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In looking to find their way forward from an organizational building capacity, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine had to decide whether Byron Buxton or Jose Berrios would be franchise cornerstones. Buxton was someone they had previously negotiated with, and ultimately he landed a $100 million deal prior to the 2022 season. Berrios was an arm awaiting a payday, and the Twins front office decided it wasn’t going to come from them.
When the names came out after the Toronto Blue Jays acquired the Twins ace, comments across the industry highlight how well Minnesota had done. It wasn’t universally believed that a deal involving Berrios could land either Austin Martin or Simeon Woods Richardson. Instead, Minnesota’s front office found a way to land both of the coveted top-100 prospects.
Only Nate Pearson and Jordan Groshans were left from the top four prospects for Toronto, and the Twins netting that sort of firepower for a player that they were going to let walk 15 months later was nothing short of exceptional. The only unfortunate aspect of the deal is that neither player has made a real impact thus far.
Martin came to Minnesota a year after he was the fifth overall pick in the 2020 MLB draft out of Vanderbilt. He was a top-20 prospect across baseball going into 2021, and he flashed his abilities during the Futures Game. Posting an .807 OPS with a .424 OBP, there was a lot to be excited about surrounding his offensive profile.
Left relatively unchanged after joining Minnesota’s organization in 2021, things started to go awry last season. Martin was urged to change his approach and swing in an attempt to unlock some power. He had never shown that sort of ability in his game, and tapping into it clearly caused issues across the board. He finished with an ugly .685 OPS despite still posting a .368 OBP.
Fast-forward to this season and things couldn’t be foggier for Martin. He has played in rehab games this season as he works his way back from an elbow injury. He recently was activated by the St. Paul Saints, and the hope would be that he can avoid Tommy John surgery. He is now 24 years old, and no longer looks like an answer at shortstop, while having the most clear path as a utility player.
There is no denying that Martin can have significant value for Minnesota, but he is Rule 5 Draft eligible this offseason, and surgery or not, the Twins will have a decision to make. He could certainly play the Willi Castro or Nick Gordon role a season from now, but the front office likely hoped for more when making him the centerpiece of a Berrios deal.
Helping to hedge their bet, Woods Richardson was seen as a candidate to be featured in a good rotation. He competed (in that he was on the roster) alongside Joe Ryan during the Olympics, and ultimately pitched just eight innings at Double-A during 2021.
Last season, Woods Richardson made his mark at both Double and Triple-A, posting a 2.77 ERA across 107 1/3 innings. He was every bit the star prospect Minnesota had hoped for. Despite being flipped by the Mets previously, it seemed that his third organization was going to be the one to benefit. At the end of the year, with Minnesota’s season in the tank, his first MLB start took place in the final weekend.
The train has fully derailed on Woods Richardson at St. Paul this season. He has made 11 starts and owns an ugly 7.47 ERA with declining strikeouts and increasing walks. He was lit up during a spot-start for the Twins, and his repertoire has never looked less belief-instilling. Still just 22 years old, he is incredibly young, but such a substantial step backwards is anything but ideal.
Although the Twins did exceptionally well when flipping Berrios as an asset, this is a reminder that prospect evaluations are increasingly difficult to pin down. We aren’t yet at a point where the return is a wash, but Martin being lost before getting started would be a substantial blow. Woods Richardson needs a sizable turnaround to avoid a future role in the bullpen, and Minnesota wants to capitalize much more than they have.
At the end of the day, the Twins were able to use Berrios dollars elsewhere, and they netted a massive prospect haul in the process. The dollars have made sense, but the prospects have proven less fruitful. No matter how big of a win at the time of a deal, how something plays out in the future is much less of a given.
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- Dman, nclahammer, weitz41 and 1 other
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