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jkcarew

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Everything posted by jkcarew

  1. jkcarew
    If the plan isn’t working…and repeatedly doesn’t work…try a different plan.
  2. jkcarew
    I nominate Cedar Rapids’ entire infield….Salas, Miller, Schobel, Cavaco.
  3. jkcarew
    Duran not pitching much this month is the problem. Rocco was going to pitch him today no matter what…he needs the work. So…in this series Duran pitched once overall…and zero times in leverage. Meanwhile, there were huge leverage opportunities late yesterday where he DIDN’T pitch so that he could be ready for a save opportunity…that didn’t come yesterday…and didn’t come today.
  4. jkcarew
    And……..Rocco basically ends up HAVING to pitch Duran in low leverage. If I was someone who said ‘I told you so’, here is where I would say ‘I told you so’. But I’m not someone who says ‘I told you so’,…I mean, rarely…so I’m not going to say I told you so.
  5. jkcarew
    Ryan had NOTHING…what, zero K’s first two times through the lineup…a ton of hits. He had to know he had nothing, and he still challenged hitters, kept the ball in the park, and trusted that more balls would be caught by someone behind him, than not. Manages to get through 5 with 100+ pitches (because he was giving up hits and couldn’t finish, not because he was nibbling…big difference, IMO.) And gives up 1 run. Sigh. I love you, Joe Ryan.
  6. jkcarew
    How many innings is that? Asking for a depressed friend.
  7. jkcarew
    Other than catastrophic offensive struggles and knee issues... He's 1000% a regular in the lineup from day one...I can't think of a decent argument where he wouldn't be. He's a right handed bat. He'll play practically any position on the field. He figures to be good on the bases. He's (practically) 24 years old and a former number 1 draft pick, the team is offensively challenged as is, I could go on. There's no good reason not to be playing him (nearly) every day all around the field. Against righties, at a minimum, he should be taking at-bats from Solano and MAT, and against lefties from any left-handed bat Rocco want's to sit on a given day. And then resting Correa. This is neither the quality of club, nor is Lewis in the typical situation...where the young guy needs to "prove himself" to crack the lineup. If he struggles, then you're failing with a 24 year old with a ton of potential, instead of the guys you're failing with now.
  8. jkcarew
    I’m sure at this point Rocco would love to have Arraez back. He could platoon him with Solano.
  9. jkcarew
    Agreed. But if I were to TRY…I wouldn’t do it by hiding my good guy 😉
  10. jkcarew
    The problem with the unwillingness to move him up is that you open yourself to a couple of risks… 1) you end up without a save opportunity and pitch him in low leverage…or… 2) you end up without a save situation and don’t pitch him at all And that’s what’s been happening…Duran has fewer innings and fewer batters faced than (more than) half the bullpen. Rocco has pitched his best pitcher less than his other pitchers…all while the club has been stacking up losses. He wants to stick with his plans/wishes/hopes regardless of how events actually unfold. It’s a pattern. Having said all that, the offense is the main problem.
  11. jkcarew
    This. The problem with Buxton this year is that the OBP is way too high, taking too many walks. Creates unnecessary risks on the base paths. When we got the discount signing Buxton, it wasn’t a discount.
  12. jkcarew
    Davis played over 120 games in a season 8 times in his career, including 5 consecutive years ages 24-28…all while playing the OF, primarily CF. He was Lou Gehrig compared to Buxton, who did this once, and never was really even close other than that…apparently ever.
  13. jkcarew
    Since Ron Guidry won it in 1978, a Yankees pitcher has won it one time. Twins pitchers have three since then. I think they’ve got it wrong a few times, but don’t see any east coast bias (or west coast bias) for this award in resent history.
  14. jkcarew
    I’d rather have 3 legitimately good starters than one Cy Young guy and little else. In the ‘real’ post season, it’s about how you match up at 1, 2, and 3. Yes, being at a real disadvantage at the no. 1 matchup can be deflating. But that can be overcome if matchups 2 and 3 are even or better….all the more realistically if the discrepancy at no. 1 isn’t dramatic. I think this is what…at least at the quarter pole…SEEMS like a somewhat realistic situation for the Twins in 2023. Even with a faulty offense, you have a puncher’s chance if the starter is keeping you in the game. I don’t think that’s been a realistic playoff scenario for the Twins in a long, long time. Now, if the bats and the bullpen will allow us to get there.
  15. jkcarew
    Relievers who have faced more batters than Duran this season… Lopez, Jax, Pagan, Moran, Alcala Sometime you need to use your number 1 leverage guy in the 7th or 8th inning.
  16. jkcarew
    The young batters are really struggling at Cedar Rapids. The non-pitchers in Cedar Rapids average a year YOUNGER than those at Fort Myers. Unusual? It shows in the hitting stats….despite the notoriously tough hitting conditions in the GCL.
  17. jkcarew
    Rodriguez has been pretty much overmatched…pretty badly, at Cedar Rapids. Not that that really means anything yet, other than make we wonder how could he have possibly moved up. There can’t be that many other guys K’ing at a 50% clip. Graduations?
  18. jkcarew
    Kingman’s best 3 years we’re in Wrigley…he barely had anything close to a good year outside of wrigley…maybe one. He wouldn’t be in the hall of fame in ANY era.
  19. jkcarew
    Yeah. Not much of a comparison really…even while just looking at batting. Kingman had one big year…only 2 years where his OPS was over 850…and both in parks very conducive to HR. Crew had a relatively long ramp up (injuries and also had two seasons before they lowered the mound in 1969)…and then a career tale, as well. He had 6 consecutive years where he averaged 900 OPS, without one being as low as 850.
  20. jkcarew
    No. But in 1979, the Angels would have been better off with Kingman, rather than Carew. Carew batted 318, that year. Kingman 288.
  21. jkcarew
    Again, not really. Not for many big power guys. Aaron Judge batted 311 last year…he struck out 175 times. A lot of power hitters through the years have sustained BA above average with high K%. Why? Because when they do make contact, they hit the ball much harder than average…result, not just HRs, but also sustainably high BABiP.
  22. jkcarew
    A batting average between 200 and 300 means nothing without more data, IMO. I’d say significantly below 200, it’s more and more likely that it says “bad”. Likewise, once you get past, say 325…it’s very likely you’re at least “good” even with very little power or walks. (Currently a 363 hitter that hits all singles and never walks is an average hitter in terms of run production.)
  23. jkcarew
    It’s a weird place to be in when both catchers swing right-handed and the better defensive catcher is the weaker hitter. I don’t know exactly where the threshold is for Vazquez’s offense before the defensive advantage is negated. I do know that I’d at least try to start Jeffers against all lefties (didn’t start against Smyly)…just based on the HR/XBH potential that presents.
  24. jkcarew
    Right? Poor Joey and his 199 BA. If he keeps playing like this, he’ll be lucky to get a contract worth more than $60M this off-season.😉
  25. jkcarew
    Who are these ‘pretty decent’ platoon bats of which you speak? Solano with his career OPS against lefties of 707 (worse this year)? Or Castro and his 699 (also worse this year)? But, yes…if the plan is to have Kirilloff play 75% of games (or whatever) because the wrist can’t handle more…that’s different. Then, might as well try to line those days up with lefty starters as much as possible.
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