashbury
    Ben Ross, Notre Dame shortstop.
  22. ashbury
    When you don't sign a draftee, that exact amount of bonus pool money is taken away.
  23. ashbury
    I think those explanations are in sync with the concept of "risk". I'm coming around more to the idea that bonus demands played a role. And the two issues are hardly exclusive. Going over-slot on a player deemed to carry higher risk than average turned off the bean-counters perhaps at those other teams. Modern analytics boils down to risk-reward. Our FO shows over and over that they consider injury risk to be somewhat manageable, more so than most other teams, so they'll compute risk-reward differently. I hope they're right, because it's perhaps my biggest disagreement with them. Or, maybe, #48 was about the right spot for Prielipp's risk-reward, and some other team was about to take him too, and our Twins wouldn't have touched him at (say) #35 either..
  24. ashbury
    mlb.com had a good explanation on their site this morning, in their draft preview article. Now that the draft has completed so many picks, it's been bumped and I can't find the one that I saw. A bit of searching finds this from a few months ago, and maybe answers most of your questions: https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-draft-competitive-balance-rounds-set-2022 https://www.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/competitive-balance-draft-picks The basic idea is to give the sad-sack teams an extra pick after the first round. Our Twins aren't the saddest of sacks and thus got Round B, not Round A. I can't for the life of me understand a system that doesn't put Oakland near the head of the handout line, though. "And we’ll see you … tomorrow night!" Well, afternoon, actually.
  25. ashbury
    Then why do you suppose he dropped? Don't get me wrong, I like the pick, and I think it's a sound gamble. But IMO we should view this pick with eyes wide open, that it's riskier than many alternatives.
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