jkcarew

Zero chance. But if it DID happen, I’d trade Kiriloff the day after (or the evening of) his first good game of the season. I do find it amusing that some here consider him so overrated. I trust it’s not folks who, at the same time, think Buxton is a superstar “when healthy”. Bellinger is a much better hitter than Buxton, he has a better track record of health, he is nearly 2 years younger than Buxton, and he…more than likely…will provide MORE defensive value than Buxton going forward. If you truly had a chance to sign Bellinger on a shorter-term deal…and PAYROLL was the dealbreaker, you’d certainly entertain trading several veterans…including Buxton…for a young controllable arm and or right-handed hitting OF prospect.

It’s fairly rare that a club can compete at a very high level consistently through the duration of a roster transition…or at least a transition of the roster core and leadership. For it to happen, multiple young guys need to exhibit near linear development…no regression, no ‘sophomore slumps’. And/or key prospects need to hit the MLB ground running. Still, with health and a bounce-back year from Correa, the 2024 Twins can get close to 91 wins, I think. The schedules are still unbalanced…and the AL Central is the gift that keeps on giving.

This. One was legendarily great in the postseason, the other quite ordinary in the limited chances he got. Probably gets in eventually. It may take some time. I think any concerted effort needs to be timed correctly. The plan needs to be strategically executed when unusually ‘weak’ new eligibility pools happen.

We’ll complain they chose revenue over ‘availability’, but at the same time, we’ll complain that payroll is too low. Was it the best decision long-term? I don’t know. Any decision that leads to more winning and less losing is the best short, medium and long-term decision. Beyond that, agree that anything to get kids (and young adults) hooked would really help. I don’t think the dilemma is getting better anytime soon for all but a handful of franchises. Cable was the cash cow, and it’s dying. And the streaming businesses aren’t breaking their banks to get baseball rights the way the cable services did.

No. But based on prognostications…some day, Southern Miss WILL have a Hall Hall.

“Minnesota has grown a reputation for successfully developing mid- to late-round college arms in recent seasons…” Let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves here. The 2024 starting rotation is shaping up as 4 guys acquired in trades…and Bailey Ober. I don’t think advancing guys (Festa, etc) through the minors entitles declaration of ‘successful development’. That’s not the objective, nor is the objective to simply reach the majors (Varland). I’d give you ‘promising’ with the likes of these two and others, but successful is premature, IMO.

Even the desperate and destitute Royals waited until Witt had played 308 games. It’s a question that doesn’t yet need to be asked. One, two, years from now…doesn’t matter…Lewis and his advisors should have plenty incentive to extend at moderate terms (relative to performance) given his injury history.

Jim Fregosi had received MVP votes for 8 consecutive seasons heading into his age 29 season, so… Is it just me, or does the computer seem to dislike Wallner…and HATE Jeffers?? I get that Jeffers’ BABiP spiked a bit last year…but he’s going to be as valuable offensively as Castro?

Oops

I’m pretty sure the Twins were performing bone tests to mitigate this risk at least going back as far as Sano’s signing. He signed at 16. I think his results were reported as something like 16-17 or 16-18 (a range). Like all technology, I assume the test are more accurate now than then. Sad that it’s come to this, but when you look at the circumstances of most of these families, and then look at the money involved….just an overwhelming incentive for misrepresentation. And, in many cases they are ADVISED to misrepresent.

I have no idea how this works these days. In previous years a team would have to wait for (or help) a player get out of Cuba. Now a Cuban player can sign, leave, and join an MLB-affiliated minor league team whenever?

290 innings from proven veterans gone between Maeda and Gray. One took second in CY voting, the other provided 105 innings with ERA and FIP better than league average. Can Ryan add another 20 innings to his season load and at the same time cut down on his high HR allowed rate? Can Ober add another 20 innings and maintain his favorable results? Can Chris Paddack provide 120-140 effective(ish) innings? Does DeSlanfani work out even a little/kinda? Can Varland be better (than 2023’s 5+ FIP) when called upon? He gave up the long ball at a higher rate than even Ryan. Will injuries require the club to go deeper than this for significant innings? Heavy lift, IMO. If the club finishes 2024 in the top 4 in AL ERA like they did in 2023, it seems like that would require the bullpen to be better than it was in 2023…and probably throw more innings?

Fools gold to even hope regarding Buxton’s health. Having said that, if most of the other things mentioned in this thread happen, there’s a chance, regardless of Buxton. Time to expect others to lead this team. I remain confident in a bounce back for Correa in the absence of serious injury. Every under-the-covers 2023 number that exists says he was ridiculously unlucky last season.

I’m not fully educated regarding Raya’s raw stuff (across three pitches) as it would compare to Festa’s. But for me it would need to be significantly better than Festa’s for me to rank Raya higher as a prospect than Festa. Festa has the much better stature/frame for starting, and he’s much closer. Raya has a less-than-ideal frame and to this point, there’s no actual evidence that Raya can handle being a starter except for some opinions. Maybe this year we start getting more data on Raya working more consistently through 4+ innings, etc.

But the good news…come to think of it… We should be able to trade him even up for today’s equivalent of 27-year old Steve Carlton!

I seriously doubt DeSclafani is going to hit anything close to 6 home runs this year.

Weird to think that Lewis is SIX YEARS OLDER than Jenkins.

Yeah…I like that. Leading bWAR player on the team that beat us in the playoffs last year. I’d rather not be talking about Mantle, Trout, Harper. If Jenkins is the most gifted kid to come in the past decade, we would still have a 95% chance of disappointment if that’s our current bar for him. Does he have a higher ceiling than Tucker? Seems like it at this early stage. But I’d take the Kyle Tucker comp and no major injuries…in a heartbeat.

I think the point with Lee's numbers from the right side is that 1) they were really bad as he faced the higher-level pitchers in AA and AAA in 2023....and 2) you don't want him on the big club failing against lefties...and 3) I don't think you want him on the big club platooning, not yet anyway. Give him a chance to make some adjustment in St. Paul. The right-side numbers are downplayed in the article. They were really bad. Power way less than from the left side...and K/BB ratio spectacularly worse than from the left side...to the point where, if the trend continues, you'd definitely have to question why he bothers switch-hitting. Moreover, if you youtube him, tell me that that bat doesn't seem slower from the right-hand side. (Note that the 'good' right-side results in 2022 included 24 total PA, and mostly single-A pitching.) I'm not suggesting the wait needs to be a couple of years...or even one year. But there should be at least a little more work (and data) so you know how the issue is trending and have a better handle on how he should be used when you bring him up. Also, agree that this team is probably better (particularly, after Lee comes up) if Lewis is in the outfield. (And also if Jeffers is somehow getting more AB's) As for 'positional certainty'....I'm not buying even 5% of that. Harmon Killebrew had about 500 career home-runs...switching back and forth between 1st, 3rd, and LF, from year to year and game to game...before 'positional certainty' set in. Pete Rose, Ben Zobrist…and Lewis better suited athletically than those. Unless of course, if somehow deemed detrimental to his health by he, his agent, and/or the club. Just hit, Royce.

The problem is we know Buxton won’t ‘play more than not’ in CF. And MAT isn’t necessarily someone you want playing 80+ games and getting 250+ PA against right-handed pitching. He’d be an easy choice if the role really was bench/late-defense and spot starts against LH pitching. But the Twins should be asking themselves who can we accept starting 80+ games in CF. Is MAT a better overall option than Castro and/or Martin in that scenario? Tough call. And fwiw, other than Bellinger, I’m not sure any of the other FA options are obviously better either. My guess is they go MAT…or stick in house. But have no idea which.

I like it…2 lefties in the Bullpen (at least) for any series, plus a couple in AAA with MLB experience and options remaining. Gordon is useful for many clubs. It’s just that ours has guys like Castro, Martin, Lee, etc who figure to be useful (at the least) as well…and can hit right handed. Does anyone know the story behind Okert not playing in 2020? I assume he was simply in the minors that year…and no minor league games were played. Or was it injury?

So, we’re RE-evaluating the trade before spring training?? 😉 FWIW, my opinion is that it would have been managerial malpractice to NOT trade at least one second baseman…Polanco, Lee, Julien, Gordon, Martin…to try to mitigate bigger weaknesses in the roster. Take your pick. They chose the oldest, the one with recent availability issues, and probably (Lee?) the one that returned the most. Meanwhile, Polanco’s 162-game bWAR pace last season was less than 0.2 better than Julien’s…with an MLB top-50 prospect waiting in the wings. We’ll see what happens.

I’m thinking some payroll will be added still before the season starts. Regardless, the ‘ownership is unnecessarily cheap’ discussions get old, at least for me. Always an argument for spending more from a fans perspective, always. And it’s not like there’s a pattern here of misalignment between revenue and payroll relative to the league. So, IMO, more interested in HOW (roster construction) the FO spends the payroll, regardless of the rationale for the final number. Plenty to pick apart there.

Wow. Where to begin. Through age 29, Beltre had played about 1550 games. Buxton, 670. Beltre played another nearly 1400 games after age 30. Can Buxton improve on his career 106 OPS+ in his 30’s? Yes. It’s not a high bar. But I’d be careful assuming that the mediocre offensive results to date are 100%..or even mostly…attributable to playing with injuries. He’s never been a guy who controls the zone, and the result has been wildly inconsistent results regardless of injury status. Any offensive improvement will come with significantly less defensive value than he provided in his 20’s….and it will come across…what?….MAYBE 600 games?? He’s averaged 73 games per season when playing the field. Played 85 games last season as a full time DH. I’d be absolutely thrilled with 15-20 WAR over the last 5 years of his current contract. Yet, 20 is pretty unlikely…and it wouldn’t get him near the HALL…fringe shot at Twins HOF, maybe.

Regarding the ALC…the more things change…the more they stay the same.