Twins Ignored the Human Side of Baseball in Louis Varland Trade

13 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I have never once in my entire life watched a baseball game because of where a single player was born.

I do think there was some bonus value in Joe Mauer, the franchise player, being a Minnesota kid. But there's a difference in the face of the franchise being local versus a reliever. 

Glen Perkins didn't bring any additional value to the franchise because he happened to be born in Minnesota. And it probably would have been wise for those terrible teams to trade him away and try to rebuild. 

I fully expect Falvey to melt down the Kirby Puckett bronze statue next

I don't like losing Varland because he was local, but I do understand that a good GM has to trade current players for potential excess value when opportunities arise.  A lefty starter, yes that would be useful (a somewhat redundant lefty corner outfielder, not so much).  It was a strange trade.

I do fear Falvey unnecessarily sacrificed future value.  IF Varland became the Twins closer for the next year (very likely), and IF Varland was successful in that role (possible to likely), what would Varland's value have been in July 2026?  A good proven closer with 4 years of control... that would truly have brought back a big haul a year from now, much bigger than what the Twins got for Varland this year. 

I will be shocked if the Twins contend next year, which means they will likely be sellers next July as well.  If the Twins FO truly believes relievers are fungible assets to be traded, using the next year to build Varland's trade value would have been a very good investment to make.

1 hour ago, MGX said:

The only trade that was questionable was the Stewart trade since Outman (I follow the Dodgers & I liked him when he debuted) seems to be a poor fit. I don't think we should have expected a big return for Stewart, but we should have found a better fit in that deal. The other deals all look good to me. I've seen a lot of complaints on some of the deals like the Varland deal, but that looks like a good trade for the Twins & the Jax deal seems to be a very good trade for the Twins & yet you see many complaints about that as well. I think many on this site were unrealistic about what relief pitchers were going to return.

In the Duran trade Falvey could have held out for Painter & he gave in when he should have had the leverage, but I like our return in that deal. Painter could end up being great, but he's already had an arm injury & his comeback hasn't gone to plan for the Phillies. In the spring Dombrowski said he expected him to be up by July & he is still in AAA struggling with a 4.88 ERA. Meanwhile, Mick Abel seemed to be out of the Phillies plans after tough '24 & wasn't going to be given anything. He went out & dominated at AAA got a promotion to the show & had a few good outings before getting hit a bit & needed to back down to work on some things. Since then he has been pitching great at AAA. We also received a legit prospect in Tait who we wouldn't have gotten if Painter was in the deal.

In the end all that matters is do we like the trades & for me that is a Yes, with the exception of the Stewart trade.

I agree and the Twins were never going to get a lot for Stewart, although Outman is a joke.  I also like the Jax trade in that the Twins have a pretty good shot of having a regular 4/5 starter from it.  Let's not forget, Jax has not pitched as well this year.  I don't like the Varland trade for many of the reasons stated; however, i would also add, that it was probably not a good business decision from a fan engagement perspective.

Look, I didn't like the Varland deal because he was showing that he could handle being a high-leverage reliever, he was cheap and under team control for a long time, and would fill a real team need after trading out so many other relievers. I'm concerned about the return, because while it's be reported that we got a "Triple A Starter", Rojas has only made 5 starts above A-ball, and never thrown more than 85 innings in a pro season, so he's likely much farther away from being a real option, and A-ball prospects (which is what Rojas really is IMHO) are much more suspects than prospects. Roden has done little to impress so far in MLB and there's a real possibility that he's a Quad-A player, despite some good minor league stats, especially at 25.

I'm not concerned that he's a Saint Paul kid. That's a nice bonus, but should never stop a team from making the right business decisions for the club. I'm thrilled that Varland has been a good dude and treated fans well (always better to have guys who are positive, nice to the kids, respectful with fans over surly, angry, or absent players), but the off-field stuff can't trump on-field. Fan favorite? I doubt he was more popular than Duran, and no one is raising hell over Duran being dealt (even though he was developed by the Twins, spent the vast majority of his pro career in the organization, and was reportedly well-liked and treated people well. I've personally seen him be a class dude, for whatever that's worth) because of that.

The problem with the Varland trade is the return might not make sense and seemed unnecessary, not that he was a nice hometown boy.

34 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I have never once in my entire life watched a baseball game because of where a single player was born. If you're just talking players, I watch the Twins more for Byron Buxton than I ever watched for Louie Varland. Byron wasn't born anywhere near MN. Pitchers? I watched far more for Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, or Pablo Lopez starting games. None of them were born in MN, nor did they have any "human MN connection." If you just want to go with the pen, I watched infinitely more in anticipation of seeing Jax strike out the side or Duran throw 100 MPH "splinkers" than Louie Varland. 

The only "human MN connection" I have to the Twins is that my dad was a Twins fan, so I was taught to be a Twins fan. I have multiple friends who are from MN but are fans of teams from other states because that's where their parents are from so it's the teams they watched and were taught to cheer for. My niece and nephew cheer for some Chicago teams and some MN teams despite being from Milwaukee because my sister is from MN and my brother-in-law is from Chicago. Where the players are from have nothing at all to do with my connection to the MN Twins. Does it make Varland, Wallner, or Mauer types cool stories? Absolutely. But it doesn't make me watch any more than if they'd been born anywhere else on the planet. The Twins weren't exactly selling out Target Field because of their 2 home grown players this year. Because, as it turns out, that isn't actually why people watch the Twins or go to games. I'd bet most of the people who've walked through the Target Field gates this year don't even know the Twins had 2 home state players on the roster for most of the year. Because that isn't why they go to the games.

You nailed it.  Not sure what's in the water on this board but did Bulls fans mind that MJ was from Wilmington, did patriots fans care that Brady was from northern CA (via MN they say), do Dodger or Yankee fans care where their players are from?  I'd say no to each.

Do we take a bit more pride because someone is one of us?  For sure.  Having Hrbek (the best home town story I can think of) play for the twins was great.  Grew up in the shadows, etc, etc.  But he was also an amazing, relatable player.

but you are 100% correct.  The attendance and interest is related to success, not where a player is from.  Anyone can debate the trade on its merits - totally fair.  But to act like Louis was done dirty is nuts.

10 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

But, yes, I agree. Mauer had extra juice being the local kid HoFer. But nobody is going to games for relievers. And the average fan doesn't know where players are born. Especially ones who aren't even marketed by the team. Maybe I'm just not the Twins target market despite being a former season ticket holder and 40 years old (typically expected to have some money to spend on things like sports teams) so I haven't seen any of the vast amounts of "come see local reliever Louie Varland at Target Field!" marketing that was out there. 

I do think Mauer being from Minnesota made it a lot easier for them to give him that 10 year extension. I don't think that would have happened otherwise. 

But, yeah, I think you're right. I also don't really remember anyone loving Glen Perkins because he was a Minnesota kid. I think he was viewed as a pretty decent closer for a bad team and not some folk hero that people are now trying to make Varland out to be. 

13 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

Rojas has only made 5 starts above A-ball, and never thrown more than 85 innings in a pro season

Valid, but I would respond, he's a 22 year old that has struck out 40% of the batters he's faced in AA after pitching really well in A+, and that's with really good control. Rojas is a legit prospect. 

2 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

As a seller, we should have won every trade & some we should have been blown away. But we lost every single trade, maybe not terribly, but nevertheless lost. Most of the players we received were redundant & or irrelevant to impacting this team in the near future, if at all. Varland is one reason why we watch the Twins, his trade is a perfect reason why Falvey shouldn't have been responsible for trading off our players or even running this team. Falvey is the reason why I no longer watch the Twins.

See, here's the thing: you simply can't run a team with the expectation that every trade you make you're going to "win". What you're really suggesting here is that unless the Twins screwed the other team they should always hang on to their players, even when selling. Because if the only way you'll deal a guy is to get the other team to overpay, they're not going to deal with you. Now, you can somewhat get away with that on guys like Duran, Jax, and Varland (we'll get to Stewart in a minute) who have team control left, but when you're flipping rentals, expecting to "win" the trade every time means you're likely to not move guys who are going to be gone after the season and get nothing for them. If you're selling because you're not a playoff team, why is that good or smart? Because it's more important for the fanbase to keep a well-liked player (like Castro)?

Trades are still good when it's relatively equal value. Sometimes the market might demand that you get extra value for certain types of players at certain points during the year...but not always. And what the fans (or media) might deem as the "correct" value for a player might not be what the league has them at. Which is almost certainly where Stewart lands. Personally, I wouldn't have dealt him for a return like this because again, he's cheap and under team control and has the stuff to be a high-leverage reliever. But with his medicals, he also simply can't be counted on to be a cornerstone of your bullpen even if he finishes this season healthy.

You have significant risk as a franchise when you deal MLB talent for prospects, no matter where they are rated. You're buying more lottery tickets and hoping that you're IDing the right guys and enough of them will pan out. If Tait becomes the starting catcher for the Twins in 2028 and is a good player, then the twins will have done well in that trade regardless of what Duran does for Philly. We won't know who (if anyone) "won" these deals for a while.

To us, baseball is a sport. But to the managements, baseball is a business and that can be cruel to us. Varland didn't do much until this year but some players take longer to develop their skills. We'll see down the road how this works out but I'm sure those who live in Minnesota are upset. 

2 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

Baseball to me is a family sport. A wonderful time of watching sons, brothers & nephews playing ball. At tournaments, the family would hang out & have picnics while waiting around. This Varland trade is a perfect example of Falvey's weird analytics. Analytics based on weird philosophies, void of underlying considerations like a pitcher's arm condition or intangibles like a player's impact on the fanbase & clubhouse.

I have advocated the trading of players like Julien, who had reached their maximum trade value & were very expendable. Varland had not reached his maximum trade value & he was very valuable as the closer & foundation of the upcoming BP, which is floundering. We needed LH hitting cOF Roden like we needed a....... I think you get my drift, Rojas is a LHP with potential. The trade was OK, but IMO, we lost that trade even on face value. I can't say that Varland is untouchable, but the other team would have to REALLY blow my socks off. Which wouldn't happen because Varland is much more valuable to us than anybody else.

As a seller, we should have won every trade & some we should have been blown away. But we lost every single trade, maybe not terribly, but nevertheless lost. Most of the players we received were redundant & or irrelevant to impacting this team in the near future, if at all. Varland is one reason why we watch the Twins, his trade is a perfect reason why Falvey shouldn't have been responsible for trading off our players or even running this team. Falvey is the reason why I no longer watch the Twins.

I'm fine with the returns of the trades for the soon to be FA's. One can argue we should have done better but those trades are what you expect. But the trades of Varland, Jax, Duran and to a lesser degree Stewart, should have blown us away as you say. None of them do. I agree, Falvey should not be the one dealing these guys. Fire him. The longer he stays running the Twins FO the more my optimism wanes.

7 hours ago, LewFordLives said:

Does anyone actually believe Roden can be an everyday player? With all the outfielders coming up through the system, will he even be on the 40-man a year from now?

You can defend most of the trades to some extent. They each had at least some rationale. I still don't know what the rationale was for the Varland and Stewart trades.

This Roden groupthink is so bizarre. Did someone dog on Roden post-trade and everyone just jumped on board?

I realize sources differ, but Fangraphs had him as the #3 prospect in the Jays system with a 50 FV. For reference, the Twins prospects with a 50FV are Emmanuel Rodrigueze, Luke Keashcall, and Connor Prielipp. 

Roden is 25 and scuffled in his (so far very short) MLB debut, but had a 0.919 OPS in 121 ABs at AAA this year.

It was probably my least favorite trade of the bunch, but my gosh is perspective tough to find on the board these days.

1 hour ago, Killer Rod Tony said:

This gentleman wrote correctly. You don't want to have people stop coming because you traded one of their most popular players you know it's supposed to be just about money right? Mr varland put people in a stands. He also has found his niche as a relief picture because he wasn't likely to make it as a starter but he put his heart into it he was so dedicated to wanting to do well for his hometown. Now I see he blew a save in Toronto. I have been a follower of the Minnesota Twins religiously since 1965. Yes we lost these trades look at what Oakland received and returned for Watson versus what we received in return for Duran. I think these other general managers new they could get away with it with Mr Falvey. If they had just stopped Trading before Mr varland was traded this would be almost tolerable because at least you'd have somebody to close the game with. That would make the twins have a chance in the remaining games that's what a big deal your closer is. Only about 15 maybe 20% of the top 100 ever play Major League Baseball so just because you got two for a fantastic Major League player makes no sense you got what you wanted out of that top 100 player or your Triple A player they made it for you the reason why you paid them money of which Mr Varland just makes about minimum wage. And five more years words can't describe what stupid this was. The other general managers are shaking their heads probably for the next year. I tell you what if I was Mr Falvey I would not show my face at the winter meetings it would be so embarrassing. Somehow they have defeated Detroit two out of three. So they're out there picking up available players when Louie was already there doing the job for the least amount of money stupid and MLB television this is the time where you can get more than they're worth from these competing teams well selfie didn't do that not one trade did he get more than the player was worth.

Thank you Killer!

Baseball has been a business for a long time. That said, some players regardless if they are natives or not should not be traded unless they request a trade. To me Varland and Ryan are those kinds of players. I have no issue with all the other trades now that I know that Jax asked to be traded. This FO led by Falvey is not the kind of FO that I like to see running a ballclub. 

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

I have never once in my entire life watched a baseball game because of where a single player was born. If you're just talking players, I watch the Twins more for Byron Buxton than I ever watched for Louie Varland. Byron wasn't born anywhere near MN. Pitchers? I watched far more for Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, or Pablo Lopez starting games. None of them were born in MN, nor did they have any "human MN connection." If you just want to go with the pen, I watched infinitely more in anticipation of seeing Jax strike out the side or Duran throw 100 MPH "splinkers" than Louie Varland. 

The only "human MN connection" I have to the Twins is that my dad was a Twins fan, so I was taught to be a Twins fan. I have multiple friends who are from MN but are fans of teams from other states because that's where their parents are from so it's the teams they watched and were taught to cheer for. My niece and nephew cheer for some Chicago teams and some MN teams despite being from Milwaukee because my sister is from MN and my brother-in-law is from Chicago. Where the players are from have nothing at all to do with my connection to the MN Twins. Does it make Varland, Wallner, or Mauer types cool stories? Absolutely. But it doesn't make me watch any more than if they'd been born anywhere else on the planet. The Twins weren't exactly selling out Target Field because of their 2 home grown players this year. Because, as it turns out, that isn't actually why people watch the Twins or go to games. I'd bet most of the people who've walked through the Target Field gates this year don't even know the Twins had 2 home state players on the roster for most of the year. Because that isn't why they go to the games.

I'm 1/8th German so would bring the family and sit in the  champions club several times a year to watch Kepler.  But no japanese in me, so I wouldn't drop a dime to watch Ohtani.. 

3 minutes ago, jjswol said:

Baseball has been a business for a long time. That said, some players regardless if they are natives or not should not be traded unless they request a trade. To me Varland and Ryan are those kinds of players. I have no issue with all the other trades now that I know that Jax asked to be traded. This FO led by Falvey is not the kind of FO that I like to see running a ballclub. 

I'm genuinely curious why you put Varland in this category?  He's almost 28, has a career ERA of 4.6.  I don't believe he's anything like Ryan.  And why wasn't Duran in this category?  

not being sarcastic, I'm truly not quite understanding.

Rojas and Roden? Could be a couple decent players. For Varland?? No. As already observed, Louis Varland's value to the team was still being explored. What we did know was that his velocity had taken the usual tick upwards after moving to the bullpen. We also could see that he can now strike out hitters with his well-spotted 98 mph fastball and hard-diving knuckle curve. Possibly another dominant closer.

What I had failed to mention was that other thing - the hometown angle. Yes, Varland is a hometown kid that made good and caught on with the local professional baseball team. Yes, the hometown crowd loved him, because he was a big, friendly example of the kind of athletic Minnesota gentleman we all associate with Joe Mauer, Jack Morris, Dave Winfield, etc. We all like examples of the best of us. 

Problem is, the Pohlads don't care. They're just local bankers, billionaire oligarchs that like to pose as hometown baseball fans. They aren't, not really. To them, the Twins are just another asset, a long term investment whose value varies from year to year, and which could be enhanced by trading a few human resources. They are looking to sell the team, so by their calculations, stripping it down to the bolts will simplify the upcoming transaction. 

The front office can't win. The team was underperforming as they have all season. Anyone watching the games could see that there was a spark missing. If they hang on to Louie everyone will be crying about how they managed the team with their hearts instead of their heads. They trade the guy and they're cold-hearted monsters.

I have to be honest, the post-deadline team is pretty fun to watch. Let's see what happens...

8 minutes ago, jimbo92107 said:

Rojas and Roden? Could be a couple decent players. For Varland?? No. As already observed, Louis Varland's value to the team was still being explored. What we did know was that his velocity had taken the usual tick upwards after moving to the bullpen. We also could see that he can now strike out hitters with his well-spotted 98 mph fastball and hard-diving knuckle curve. Possibly another dominant closer.

What I had failed to mention was that other thing - the hometown angle. Yes, Varland is a hometown kid that made good and caught on with the local professional baseball team. Yes, the hometown crowd loved him, because he was a big, friendly example of the kind of athletic Minnesota gentleman we all associate with Joe Mauer, Jack Morris, Dave Winfield, etc. We all like examples of the best of us. 

Problem is, the Pohlads don't care. They're just local bankers, billionaire oligarchs that like to pose as hometown baseball fans. They aren't, not really. To them, the Twins are just another asset, a long term investment whose value varies from year to year, and which could be enhanced by trading a few human resources. They are looking to sell the team, so by their calculations, stripping it down to the bolts will simplify the upcoming transaction. 

The names Louis Varland is being associated with in this thread is beyond crazy.  The absolute legends of MN baseball, and Louis.  Wow.

I hope most of you, and the massive amount of fans that showed up at Target Field to see him pitch the 6th inning, fly safely to Toronto to watch him play.  I'll be here tuning into the Twins

1 hour ago, jmlease1 said:

See, here's the thing: you simply can't run a team with the expectation that every trade you make you're going to "win". What you're really suggesting here is that unless the Twins screwed the other team they should always hang on to their players, even when selling. Because if the only way you'll deal a guy is to get the other team to overpay, they're not going to deal with you. Now, you can somewhat get away with that on guys like Duran, Jax, and Varland (we'll get to Stewart in a minute) who have team control left, but when you're flipping rentals, expecting to "win" the trade every time means you're likely to not move guys who are going to be gone after the season and get nothing for them. If you're selling because you're not a playoff team, why is that good or smart? Because it's more important for the fanbase to keep a well-liked player (like Castro)?

Trades are still good when it's relatively equal value. Sometimes the market might demand that you get extra value for certain types of players at certain points during the year...but not always. And what the fans (or media) might deem as the "correct" value for a player might not be what the league has them at. Which is almost certainly where Stewart lands. Personally, I wouldn't have dealt him for a return like this because again, he's cheap and under team control and has the stuff to be a high-leverage reliever. But with his medicals, he also simply can't be counted on to be a cornerstone of your bullpen even if he finishes this season healthy.

You have significant risk as a franchise when you deal MLB talent for prospects, no matter where they are rated. You're buying more lottery tickets and hoping that you're IDing the right guys and enough of them will pan out. If Tait becomes the starting catcher for the Twins in 2028 and is a good player, then the twins will have done well in that trade regardless of what Duran does for Philly. We won't know who (if anyone) "won" these deals for a while.

Let me put it this way. I'd be overjoyed if we got what we traded away for what we got in return, if we were buying instead of the trades that Falvey made when we bought at the deadline.