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jkcarew

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Everything posted by jkcarew

  1. jkcarew
    Sounds good, but... The first game was scripted, I don't think it tells us anything for the season beyond who he thinks his top guys are...which we already knew. And I don't think that's just a Rocco thing for openers. Pablo Lopez wasn't going more than 6 innings....J Lopez, Jax, and Duran were all going to get an inning (or so). Thielbar was going to show up if the game situation demanded it. It did. Other than that, he may have had a moment to reflect on the sequencing of J Lopez vs Jax. That's about it. I'm fine with this on opening day with a scheduled off day. He wasn't going to stretch the starter much right out of the box, and he wanted his main guys to get their feet wet. I'll look for Rocco to get more 'situational' as the season wears on. But, even though I've been critical of Rocco here, you can only do so much. As they relate to a specific pitcher's strengths, batting orders are random...deliberately so. And then there's the 3-batter rule. You can't control that much. It's mostly just knowing when (and when not) to pull the starter (both from a tactical and longer-term perspective); only burning your top guys in leverage; and knowing when you can (or have to) give the bottom guys a chance in leverage. This is what Rocco can control, and where I think there's room for improvement. Also, from a mental and preparation standpoint, there is some value in routine (i.e., I know I'm the seventh inning guy). Again how this is balanced against situational needs is where the art (not really science) of being good comes in.
  2. jkcarew
    Now that Cleveland has him, he'll be great. 😬
  3. jkcarew
    Got two big outs (though in a losing cause) opening day. Fastball was clocking 97...actually a little down from what I remember with the Twins. Command was the challenge when we had him.
  4. jkcarew
    If the answer was 'Yes', the solution would be to trade one or two for hitting. I think the value you would get for the starters you would be willing to trade at this time, answers the question for you. I think the trade market would confirm that the Twins have a lot of number 4-5 -ish starters (and a small number of 1-3 -ish). The return probably isn't worth the risk of losing the depth...at least while the team is in contention. Two things could change this later in the season or this off-season, IMO. Probably more like a combination of these two. One, a prospect and/or one of the 4-ish guys makes a huge leap.... Two, the team doesn't compete in 2023 due, at least in part, to a weak offensive lineup (which is very possible, especially if Kirilloff falls by the wayside and Lewis doesn't/can't perform at some point, Kepler/Gallo don't bounce back, etc.)
  5. jkcarew
    I don't think fans expect to get the unvarnished inside information on a real-time basis. But there's plenty of opportunity, as an organization, to at least present yourself as TRYING to be more forthcoming and timely with a certain level of information. The first step is for the organization to realize/admit that there is a problem. Whether the organization believes the problem is 'real' or 'perception' is irrelevant, IMO. If it is a perceived issue with your customers, it's going to have an impact on your business eventually...at least at the margins. I don't think the Twins are there. Nor are most MLB organizations (and the NBA is worse here). IMO, it's a general arrogance among organizations that has slowing grown over the years from the fact that a growing...now dominating...percentage of revenue doesn't come directly from the ticket-buying public.
  6. jkcarew
    Nice story. And it’s a nice story.
  7. jkcarew
    ‘bout time. was never going to get better until the mlb players made it a priority.
  8. jkcarew
    Pablo cruised.
  9. jkcarew
    Looks like both teams are winning the trade so far. Is that possible? Sole possession of first-place. We'll all be up into the wee hours keeping track of that Cleveland/Seattle game!
  10. jkcarew
    Don't you have to assume that Taylor is going to play more games in Center than Buxton? I think you do. And in that case, I don't think you can give the Twins that category. Now, if you added a DH category...and assumed that Twins would be 50% Buxton and 50% 'host of others'...would you give the Twins DH? Jose Abreu out of the division...a push with Cleveland and Josh Bell?
  11. jkcarew
    Agreed. All I'm saying is that going deeper into games is an approach that really isn't available until these guys get stretched out. That used to happen in spring training. Now, it happens over the first month of the season.
  12. jkcarew
    The Miguel Sano Memorial Best Shape Of His Life Award I always liked and defended Sano…but that sh-t’s funny! All I ask is that you remove the ‘Memorial’ part. I like to think that Miggy is alive and well, smiling and getting paid to play ball…somewhere.
  13. jkcarew
    I don’t see how we can possibly know or judge Correa’s leadership value. Players are not going to lift the veil, beyond obligatory sound-bites, when it comes to what goes on in the clubhouse, on the road, etc. All we can expect to get is a general feeling of whether a player is liked or respected…or not. But that really doesn’t have anything to do with leading…all leaders have to start out as ‘respected’, but not all ‘respected’ players lead or want to be considered a leader. You’d hope your leaders emerge from a small pool of the best players. So, in that sense, Correa would be a great candidate. But how ‘good’ or ‘natural’ he is in that role…is probably known to some, but speculation for us.
  14. jkcarew
    Good call on Celestino. He really needed to stand out from the get-go given the soon-to-be numbers crunch in OF. Didn’t get the opportunity. Let’s take a TBD on the FO being a spring winner. Deep doesn’t necessarily mean good. It just means you have a relatively high floor. This team stands a very real chance of being bad offensively. The team was middle of the pack last year, and there’s risk that with Arraez gone and Taylor playing most games in Center…not to mention questions regarding Polanco…that it gets worse, not better. Relying on too many established guys like Kepler and Gallo being “better than they were last year” doesn’t have a great track record of success. Nor does predicting more than a half season out of Buxton, no matter what position he plays. Could it all come together? Sure. But, let’s wait and see. The starting staff lifts the upside, but how much really?. How much better are we at the top of the rotation? A lot? I don’t see a meaningfully higher ceiling unless it comes from guys we didn’t even see this spring…like, Kirilloff becoming healthy and really good, or Lewis joining mid-season and being a star, or Buxton playing 100+ games in center with 500+ PA.
  15. jkcarew
    Man, would love to see Larnach turn a corner...would be huge. I hope Buxton's 8 PA (with 5 K) doesn't mean anything. Obviously, it doesn't mean he's going to K in 62% of his PA this year...but you'd think if they are going to make him an every-day DH to start the year, they would have peeled him out of his bubble enough to establish some live/game timing. Seems like he's always been a fast starter. This year should put that to the test.
  16. jkcarew
    "Lucky for him (and us), there's good reason to expect a big change in the season ahead." We'll see. I don't see how it can change much too early in the season, as I don't think one of these guys threw anything more than about 4 innings/80 pitches in any of their spring training outings. I don't think a 'big' change is coming. I think a change in approach is appropriate...but the staff isn't going to be averaging 7-inning starts, and of course, the starters need to hold up their end of the bargain in terms of efficiency.
  17. jkcarew
    I'll never get the argument that having a guy stand in front of 99 mph fastballs, swinging the bat, checking his swing, running the bases, slide, etc...is going to protect him from injury. Do you reduce the odds? With Buxton? How much? If management really believed this was significant, wouldn’t they have risked more than 8 PA at DH this spring (with 5 K)? As is, you're taking a guy who has huge value defensively, taking all that value away, and making him a DH where his value will be slightly (probably, but not definitely) above average in that role. What I would expect, is for Buxton to DH against lefties...that way, you're not losing as much OFFENSE in CF with Taylor. Against righties, I would expect him to play mostly CF (occasionally rest, occasionally DH) Instead, it appears we'll aim for mediocrity.
  18. jkcarew
    The fans are happier? Feel more appreciated? More connected to the team? Trust management more? Things like this matter on the margins...and margins are everything when you're running a business. I get that it doesn't mean more wins, and acknowledge the downside. But I would expect an ATTEMPT at more transparency. And no, I don't necessarily think the Twins are unique here. In fact, any team in the NBA would be a worse example.
  19. jkcarew
    But my point was there's no reason to sign him OTHER THAN additional injury worries (Polanco) of which we weren't aware at the time. You're not going to sit any of the guys I mentioned if they're healthy against lefties....that leaves DH (or 1B). Meanwhile, Solano's career OPS against lefties is 711...and he's 35 years old. This can't be part of a 'plan'. If it is...then I maintain it's not a good one.
  20. jkcarew
    I think they need to do a much better job of balancing what you suggest with being a little more transparent with the people who pay their salaries. Or, simply just leave yourself vulnerable to massive and legitimate criticism. Can’t have it both ways.
  21. jkcarew
    Which infielder are you sitting to hit Solano against left-handed pitching? Farmer, Correa, Polanco, or Miranda?
  22. jkcarew
    You’d think. Still, the Solano signing right at the start of camp is a pretty good smoking gun that they were worried from the get go. Zero reason for that signing otherwise. And it’s not like the organization has a sterling track record in communicating with the folks that pay the salaries in this regard.
  23. jkcarew
    But, that’s really not the point. We don’t care whether Joe Mauer made money for the owners, we care whether the contract was worth the value received and the opportunity cost over the life of the contract…in term of how it related to winning games. The commentator obviously doesn’t thing Mauer’s was. And he used it as an example. You might disagree. But, comment was relevant to the topic and not “uninformed”
  24. jkcarew
    Lee this spring in his first-ever look at what amounts to AAA+ pitching… 36 K%; 5 BB%; 474 OPS We might want to tap the brakes on the extension for now. I think we’ll have time.
  25. jkcarew
    IMO, there’s no such thing as a high-schooler with a “good track record of hitting”. Especially for a Midwestern kid. Does it work out sometimes. Certainly. But projecting the hit tool when all they’ve faced is HS competition, with the occasional showcase? More misses than hits, even way up at 5. I’d much rather have a top-end college hitter or top-end college pitcher at #5. Maybe, I’m blinded by the fact that I prefer another high-floor hitter or pitcher arriving quickly…while Buxton and Correa are more likely to be nearer their peek value…rather than the highest ceiling guy arriving significantly later.
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