What Twins Over/Unders Are You Taking in 2022?

If Buck can stay healthy he will be over the HR number.  When healthy for a full year I think he will clearly pass 30.  He has really found his power and his HR are crushed, not wall scrapers, and he is locked in turning on those breaking pitches.  The only reason I would say under is because I expect only 81 to 90 games as that is his norm. 

I'm under on most because I think the front office will be sellers in June/July even if the team comes strong out of the gates.  Hard to get enthused if you're on a team run like that.

Buxton will have a super year.  Reason - he now signs autographs with a bible verse.

I'm "over" on all but Sanchez's homers.  I think Kiriloff plays a lot of first base and Sano is the DH for a bunch of games.  I am an unabashed homer, though, so...

31 minutes ago, Halsey Hall said:

Buxton will have a super year.  Reason - he now signs autographs with a bible verse.

Job 16:12

Buxton being a legitimate MVP candidate but not making the over on 26.5 HR strikes me as a very odd take.

The power has been central to his breakout.  He's not going to suddenly turn into a super patient OBP guy, he's going to be aggressive and try to hit the snot out of the ball.  If the results are similar to the last few years he'll only need to get to 400 or so PA to beat the over.  Whether he stays healthy enough seems to be the main question to me.

1 hour ago, Einheri said:

I'm under on most because I think the front office will be sellers in June/July even if the team comes strong out of the gates.  Hard to get enthused if you're on a team run like that.

How about we let them play a little first before anointing the head of the Prince of Desperation.

Byron Buxton 26.5 Home Runs (Ted's Take - Under): Absolutely going to take over (maybe not by a huge amount but still).  If he stays on the field, the numbers will be there.

Carlos Correa .280 Batting Average (Ted's Take - Under): I'm going to say this one is probably going to be a Push.  Some will depend on how well the others around him are hitting and some will be due to just plain luck/unluck (no that's not a real word, but I'm claiming it for now).  I will argue the BA is a useful stat, just not the be all end all, and that he will be sitting between .265 (low end) to .285 (high end).

Carlos Correa 25.5 Home Runs (Ted's Take - Over): He'll be at or over this number.  He should see a good selection of pitches.

Gary Sanchez 25.5 Home Runs (Ted's Take - Over): Same as Correa, He'll be at or over this number.  He should see a good selection of pitches as long as he's in the lineup somewhere.

Miguel Sano 31.5 Home Runs (Ted's Take - Over):  He's too strong not to "hit" this number (hehe).  Over

Sonny Gray 9.5 Wins (Ted's Take - Over): With a better defense and offense behind him... way over (going to go high and say 15 or 16 wins)

Minnesota Twins 81.5 Wins (Ted's Take - Over):  Over.  Unless the baseball gods curse them again in their desire to crush the sole of man on earth, this team is to good to produce a carbon copy of last years perfect storm of disaster.  85 (low end) to 90 (high end) wins.

3 hours ago, Halsey Hall said:

Buxton will have a super year.  Reason - he now signs autographs with a bible verse.

Haven't seen this. Link?

2 hours ago, 2wins87 said:

Buxton being a legitimate MVP candidate but not making the over on 26.5 HR strikes me as a very odd take.

I guess my thought process is that there's a good amount of doubles and triples in there. I have consistently been high on his power, but 30 just seems like such a big number for him, even if he was on pace for 50 last year. Willing to be proven wrong.

Solid list of over/unders?

Buxton 26.5HR - I'm taking the over on this one. I'm betting on Buxton being healthy, and if he is, then he's going to clear 30 hrs in my book. It's a fair line, because you just don't know if he's going to get in enough games, but I'm feeling optimistic on the most exciting player finally getting that healthy year.

Correa .280BA - I'll go the under on this one: high average isn't one of Correa's strength, though it's not like he's a piker or anything. Not an easy one, just a gut check that he's going to land somewhere around .270-.275

Correa 25.5HR - I'm taking the under on this one as well; I think he lands in the low 20's somewhere (and it'll be great), but I just don't feel like the Twins are lucky enough for him to have back to back career years. Hope I lose this one, huge.

Sanchez 25.5HR - Tough one, because it's hard to know how many games he's going to play...but I'm going over. I think he's going to get enough run either behind the plate or at DH to clear this one. 

Sano 31.5HR - Another really tough number...but while I think the whole "he's reported in the best shape of his life" is a classic spring training nonsenseburger, I feel like he's better positioned to avoid the long slumps this year? I'm betting on 35 HRs for Sano, and for a lot of twins fans to forget every single one of them any time he has 3 Ks in a game.

Gray 9.5W - I'll bet the over, even though pitcher wins are a dumb stat. I think the twins are good enough to get him there and I'm betting he's healthy enough to make at least 25 starts.

Twins 81.5W - I'll bet the over on this one too. The rotation has plenty of questions to answer, but the depth is better. the lineup is playoff quality. I think the bullpen is underrated. This feels like a bounceback team that lands north of 85 wins to me. They were unlucky last year in terms of key injuries but also in that all of their coin flip acquisitions went south. I think they'll do better this year (I like the Archer acquisition; I'm less sanguine about Bundy, but last year we crapped out on both of those kinds of signings.)

Bonus over/under from me:

60 or more games in MLB for Jose Miranda (I'm betting the over)

9 hours ago, LastOnePicked said:

Buxton 26.5HR - LOP Take: Over (29)

Correa .280BA - LOP Take: Under (.278)

Correa 25.5HR - LOP Take: Over (27)

Sanchez 25.5HR - LOP Take: Under (18)

Sano 31.5HR - LOP Take: Over (33)

Gray 9.5W - LOP Take: Over (12)

Twins 81.5W - LOP Take: Over (86)

What can I say, I'm feeling pretty bullish on our guys. Knock on wood, could be a fun season.

Agree on all.

I've consulted my crystal ball (an upended empty bottle of Grain Belt) to answer this question and here's what I see:

Second week of the season Buxton will run full steam into the centerfield fence and be implanted so deep they'll have to cut him out of the padding with a DeWalt sawzall; out for the season. Buck, once he recovers, will be traded to the Little Sisters of the Poor because, you know, the sisters have a hole in their lineup.

Correa will collide full-on with Polanco on a pick-off throw from Sanchez behind the plate, breaking both players', noses, clavicles and gold chains; both players out for the season, the chains converted into gold teeth and implanted in a rap singer.

Because of the errant throw, Sanchez will be traded to the White Sox for a couple of used baseballs in the hopes that he will do the same thing to the Sox. However, once in a Sox uniform he'll set the record for the most consecutive home runs for a season and top out around 80.

Sano will strike out so many times Rocco will just throw out a white towel every time the big man is due up. But then one day he consults the spreadsheets, holds a finger up to test the wind from the front office, and sends the big man up to the plate. He swings at the first pitch, low and away, misses by a foot, the bat slips out of his hand, bounces off the pitcher's head, beans the third baseman, ricochet's into the stands and KO's Wally the Beerman, touching off a riot for the scattered Linenekugels, which nobody will drink unless it's stolen or given away for free. Sano gets arrested for assault and bat-trio and does time in the Hennepin county slammer where he acquires 76 tattoos and a trombone and eventually takes over Cell Block 13 where everyone calls him "Whiffer".

There it is, straight from the bottle.

I'll take the over.

7 hours ago, Ted Schwerzler said:

Haven't seen this. Link?

There isn't a link, just a signed ball.

On 4/6/2022 at 4:09 PM, ashbury said:

Genesis 1:1, right?  "In The Big Inning..."

Not quite.