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In a different era, Jordan Montgomery, Blake Snell, and Cody Bellinger would have been the crown jewels of a free-agent class. Montgomery, a recent playoff hero; Snell, a Cy Young honoree fresh off his second award; and Bellinger, a comeback kid who showed flashes of the dynamic, tantalizing athleticism that made him a superstar by age 23. Any of these three players would bring tremendous joy to whatever organization signed them—likely leading their decision-makers to anoint them as saviors in whatever specific overtones they saw fit. But here we are halfway through January, listening to silence on whether any of these men will join a franchise soon.
It’s simply a different time now. While those previous descriptions are accurate enough, each player owns an obvious downside. Montgomery strikes out fewer batters than you’d like; Snell’s relationship with the strike zone is a real Ross-and-Rachel thing; and Bellinger’s under-the-hood numbers speak more to mere goodness than to greatness. The flaws matter more these days. We know—or think we know—the ideal production shape of a player at each man’s position, and that shape is specific, and these guys come in different shapes. Good teams rarely risk acquiring a player outside of the mold, except at discounted prices, and these Scott Boras clients won't come at a discount.
So: is this a good thing?
I think a lot of sports are wrestling with the analytical revolution and its consequences. The NBA can’t contain its own offense, the NFL can’t start theirs, and you are probably already well-versed on the aesthetic downside of modern MLB games. Efficiency is not always in the best interest of the game or the fans, who each hold unique expectations on how that game should look and feel. Some trimmed fat is genuinely good—thank god head coaches realized that punting on 4th and short is for cowards—but this rapid movement toward playing the same style of the same variation of the same concept is… boring. It gets stale. A team of guys striking out at a 27% clip only reinforces the old stereotypes that block prospective fans from tuning in and enjoying a ballgame.
I don’t think it's a death sentence for the sport that teams are showing reservations about a few players who are (admittedly) flawed. We don’t need to force the Mike Hampton contract on teams simply because we dislike the process of cost-conscious team-building. What would be nice, though, is if each team had the means to reasonably sign players of Snell’s caliber without needing to stare down the maw of a lengthy rebuild if he falters ever so slightly. Someone likely would have snatched up all these men long ago, if the game wasn’t wholly focused on conservatism and skeptical analysis.
I suppose I just don’t like what the stalemate says about the player-franchise relationship. Teams seem to assume the worst about each player, and while that may be the safe move, doing so is lame, to steal a term I used in my prior table setter. I don’t know what exactly would create a better system, but I know this one isn’t the best it could be.
How are you feeling about this slow free-agent market? What would you do to ameliorate the problem? Let's talk medium-temperature stove, baby.
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