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jkcarew

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Everything posted by jkcarew

  1. jkcarew
    Love the Goltz analogies. Back in the day when you could be a 5th round draft pick out of high school (Goltz)...and then choose to go to Moorhead State!! Gotta love it. Both Goltz and Radke had at least one pitch (Radke, two) that was way better than anything Varland has so far. I tend not to be quite as high on Varland as most here. Velocity is NOT his problem. It's command of the fastball, and questionable quality of secondary pitches. He's proved me pretty wrong so far...but I still see a reliever. In the meantime, fun watching him overachieve.
  2. jkcarew
    Tbh...the audio without the video would be perfectly acceptable. Just sayin. But the other way around...
  3. jkcarew
    Or think Kenta Maeda...including 2020 Kenta Maeda. The average would include relievers. So, I'd bet the average MLB starter fastball was less than 93.9mph. And regardless, the article states he's already throwing his fastball 91-94.
  4. jkcarew
    91-94 (as quoted in the article) is very close to current mlb average. Also, Kenta Maeda. Still, I'm not saying he (or anyone) wouldn't benefit from more velo...just that I don't see why that would be a priority yet...and I hope it would not come at the expense of stamina/durability so that he can get a good look as a starter.
  5. jkcarew
    “His fastball sits between 91-94 mph and tops out at 96 mph with some riding life. It’s likely the Twins will work to add some more velocity as he spends more time in the organization” Why is that likely? You’re probably right, but it makes me scratch my head nonetheless. If they want him to have a chance to be a starter that can consistently go at least 5-6 innings, why make squeezing more velocity out of him a priority? He’s 6’-0”…I can’t imagine there’s a ton more velocity projection in a starting scenario. 91+ sound be fine if he commands this and a couple other offerings. And that’s what I would assume they would focus on first? Additional fastball velocity would be a much much lower priority in my mind, at least until the time they were to give up and convert him to full-time reliever.
  6. jkcarew
    Hard to compare IMO. International signings happen at 16 years of age, HS signings at 18, and College signings typically at 21 these days. So the opportunity is different. International guy like Jorge Polanco was getting called up at 20…some of the international superstars well earlier than that. Top HS guys, (extreme outliers like Bryce Harper aside), usually don’t make it any quicker than Mauer or Correa, who made their debuts shortly before turning 21.
  7. jkcarew
    I push back against the idea that the Twins have been “aggressive” or “moved quickly” with Lee. This is what is SUPPOSED to happen when you draft a college player projected to be a top-5 pick. This is his age 22 year…a very typical year for “greats” to break in whether college players or not. College juniors drafted this high…especially position guys…are going to have the expectation of breaking in at age 23 at latest. It can take longer, but there should be no reason to EXPECT it to take longer. The only thing unique here is that he’s a Twin, is healthy, and has so far solidly met those expectations. 😀
  8. jkcarew
    If I had to pick one… the Chicago Guardians
  9. jkcarew
    Interesting that Julien didn’t play anything other than 2B all year last year…no OF, no 3B…nothing but second. Seems like another indication that the club feels he’s very limited defensively. But if he’s going to be a 25-30 HR guy (which seems somewhat realistic based on current trajectory) can he be also considered as a potentially solid defensive first baseman? If I was FO, I would sell high on one of Miranda, Lee, Lewis, Martin, Julien, Gordon, or Polanco in the next 16 months. Honestly, maybe two. Even if one of these is considered the 1B of the future, that makes 7 names for 4-5 roles: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, infield utility, outfield utility. Kirilloff would be an 8th name. I know depth is a good thing and injuries can be counted on. Still, seems like this isn’t maximizing capital. Not urgent yet, can see how Lewis/Kirilloff respond…but I think things look much differently next year at this time.
  10. jkcarew
    Nice article… But there was only one player that appeared in the Twin Cities and broke the color barrier for his club…and it wasn’t Mays or Campanella. In July of 1959, a 25-year-old Pumpsie Green left the Minneapolis Millers (and an 882 OPS) to become the first African American to ever don the uniform of the Boston Red Sox. Little know truth.
  11. jkcarew
    Agree with the assessment on Solano vs Buxton for leading off against lefties. Just hoping we don’t see another 50-pt drop in the OPS in this, what will be his age-35, season. Also, I’m still confused about who we are sitting when we play Solano for a left-handed starter…I guess it would be our “left-handed first baseman”…whoever that is.
  12. jkcarew
    443 PA last year. The only way he gets more PA this year is if the “no other choice” scenario plays out in the outfield forcing him to play against left-handed pitching. I do believe he’s still developing as a hitter. So, might not be a terrible thing. But, in 2022 it was a terrible thing.
  13. jkcarew
    Donny Batty.
  14. jkcarew
    The thing that appears to have flipped is his ability to K right-handed hitters as well as lefties. And my guess is that this wasn’t ‘unlocked’ by the Twins, but was learning from things he picked up experimenting during his two years in independent ball and two years in the minors after that. Good story.
  15. jkcarew
    So how does the rule present a disadvantage to the Twins? Because they can’t put balls in play or hit the ball to the right side of the field when they need too? Because they’re a poor base-running team? Because their bullpen lacks quality in its depth? That’s on the club, not the rule. FWIW…The 7-inning dh games bother me WAY more than the extra-inning rule.
  16. jkcarew
    I fully expect the next move to be the hiring of a former Red’s administrative assistant 12-months removed from carpal tunnel surgery for $8/ hr.
  17. jkcarew
    Agree on all three. Balazovic maybe the most. On the 40-man…spinning his wheels means he’s already blocking anyone that might emerge from helping the team.
  18. jkcarew
    I'm still two simultaneous long-term injuries in the infield away from being glad we have both Solano and Farmer. One would have been enough, wouldn't it? If we traded Gordon for a pitching prospect (or solid bullpen guy) it would make more sense. Not that I particularly want Gordon traded, but I would understand the swap for a shorter-term (and right-handed) solution in exchange for the pitching capital.
  19. jkcarew
    Buxton’s bat Is not that spectacular against right-handed pitching that you want him DH’ing a ton in that situation (assuming he can run). Incredibly diminished value if you do. Similar to Mauer playing 1B and OPS’ing 750…at last the club waited to his age 31 season for that (and no, it didn’t keep Mauer from getting injuries). No thanks to compromising Buxton at age 29. On the other hand, against lefties, it would be the perfect opportunity for some rest, if he wants it. But that doesn’t add up to a ton of games at DH. One underrated factor…with the NL finally going to the DH, there are fewer ‘classic’ (Cruz, Thome, Big Hurt…very good to great aging and/or immobile bats) to go around. Those guys were always somewhat rare obviously, but they were all in the AL. Now MORE teams will have no option but to mix and match.
  20. jkcarew
    “Solano did boast a .309/.380/.568 slash line against southpaws last year” No he didn’t. Try .301/.348/.422 (.770 OPS)…career .711 OPS against lefties. There’s no way this guy was brought on to be insurance at 1B or DH. For context, both Christian Vazquez and Ryan Jeffers have better 2022 and career numbers against lefties than does Solano. “Donny Bats” has to be something his agent came up with. I just have a hard time believing this is the guy you sign if your objective is to ‘bolster’ the lineup against southpaws. I only understand it in the context of Polanco isn’t right, Gordon is being traded and/or Lewis’s 2023 is at serious risk.
  21. jkcarew
    Can't be for Gordon. Not that Gordon is destined for the HOF by any means, but Gordon just had a better age-26 season than Solano just had an age-34 season. It's a one year deal. Something has to be wrong with someone. (Maybe even something off-the-field??). I guess we'll see.
  22. jkcarew
    I’ll respectfully disagree. Last year, only 52% of Buxton’s PA’s even resulted in a ball in-play. The large majority of those were in the air. The Outfielders will continue to shift him. The new rules for the infielders will have minimal impact.
  23. jkcarew
    Come on. Small sample, small sample, small sample. Buxton only hits the ball on the ground by accident. He beats the shift with fly balls and deep drives. I predict a MUCH more muted impact regarding the shift rules. And Buxton will fit right into that category. He’s not going to start trying to hit the ball on the ground…his GB rate is low and headed lower every year, and the FB rate is high and headed higher every year. When he accidentally hits the ball on the ground…and it’s accidentally up the middle…he’ll be more likely to get a single. Won’t happen nearly of frequently as people think it will. The pull side fielder will play in the hole and these guys aren’t going to change their swings to try and hit line drives up the middle. They’re not. Lefties like Kepler have a better chance to see something significant IF the second basemen play significantly shallower. But I’m not expecting much. Still, the typical lefty can now do nothing but pull and launch, striking out at ever increasing rates in the effort…all while raising his BA from 220 to 225. This rule has ‘law of unintended consequences’ written all over it.
  24. jkcarew
    No thank you to both Larnach and Kepler in the lineup against lefties.
  25. jkcarew
    “Wouldn't (it) be refreshing to have a few players actually beat their estimated return timelines for a change?” Not if it’s primarily achieved by simply lowering the bar of expectations. And I can’t help but fear while reading this article that that will be the modus operandi.
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