Jump to content
Joe Ryan versus the Rangers, join the conversation! ×
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

bean5302

Verified Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    6,715

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    35

 Content Type 

Profiles

News

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospects Ranking

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

Minnesota Twins Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits

Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Pick Tracker

2026 Minnesota Twins Draft Pick Tracker

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    I expect Lopez to be the kind of pitcher he's been historically, and I expect a lot of the concern here is from the constantly hyped and equally ridiculous "Cy Young Favorite" trope after his playoff performances last year made fan sites lose their minds projecting him to take about 17 steps forward for 2024. Lopez Career: 3.90 ERA, 3.66 FIP, 3.62 xFIP Previous 3 seasons (2021-2023): 3.57 ERA, 3.47 FIP, 3.40 xFIP Nowhere near Cy Young consideration, but definitely a guy you want starting in the playoffs.
  2. bean5302
    Comca$t isn't going to lose money or even a little profit to broadcast the Twins game. As a perennial winner of the "most hated company in America", Comca$t has an even greater level of monopoly, arrogance and disinterest in customers than Bally. MLB has done everything it possibly can to discourage expanding its fanbase, and the blackout rules are front of the line.
  3. bean5302
    The "stuff" talent level of pitchers at AAA is often lower than AA. The control and polish of most pitchers at AAA is much higher than AA. AAA is a significantly harder level than AA for pitchers and hitters. The biggest jump in MiLB is from A+ to AA in my opinion, with AA to AAA being the next hardest step up. Walk rates vary between AA and AAA for more reasons than just the robo ump, including the fact you have a lot of AAAA hitters with MLB experience drawing walks at AAA, and not all batters see an increase in walk rates. Brooks Lee, for example, saw his walk rate drop from 10.3% in AA to 8.9% in AAA last year. In addition, you're narrowing the field quite a bit as not all players reach AAA, and the pitchers who do spend time at AAA often need to work on their control and polish as a final step before MLB. Just blaming robo umps (which is tantamount to saying most umpires call a smaller strike zone than actual) doesn't seem realistic to me. Especially given how robo umps have only existed in all AAA for 2023. Rodriguez has very little left to prove at AA at this point with 528 plate appearances at the level and climbing all while owning a wRC+ of 145-205.
  4. bean5302
    Keep in mind with WPA, time frame counts as well as the percentage chance of winning or losing begins to oscillate with half innings especially towards the end of the game because even a single run in a 0-0 or 2-2 (for that matter) game makes a big change in win likelihood in say the 7th or 8th or 9th inning.
  5. bean5302
    The question on Rodriguez was not whether or he could hit at AA, it's whether he can produce at MLB. That depends on whether the BB% turns into hits or Ks because it sure as heck isn't going to stay north of 20% in the big show. Will he turn into .200/.275/.375 with a 10% BB and 50% K rate? Or will he turn into .275/.400/.500 with a 15% BB and 30% K rate? To know that, he needs a promotion to AAA sooner than I anticipated.
  6. bean5302
    Is there anybody who wouldn't take Martin over Margot at this point? I think everybody would, and picking up Margot really looks like a horrible move. His sprint speed is a miserable (relative to his historical speed) 26.9 ft/sec this year which means he's just not even an option in CF. Anything below 28.0 ft/sec is a liability in CF, and anything below mid 27s is a huge liability. Margot is officially a corner OF who can't hit at this point. Total debacle for a team which had a tight budget. Maybe Falvey will swallow his pride and DFA Margot if Larnach keeps hitting a little longer by proving he's able to recognize pitches better. Until then, I suspect Falvey will be unwilling to risk losing depth with some track record.
  7. bean5302
    .226/.294/.371 OPS .665 wRC+ 94. Bad batting average. Horrible on base percentage. Bad slugging percentage. Below average overall package. That being one of the best bats the Twins had is not only inaccurate, it isn't a good thing. Martin's great as a league minimum salary backup/utility type. A guy who can plug holes when injuries crop up who prevents the team from having to go out pay millions for guys like Margot. Certainly valuable, but in that 1-2 WAR role player category. Martin isn't the kind of guy you want as a first option on the depth chart at anything other than maybe 2B where his bat might play well enough, and his arm and range might play well enough to put up a 2 WAR season.
  8. bean5302
    For whom? Miranda, who clearly held his own for a full season in 2022 when his shoulder didn't need surgery and raked in a full year of AAA the year before that. There's plenty of reason to believe he can be an MLB starter and he's on his last option. Martin has hit around league average for over 1,000 plate appearances in the high minors... and did about the same at the MLB level nearly dead on matching his projected wRC+ from ZiPS, Steamer, FGDC, THE BAT, THE BAT X, and ATC DC. A little pop, above average speed, doesn't K a ton, doesn't walk a ton, good hit tool but lacks the power to turn fly balls into home runs, average arm. Austin Martin is a good backup/utility guy. Which is what everybody has been expecting out of him for two years now.
  9. bean5302
    Austin Martin looks like the very definition of a utility player to me. Miranda undoubtedly stayed up because he looks like a solid starter.
  10. bean5302
    Attendance has been pretty rough for the games I've been to this year. Seeing thousands of fans lined up outside Oracle Park 90min before game time in SF was a real eye-opener. Hopefully attendance picks up!
  11. bean5302
    I suppose the Twins might rely on Castro in CF considering the fact his bat has finally started to show up. If he'd remained in the cellar of performance, Castro actually still had an option left.
  12. bean5302
    Jackson has already been outrighted, too. I'd suspect he would decline being outrighted off the roster.
  13. bean5302
    I was at the Pirates at Giants game Saturday night in San Francisco. Bad defense was the name of the game. SF fielders had multiple errors scored as "hits" and literally dropped balls on easy double plays. It was rough to watch.
  14. bean5302
    Royce Lewis started up baseball activities about 10 days ago and was expected to begin his running progression last week. Probably more news by the end of this week, I'd suspect. I wouldn't expect a rehab assignment to start before next week, though. Maybe mid May at the earliest?
  15. bean5302
    As much as I hate it, I think you're probably right about the Twins deciding to lean on Martin in CF. The Twins have avoided using Margot in CF which is pretty infuriating to me considering the Twins already had plenty of corner OF depth... but Derek Falvey and shiny things... Miranda is hitting well now .292/.320/.500 OPS .820 wRC+ 135 production and low K rate is awfully hard to send to AAA, but the roster construction makes it a real mess.
  16. bean5302
    Here's hoping the Twins let Soto succeed and don't try to rebuild his delivery and mechanics to get 0.1mph more out of him if his stuff is working and he's healthy.
  17. bean5302
    Largest 6 starting pitcher contracts in baseball. Yamamoto = $325MM Cole = $324MM Strasburg = $245MM deGrom = $185MM Nola = $172MM Rodon = $162MM Lets look at the top 4 relievers... Diaz = $102MM Chapman = $86MM Jansen = $80MM Melancon = $62MM Reliever contracts (low innings, more appearances) are generally 3-4x less than starters of the same ranking, and 1/2 the AAV. Anybody who believes starting pitchers are going to be on board with the strategy of tanking their value certainly isn't considering the impact of fewer innings/WAR. There's a reason why Sonny Gray was PO'd with Baldelli in 2022. Gray was trying to get paid for his next contract, and that was going to require him eating innings.
  18. bean5302
    The number of injuries the Twins have experienced, all at the same time out of the gate, has been a more than I'd reasonably expect. I do think having Lewis, Correa, Kepler, and Duran all out at the same time for significant time to start the season off has impacted the team in the W/L category, but I don't think it's hurt the team any more than the roster construction in the first place.
  19. bean5302
    2023 5ft splits. Wallner = 0.00, 0.53, 0.83, 1.09, 1.32, 1.54, 1.74, I think you know what happens from here on... Larnach = 0.00, 0.52, 0.82, 1.08, 1.32, 1.54, 1.75, The players have the same acceleration curve for the first 20 feet or so. Larnach's route running is better as Wallner's reaction and first step are rough.
  20. bean5302
    Front office for not addressing a single need they had coming into the offseason. The Twins have a higher payroll this year than 5 of 12 playoff teams last year and one of the teams in the World Series (Arizona). They have the 2nd highest payroll in the AL Central this year, behind the White Sox by like $2MM. The ownership has green lighted 5 major contracts in the last 4 years. Donaldson, Buxton, Correa, Lopez, Correa. Need top rotation arm to replace Gray: Nope Need every day outfielder who can cover center field: Nope Need good power RH bat: Nope
  21. bean5302
    Can't steal unless they're on base and Baldelli actually makes the call to try.
  22. bean5302
    LOL, no he is not. Wallner (28.2->28.0 ft/sec) is literally as fast as Royce Lewis (28.4->28.2 ft/sec) and Austin Martin (27.9 ft/sec) who are all on the edge of center fielder speed. Larnach is like 26.5 ft/sec (below average). Larnach's defensive instincts are great, though. Wallner looks awkward out there, but Wallner has a higher defensive ceiling than Kepler. No chance Wallner gets called up until he rakes for a few weeks, though. He's looked ugly at the plate for a few weeks now.
  23. bean5302
    7th professional year in baseball, a27 season, looked like a bust from 2019-2022, didn't hit well in AAA last year.
  24. bean5302
    My opinion has been Festa = Strotman for a long while now. Can't or won't throw strikes. I liked seeing only 1 BB in 3.1 innings last night, but not the 4 hits which came along with the lack of walks. WHIP is one of the most important stats for me. Festa's WHIP is 1.33, 2.25, 2.62, 1.00, 1.50 in his starts so far with 64, 57, 69, 50, 49 pitch counts. Great for 3 innings! Not so great if you need a guy to be a starter who will go 5.0+ and 90+ pitches. How will the Twins even know if he can hold velocity after 70 or 80 pitches to be a legit starter? I do not care for the handling of these guys. Festa's outings last year: bold where there was a change of more than 20% from previous 51, 72, 83, 79, 81, 71, 70, 68, 62, 75, 78, 78, 69, 35, 25, 50, 64, 63, 45, 66, 73, 92, 91, 61 Like WTF? Maybe you'll pitch the equivalent of 2.0 innings, maybe you'll pitch 6.0?
  25. bean5302
    For sure. It's primarily the K rate here. No qualified hitter over .282 had a K rate of 24.0% or higher. Incredibly difficult to hit .300 with a K rate north of 20%.
×
×
  • Create New...