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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    I think it's pretty clear this year is a decisive one for the Twins franchise. Coming off their first playoff win and advancement in 20 years with a relatively new face of ownership, a GM on an expiring contract, a failed TV deal and a president and CEO who has consistently failed to meet expectations for several straight years, the Twins are in a position to totally clean house.
  2. bean5302
    I think ownership will be ready for him to move on from Falvey rather than the opposite case. Ownership was pretty pointed last year the bar was raised in terms of expectations on the field, and they didn't extend him after the playoffs last year. Falvey is on an expiring contract along with Thad Levine, who couldn't even secure a 2nd round interview with the Red Sox this past offseason. All in all, Falvey's got a pretty good gig. Mid market payroll, low fanbase expectations, nice facilities, good location. Not sure where he'd move on up to? San Francisco, maybe San Diego? Lots of competition for those roles.
  3. bean5302
    Yeah, he's 19. Just like every single other player drafted last year out of high school who is either at A-ball or higher ranked already. The sample size of 26 games this year is getting significant because of the level of competition he's playing against, being able to add it on to last year, and the results have been steady. He was a 5th overall pick, not some round 15 unknown raw prospect. There are expectations with come with being 5th overall and a $7.1MM signing bonus, and one of those expectations is to be able to drive the ball. The expectation is to be dominant against a moderate increase in competition level over top D1 college teams. In 173 A-ball plate appearances, Jenkins has managed just 3 HR and 9 XBH total. It's not that Jenkins is a poor player or a bust in general. Relative to expectations, and scouting, he's got some work to do. Jenkins was an elite athlete swimmer and was drafted at 6'3" and 210lbs. I'm not sure how much raw power you expect he will add to his game with muscle alone, but there's precious little room for an bigger number on the scale with him remaining a potential CF. Obviously, Jenkins should be able to re-work his swing to find more power with his existing frame, that's just not something you'd expect a lot for the pedigree of draft selection he came with. Jenkins is going to take some extra time to develop, and because he's not doing the things you'd expect from a player in his position, I moved him down my top org prospects.
  4. bean5302
    It came with a 7 year $105MM contract and a full NTC for 5 of those years. That contract was a landslide win for Buxton, and it came before Buxton even hit free agency. I'm not sure why you're appear to be taking the position players don't ever waive their NTC. It happens all the time. Players also approve trades under 10-5 rules all the time. Most players aren't in the business of trying to screw their existing teams over. It doesn't look good for their next round of free agency. Why would Buxton want to remain on a team that doesn't want him? Furthermore, what team who wasn't expecting to compete for a World Series, and didn't have significant payroll capacity would want Buxton? He'd obviously only attract interest from mid-market or large market teams who were competitive.
  5. bean5302
    To have more than 2 MLB caliber pitches? His calling card was strikeouts, but those vanished at the MLB level as he was laser focused on avoiding walks. Even so, he was still pretty wild. Basically, Festa looked pretty raw, and he's 24 now.
  6. bean5302
    Oh, the poor White Sox fans. Though, being that awful does make it kind of fun to speculate on whirlwind trades etc. Too bad their ownership is more toxic than Snake Island.
  7. bean5302
    Not interested in Sears at all. We don't need another Tommy Milone.
  8. bean5302
    He's had 6 weeks to do that in his second go 'round of the lowest level of full season professional baseball. Again, not what is expected from a #5 overall pick.
  9. bean5302
    I agree. So much fluff in these recent articles on Jenkins. I dropped him to 3rd in my org prospects list. It's time for him to prove he can handle the lowest range of professional competition with more than pop ups and grounders while DH'ing.
  10. bean5302
    Again, players vetoing trade proposals is rare. It has happened, like Eduardo Rodriguez, but it was pretty shocking to everybody when Rodriguez vetoed it. In 2027, Buxton has a 5 team trade list, which means as part of his contract, he doesn't have 10-5 rights anymore. There are 5 teams the Twins can ship him to regardless of whether or not he likes it. Beyond that, Buxton is on a 2 year $30MM contract at that point. If Buxton has trade value, and he probably does have surplus value at 2 years and $30MM, the Twins are likely to move him. Of course, this is all semantics as "likely" depends on a whole host of things.
  11. bean5302
    So our #5 overall draft pick is about average for A ball exit velocity. While he's making contact, Fangraphs is showing a nightmarish 30% pop up rate on his fly balls, and a 43% ground ball rate which is higher than you'd like to see. To sum it up, the quality of contact for Jenkins has actually been pretty rough, and when he does hit it hard for him, it's hit hard at about about the league average. This is what's led to the .115 ISO, again, in A ball. Average in A-ball is not what you hope for from the #5 overall pick in baseball. Jenkins is 6'3" tall and 210lbs with a very athletic build already. He's not like Nick Gordon who was 6'0" and 160lbs when drafted where you could expect a guy to put on 25-30lbs of muscle.
  12. bean5302
    They want to make sure they try to churn out as many poor fielders as they can.
  13. bean5302
    Jhoan Duran is dramatically, and I do mean "dramatically" overvalued in this article. He's a good, not elite, relief pitcher. He's arb eligible next year and has a negative fWAR this year thanks to his HR problems leading to a 4.24 FIP. His ERA/FIP/xFIP lead to an overall mid/upper 2's guy who you'd expect to put up 1.2ish WAR per year. Joe Nathan Glen Perkins Rick Aguilera Taylor Rogers Eddie Guardado Jhoan Duran That's about how I'd rank the closers in Twins history right now. Jhoan Duran throws hard, but Griffin Jax is worth more than Duran now. Brooks Lee's value is tough to gauge. Lee straight up for Julien would be 50/50 trade teams would make right now based on Baseballtradevalues. I get it, Lee was really exciting his first couple games, and he's been hyped to Pluto, but the reality is Lee just isn't viewed as a superstar type of player around the league, he's more like a Jorge Polanco ceiling type. Occasional All Star good, but he's not viewed by many outside Twins territory as a likely superstar type player.
  14. bean5302
    This is about trade value of Twins players. Not whether or not the Twins would trade them.
  15. bean5302
    Some other top 100 prospects and how they rank at Baseballtradevalues Jenkins = 63.8 Lee = 30.8 Julien = 30.1 Keaschall = 20.7 Festa = 13.7 Matthews = 11.2 Gonzalez = 11.0 Some frontline to mid rotation starting pitcher value Cease 26.8 Gallen 26.4 Fedde 20.9 Luzardo 17.2 Eflin 17.1 Gray 10.6 Flaherty 8.5 Kikuchi 5.3 Eovaldi 4.8 Scherzer 3.6 Gausman 0.2 Verlander -1.8 Bassitt -5.7 Darvish -21.8 With the Diamondbacks once again over .500, I'd think Gallen would be hard to obtain, but I'd love for the Twins to snap him up if Arizona falters.
  16. bean5302
    I don't understand why the Twins didn't line up to trade Boushley for Jackson Holliday rather than DFA'ing him. After all, being demoted for a reset in AAA means the player is worthless. You know, like Matt Wallner, and Trevor Larnach, Simeon Woods Richardson, Bailey Ober and the like.
  17. bean5302
    I'm not sure about stuff at the moment. I know I wouldn't have Raya in the top 10, and Festa would be way at the back of that too. 1. Brooks Lee 2. Emmanuel Rodriguez 3. Walker Jenkins 4. Zebby Matthews 5. Luke Keaschall 6. Kaelen Culpepper 7. Andrew Morris 8. David Festa 9. Charlee Soto 10. Gabriel Gonzalez Lee will drop off soon, Rodriguez has shown he can hit in the high minors. Jenkins is struggling to make good contact (tons of pop ups, super low ISO) and drive the ball in A ball. Matthews was the best pitcher in AA, Keaschall is just 21 and destroying AA. Festa only has 2 MLB caliber pitches so he's destined for the bullpen. Soto is young, and Gonzalez needs to show more bat in A+ ball. I've always been more results oriented than swooning over draft profiles and draft pick pedigree than the average person. Prove the scouting reports.
  18. bean5302
    Edouard Julien (30) + Marco Raya (5) -> Jesus Luzardo (19) + Andrew Nardi (16) That's a trade.
  19. bean5302
    I wanted to point a little something out to folks on the NTC. No trade clauses aren't typically used to stick to their current team. They're typically used by players to negotiate contract extensions with the new team. If players are being traded away, they're likely going from a non-competitive team to a winning team on a path to the playoffs, and that's a very desirable position to be in. If a NTC player's existing team is doing great, it's unlikely they're going to try and trade a player who was expensive/valuable enough to command an NTC in the first place. Does a player with an NTC have trade value? Absolutely. If the Twins were to approach Byron Buxton about a trade to the Orioles, (where there is clearly a need) he'd replace Cedric Mullins, and the Orioles were willing to offer a new contract to Buxton's which would enhance his compensation, would Buxton block it? Keep in mind, Buxton's NTC ends after 2026, and you have to imagine the Twins are likely going to cut ties with him when it does. 1. Trading team doesn't want you. 2. New team is a likely World Series candidate. 3. Contract is improved.
  20. bean5302
    Woof!!!! This trade. Wooooooooof! Bernardino isn't worth much as a 32 year old reliever with a good, but not great history, and you do not ever trade a cost controlled, premium MLB position player for a middle reliever. While he has a sparkly 1.69 ERA and a 2.76 FIP, that's because Bernardino hasn't surrendered a single home run this year which is not sustainable. His xFIP is 4.10 and his SIERA is 4.00. He's going to regress. I've never been Julien's biggest fan, but the idea a two month reset in AAA takes a guy who was easily more valuable than Brooks Lee now sets the guy down to near PTBNL status is far too pessimistic. Boston would be signing papers and calling security to evict Bernardino from his hotel room before the phone call was even over. Eduoard Julien's trade value is still showing at over +30 at Baseballtradevalues (reviewing prosposed trades) which included a trade to the White Sox for Eric Fedde and Tanner Banks pretty much all on Julien's own.
  21. bean5302
    Generally, future WAR x 8 - future salary = approximate surplus value. Pablo Lopez is probably $80MM - $69MM = $11MM surplus. He's about to start earning that $22MM a year and he looks like a 3 WAR pitcher. Not a lot of excess value there.
  22. bean5302
    Santana absolutely 100% kept Miranda from playing at the start of the season.
  23. bean5302
    Jenkins -> Cedar Rapids, Gonzalez -> Wichita, Rodriguez -> St. Paul is the likely train of events after the trade deadline.
  24. bean5302
    I wouldn't have criticized them because that's exactly what I wanted them to do. There are always some waiver wire pick up guys who were as good as Santana was on average over his previous few seasons. It turns out, the Twins didn't need Santana.
  25. bean5302
    I think everybody is aware Santana is superior to Miranda at 1B. Most people, including myself, don't care. 1 WAR = 10 runs saved. .030 of OPS = 1 WAR-ish Miranda +4 WAR over Santana offensively. Maybe -1 WAR under Santana defensively. It's not a wash. Assuming Miranda played the same at the plate, he's a much more valuable player than Santana.
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