Twins Minor League Report (8/15): Pitching Paves the Way

Oooh...think I'd have to go with Graterol edging out Thorpe for pitcher of the day, but that's just me.

Okay, here's my take on the playoff possibilities of all the Twins affiliates.  Correct me if I'm wrong on anything...

First, the top two affiliates  - Rochester and Chattanooga - appear to be out of luck for a post-season appearance this year.

In High-A,  the Miracle pulled to within a half game of the FSL South second half leaders Charlotte Stone Crabs with a win this evening.  Can take over 1st place with a win tomorrow (Thursday).

In Low-A, the Kernels remain in a virtual first place tie with the Peoria Chiefs after the suspended game.

Correction:

Quad Cities and Peoria qualified for the MWL West playoffs in the first half.  The Kernels currently lead the Beloit Snappers by 2 games, the Kane County Cougars by 4 games and Wisconsin Timber Rattlers by 4.5 games.  The top two teams of these four will make the playoffs for the second half.

In Appy Rookie Ball, the Elizabethton Twins are 5.5 games clear of the third place Bristol Pirates for a playoff spot.  The Twins   and 2nd place Kingsport Mets (2.5 GB) would make the playoffs if the season ended today.

The GCL Twins find themselves 1 game back of the GCL Red Sox for the GCL South title.

Sound about right?

I continue to be wearing my rosey sunglasses with this group of minor leaguers.  Kirilloff is just killing it.  Thorpe and Graterol fulfilling their potential.  Most excellent.

ive been on the thorpe bandwagon for years but at this point with what hes doing and where hes at in the minors he is a top ten prospect in my personal top five.. the injury concerns are no longer a valid reason to have him so low imo.. he had tj just like graterol and romero

I’ve been on the Gonsalves bandwagon for years, but at this point all that it’s got me is .................admiration for his persistence!

Just a note concerning the MWL (low-A) playoffs:

 

When you look at the current 2nd half standings, you can just disregard Peoria and Quad Cities, since they qualified in the season's first half.

 

The Kernels currently lead Beloit by 2.5 games and Kane County & Wisconsin by 4.5 games. CR just needs to finish in the top 2 spots among those teams to qualify for the postseason. They have 19 games remaining.

Thanks for the correction!

Didn't look deep enough at the MWL playoff procedures.  Eight teams make the playoffs not four

You all know that I too am on the Thorpe bandwagon.  It started for me back when he was 16 (or was it 17) and pitching in the Australian Winter League.  Remember checking his stats every game he started.  If memory serves, he had the second best ERA in the league up until the last game or two of the winter when he had a couple normal starts.  And all the other numbers, K, BB, WHIP supported his excellent ERA.

Was Seth psychic the other day with his post on the 2016 draft.  Very good night for Miranda and Rortvedt along with AK's monster.  And the #11 pick is also settling in very nicely, Tyler Benninghoff.  That pick was the type of move that really good organizations make, great to start seeing the results after his TJ rehab.

Late season promotions at the AA or AAA level often have to do with playoffs. Apparently not an issue this year, other than maybe preventing promotions from high A to AA. The big issue now will probably deal with offseason status in regards to 40 man roster, rule 5 draft eligibility, and minor league free agent standing. Moves like Kohl Stewart over Stephen Gonsalves are less about who deserves the promotion and more about a prospects future. Gonsalves is not going anywhere unless it is part of a trade. He is on the 40 man and not a milb FA. Stewart was rule 5 eligible last year but had not shown enough to be selected. Probably not the case this year. They need to find out what the have with him.

Don’t count on seeing anyone brought up for a September look if they are not already on the 40 man or have to be added this winter. Also be aware that they starting of the major league clock is a big issue as well. As much as I would like to see what Lewis, Rooker, or Kirilloff could do against MLB pitching, it is not going to happen. As painful as it will be to watch Stewart, Slegers, Enns, Littel ... take their lumps, it is proabably the smart route for those that need to make offseason decisions.

My goodness!  Where would Kiriloff be if he hadn't missed ALL of last season?  Would he be in Minnesota right now, AAA?

Kid is downright an excellent hitter.  I can't wait to see how he continues to develop.

Id like Kirilloff to stay at FM and play some 1B. As he moves up, he will need versatility because Rooker isn't going away and I am not thrilled about dumping Kepler.

If Kirilloff and Rooker stay hot next year it will be interesting to see what happens next year.

Not a bad problem to have...

Ok, Kiriloff with another run of the mill night going 4-4. Would love to see him in the Arizona Fall League and he really should be starting the 2019 season in Chattanooga. 

I think both things are pretty much a lock. Only thing that will keep him out of the AFL is the team deciding he needs a break after playing a full season coming off a significant injury. And he's definitely not going back to Ft. Myers after the way he's torn the cover off the ball. Next year will be a good test for him, facing pitchers that should have a more refined approach.

Interesting fun with numbers comparison. In their MiLB careers:

 

Pitcher A (23 years old):  377.0 IP, 2.94 ERA, 2.8 BB/9IP, 8.3 K/9IP, 1.17 WHIP

 

Pitcher B (22 years old): 313.0IP, 3.19 ERA, 3.0 BB/9IP, 10.8 K/9IP, 1.21 WHIP

 

Pitcher C (24 years old): 591.2 IP, 2.77 ERA, 2.5 BB/9IP, 9.6 K/9IP, 1.08 WHIP

 

Pitcher D (24 years old): 599.0 IP, 2.46 ERA, 3.6 BB/9IP, 9.5 K/9IP, 1.10 WHIP

 

.......................

 

Pitcher C is Jose Berrios and pitcher A is Fernando Romero.

 

Stephen Gonsalves is pitcher D.

 

Lewis Thorpe is pitcher B.

 

There's a nice future here in my opinion, and I'd probably project them as a rotation like this:

 

-Staff Ace: Jose Berrios

-#2 Starter: Lewis Thorpe

-#3 Starter: Fernando Romero

-#4 Starter: Stephen Gonsalves

And when you consider that Thorpe lost two full years of development, his future is very bright!

I highly doubt Romero is going to be a #2 starter in the big leagues. He's an Andrew Miller-like reliever waiting to happen, and I wouldn't even mess around with the starter thing. He could be dominant for the next six years in that role prior to free agency. Romero lacks fastball command (always has) and certainly lacks an MLB changeup. He certainly needs to improve command (possible) for whatever role, but we do not need to waste years trying to get him to develop a changeup only to figure out it's never going to get there. High leverage the hell out of him in late innings.

"Ben Rortvedt drove in Alex Kirilloff".

Now there's a sentence I'd like to read for the next ten years!

Okay, here's my take on the playoff possibilities of all the Twins affiliates.  Correct me if I'm wrong on anything...

 

First, the top two affiliates  - Rochester and Chattanooga - appear to be out of luck for a post-season appearance this year.

 

In High-A,  the Miracle pulled to within a half game of the FSL South second half leaders Charlotte Stone Crabs with a win this evening.  Can take over 1st place with a win tomorrow (Thursday).

 

In Low-A, the Kernels remain in a virtual first place tie with the Peoria Chiefs after the suspended game.

Correction:

Quad Cities and Peoria qualified for the MWL West playoffs in the first half.  The Kernels currently lead the Beloit Snappers by 2 games, the Kane County Cougars by 4 games and Wisconsin Timber Rattlers by 4.5 games.  The top two teams of these four will make the playoffs for the second half.

 

In Appy Rookie Ball, the Elizabethton Twins are 5.5 games clear of the third place Bristol Pirates for a playoff spot.  The Twins   and 2nd place Kingsport Mets (2.5 GB) would make the playoffs if the season ended today.

 

The GCL Twins find themselves 1 game back of the GCL Red Sox for the GCL South title.

 

Sound about right?

So, might we expect all 15 players who are on the 40 man but not currently on the 25 man MLB roster to be called up by September 8th?

This Thorpe guy looks like he could be something special. I'm impressed with his numbers at AA, especially the number of strikeouts he's gotten. At his age and level of experience, I think he'll need plenty of seasoning in AAA. You could also say that about a lot of other Twins starters who are on the fringe.

 

I'm going to repost my list of 2019 Twins starters in the current pipeline ranked by arbitrary starter "numbers".

 

#1: None

#2: Berrios, Romero

#3: Gibson (up from #4), Thorpe (new)

#4: Odorizzi, Littell, Pineda, Gonsalves (down from #3),

#5: Mejia, Stewart (new)

AAAA: Slegers, others

 

I really like the depth here. I'm so very glad we can be done with the likes of P. J. Walters, Cole DeVries, Adam Wilk, and Tim Melville. 

 

There's a lot of talent that could use MLB auditions like Gonsalves, Littell, Romero, and Mejia's out of options next year. I don't feel like all of these guys are going to get their chances... perhaps we could see one or two packaged in a trade along with other prospects over the offseason? 

Pineda is at worst a 3.

I highly doubt Romero is going to be a #2 starter in the big leagues. He's an Andrew Miller-like reliever waiting to happen, and I wouldn't even mess around with the starter thing. He could be dominant for the next six years in that role prior to free agency. Romero lacks fastball command (always has) and certainly lacks an MLB changeup. He certainly needs to improve command (possible) for whatever role, but we do not need to waste years trying to get him to develop a changeup only to figure out it's never going to get there. High leverage the hell out of him in late innings.

Nope, he's a starting pitcher until he isn't.