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  • This Twins Team Should Spark Playoff Excitement Among Casual Fans


    Hans Birkeland

    The 2023 Twins may not accumulate the type of win total that really get fanbases fired up, but taken for the sum of their parts, they represent the best chance for a Twins playoff run in arguably decades. If you're a casual fan who's been waiting for the Twins bandwagon to be worth joining, here's your chance.

    Image courtesy of © Jordan Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

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    Casual fans are the lifeblood of this country. They don't take things too personally, they don't experience the highs and lows obsessive fans do, and they generally have richer, fuller lives. The ultra-fans of musicians, politicians, celebrities, and sports teams are a pestilence whose maniacal need to defend their chosen cultural obsession is tired at this point.

    I am part of that pestilence, with my obsessive fandom revolving around the Minnesota Twins. I'm a native Minnesotan and something in my neurodivergent brain was drawn to baseball- the rest is history. I live and die on every pitch, which is at least better than living and dying on every tweet from and about some celebrity (I might be fooling myself).

    The casual fan is beset with fandom requests- they don't care and continue making genuine contributions to society. They should be commended for their restraint and perspective.

    But they'll like this Twins team.

    Casual fans will watch a crucial September game if it fits their schedule. And they love playoff runs. The critical games in September are hopefully over with Cleveland repeatedly tripping over themselves, but a playoff run should be the expectation for this team.

    The Twins are hitting well as a group right now. Edouard Julien has been a revelation as a leadoff hitter, with the league's best chase percentage.

    Max Kepler has reemerged, this time as the primary cleanup hitter. He's been one of baseball's top five right fielders since July, after a brutal start that left many fans and analysts calling for him to be cut loose from the team (not this one).

    Jorge Polanco has returned from several injuries to be a pest with power from both sides of the plate. He's been perpetually underrated as an unassuming star for several years now.

    Carlos Correa is starting to pick it up despite ongoing issues with plantar fasciitis, still plays a good shortstop, and has hit the seventh most home runs (18) in postseason history, tied with Reggie Jackson and Mickey Mantle.

    Ryan Jeffers has cooled off a bit but still ranks first among catchers in OPS. He hasn't played as much as the elite two-way catchers (of which there are maybe three), but factoring in his above-average defense and game-calling, Jeffers has a claim as one of the most valuable Twins (he does have the highest bWAR among Twins hitters).

    Matt Wallner is going through a rough patch right now, but his numbers are still decent overall, and he does possess what the old-school scouts call light tower power. When he connects, the ball is gone.

    Alex Kirilloff is back and has looked good thus far, with some hard balls hit to left-center. When on his game, Kirilloff offers power to all fields, excellent plate coverage, and, new this year, a keen batting eye. He gives me toned-down Mark Teixiera vibes. His health is always a question, but he can usually go a month before something breaks down, so he's lined up pretty well to at least get to October.

    Michael A. Taylor is a great guy to root for, given his personality and charitable work on rare diseases. He also plays excellent center field defense and hits home runs!

    Willi Castro plays everywhere, gets clutch hits, and steals bases!

    The guy we traded Luis Arraez for, Pablo López, has been really good, bordering on Cy-Young contending while nearly pacing the league in strikeouts (the most for a Twins pitching season since Johan Santana).

    After he got back in gear in August, Sonny Gray has been even better. He represents, along with López, the best one-two punch the Twins have thrown out for a playoff series since Jack Morris and Scott Erickson.

    The closer, Jhoan Duran, is brilliant. He throws the fastest fastball in all of baseball, which isn't even his best pitch. That would be his curveball, one of the best pitches in baseball (when he's commanding it).

    The bullpen is full of guys who throw 98 MPH and expect reinforcements while already adding Louie Varland, the St. Paul kid who has thrown 100 MPH since converting to relief work.

    Then there's Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober, who have pitched like top-of-the-rotation starters at different points this year.

    I have yet to get to the most important hitter for the Twins this year, 35-year-old journeyman infielder Donovan Solano. Line drive after line drive off his bat has found outfield grass at crucial times this season, and his soft triple to center last week may have ended Cleveland's season.

    And yes, Byron Buxton is injured. He is trying to rehab to the point that he can play center field by the end of September, but it's anyone's guess when and if he'll be available. It would be great fun if he could contribute something, even just a base hit, this October.

    In short, there are a lot of hitters on this club who all do different things, supporting one of the better pitching staffs in recent memory. Key to it all will be Royce Lewis, who sports the charisma and clutch hitting that evokes memories of the one and only Kirby Puckett. He could go 0-75 down the stretch and still be seen as a threat every time he steps in with the game on the line. Home runs or fought-off sliders the other way, whatever you need, Lewis has it.

    There are reinforcements in the event of an ill-timed injury, too. Brooks Lee is among the top 20 prospects in baseball, a line drive machine drafted eighth overall just last year. Austin Martin had such a ranking at one point, too, and looks healthy again as a speedy on-base machine who sprays singles and doubles all over the park. Chris Paddack has been an excellent major league pitcher around his injuries and will join the team in a couple of weeks following a second Tommy John surgery.

    The team played poorly in the first half, and that will put a cap on their overall record when the year is done. But they have looked like a contender since the All-Star break, with the old core of players (Kepler, Polanco) blending into the new core (Lewis, Kirilloff, Julien, Duran). They proved they had enough left-handed bats to cover the loss of Arraez, and with the addition of López, the starting staff is capable of holding down a seasoned and skilled October lineup- they even lead the league in pitcher strikeouts (although it should be noted that they also lead in hitting strikeouts).

    This will be an 85-win team, but that's different from who they are, especially in a short series. This is the best chance the Twins have had to win a playoff game since at least 2010, maybe even 2002. Teams respond well to removing monkeys from their backs; just ask the post-2004 Boston Red Sox, or last year's Mariners. The first game of the AL Wild Card series is October 3rd. All aboard.

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    Twins have played well for most games and have pitching that could win playoff games.  I am still not a big fan of Rocco, but he has become a better manager the past month. He has handled pitchers better and has had batters advance runners.  In a playoff teams only need 3 good pitchers and it appears the Twins do have 3 good starting pitchers. GO TWINS!

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    This article is great and all, but this can be summed up that we have playoff pitching for the first time in 17 years. This major playoff losing streak has been in action due to having guys like Ervin Santana, Boof Bonser, Nick Blackburn, or Carl Pavano pitching in playoff games that they have no business pitching in. There are plenty of guys behind them who would not even be #4 pitchers on contending playoff teams. The playoffs are all about matchups and for the first time the Twins can come in with some frontline pitching in Lopez/Gray. Should be exciting. 

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    26 minutes ago, John Belinski said:

    Twins have played well for most games and have pitching that could win playoff games.  I am still not a big fan of Rocco, but he has become a better manager the past month. He has handled pitchers better and has had batters advance runners.  In a playoff teams only need 3 good pitchers and it appears the Twins do have 3 good starting pitchers. GO TWINS!

    Isn't it amazing how winning changes the outlook of managers. While I agree that Rocco IMO would be in the lower third of manager rankings, getting the influx of players (like Julian, Lewis, and even Wallner) can make any manager look better.

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    I agree but it doesn't appear that the casual fans are coming to the park. Not getting 20,000 fans to a game against another playoff team (Tampa) when our team is heading to the playoffs isn't encouraging. It could affect our team next year, maybe not being able to afford a Polanco and instead playing 1st or 2nd year players.

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    43 minutes ago, DFlow said:

    This article is great and all, but this can be summed up that we have playoff pitching for the first time in 17 years. This major playoff losing streak has been in action due to having guys like Ervin Santana, Boof Bonser, Nick Blackburn, or Carl Pavano pitching in playoff games that they have no business pitching in. There are plenty of guys behind them who would not even be #4 pitchers on contending playoff teams. The playoffs are all about matchups and for the first time the Twins can come in with some frontline pitching in Lopez/Gray. Should be exciting. 

    You left Randy Dobnak off that list. 

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    27 minutes ago, FlyingFinn said:

    I agree but it doesn't appear that the casual fans are coming to the park. Not getting 20,000 fans to a game against another playoff team (Tampa) when our team is heading to the playoffs isn't encouraging. It could affect our team next year, maybe not being able to afford a Polanco and instead playing 1st or 2nd year players.

    Just going down town is an issue for many people since the riots. I’m more than a casual fan and last night was the first game I went to since 9/2019. There are tons of police in and around the stadium which is great. For a beautiful fall Tuesday evening, it seemed fairly bz but no where near 2019. 

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    Some of the previous posters have correctly pointed out that the starting pitching situation gives the Twins a better shot at victory than in the past, but I think that what the author is trying to say is more elaborate than that.  There is something for everybody to like on this team.  Like veterans?  Check.  Like Rookies?  Check.  Like Sluggers?  Check.  Like speedy guys?  Check.  Want lights out starting pitching?  Check.  Want a 100 mph closer?  Check.   LIke unsung heroes?  Check.    There is certainly more.  While previous teams had some of these things as well, this year’s version seems to have more boxes checked and thus more things for a variety of fans to embrace.  Baseball freaks like me don’t need all of those things because we are just die-hards, but the casual fan needs a reason to embrace the team and this year’s team gives them plenty of choices.  It is also likely true that a balanced approach that all of these variables represent is a better way to go into the playoffs than in the past.  Maybe we can win some games.  At least we hope so!

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    1 hour ago, DFlow said:

    This article is great and all, but this can be summed up that we have playoff pitching for the first time in 17 years. This major playoff losing streak has been in action due to having guys like Ervin Santana, Boof Bonser, Nick Blackburn, or Carl Pavano pitching in playoff games that they have no business pitching in. There are plenty of guys behind them who would not even be #4 pitchers on contending playoff teams. The playoffs are all about matchups and for the first time the Twins can come in with some frontline pitching in Lopez/Gray. Should be exciting. 

    All of those teams were capable of winning games.   Blackburn has a career 1.59 ERA in the playoffs and that doesn't include the 2008 play in game where he gave up 1 run in 6.1 innings.   Pavano had a 2.51 career ERA in the playoffs.  Santa was a very good pitcher in 2017.   The 2nd best reliever in the majors, Joe Nathan, blew two of the playoff games.   Those teams were capable of winning games and were in a position to win quite a few of them.   It was very much NOT all on the starting pitchers that they did not.  In fact, notably except for how horrible Santana was in 2017, the starting pitching was maybe the least of the cause for the losing streak.    Even in that game, Santana might have settled down if not for that blown third strike call preceding the Gregorius three run homer.   

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    2 hours ago, FlyingFinn said:

    I agree but it doesn't appear that the casual fans are coming to the park. Not getting 20,000 fans to a game against another playoff team (Tampa) when our team is heading to the playoffs isn't encouraging. It could affect our team next year, maybe not being able to afford a Polanco and instead playing 1st or 2nd year players.

    I wonder what the crowds would look like if the division wasn't so close to being officially wrapped up. There's not a lot of drama left in the central. While the Rays and Twins are both playoff teams, they aren't really playing for much anymore. Especially the Twins. The Twins aren't catching the top 2 seeds so at this point there's very little drama in where their season is going. May see different crowd sizes if Cleveland and Detroit were a more serious threat.

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    22 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

    I wonder what the crowds would look like if the division wasn't so close to being officially wrapped up. There's not a lot of drama left in the central. While the Rays and Twins are both playoff teams, they aren't really playing for much anymore. Especially the Twins. The Twins aren't catching the top 2 seeds so at this point there's very little drama in where their season is going. May see different crowd sizes if Cleveland and Detroit were a more serious threat.

    After last year when they lost to the Guardians in the ALWC, I would imagine Tampa is very focused on beating out Baltimore to attain a first round bye. For example, they are starting Yandy Diaz today even after his, um, incident last night.

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    59 minutes ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

    There is something for everybody to like on this team.  Like veterans?  Check.  Like Rookies?  Check.  Like Sluggers?  Check.  Like speedy guys?  Check.  Want lights out starting pitching?  Check.  Want a 100 mph closer?  Check.   LIke unsung heroes?  Check.

    This team mostly just needs a weirdo IMO. Not much there for the crowd that just wants to see Willians Astudillo's helmet fall off.

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    1 hour ago, Hans Birkeland said:

    After last year when they lost to the Guardians in the ALWC, I would imagine Tampa is very focused on beating out Baltimore to attain a first round bye. For example, they are starting Yandy Diaz today even after his, um, incident last night.

    That's fair, but casual Twins fans don't really care about that all that much. Would've been better had I not mentioned the Rays at all, but I was replying to a statement that this is a series between 2 playoff teams so having a small crowd is disappointing. I think the Twins basically locking their postseason position up makes these being 2 playoff teams not really mean much. The Twins aren't really playing for anything anymore this regular season. The Rays aren't a team with a national star, and the Twins have locked in the 3 seed for all intents and purposes. Beyond just seeing 2 solid to good teams play there's not a lot of drama for a casual fan to get behind right now. Drama draws fans.

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    2 hours ago, Unwinder said:

    This team mostly just needs a weirdo IMO. Not much there for the crowd that just wants to see Willians Astudillo's helmet fall off.

    If that’s all a fan wants to see, I’m glad they stay home!

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    8 hours ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

    Some of the previous posters have correctly pointed out that the starting pitching situation gives the Twins a better shot at victory than in the past, but I think that what the author is trying to say is more elaborate than that.  There is something for everybody to like on this team.  Like veterans?  Check.  Like Rookies?  Check.  Like Sluggers?  Check.  Like speedy guys?  Check.  Want lights out starting pitching?  Check.  Want a 100 mph closer?  Check.   LIke unsung heroes?  Check.    There is certainly more.  While previous teams had some of these things as well, this year’s version seems to have more boxes checked and thus more things for a variety of fans to embrace.  Baseball freaks like me don’t need all of those things because we are just die-hards, but the casual fan needs a reason to embrace the team and this year’s team gives them plenty of choices.  It is also likely true that a balanced approach that all of these variables represent is a better way to go into the playoffs than in the past.  Maybe we can win some games.  At least we hope so!

    Exactly. Turn 5 of Griffin Jax's 10 losses and turn them into wins (making the record 81-65) and the fanbase would be buzzing. 

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    I am, ABSOLUTELY and PROUDLY one of those obsessive fans, and have been from an early age. I'm a South Dakota/Nebraska born and raised fan that watched games on cable at grandma's house when I could, and used to pour over new and saved issues of the Trib, as well as Baseball Digest, The Sporting News, etc. I'm the guy who would sit in a car to listen to static filled games on the west coast late at night. 

    Funny aside, during family get-togethers, when my father and I would begin to talk Twins, everyone would just leave the room and leave us alone for a good half hour or more so we could talk and speculate, LOL.

    While I didn't like 1 or 2 spots on this season's version of the Twins leaving ST, I still really liked so much about this team, and it's construction. I felt they were a legitimate 85-88 win team, and probably still will be. But I really and truly thought they could reach somewhere around 92 wins...MAYBE 94...if a couple things went well and the offense didn't hold us back. So in full disclosure, I'm a little disappointed in this year. They have a very good record against top teams, and were tantalizing "this close" to having an even better record against such teams. (The Dodgers series comes to mind). Which fuels my frustration with just how good the final record for this team might turn out.

    But the team you are in April and May is seldom the team you end of being in August and September, and beyond. And things are starting to align for this club with offense and pitching working hand in hand.

    I think the second half results are more in keeping with what I hoped/expected. And I agree that there is a lot to like here, and some great stories! And for the first time in a while, the baseball gods are smiling on the Twins as guys are mostly healthy, and some minor injuries are healing, and the roster is starting to look more complete than they've had entering the playoffs in a while.

    A few bullet points:

    1] Julien and Wallner have struggled a bit recently. Not a big deal. Everyone has streaks. Julien has still set the table. And both he and Wallner hit the ball HARD and produced the last couple of days, probably coming out of mini slumps. 

    2] I have to disagree somewhat with the best SP 1-2 punch since Morris and Erickson. I think the best 1-2 since Santana and Radke. But why quibble. 

    3] I think I disagree, to some degree, on Rocco as a manager. Now, I don't think he's a great manager by any means. He does some things pretty well within his handling of the team. By his own admission, when he was first brought on board, all he had to do was fill out a lineup card and then sit back. But with the change in the roster, he's also changed how he manages. We've seen bunts, squeezes, and a huge rise in the use of the stolen base. He's growing and adapting. And IMO, doing a better job than I've seen previously. I DO THINK he's been overly aggressive in PH way too early in games. A PH can be a very dangerous thing to employ, especially early in games, as the results of a PH are mixed at best. And when you do so too early, you handcuff your lineup in the late innings if you move to early. But I think he's handled the staff pretty deftly this year. And I think he's still growing and developing as a manager. Especially as the roster has been changing with different players and athletes taking hold of jobs. I don't think that's a bad thing. 

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    16 hours ago, DocBauer said:

    I DO THINK he's been overly aggressive in PH way too early in games. A PH can be a very dangerous thing to employ, especially early in games, as the results of a PH are mixed at best. And when you do so too early, you handcuff your lineup in the late innings if you move to early. But I think he's handled the staff pretty deftly this year. And I think he's still growing and developing as a manager. Especially as the roster has been changing with different players and athletes taking hold of jobs. I don't think that's a bad thing. 

    Agreed. Just like I hated Dobnak and Stashak being left to rot against the Yankees, I would hate to end up seeing Luplow or Vazquez in the 9th down a run because Rocco "went for it" in the 5th inning.

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    This team has beennone of the most ist frustrating and frequently boring teams that past two or three years.  I think with a good manager we could have 5-10 more wins.  Rocco is definitely in the bottom third of major league managers.  He has poor in game management,  is frequently out managed by his opponent, and over thinks key situations.  The team is ok.  But you never know how they will play and manage.  I can see them winning two series but can also see them getting swept in the opening round.  Go Twins

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    Re: Randy Dobnak in the 2019 playoffs: As the Yankee fans were chanting in the sports bar where I watched that game- “Uber Driver!” 

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