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twins_89

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Everything posted by twins_89

  1. twins_89
    Through July (101 games) last season Correa had a .780 OPS and a negative WPA. To me that's not a particularly great performance.
  2. twins_89
    Last season Correa wasn't all that great for the first 100 or so games. I remember it seemed like a real possibility that he would pick up his player option due to his subpar performance. I'm a bit concerned that we are seeing a similar trend this season.
  3. twins_89
    My guess is that Winder ends up in the bullpen for the same reason that Duran ended up there. When a guy has repeated injury problems over multiple seasons it makes sense to see if a move to the bullpen can keep him off the IL.
  4. twins_89
    I'll be surprised if he ever ends up starting games for the Twins. If he is in the rotation this season it likely means that things have gone off the rails for a number of the starters that are currently ahead of him (Ober, Winder, SWR, Varland, and Balazovic). My expectation is that he will get called up as a multi-inning reliever who will have a chance to earn higher leverage opportunities if he performs well.
  5. twins_89
    It's rare for players who have been in an organization for multiple seasons without showing anything (like Cavaco and Sabato) to suddenly break out. Of the three, Balazovic is the only one who has ever looked like a legitimate prospect, and he is the only one I see having much chance of making it to the majors.
  6. twins_89
    At the time they were drafted I loved the Larnach and Lee selections and hated the Cavaco and Sabato picks. The biggest difference was that Larnach/Lee were guys who had dropped a little past their rannking, while Cavaco/Sabato were players that the Twins reached for. My main takaway is that Falvey is not smarter than the overall consensus on top draft prospects. With that said, the current front office has done a pretty good job with their 2nd-10th round picks.
  7. twins_89
    The Twins will have 3 open spots on the 40-man roster after they put Paddack, Canterino, and Lewis on the 60-day IL. Solano fills one opening. That will still leave two spots for someone to earn their way onto the 40-man roster in spring training (or for a late reliever signing).
  8. twins_89
    With Spring training fast approaching, I'm wondering if the asking price of Chafin and/or Fulmer could be coming down to a point that would make sense the Twins.
  9. twins_89
    The Twins starting pitcher depth looks good on paper, but there are still serious questions because of health issues. The quality of the depth will come down to how many games Mahle, Maeda, Winder, Ober, and Paddack are available.
  10. twins_89
    The Twins could really use a good developmental year, something they haven't had much luck with recently. Getting fully healthy seasons from Kirilloff, Larnach, and Winder could have a big impact at the major league level. Seeing Lewis and Canterino return with the same production they had when they went down would add some high-end depth later in the season. Finally, Balazovic and Martin need to get back on track and show why they used to be elite prospects. That's a ton of talent that just hasn't been able to stay healthy or take the next step developmentally.
  11. twins_89
    The reason Duran is in the bullpen to begin with is because he couldn't stay healthy as a starter. I have no doubt that if the Twins believed that Duran could pitch 150+ innings a year he would be in the rotation, unfortunately that just isn't the case.
  12. twins_89
    I'm guessing Alexy is the guy who gets dropped from the 40-man roster. The Twins are running out of players they can drop from the 40-man without pain (meaning someone would likely claim them off waivers).
  13. twins_89
    I'm fine with the deal. The overall value seems pretty solid and I think the Twins were overstocked on the infield with Kirilloff, Polanco, Correa, Miranda, Arraez, Gordon, and Farmer (plus Lewis, Lee, Austin and Julien potentially to being ready at some point this season). The Twins have built some pretty good starting pitching depth for upcoming season. The team is still lacking a true #1 starter, but I'd rate the Twins #2-10 starters as being as good a group as there is in the Majors.
  14. twins_89
    I don't expect the Twins to be bad, but to have a chance at the playoffs there are just too many things that would have to go the Twins way. If Gray, Mahle, and Maeda each pitch 140+ innings and Buxton is healthy (can play the outfield everyday) for 140 games things could get interesting. There is a pretty big range of performance possibilities for guys like Polanco, Kepler, and Gallo with the team needing them to perform closer to the high end of their abilities. Other uncertainties that could impact the team's record are the health of Lewis, Kirilloff, Larnach, Ober, Winder, and Alcala. The Twins would need to get real contributions from most of that group. Basically, if everything breaks the in Twins favor they could compete to win the central, but the chances of that happening are pretty bad.
  15. twins_89
    For me this signing is a pretty clear indication that the Twins have no intention of fielding a competitive team this season. If I had to guess, I'd say the front office is looking around and saying who can we burn money on that has a chance of building some trade value. At this point, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Twins basically hold a 2-3 month fire sale leading up to the trade deadline (with Gray, Mahle, Maeda, Lopez, Pagan, Kepler, Polanco, Arraez, Farmer, Vasquez, and Gallo being on the trade block).
  16. twins_89
    Has the Falvey regime developed a starter (and by developed, I mean that the player was in the Twins farm system for more than one season) that has pitched 150 innings in the majors? I thought about it and wasn't able to come up with any starters who meet that criterion (Ober and Dobnak are both under 130 innings). Am I forgetting anybody?
  17. twins_89
    Bunday and Archer have been solid signings, but if things had gone better for the organization I think both would have been out of the rotation by July. Injuries to Paddack, Ober, and Winder have really hurt the team. In addition, having none of Balazovic, Woods Richardson, or Canterino pushing for a spot has been a big disappointment. Bundy/Archer have been fine as the 4/5 starters, I just wish that better options had made them expendable.
  18. twins_89
    My guess is that in the next couple of weeks the Twins will fall to 5+ games back in the standings at which point they will shut down Buxton. After that things will get worse, and they will finish 3rd in the AL Central (well out of the playoff picture with a record below .500).
  19. twins_89
    At this point, my guess would be that the Twins have 50/50 odds of making the playoffs. I'd rate the Twins as being roughly on par with the Blue Jays, Mariners, Orioles, Rays, Guardians, and White Sox. I view any 3-game playoff series against those teams as a toss-up. Unfortunately, when it comes to the top teams (Yankees, Astros, Dodgers, and Mets), I think the most likely outcome is the Twins getting swept (with a best case of winning 1 game in a series). To date during the regular season against the Yankees/Astros/Mets, the Twins are 1-8 with the majority of the losses being crushing blowouts.
  20. twins_89
    I think the judgement on Correa could still go either way. If Correa gets hot for the last 54 games and the Twins make the playoffs, his signing will look OK. If he struggles to hit and the team misses the postseason, he will land on the growing list of Twins free agent signings who have been significantly worse than expected.
  21. twins_89
    It's been really great to see Gordon go from being a DFA candidate to a legitimate major league player. If he can improve his outfield defense, he could have a lock on the utility role for the next 5 years with a chance at becoming an everyday player.
  22. twins_89
    I still look at the chances of Correa opting in as extremely remote, likely only happening if he suffers a significant injury before the end of the season. With that said, I would be perfectly happy for him to opt in for one more year where he knows he needs to improve his performance to get paid. I think the Twins are in a good position as long as they don't give him a huge long-term contract,
  23. twins_89
    I'm not sure why Moran is in the minors. It seems extremely likely he would do a better job than Pagan or Duffey.
  24. twins_89
    And won the game in the 11th. They are now 0.5 games back (or 0.0 if the Twins don't score).
  25. twins_89
    About the only way it would work is if Buxton hits for Sanchez, and then Hamilton replaces Byron and takes over catching (at which point there is no one left on the bench).
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