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jkcarew

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Everything posted by jkcarew

  1. jkcarew
    Two things on Rodriguez… one, yes, let’s keep him healthy two, he is having massive issues with strike outs early in the season…14 K in his first 30 PA. Let’s see him get a handle on that before we anoint him.
  2. jkcarew
    Way more impressive than the first win, IMO. Even the hapless underdog captures lightning in a bottle once in a blue moon. This was grinded out against a good pitcher, good team, on the road, having been punched in the face to start the game. So early…but it’s the kind of game that can get the PLAYERS believing.
  3. jkcarew
    Huge. Not even in the same universe.
  4. jkcarew
    I like the summary. And, yes, some early-season small samples are making some guys look better than they probably are, and some worse than they probably are. Jeffers, Solano, Vasquez...all with unsustainably high BABiP. (Not that there aren't other encouraging things burried in their numbers. There are.) Gordon with a ridiculously GOOD K-rate (very low)...but a horrific BABiP. He's putting almost every ball into play...and almost every one is resulting in an out. Miranda, also with good-ish BB and K rates...but low BABiP.
  5. jkcarew
    I'd have to guess that Balazovic, at least for now, remains a starter? And they're just stretching him out as he didn't get a full spring training? Maybe someone on TD staff can corroborate? But then again, I guess they could accomplish that by having him start the games instead of being the 2nd guy in? I hope they aren't moving him yet. Had command issues. But last year it seemed, almost without exception, that the pitches in the strike-zone were getting destroyed. It's very very early, but pitches in the strike-zone were not getting destroyed...and in several instances, were swings-and-misses. The hit was a ground ball single. Baby steps, and fingers crossed.
  6. jkcarew
    Wow. Buxton plays, Correa plays. We hit, and we pitch. And Kirilloff hits HR in rehab!
  7. jkcarew
    I've been somewhat of a critic of WAR. But in this case, WAR seems an appropriate way of looking at Buxton's value... At current rate (has about the same OPS he posted in 2022), if Buxton were to play all year at DH, his bWAR would come in around 3.5 for the season. That's LESS THAN what he posted in each of the last two seasons when he played about half the season (or less)...but primarily played CF. They're darned if they do, and darned if they don't. And I don't think we can assume that DH'ing will have a huge favorable impact on how many games he can play. Should help in theory. And then we witness yesterday's baserunning debacle.
  8. jkcarew
    Yep. Enlow’s start not as good as his first start was…but still kind of encouraging…only one XBH, lots of K’s. Would love to see him have a strong season, and put himself right back into the 2024 conversation. Also, would have expected a 2nd appearance for the Saints by Balazovic by now?
  9. jkcarew
    I’m with you except for the Buxton base running thing. No accident…it was Buxton being Buxton. Still, not in control of the new training staff.
  10. jkcarew
    And shouldn't it be "The The Bronx Zoo"?
  11. jkcarew
    I'm glad it got him where it got him (not GLAD, but 'glad'). Don't want the brain/skull/temple, and don't want the eye socket. Nothing would have been much better...but glad to hear the current prognosis.
  12. jkcarew
    This was true when the season started. Two weeks in, it's certainly still true. The good news is that we're off to an 8-4 start, with most of the OF stories being negative so far (Larnach the exception). The bad news is, it's probably not sustainable without a couple more of these guys coming through. If Buxton is healthy the ENTIRE year, but only plays DH...his WAR will end up about the same as it was in 2021 and 2022 when he played 60-90 games. If we want a 'bounce-back' in value provided by Buxton...he HAS to play CF at some point. Sitting where we sit now, (with today's base running disaster staring us in the face), it seems a long-shot. Not only will we need at least one of Kepler/Gallo....I'd say we need two of Kepler/Gallo/Kirilloff to have good years. Again, probably something that was, and always will be, true about 2023's roster.
  13. jkcarew
    The legitimate (and now obvious) reasons for pulling Gray aside...it's amazing how when the relief pitcher gets batters out, we (and I include myself here) don't seem that bothered. In a hypothetical situation...let's call it 2022...where a healthy Gray was pulled in that situation, the reliever immediately coughs up the lead, and we have TD fodder...over and over.
  14. jkcarew
    Once again, way too much credit for Solano, IMO. If he had been part of any 'plan' he would have been signed before spring training. It was an act of desperation when they figured out Polanco and Kirilloff were delayed. They've been lucky with it so far. But context on Donny Barrells... after todays nice performance, his OPS is 753...thanks to a 423 BABiP. Don't know how great or sustainable that is...but yes, as of April 12, thank god for Solano. After ST, I posted that I thought the Twins looked like a high-floor team, but not a high-ceiling team. After two weeks, they're the 4th or 5th worse offensive team in majors depending upon what metric you want to use. The question becomes, if this is GOOD lineup depth/flexibility...what would BAD look like? I actually think the ceiling might be higher than I thought. But certainly not because of anything I've seen from the 'starters', or the 'depth' or the 'flexibility' of the lineups. Because of the pitching.
  15. jkcarew
    Good point! The strike-3 to Robert was a huge break. And the bullpen made the break count. Which was nice.
  16. jkcarew
    I'm sure there's a rehab program. There's always going to be justification for sticking with the plan no matter what. And there's frequently going to be circumstances that warrant consideration of some flexibility and adaptability to the plan. It's a balancing act...unless it isn't, and you just go with what you perceive to be the zero-risk approach every time regardless of circumstances. It's early. We'll see if things become more flexible as time goes on. And we'll also see if this maintenance program (on top of the diminished DH role/demands) results in him playing significantly more than 50% of the season.
  17. jkcarew
    I don't know. I don't see him flailing away...his BB/K rates are so far better than last year. He's not getting anything to fall...low BABiP...and the power hasn't shown up yet. I think he'll be fine. Might help mentally, to drop in the order...but hard to do until Polanco, Correa, Buxton, Gallo/Kepler start showing up and playing on a consistent basis.
  18. jkcarew
    Here's what's annoying... OK, you can't play Gallo, and you find out maybe late that Correa can't go. Then, be willing to adapt to deviate from a ridiculously rigid maintenance schedule with your DH. Let him have tomorrow off, or the day after, or the day after that. Is he going to spontaneously combust? Give your team a chance. Especially, when...at least at this point...you have to assume the pitching staff is going to keep you in games. Other than that...another pretty well pitched game overall. If Maeda stays healthy, it looks like he's going to be very solid in a #4/5 slot.
  19. jkcarew
    Yeah...I don't think that Houston is what we can use as the standard for 'top' right now...not until the get Altuve and Brantley back, Bregman warmed up, etc. They're barely in the top half of the league in R/G...for context, the White Sox offense has been a good step better than Houston's so far. But, I'm not sure I care as long as Ryan keeps doing what he's doing. Maybe he'll take that next step, maybe he won't. Signs are encouraging. In the meantime, I have no problem with Ryan's quality as a #3, regardless of the terms we use to describe him. Barring injury and regression, it seems like a decent matchup against playoff-level teams' #3s.
  20. jkcarew
    My issue isn't that it wasn't a very good start. I thought it definitely was. 5 of the 6 innings were perfect, save for an error on a squib. Got through the meat 3 times, 3rd time being maybe the strongest, etc. But, yeah, I don't know if I would have gone with 'dominant'. On the other hand, that was not an elite, top-end lineup without Altuve and Brantley. Good still, but not currently the standard to be used for 'great' or 'top' or 'best'.
  21. jkcarew
    This is absolutely what I would HOPE. You take a ton of PA away from Taylor...replace those PA with a DH that at least has a shot of adding offensive value. And then when you do play Taylor, he has a better chance of having at least neutral overall value. With the Twins do it? I doubt it. Maybe at mid-season point if Buxton's still healthy?...AND, Kirilloff or Lewis or Julien are healthy and ready?...AND it still matters in the standings?
  22. jkcarew
    Even with Buxton's good start, he's currently 8th or 9th on the club in bWAR. I don't know of anyone that was saying he'd have ZERO value at DH. The point is, he'd have MUCH MUCH more value if he was playing CF. The difference between Buxton and an average DH is miniscule compared to the difference between Buxton and an average CF. And in the Twins case, he wouldn't be replacing an average CF...Michael Taylor is among the least valuable CF's in baseball (even accounting for the defense, and completely predictable). Also, I think everyone gets why he's DH'ing. But, it's a frustrating, kind of built-in formula for mediocrity, forced by Buxton's fragility.
  23. jkcarew
    Also, not expecting much. Interesting the nice comments...because the organization's ACTIONS say exactly the opposite. Moving Cavaco to 1B...having really never hit at any level...is buying a lottery ticket that he'll go from poor hitter to very, very good hitter. And in the meantime, they're moving him out of the way of Salas, Miller, and Schobel. FWIW, Cavaco has K'd 6 times in his first 12 PA.
  24. jkcarew
    Sometimes the article may be on point...but the timing is just unfortunate. Hopefully that's the case here.
  25. jkcarew
    Even today, pitching wasn’t the problem. By the end of the days schedule, there will have been 40-50% of the league that scored 5 or more runs today. Playing Buxton at DH (instead of center) presents a big offensive handicap. Easy to ignore if the rest of the lineup was productive…or if you assume it WILL BE productive. Impossible to ignore when it’s not…or you don’t think it will be.
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