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jkcarew

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Everything posted by jkcarew

  1. jkcarew
    Means nothing more to me than going up 1-0 in a best-of-three series..(which is big enough deal without the irrelevant baggage). Now, for the real objective…let’s win the series. I think the Twins are the better team right now.
  2. jkcarew
    The streak is only remarkable if you think the Twins had anything close to a 50% chance of winning most of the games. They didn’t. Go back and look at the team…and pitching matchups. Maybe had a 45-ish percent chance in maybe 3 games. The rest were complete and utter mismatches. Yes, you’d still figure to get a win or two along the way, but who cares…you’re losing all but the earliest of these series 10 out of 10 times. Got a better chance this year.
  3. jkcarew
    During the streak, they were clearly the inferior team. Every time, and every single pitching matchup. This time they won’t be…at least not by much. I expect competitive results. Disclaimer is if Lewis can’t play at least DH.
  4. jkcarew
    Hopefully they’ll be Twins fans. I’ve been to Blue Jay’s series where there were more fans from Toronto, Thunder Bay, and Winnipeg in the stands than folks from Minnesota. We’ll see.
  5. jkcarew
    A large part of that was Lewis making 5 plate appearances in most of the games.
  6. jkcarew
    Yeah…you’re probably right. Weakens the infield defense at two positions though. Farmer much better at 3rd than Polanco, IMO.
  7. jkcarew
    That would be VERY bad news. It puts Lewis or Julien on the bench for every game. Not good.
  8. jkcarew
    Baseball was meant to be played in daylight. Despite the fact that modern ballpark lighting may make that moot, I LOVE afternoon games. I don’t necessarily need to watch a playoff W to enjoy it immensely. Just win, baby.
  9. jkcarew
    I agree that this could be a real benefit…of course it’s still on the players to capitalize on it. This was in play in ‘87 in the Tiger’s series, when they went down to the wire with Toronto (no wild card then). Saw their number one and two…but they seemed taxed, Alexander more than Morris, but Morris couldn’t dominate and the Twins won his lone start. I think the club is positioned much better than at any other time during the streak. I expect them to compete no matter which opponent.
  10. jkcarew
    Yep..I look at it as adjustments. It’s hard to make adjustments at the mlb level. All player have to do it though…it’s just that guys with K issues usually have to make ‘bigger’ ones to stick, I agree. I do wonder sometimes if swing-and-miss rates would be more predictive. SOME guys with high K rates, have the ‘patient’ approach and take a lot of strikes…don’t really whiff a ton and can actually control the K zone. SOME low K guys whiff plenty, but everything happens earlier in the count. That’s why (in lieu of whiff rate,) I’ll look at BB/K rate. And yes, Cossetti’s is way better, albeit at an ‘easier’ age-to-level than Severino has experienced.
  11. jkcarew
    Beware the high K rates…but also beware the low BB rates. Miranda and Kirilloff fell into the later category. It’s tough to maintain a high BABiP in the majors, especially when you are hitting pitcher’s pitches. Those guys fail too…maybe not as spectacularly as the K guys when the adjustments can’t be made.
  12. jkcarew
    The top-ish hitting prospects had a strong overall year. I’d have at least a couple of the HM mention guys ahead of Lee in terms of their offensive output this season. Maybe some ranking bias there. Not that Lee disappointed…seems right on track.
  13. jkcarew
    Severino makes fewer outs than Miranda. He has a materially higher OBP than Miranda in the minors…because along with the way fewer K’s, Miranda gets way fewer BB’s.
  14. jkcarew
    Never was going to happen.
  15. jkcarew
    It was always going to be a short start for Lopez. Not going to have anyone max out on a long and/or stressful start with next appearance in playoffs. Means nothing.
  16. jkcarew
    @Brock Beauchamp Dameury Pena
  17. jkcarew
    Cossetti already in
  18. jkcarew
    @Brock Beauchamp Dameury Pena, Andrew Cossetti
  19. jkcarew
    Did my own research. 2nd-half K’s… Batters: 684 (10.5 per game) Pitchers: 607 (9.3 per game) Honestly, we’re golden if that discrepancy hold up…or even almost holds up, in the playoffs.
  20. jkcarew
    It’s always matchups in the playoffs. It’s hard/impossible to win with big discrepancies…if the opponent K’s 6 times and you are K’ing 14 times. As long as it’s not significantly one-sided, I think the Twins are fine. And that’s a reasonable expectation given the pitching and the second half offensive showing. We’ll see. I’d like to know how many times the Twins batters K’d fewer (or same) times than the opposition in the second half? Close to 50%? Or what the aggregate difference was?
  21. jkcarew
    Sounds like the Astros have inflicted some emotional and psychological scars on our community. But they’ve been just ‘good’, not great, all season, and have been DREADFUL down the stretch. I’m not backing away from a team that just got swept at HOME by the Royals…in games they NEEDED to win. I don’t know what to predict…but for the first time since the streak began, they’re actually close, if not on par with the opposition they’ll see in the first round. This is a prerequisite for success, IMO…despite the common refrain of “anything can happen”. It’s not about the regular season records. It’s about who you have, how they’ve been playing, and pitching match-ups. I like the Twins to do SOMETHING here, more than I liked them with 100 wins in 2019…much more, because of the above.
  22. jkcarew
    Candidates, yes. Not necessarily likely in some cases. I mean…both Andrew Stevenson and Luplow are on the active roster currently. IL games can be played as well. I’m sure if they think Buxton is ‘ready’ (whatever that means), they won’t spend any time gnashing their teeth over the likes of Luplow or Stevenson.
  23. jkcarew
    That’s why I said IF THEY ARE PLANNING ON HAVING ANY OF THEM ON THE ROSTER… If they want Stewart, then he should pitch some with the Twins…if they want Buxton, he should be getting real PA’s.
  24. jkcarew
    I would hope if they are planning on any of those guys being on the roster for the opening series, that they would be rehabbing by playing games with the Twins. No reason not to.
  25. jkcarew
    It had to be a little ugly, right? It just had to be…it’s been that type of year in the ALC.
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