The Twins Should Extend Odorizzi, Not Gibson

I want to point out the first bullet point on the list.  Gibson is just as durable as Odorizzi so its not like Odorizzi has a leg up on him in the category. Saying Odorizzi has less innings doesn't necessarily translate to less pitches.   Gibson has only pitched one more MLB game in his career than Odorizzi, 159 to 158 (that is games started, Odorizzi has technically pitched 161 games if you count non starts).  Odorizzi is notorious for reaching his "pitch count" early in the game.

Since the article focuses on 2014 to 2018 and Orodizzi's 28+ games lets compare Gibson for the same stretch.  Odorizzi threw 832.2 innings in 152 games.  That is about 5.47 innings per game.  Gibson has thrown 3 less games in that stretch but 876 innings, about 5.88 innings per game.

EDIT:  Gibson has thrown 15,432 pitches to Odorizzi's 15,317.  Gibson has thrown 115 more pitches. 

I also don't understand the logic behind sending a better player back to AAA because of some contract obligation. First of all, I'm limiting those obligations as much as possible, again especially to pitchers. But if I have to cut bait with a guy with a contract to make room for a rookie who is ready to cut his teeth, I eat the salary and trade for the best low minors prospect I can get. It's part of why I want some "flexibility" with my payroll budget.

 

So sure, sign him to a team-friendly contract through 2021 if you have minimal faith in your five B grade pitching prospects who are all on the cusp, and if you can't or don't want to sign Pineda and/or Gibson to retain their services, and if for some reason you think the FA market won't bear fruit, and if you think Graterol and Alcala and Wells and Enlow are mirages, and if you doubt anyone will part with a better solution in exchange for your surplus player assets on the 25-man or below. If all that happens, I'm cheering for Mr. Sixel's new Portland franchise in 2020.

Maybe you do that. The bottom line is that given how long it took the Twins to eat Phil Hughes’ salary, it is clear Jim Pohlad doesn’t easily do that. And it’s ultimately his call, as I’m sure the Hughes decision was.

He's a good arm. The goal is to collect good arms and maximize their positive impact. The flip side of those poor numbers during his third trip through the lineup is that he is extremely good his first two times through.

 

The notion being stated by some here that "pitchers like Odorizzi are available to the Twins every offseason" is wild to me. You've all seen this team's outcome with free agent pitchers... right?

Just because this team hasn’t picked good free agent pitchers, doesn’t mean they weren’t out there.

As Mike said, if the Rays - or any other team - thought Odorizzi was going to continue with a sub 4 ERA, it would have taken more than Palacios to get him.

In principle, committing to your # 4 or 5 starter long term makes zero sense to me. This is the slot you should be trying to constantly upgrade.

3.35, 3.69, 4.14, 4.49.

Exactly what leads anyone to think Odorizzi is capable of reversing this trend?

The smart money is an ERA of about 4.8 this year.

Here is an interesting trend for each pitcher.  Odorizzi is losing velocity at 28 and Gibson has gained velocity, likely due to his adjustments in the middle of 2017.

Odorizzi 4seam velocity + ERA

2016 - 92.50MPH   3.69 ERA

2017 - 91.91MPH   4.14  ERA

2018 -  91.45MPH   4.49  ERA

Gibson

2016 - 91.83MPH   5.07 ERA

2017  - 92.62MPH   5.07 ERA  (3.76 ERA in 2nd half)

2018 -  93.64MPH   3.62  ERA

Totally separate note that you didn't comment about... I don't buy Odorizzi as a solid sell candidate either. The Twins gave up very little to get him for 2 years. Why would anyone give the Twins value for less than 1 year of Odorizzi?

Good point. Generally, assets that are illiquid sell for a discount. So kudos go to the FO for signing a liquid (tradeable) asset for a bad contract discount (Palacios). 

I'd agree that Odo at 3/30 makes him less liquid if you don't eat the "premium" portion of the contract at the time of a sale. If his intrinsic (WAR stuff) worth is $6M and you sign him for $10M, you're asking for trouble, especially with multiple years of course.

That's why the team needs to be pretty comfortable with their bet that a guy like him gives you a performance advantage over a guy like, say, Thorpe or Gonsalves, and over the next FA candidate for 2020.

It's a heck of an argument. I dunno if I buy it or not, but it's a great argument and definitely some out of the box thinking. It's a really good discussion to have if you're going to continue to try and be more forward-thinking with your pitching staff, I think.

3.35, 3.69, 4.14, 4.49.

Exactly what leads anyone to think Odorizzi is capable of reversing this trend?

The smart money is an ERA of about 4.8 this year.

This might not matter as we’re possibly losing all of Gibson, Pineda, and (maybe) Odorizzi to free agency next year, which means we’re gonna need someone, because I don’t like the idea of placing all of the pressure on Berrios, Romero, Graterol, Thorpe, Stewart, Alcala, Mejia in 2020.

If you’re skeptical of Odorizzi being able to turn things around, then perhaps signing Julio Teheran next offseason makes more sense, he’s one year younger, had better 2018, and has a better overall track record.

That seems like... over-simplistic analysis. I noted in the piece why I think Odorizzi is capable of reversing his downward trend, and has in fact already begun to do so.

 

 

I don't think losing 1 MPH over 3 years is all that meaningful. Gibson was also "losing velocity at age 28." These things can ebb and flow. When it comes to outlooks for arms, I'll bet on the guy who's 3 years younger.

 

(Also, guess who had the higher K-rate this year -- and every year -- despite that velo disparity?)

It’s a simple game. Throw ball. Hit ball. Catch ball.

I guess I would say a 28 year old losing velocity sure sets up red flags. I’m sure the Rays noticed. I’m sure other teams noticed. By itself, maybe not a big deal. But coupled with being a 2 time through the lineup guy and an ERA increase that has coincided with the velocity decrease it seems the only one who benefits from a long term deal is Odorizzi. What is the upside for the Twins? The long shot chance that he does a Gibson type reversal?

Again, you’re talking about a 3 year commitment to a guy that you SHOULD be trying to replace. That’s not how you build sustainability. It’s how you build mediocrity.

This might not matter as we’re possibly losing all of Gibson, Pineda, and (maybe) Odorizzi to free agency next year, which means we’re gonna need someone, because I don’t like the idea of placing all of the pressure on Berrios, Romero, Graterol, Thorpe, Stewart, Alcala, Mejia in 2020.If you’re skeptical of Odorizzi being able to turn things around, then perhaps signing Julio Teheran next offseason makes more sense, he’s one year younger, had better 2018, and has a better overall track record.

Then it would probably be a good idea to get the Romeros and Mejias etc into the bigs so they will feel less pressure and have more experience in 2020.

What it boils down to again is competitiveness. If you expect the Twins to contend in 2019, you probably roll with the veterans until you either fall out of contention or decide the veteran isn’t getting the job done.

If you don’t expect to contend, you need to give starts to inexperienced guys to evaluate them and plan for the future.

That seems like... over-simplistic analysis. I noted in the piece why I think Odorizzi is capable of reversing his downward trend, and has in fact already begun to do so. 

 

 

I don't think losing 1 MPH over 3 years is all that meaningful. Gibson was also "losing velocity at age 28." These things can ebb and flow. When it comes to outlooks for arms, I'll bet on the guy who's 3 years younger.

 

(Also, guess who had the higher K-rate this year -- and every year -- despite that velo disparity?)

1 MPH over 2 seasons.  1/2 MPH per season.  Is that going to reverse or is he on track to be a sub 90MPH guy?  I would bet on the guy that has 2MPH on the other and is coming off a good 1.5 year stretch opposed to someone who was below average over the last 2 years and getting worse.

I am having a hard time contributing Odorizzi's struggles to "one bad year"  when it appears to be a downward trend.  FIP is increasing into the high 4, low 5 range, groundballs have decreased steadily over the last 4 seasons while flyballs have risen 4 consecutive seasons.  His 1.44 HR/9 over the last 3 seasons is 17th worst, slightly better than guys like Ricky Nolasco (1.45) and Bartolo Colon (1.57).

I disagree with Nick completely. I think he got it backwards.

Gibby righted some things mid way through 2017. His numbers since then are far improved and there is enough of a track record to assume he is just a different pitcher now. His recent year and a half stats are what should be looked at, and his numbers from earlier years when he struggled skew his value downward.  This may be a case where stats lie and I think this article takes Gibby's current record out of context. 31 is not old for a major league pitcher. A three year extension is warranted. 

Odo is a #4 starter. He could be extended, sure, but he has not shown the high upside that Gibby has shown. And by 2020 there may be other guys better on the FA market by then.  What we need is to have 3 starters locked up, Berrios, Gibby and a third, going into 2020 while we see if Romero, Thorp, Gonsalves and a couple other AAA arms can push their way into the rotation. 

Plus Gibby is family and does a lot of stuff for the Twins off the field. He took over one promotion after Doze was dealt.