Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account
  • Twins News & Analysis

    The Twins Skimping on Correa Presents More Questions Than Answers


    Ted Schwerzler

    From the moment that the Minnesota Twins signed Carlos Correa last spring, they knew it was a one-year deal. For them to extend him on a long-term contract more negotiations were going to need to take place, but unfortunately, they fell short of pushing to a point where it mattered.

     

    Image courtesy of Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

    Twins Video

    Last offseason, Scott Boras approached the Minnesota Twins with a creative idea. For as much as Derek Falvey and Thad Levine suggest a willingness to find interesting ways to get deals done, this was Carlos Correa’s agent throwing the Twins a bone. Despite never before being able to play on the playground with the big kids, Correa was open to a one-year deal that provided him some assurances. He was going to best Anthony Rendon’s previous infield-best contract by average annual value, and he had a fallback option should the year go poorly.

    Early on in the season I talked with a front office source that signified an unlikeliness that the Twins could keep Correa around. It was known this was a one-year deal, and given the number of $280 million as a cap for where they’d present an offer, nothing more seemed likely. Then the offseason came.

    Minnesota operated in a way that watched as pitchers and position players went off the board. They stayed out of other happenings while focusing their dollars on Correa. The problem is that the offer was never raised until the final moment, and even then, by just $5 million. The Twins didn’t view the Giants as the threat they were, thinking their offer was closer to $300 million. Following a counter from Boras and Correa of 13 years and $360 million, it hit Minnesota smack in the face. They were never close.

    It doesn’t matter whether the Chicago Cubs or New York Yankees were ever interested. Steve Cohen even flew Correa out to New York simply to give him $300 million reasons to consider the Mets. The Giants could’ve waited until the last moment to hit Aaron Judge money, but the reality is that they still did so. With the Twins never surpassing the $300 million mark, they were never truly going to be in the running, and ultimately they came up $65 million short.

    Splitting the difference suggests that the Twins were unwilling to go an additional three years and $65 million. That amount is less than $22 million per season, and could be negligible by the time they’d ever have had to pay Correa those dollars. In an industry surpassing $11 billion this past season, Minnesota had their one chance to overcome a label of being cheap or failing to spend, and they failed to make the discussion interesting.

    It’s odd to think that the front office would see a willingness to pay Correa $28.5 million at age 38, but the hard and fast lunacy set in for years 39-41. The reality is that most shortstops start to hit a cliff somewhere in their mid-30’s. Correa isn’t likely to reinvent that wheel, and the back half of that deal was never going to go well. Suggesting they were fine with it, but stopping short of making an offer he’d consider, is an odd stance to take.

    Maybe even worse, as Correa’s medicals fell apart and caused a change of course, the Twins weren’t considered again. Boras went to the last minute Mets and worked out a 12 year deal for $315 million. That’s only $15 million per year extra, and two years beyond where the Twins were. Minnesota’s unwillingness to move into a realm that the shortstop would consider left them in the cold a second time.

    All of 2022, fans heard about how much Correa and his family liked Minnesota and the Twins Cities. When Byron Buxton was unveiling Minnesota’s new uniforms he talked of his former teammate and noted a desire to have him back. Now the front office has their $100 million man without the guy that he publicly suggested needing to be here.

    As things stand currently, Kyle Farmer is set to be Minnesota’s Opening Day shortstop, The revolving door at the position continues, and Farmer couldn’t be further from what Rocco Baldelli opened with last season. Royce Lewis isn’t going to be back until mid-summer at the earliest, and he’s coming off a second torn ACL. Prospect Brooks Lee looks the part of a big leaguer, but he’s thought to be moved off of shortstop at some point. Austin Martin has already transitioned from shortstop, and neither Nick Gordon or Jorge Polanco are going back.

    Baseball has key positions up the middle, and at the one opportunity Minnesota may ever have to lock down the role for a decade, they chose to value pennies on the dollar and cause themselves to again never be taken seriously. Correa may have moved on Minnesota’s contract had nothing else showed up, but the reality is that was never going to be the case, and now the Twins are left trying to figure it out once again.

     

    Follow Twins Daily For Minnesota Twins News & Analysis

    Recent Twins Articles

    Recent Twins Videos

    Twins Top Prospects

    Marek Houston

    Cedar Rapids Kernels - A+, SS
    The 22-year-old went 2-for-5 on Friday night, his fourth straight multi-hit game. Heading into the week, he was hitting .246/.328/.404 (.732). Four games later, he is hitting .303/.361/.447 (.808).

    User Feedback

    Recommended Comments



    Featured Comments

    12 hours ago, howeda7 said:

    Trading Correa would have been fine if we weren't contending. We were in first place. You can't trade him in that case. It's not worth alienating the fan base and the clubhouse to net one nice prospect, and that's all he'd have gotten you.

    We heard the "they are in 1st place" logic over and over.  The fact is they were not close to being a serious contender given the number of injuries prior to the deadline.  They had been below 500 for June and July.  How does that make us a contender? They probably set the franchise back far more by trading all of those assets and not trading Correa than they did by not signing Correa.  You can always spend the $315M elsewhere.  They would have a boatload of prospects that would have been better spent in the off-season on longer terms assets.

    14 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

    What is the front office insight?  

     

    18 hours ago, Ted Schwerzler said:

    Plenty of front office insight on this.

     

    I've waited 14 hours with no response. So... I'm going to ask again. 

    If you have "PLENTY of front office insight", share it on Twinsdaily. You have PLENTY of it. 

    After all, I'm under the impression that Twinsdaily does this sort of thing, providing Twins information to a Twins community.

    Why would Twinsdaily keep this front office insight from the readers. I spend time on this website, I haven't read any front office insight, the real stuff, words from the people involved. 

    Don't give me unidentified sources providing a sentence to someone from the Athletic. 

    When you say it this definitively... people may believe that there is "PLENTY of front office insight on this". 

    Since we currently have owners of this website providing articles of varying interpretations of the events, I will hashtag the owners @John Bonnes @Seth Stohs @Nick Nelson @Brock Beauchamp @Parker Hageman and wait for this "Front office insight". Hopefully not much longer. 

     

    15 hours ago, mnfireman said:

    They signed Vazquez (a better signing than Contreras IMO) and they were tied to both Rodon and  Swanson. Which of those contracts did you want them to best?? I don't think either ages well. Spending money just to spend money is foolish. 

    Instead of focussing solely on Correa they could have worked to sign one of the other SS instead.  

    15 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

    An 8/$306 offer should have been the first and last offer IF the Twins actually wanted to sign Carlos Correa. This determination should have been made by the end of the All Star Break last July. Otherwise, the Twins should have found a great deal to unload Correa for a top prospect. The ability to look around, be aware, and think forward is based on experience. The Twins leadership team are struggling right now.

    I'm curious if a trade with Miami was contingent on the Twins signing Correa because it would free the team from counting on a few of their prospects. The lack of awareness within the front office was displayed most clearly by Dave St. Peter in his comments just after the season ended. 

    I also wonder if trading Urshela was thinking they would get Correa

    15 hours ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

    as things sit today, this team is worse than the team that went 78-84 with all the same injury questions.

    This is the bottom line for me. Whether or not we got Correa, are we improved with the moves made? No, we are not.

    16 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

    So, pocket the money? Ugh. 

    Use it for extensions of the young's.

    As for Correa, once the Mets got involved, any offer from the Twins would be beaten by Steve Cohen.  Luxury Tax is not a real thing in his mind.

    42 minutes ago, Squirrel said:

    This is the bottom line for me. Whether or not we got Correa, are we improved with the moves made? No, we are not.

    Even if they did sign Correa, and it’s still possible the Mets back out and Boras/Correa comes hat-in-hand, and Falvine look like geniuses (point made by@KirbyDome89 maybe the Twins priced the injury into their offer) this is a worse team.

    Farmer is a significant step back from Urshela in the extra infielder position and Vázquez is a massive fielding improvement from Sanchez but a slight step back with the bat. The Manfred ball isn’t going anywhere, so they flushed $11m down the toilet on 4th outfielder who hits left handed and they still need to carry Kyle Garlick on the 26. It’s still a worse team

    and now to actually make improvements they have to swing trades, which puts the “sustainable success” thing at risk.

    1 hour ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

    Even if they did sign Correa, and it’s still possible the Mets back out and Boras/Correa comes hat-in-hand, and Falvine look like geniuses (point made by@KirbyDome89 maybe the Twins priced the injury into their offer) this is a worse team.

    Farmer is a significant step back from Urshela in the extra infielder position and Vázquez is a massive fielding improvement from Sanchez but a slight step back with the bat. The Manfred ball isn’t going anywhere, so they flushed $11m down the toilet on 4th outfielder who hits left handed and they still need to carry Kyle Garlick on the 26. It’s still a worse team

    and now to actually make improvements they have to swing trades, which puts the “sustainable success” thing at risk.

    Someone else said it … they are putting a lot of eggs in the ‘remain healthier, rookies stepping up and 2nd years taking steps forward’ basket. If all that happens, we may end up with a better record and even a playoff spot, BUT … that’s an awful lotta eggs in one basket and it still doesn’t make us a better team. And no trade for a significant player is not going to involve the future sustainability as you said.

    The FO has put us in an untenable corner by not using FA along with development and trades. We can’t keep relying on the future to get us through. I see so many advocate for prospects being the answer, and then complain when they aren’t. Prospects and young players eventually gave us 87 … how long ago was that now?

    1 hour ago, Squirrel said:

    I also wonder if trading Urshela was thinking they would get Correa

    I don't think so. I think they felt Urshela was not an option at SS, even as a backup, and they were looking to move Miranda in as the regular 3B. Trading Urshela was more about rebalancing the roster to open a spot for a player who could legit play SS regardless of what happened with Correa. I don't think they saw Urshela as being worth $9M as a backup, either, and he would have been a backup at the start of the season, since the only spots he could get PT are at 3B (where he's behind Miranda now), 2B (everyone is behind Polanco), 1B (behind Arraez & Kirilloff), or DH (where he probably doesn't hit enough, and the Twins prefer to rotate guys through there anyways)

    I don't necessarily agree with the move, but there's a logic behind it from a roster construction standpoint, especially if they're feeling confident in Brooks Lee being ready sooner rather than later, Austin Martin pushing for time, and Royce Lewis coming back healthy and ready by midseason, along with Edouard Julien. (of course, this is the opposite of their decision-making (so far) on the OF, with the Gallo acquisition)

    I think it's fair to question the unwillingness of the FO to not increase their offer for Correa when the Mets offer ended up being so much closer to where the Twins had been. Could the Twins have gone 12/$315? Probably, even if stretching the contract 2 extra years doesn't help them in the same way it does a team like the Mets. Could they have bucked it up to 10/$300M? Also probably. Should they have tried to stretch? I think so, but...would that have gotten it done...no one knows. Would that have been a mistake?

    William Goldman's best advice on the film industry applies here. "Remember, nobody knows anything." The appropriate emphasis is on "knows". We can speculate and conjecture, but nobody knows anything. Byron Buxton doesn't really know to what degree Correa wanted to come back here, so his comment is opinion. I mean, sure if the Twins offered MORE years and more dollars than anyone, he probably comes back. But even that isn't certain, and we don't KNOW it, and neither does Byron. Maybe we needed to beat it by $10M. Nobody knows if the Giants skittishness over a medical issue is reasonable or not. Nobody knows if Correa will be healthy for the next 5 years, the next 10 or the next 2.

    16 hours ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

    2 years 30m seems like a significant delta

    I posted this elsewhere and am posting it here as well.  Taken from a Buster Olney paywall article:

    Early in the offseason, the Twins made it clear they wanted Correa back, and according to industry sources, they offered $285 million over 10 years. When you factor in state taxes and the length of the proposals, rival evaluators note that Correa is actually making markedly less annually in his deal with the Mets than he would've gotten with the Twins, let alone the Giants.

    But Correa has always been a big-stage personality, someone who gravitates toward the brightest lights -- in this case, Cohen's lights, in New York.

    Correa's final decision was not about money.

    2 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

    Use it for extensions of the young's.

    As for Correa, once the Mets got involved, any offer from the Twins would be beaten by Steve Cohen.  Luxury Tax is not a real thing in his mind.

    Who? Who are your extending? And, that only goes so far. 

    Putting aside CC, they haven't signed anyone other than Donaldson to real money for more than one year. Not even second tier players, let alone elite players. The money not spent there goes to the owners. It's not like they have a budget, and if they don't spend it give it as bonuses to staff, or save it for next year. They keep it. Need more yachts.

    1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

    Who? Who are your extending? And, that only goes so far. 

    How about starting with Miranda, Gray, and Mahle?  If any of Kirilloff, Larnach, or Wallner next year?  Maybe Lewis, Martin, and Lee the year after that.  There are possibly better ways to spend money than signing one guy (who might have a medical problem).  Just my opinion and I know you think I'm wrong! ☹️

    4 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

    How about starting with Miranda, Gray, and Mahle?  If any of Kirilloff, Larnach, or Wallner next year?  Maybe Lewis, Martin, and Lee the year after that.  There are possibly better ways to spend money than signing one guy (who might have a medical problem).  Just my opinion and I know you think I'm wrong! ☹️

    Mahle, Kiriloff and Larnach haven't been healthy for two years. Miranda? Sure, if you want to go to maybe 10 million a year. I'd extend Gray, but given this market, he'll want 4 years for at least 20 million a year .... hint....the Twins won't do that for anyone, let alone a pitcher.

    As we know, Boras gave the Twins a shot. They were right to tell him to hike. I’m tired of greedy free agents and spoiled billionaire owners and unhappy Twin fans who want the team to splurge. No need. Let’s win the right way. Invest the money in affordable housing and cancer research. Let the big money teams embarrass themselves trying to buy a Series. That’s corruption. Let’s play Moneyball, not Monopoly. That is the Minnesota way. And I’m all in. Our society needs to grow up. 

    2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

    Mahle, Kiriloff and Larnach haven't been healthy for two years. Miranda? Sure, if you want to go to maybe 10 million a year. I'd extend Gray, but given this market, he'll want 4 years for at least 20 million a year .... hint....the Twins won't do that for anyone, let alone a pitcher.

    If Gray doesn't like the offer, send him packing at the trade deadline.  I heard a rumor that Cincinnati has a minor leaguer named Chase Petty???

    10 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

    I posted this elsewhere and am posting it here as well.  Taken from a Buster Olney paywall article:

    Early in the offseason, the Twins made it clear they wanted Correa back, and according to industry sources, they offered $285 million over 10 years. When you factor in state taxes and the length of the proposals, rival evaluators note that Correa is actually making markedly less annually in his deal with the Mets than he would've gotten with the Twins, let alone the Giants.

    But Correa has always been a big-stage personality, someone who gravitates toward the brightest lights -- in this case, Cohen's lights, in New York.

    Correa's final decision was not about money.

    bright lights of Houston huh?
     

    Annually yes he’s making less, but tax-wise it’s 1% difference between NY and MN and total contract is 10% higher. Correa nets 8.5 to 9% more in NY aggregate.

    Also, to your point of not just about the money, Mets won 101 games last year, and signed Verlander and Nimmo. Good chance of winning a WS as a Met, Twins? Much lower 

    On 12/22/2022 at 8:22 AM, Squirrel said:

    Instead of focussing solely on Correa they could have worked to sign one of the other SS instead.  

    Except that I think outbidding the deals the other three got would have been even sillier than offering Correa more. 

    On 12/21/2022 at 6:51 PM, tony&rodney said:

    First, Falvey has a tough job. Second, Gleybar Torres, others have been returned in July trades. I know that would have been tough, but many of us simple fans thought Buxton, Larnach, Kepler, Polanco, and others were day to day in late July. One would hope the team knows more than the public about the health of their team, and the resulting potential to win games. I guess we really don't know what was going on with the injuries, but is it possible to contend with the team the Twins put on the field in August and September? Maybe the injuries and collapse were just unavoidable and unpredictable; bad luck. I wanted the Twins to re-sign Correa, but somehow it seems like Falvey should have had at least some control of the situation. Whatever, it is done. It's in the past, it does not matter.

    Falvey's job is no tougher than 20 other GM's, he's just really bad at it.

    We believed Buxton, Larnach, Polanco etc. would be available down the stretch because they told us that. If they knew that was not the case and it was a lost cause, then why did they trade for Mahle, Lopez and Fulmer? Clearly they believed they could win the division.

    Trading Correa while leading your division, especially when you've lead it almost all year and there's no great team chasing you is just not done. They'd have been torched by the fans and media and had a mutiny in the clubhouse and rightfully so. 




    Create an account or sign in to comment

    You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

    Create an account

    Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

    Register a new account

    Sign in

    Already have an account? Sign in here.

    Sign In Now

×
×
  • Create New...