Twins Bullpen Overview by the Numbers

I'd open up the checkbook and acquire Jeurys Familia.  He earned nearly $8MM last year on a one-year contract.  I am a little hesitant, though, because of the domestic abuse cloud surrounding him.

I feel the Twins should sign one of the pitchers you feel are out of reach,  Britton, Miller, Kimbell, Familia, Herrera.  Also monitor the trade market for relievers from teams that do not expect to content in 2019.

Go back and check the very definition of fwar. It is not designed to be a finite number.  Openers, Starters, Primary Pitchers, Relievers Got to love the ways baseball comes up with innovations to screw up the stat classifications

So many relievers have a big ear followed by a bad that I am always fearful of the signing the big believer. Watching the playoffs I keep hearing how a picture turn there career around by changing their pitch mix or emphasize in a different pitch which means that it isn't so much the pitcher as the coaching they can take a good arm (and they are all good arms) and make them better in their performance. I like the idea of getting young live arms and not the established and already old relievers that have amassed a long resume.

I agree, Instead of shelling out big money for a "proven" reliever, I'd prefer they seek some of those "live arms" that could turn into valuable bullpen pieces. Much more cost effective, and will possibly produce better overall results.

Relievers are always a crap shoot. They seem to go from great to awful and vice versa with the flip of a switch.

I'm not sure why we are worried about cost effective for a 2-3 year deal for a RP.....they are flush with money, and every single veteran on the roster (3?) is a FA after next year.

 

It's about picking the right 1-2 guys, not about money. Even for a mid market team, given the context of their current players, they can afford 1-2 "expensive" RPs imo.

 

As for variability, that is largely driven by sample size issues. It doesn't take many bad breaks, when you only pitch 40-60 innings, to have bad outcomes. 

 

I'm happy to read someone that thinks they can develop RPs (based on what history), and that those players will somehow be more consistent and better than guys that have been successful. Or, do they need to pick all new RPs every year, since it is variable? 

They may be flush with cash but there is no need to just flush the cash

The Twins could use one more excellent bullpen piece, but mostly, they need some solid depth (part of the reason not looking at Nick Anderson or Jake Reed at the end of last season was so criminal).

I'm one of the biggest Anderson fans on the board and would have loved to see him in 2018, but it was not a crime to take one last look at Busenitz, Duffey, and Curtiss. But if they let him go in Rule 5, it will be a crime.

They should sign a reliever maybe two this offseason. There are several mid relievers I like from the list on a 2 year deal. Though I wonder who is available in a trade?

signing a good RP is flushing the cash? you have that little faith in the FO?

 

Who is more likely to be good as a RP next year, DeJong, or a guy that has been good in the majors?

Did I say anywhere mot to sign a good free agent reliever? Did I say DeJong was the answer?  With a maybe 90 mph FB DeJong would be the long man in blow outs. Nere is a reminder on spending for relievers https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/offseason-spending-on-relievers-isnt-working-out/

This team is not set anywhere in the bullpen. I hope Rogers keeps it up but his numbers are great because he was lights out in the 2nd half. In the 1st half he had a pedestrian 3.86 ERA and if we see 1st half Rogers we're no where near set for LH relievers.

 

They need 2 relievers who can be fireman types, and another 1-2 bargain bin relievers.

(Wow, quadruple negative. Follow that?)

He likely won’t be as effective against RHB as he was in the second half. However, he has improved against RHB every year he’s been in the league. No one is saying he’s Andrew Miller in his prime, but he’s a guy that can get lefties for sure and hold his own against righties. I’d be wary of using him in high leverage situations against higher quality RHB though.

Rogers second half appears mostly babip and (lack of) HR driven. Those numbers aren't likely sustainable.

Well, yeah, when you put up something like a 0.80 ERA in that stretch, it's going to be unsustainable. You'd hope he'd regress to a 2.00-3.00 ERA with more normal BABIP/HR numbers.

I think high 3's are more likely, as that's what he put up in the first half with similar k and bb numbers.

Sign me up for Joe Kelly, that man’s stuff is crazy nasty and could become an elite reliever if he could harness it. Other than him, I’d also be perfectly fine with any of Britton, Wilson, Herrera, Kimbrel, Ottavino, Phelps, Ramos, and Allen.

IMO, the FO believes that 2019 is a "wait-and-see" year. Pressly would not have been traded if they were serious about next season.

They might pick up two RP on one-year contracts, like Clippard, Norris or Warren. Any interesting RP will come - if at all - via trade, with several years of control.