The Twins’ Playoff Odds, and the Week Ahead in the AL Central and Wild Card Races

The twins have been playing alot better since the Allstar game  ...

It doesn't matter who we face in the playoffs  , just stay focused and play the game and ( the bats come through  ) see what happens  ...

Based on last week, everyone but the Orioles and Twins are backing into this thing. But I still fear the Astros the most

I think the Twins will be playing Texas in the 1st round. The team I worry about is Tampa, though Baltimore would be very tough too. Whoever wins the AL is probably going to play Atlanta, who I believe to be the best team in the majors.

If the Yankees get on a hot run, they actually have a good chance of making the playoffs as the last wild card.  They have 6 games against the Blue Jays, and the Rangers and Mariners play each other 7 times.  If the Yankees win 5 or 6 against the Blue Jays, they will be in the thick of it.  They only need to catch the Blue Jays, and either of the Rangers or Mariners, so being they play each other one has to lose.  

It is not likely, but they are hot right now and nothing would shock me less than the Yankees going on a hot streak to end the season, face us in the first round and sweep us. Of course if the Yankees lose even 2 against the Blue Jays that will make it very difficult to catch them, and even if they do win all 6 they still will need wins against Diamondbacks and Royals.  

34 minutes ago, Trov said:

If the Yankees get on a hot run, they actually have a good chance of making the playoffs as the last wild card.

I'll take the other side of that bet

In a short playoff series it will depend on starting pitching and it appears Twins have 3 good pitchers to pitch in playoffs. We have at least a 50% chance of winning playoff series which is better odds than past years.

Anybody but the Astros in round one would be fine with me.

Should be interesting playoffs.  The Twins will be able to start their best three in Lopez, Gray, and Ryan in a short series.  Let's not forget though that whomever we face they will be starting their best pitchers as well.  The Twins have been playing mediocre ball most of the season.  They will probably enter the playoffs not only with the poorest division winning record amongst all the division winners but also the poorest overall playoff team record of all teams this year.  I do think thus is the year we at least win a playoff game and MAYBE advance to the second round.  Last playoff win was 2004.  Wow.  Go Twins!!

I’m more concerned about who we play in the 2nd round.

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

I'll take the other side of that bet

I would not bet even money, but for right odds.  My main point is that they are in an interesting situation, that they could push themselves into the picture because of who they play and who else plays each other.  Unlike Cleveland who does not play us, they cannot control most of their own fate.  However, Yankees do have a chance to control most of their own fate.  It will take an insane run, but they can force the issue.  I think it unlikely, but if Cleveland still had 6 games against us we would be talking about that situation more. 

Two weeks ago, Houston outscored Texas 39-10 in a three-game sweep on the road. This week, they lost series to both the A's and Royals.

Last week Texas outscored Toronto 35-9 in a four-game sweep on the road, then proceeded to be swept in Cleveland while the Blue Jays recovered to sweep Boston.

Seattle is 6-12 after a 25-6 run.

Only the Twins, Orioles and Devil Rays are playing consistently well. From what I understand, as seeds 1 and 4 the Orioles and Rays would have to meet in a division series. Pretty nice from the Twins' perspective.

The only issue, then, is a first-round bye. Houston leads the Twins by 5 games, but the Twins own the tiebreaker. The Astros host Baltimore for three beginning today and must yet travel to Seattle and Arizona, both in a heated battle for a playoff spot.. Also, Seattle and Texas have seven matches against each other in which a 4-3 game outcome is quite plausible. If the Twins take at least two in Cincinnati, this will get very interesting with the Angels, Oakland and Colorado yet to play.

3 hours ago, Whitey333 said:

Should be interesting playoffs.  The Twins will be able to start their best three in Lopez, Gray, and Ryan in a short series.  Let's not forget though that whomever we face they will be starting their best pitchers as well.  The Twins have been playing mediocre ball most of the season.  They will probably enter the playoffs not only with the poorest division winning record amongst all the division winners but also the poorest overall playoff team record of all teams this year.  I do think thus is the year we at least win a playoff game and MAYBE advance to the second round.  Last playoff win was 2004.  Wow.  Go Twins!!

 

What you say about the records is true; however, if you look at the past 2 months you get a different picture.  The Twins appear to be peaking at the right time.  They are fortunate to be in the AL Central, otherwise, it might not matter.  That said, I don't think any of the wild card teams want the Twins.  Between our top starters, hot rookie bats and reinforcements arriving for the relief pitchers, I'm pretty bullish.

1 hour ago, BH67 said:

The only issue, then, is a first-round bye.

There is a 0.8% chance of a first round bye. Not impossible but very unlikely. They have to win 5 more games than the Astros in 12 games. If the Astros go 6-6 the Twins need to go 11-1. Once the Twins clinch (likely against the Angels) we will know if there is any chance at all.

3 hours ago, Whitey333 said:

Should be interesting playoffs.  The Twins will be able to start their best three in Lopez, Gray, and Ryan in a short series.  Let's not forget though that whomever we face they will be starting their best pitchers as well.  The Twins have been playing mediocre ball most of the season.  They will probably enter the playoffs not only with the poorest division winning record amongst all the division winners but also the poorest overall playoff team record of all teams this year.  I do think thus is the year we at least win a playoff game and MAYBE advance to the second round.  Last playoff win was 2004.  Wow.  Go Twins!!

 

They have actually been playing pretty good ball the last 6 weeks or so since Buxton and Gallo were injured or playing less.  Better bats up and down the lineup.  

I hope Toronto can be the 5 seed which will put 3 East teams in one side of the bracket.  It will also probably mean that NYY will be knocked out of the postseason as Tor has 6 games against both TB & NYY.  I am hopeful that by the end of the week the Twins will have clinched the division (3 vs Cinn & 3 vs LAA while Cle has 3 vs KC and 4 vs Balt).

Of the West teams, I believe that the Twins have a better that 50/50 of winning first round and an good chance (somewhat less than 50/50) of winning the 2nd round.

5 hours ago, Whitey333 said:

Should be interesting playoffs.  The Twins will be able to start their best three in Lopez, Gray, and Ryan in a short series.  Let's not forget though that whomever we face they will be starting their best pitchers as well.  

 

Possibly not.  Given how close the race is for that last wildcard spot, the Astros, Jays, Mariners, and Rangers may be all hands on deck the last couple of regular season games just to make the playoffs.  It's plausible that the last wildcard seed will have to burn through their ace pitchers at the end..  

7 hours ago, Trov said:

If the Yankees get on a hot run, they actually have a good chance of making the playoffs as the last wild card.  They have 6 games against the Blue Jays, and the Rangers and Mariners play each other 7 times.  If the Yankees win 5 or 6 against the Blue Jays, they will be in the thick of it.  They only need to catch the Blue Jays, and either of the Rangers or Mariners, so being they play each other one has to lose.  

It is not likely, but they are hot right now and nothing would shock me less than the Yankees going on a hot streak to end the season, face us in the first round and sweep us. Of course if the Yankees lose even 2 against the Blue Jays that will make it very difficult to catch them, and even if they do win all 6 they still will need wins against Diamondbacks and Royals.  

It's close to impossible.. per Fangraphs the Yankees have a 1/200 chance to get a WC slot as of today. Not impossible, but...

7 hours ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Narrow the focus to the present.  Be intentional. Just concentrate on what you can control. One day at a time. One game at a time. One pitch at a time. One play at a time.   

Eyeroll

8 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Outscored opponents 102-58 since September 1st…….last 16 games.

Playing at home.

Kirilloff - Polanco - Lewis healthy…….Kepler - Solano - Julien - Walner - Jeffers all in place……..CC & Buxton as our 2 weak links.

Taylor - Castro - Farmer for depth pieces.

Varland - Maeda - Funderburk added to the Pen.

I like our chances in the first series!

Not to mention Lopez, Gray and either Ryan or Maeda (not so sure he’ll be in the pen yet - Ryan has to get back to where he was early) as the starting pitchers.  Yes, the opponents will have their best starting but Inlike the Twins’ chances the first two games.

9 hours ago, Trov said:

If the Yankees get on a hot run, they actually have a good chance of making the playoffs as the last wild card.  They have 6 games against the Blue Jays, and the Rangers and Mariners play each other 7 times.  If the Yankees win 5 or 6 against the Blue Jays, they will be in the thick of it.  They only need to catch the Blue Jays, and either of the Rangers or Mariners, so being they play each other one has to lose.  

 

If the Rangers and Mariners played pretty much even, that doesn’t let the Yankees in if they swept all 6 vs the Jays. One of those teams would have to take a nose dive. And you don’t think Toronto wants to improve their postseason chances, not to mention the D-backs are in their own crazy WC race? Yankees are not going to the postseason