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jkcarew

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Everything posted by jkcarew

  1. jkcarew
    As far as 2023 is concerned, there is no depth at catcher. Zero. Nada. If Vasquez or Jeffers get hurt, we’re almost guaranteed to give significant innings of negative WAR at the position. Even if they’re healthy all year, there’s a significant chance this could be the case. It’s such an immense organizational black hole, that the large black hole called first base easily fits inside it.
  2. jkcarew
    Couldn’t agree more. It’s a clown show of panic and desperation. The logic…let’s reward a league full of players who hit 220 because of their complete and total commitment to swings optimized for power…let’s let them continue with that one tool in the toolbox approach, but artificially lift their batting averages to 230, in the name of a couple of extra baserunners 95% of whom won’t even think of attempting to run. It’s interesting to note that all these rule changes go in this year, and what does Nick Gordon show up talking about for 2023? Thin, fast, slap-hitting Nick Gordon…does he show up taking about putting more balls in play or being more aggressive on the base baths? No. He shows up announcing to the world that he’s stronger and going to hit more home runs. These shift and base running rules are not going to change anything…in fact they’ll be counterproductive…as long as number 9 hitters are developed to, and capable of, hitting 20+ homeruns a year. They’re just not.
  3. jkcarew
    Two reasons to consider it… 1, you think the starters AS A MATTER OF COURSE need more than 4 days of rest between starts. On the face of it, this seems ridiculous given the modern formula for innings/pitches per start. 2. you think the number 6 guy is very nearly as good as your number 1/2 guys. No matter how ‘great’ the depth, this would be a damning statement on how management views the top of the rotation, IMO. Which leads me to…if I was a 1/2 guy, I’d be in the managers office saying something to the effect of…‘no bleeping way!’
  4. jkcarew
    “(Kirilloff) may be a Gold Glove-caliber first baseman, but it isn’t a position that can afford to have nothing come from the bat.” Agree. But, are people really that high on him defensively at 1B? He’s made less than 100 appearances there over 7 years in pro ball, so not much of a sample size. If true, it could, at least slightly, or at least in the relative near term, lower the bar a bit on what he needs to produce offensively.
  5. jkcarew
    If putting Lewis in CF caused his injury, can’t we just ask Buxton to avoid getting on base…you know, to be safe? I mean, we have it pretty narrowed down…Lewis get hurts when he runs, Buxton when he slides, and Kirilloff when he swings. Should be simple to eliminate. Or… …once they get healthy…and that means “as healthy as they’re going to get”…let them play the —— game. In Buxton’s case, he has WAY more value as a regular CF as opposed to a primary DH. It’s like having two separate players with drastically different value, and you’re choosing to play the guy with inferior value so the one with superior value won’t get hurt…except the guy with the superior value can still get hurt. It’s a self-fulfilling formula for mediocrity. And dumb.
  6. jkcarew
    The 2-run homer will continue to dwarf the stolen base in terms of significance/value for the foreseeable future. This type of analysis on the margins of stats that affect base running suggests it’s a delicate balance. It’s not. It’s not close. It hasn’t been close since 1900-1920…and is in fact the furthest thing from close that it’s been in the history of the game. Tweaking on the margins can make things slightly more interesting, but nothing more than that. Until such time that they make the baseball a beanbag or a new generation of much-larger ballparks are built, this isn’t going to fundamentally change. If Jeffers mashes occasionally (and frequently vs lefties)…he has value and is in the majors. If he doesn’t, he doesn’t, and he’s not. Nothing changes.
  7. jkcarew
    This is like a father’s three teenage daughters confronting him and saying…good news, Dad, we’re “mostly not pregnant”. Kirilloff’s news is not cause for concern, it’s cause for panic. This is EXACTLY the way this organization has communicated bad injury news in the past. (Pioneer Press mentioning that Kirilloff has been taking himself out of schedule hitting activities.,,pretty significant difference between that and what is implied in this article.) Also, you fail to mention if Gordon has returned to betting for or against the club. If the latter, I would consider that “mostly bad news”.
  8. jkcarew
    I feel like you need to acknowledge that Franklin…while he may somehow have a cosmic connection to Bill James…was never the POTUS.
  9. jkcarew
    Agreed. And yes, we’ll see what the next couple of seasons bring. FWIW…Nowlin is almost a full two years ahead of Ryan in terms of level obtained by age. Ryan was a barely average college pitcher until his age 22 season. Nowlin was 21 last year. Probably fair to say Nowlin’s ceiling is at least that of Ryan’s. Probably higher. A long way to go, and the command issue’s are often not overcome. Fingers crossed.
  10. jkcarew
    Honestly…it’s probably a couple of guys ‘married’ by the fact that they can both throw 60+ pitches when asked, are on the 40-man, preferably but not necessarily with options, and fit at the bottom of a bullpen. It’s really a ‘mop up’ role in modern game, IMO. If the game is in the balance, you’re going to mix and match with the unprecedented number of arms in active bullpens (and leveraging the options scam on a day to day basis). On the other hand, If the game is out of hand…or you’ve somehow managed to burn up everybody despite all the arms and gaming of options…then, you have a guy wear it for the team. That’s the modern ‘long’ guy, (even more so, given additional restrictions on scenarios where Nick Gordon can bail you out). I could see Dobnak being one…but not until a pitcher goes on the 60-day. I imagine if they did this a line would be drawn somewhere below the guys that they absolutely want to be getting regular starts throughout 2023 for development (i.e., Varland, Headrick). Plenty to pick from.
  11. jkcarew
    "Solano has been a consistently solid hitter...(and) a line drive machine..." Honestly, I feel like I'm in the twilight zone reading writers on this site regarding Solano. My word, he was signed for $2M after camp started. He's a 92 OPS+ career hitter. He's 35. Last year, which was one of his recent 'outstanding' seasons, he was at 97. I have a hard time believing his signing has much of anything to do with first base or DH...other than break-glass in-game scenarios. I think if Kirilloff is out, he's still not anything too close to part of a 1B/DH "plan".
  12. jkcarew
    Forgot to compare the managers. It's a miss-match. Now, admittedly, I can't tell you exactly what a miss-match in managers adds up to over the coarse of 162 games. But it's something.
  13. jkcarew
    If nothing else, I like that the pairing don't completely mirror each other's strengths and weaknesses like last year. A little more opportunity to mix and match depending upon the situation.
  14. jkcarew
    The biggest blow to Celestino's immediate future with the club was the signing of Taylor. These two are completely redundant (at least at this point in Celestino's development). You're not going to play both...just no way to justify that from an offensive standpoint. The best thing that can happen for Celestino in 2023 is for him to improve the hit tool in AAA. If he can, even a little bit, he has a decent chance of being back in that role in 2024.
  15. jkcarew
    Also, tip-of-the-hat to Pagan who seems like one of the only guys this spring that showed up already in mid-season form. Remains a lock as long as those photos of Rocco are in a safe place.
  16. jkcarew
    I'm with Nick...and it continues to surprise me on the number who have drank the cool-aid on Solano and his ability to "mash" left-handed pitching. Solano's carrer OPS against lefties is 711. 711. It's higher in small samples in the past couple of years...hitting in the bandbox that is Great American and with an unsustainably high BABiP. Farmer is significantly better than Solano against lefties...but for context, he's slightly below Kyle Garlick in career OPS against lefties...and again having played basically half his career in Great American. Useful, but I don't know if I'd call it 'mashing' or 'killing' left-handed pitching. Farmer was the choice, love the defensive flexibility, but still don't get both he and Solano. I'd so rather have Lee brought up the instance there's a long-term injury on the infield to play every day. Meanwhile, I assume some of these middling veterans are gone the instant this team is out of the race (hoping that doesn't happen, but if/when it does).
  17. jkcarew
    We're dreaming to think that Buxton is going to appear in 85% of Twins games. Someone needs to make a good argument why this year would be the year before I can move to such an assumption. But, ok, I'll play along.... The 15% he sits need to be against right-handed starters only (if he's 'healthy' there should be zero exceptions here.) The 15% that he's the DH need to be against left-handed starters (rare exceptions)...not only because he isn't great against righties...but because the guy who is most likely to enter the lineup because of his move to DH is Taylor...of whom, you want to maximize his AB's against lefties. In the games he's sitting, HE AND ROCKO, need to be willing to pinch-hit him late...particularly against lefties...if/when the situation screams for it and a W is to be had. If these things came to fruition in 2023 there's no doubt it would be a good outcome for the Twins. Much better than my current assumption of Buxton's role in 2023.
  18. jkcarew
    His rookie year was similar to Machado's, but you can't project age 24 anywhere near how you can project 20. And Machado is great at defense, and Miranda is the opposite of great, so you can't compare them that way. So, as you acknowledged, unfair. IMO, narrative/story here is much more about his future with the club. Regardless of the rookie year, he has to take another significant step offensively to have unique value as a first-baseman. Still, his floor seems good enough to be a contributor on a true contender, but maybe not a big needle-mover. He might not have a ton of time to get nearer the ceiling based on the quality and quantity coming up behind him (though, I suppose Kirilloff's health could change that outlook).
  19. jkcarew
    Love the Goltz analogies. Back in the day when you could be a 5th round draft pick out of high school (Goltz)...and then choose to go to Moorhead State!! Gotta love it. Both Goltz and Radke had at least one pitch (Radke, two) that was way better than anything Varland has so far. I tend not to be quite as high on Varland as most here. Velocity is NOT his problem. It's command of the fastball, and questionable quality of secondary pitches. He's proved me pretty wrong so far...but I still see a reliever. In the meantime, fun watching him overachieve.
  20. jkcarew
    Tbh...the audio without the video would be perfectly acceptable. Just sayin. But the other way around...
  21. jkcarew
    Or think Kenta Maeda...including 2020 Kenta Maeda. The average would include relievers. So, I'd bet the average MLB starter fastball was less than 93.9mph. And regardless, the article states he's already throwing his fastball 91-94.
  22. jkcarew
    91-94 (as quoted in the article) is very close to current mlb average. Also, Kenta Maeda. Still, I'm not saying he (or anyone) wouldn't benefit from more velo...just that I don't see why that would be a priority yet...and I hope it would not come at the expense of stamina/durability so that he can get a good look as a starter.
  23. jkcarew
    “His fastball sits between 91-94 mph and tops out at 96 mph with some riding life. It’s likely the Twins will work to add some more velocity as he spends more time in the organization” Why is that likely? You’re probably right, but it makes me scratch my head nonetheless. If they want him to have a chance to be a starter that can consistently go at least 5-6 innings, why make squeezing more velocity out of him a priority? He’s 6’-0”…I can’t imagine there’s a ton more velocity projection in a starting scenario. 91+ sound be fine if he commands this and a couple other offerings. And that’s what I would assume they would focus on first? Additional fastball velocity would be a much much lower priority in my mind, at least until the time they were to give up and convert him to full-time reliever.
  24. jkcarew
    Hard to compare IMO. International signings happen at 16 years of age, HS signings at 18, and College signings typically at 21 these days. So the opportunity is different. International guy like Jorge Polanco was getting called up at 20…some of the international superstars well earlier than that. Top HS guys, (extreme outliers like Bryce Harper aside), usually don’t make it any quicker than Mauer or Correa, who made their debuts shortly before turning 21.
  25. jkcarew
    I push back against the idea that the Twins have been “aggressive” or “moved quickly” with Lee. This is what is SUPPOSED to happen when you draft a college player projected to be a top-5 pick. This is his age 22 year…a very typical year for “greats” to break in whether college players or not. College juniors drafted this high…especially position guys…are going to have the expectation of breaking in at age 23 at latest. It can take longer, but there should be no reason to EXPECT it to take longer. The only thing unique here is that he’s a Twin, is healthy, and has so far solidly met those expectations. 😀
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