Servin' Up Ervin

With Boston, Texas, SF, LAD, Toronto, Detroit, NYY and other contending clubs out there, this should be a sellers market.  The Tampa Bay starters will go first, but Twins should have offers if not multiple offers for Santana, Nolasco, and Gibson.  Only Gibson rates to be here and effective in 2018-2019.  Take the best offer and sell.  Expect the Twins to get a couple of mid-level prospects for Santana, maybe a better lower level prospect and an org filler type.  Nolasco should bring more of a lottery ticket type(even if the Twins pick up part of the contract, and I suspect they might have to). If you can move Santana's contract, picking up $5 million of next years Nolasco salary is not a big deal as payroll should be down due to large number of youngsters on the team.  Sell high on the assets you have(this includes position players) that will not be in the plans after 2018.

I think the Twins need to chip in some salary in the deal and buy better prospects in the deal.

There's no point in trading a Santana unless you're going to get a good return, because the Twins are going to need starters next year and, as you noted, that's the going rate for said starters.

I would not trade him unless you got a really good pitching prospect in return. The Twins can be decent next year and simply don't have enough starters or potential starters. If we trade him we will scouring the bargain bin next year for starters.

Santana's slow starts are pretty easy to explain:  He's from the Dominican Republic.  Early season in Minnesota and anywhere north of the Mason-Dixon line is gonna be cold.  As the temps warm up, so does Santana.

Too early to even think of trading Ervin.  One really good start may cause reminiscing of last years 5-1 finish, but that was last year.  I'd have to see 2-3 more starts similar to this last one before I'd gauge the market.

Subtracting Santana while still having Nolasco and Hughes on the roster seems like a pretty bad idea to me.  Granted, Hughes is coming off surgery, but making a decision on those 2 seems like a higher priority to me.

I would hold onto him until a few deals are made and a few teams start freaking out when their rivals make moves. If we can extract a top 50-75 propect, sure.

I am ecstatic that we have Jay, Gonsalves, Jorge, and Stewart all in AA. But they aren't all going to be up here and pitching well next April. Someone is going to flame out, someone is going to get hurt, another may make it a year later than we all thought, etc. So I am hesitant to move Ervin just to move him.

Said another way, we are likely going back to the free agent market next offseason if we trade Ervin. How does his 2-27 compare with what guys will sign for? Seems like a reasonable commitment to me and with all the young talent coming up another 3-4 year deal is not ideal.

Uh, his slow start last year in Minnesota was in July.  And his worst month by ERA this year so far is June. I'd guess weather has very little to do with explaining these performances, it's probably just the standard variation inherent in all player performances -- a 4.00 ERA pitcher will have some months at 5.00, some months at 3.00, etc.

Uh, Santana was just coming off an 80 game suspension last year.  I believe he had a couple MiLB starts as a tune up.  I also think his last 7 starts of last year were more euphoria than just 'getting warmed up'     

If the Twins are reasonably certain he can continue to perform as a number 4 starter over the next two years, they need to keep him.

If they look at a large group of similarly aged and performing pitchers, I think that they will find that far less than 1/2 of those pitchers can continue as a number 4 as the progress into their age 34 and 35 seasons. The Twins would need to see something special in Santana that would suggest that he will decline at a slower rate than typical and avoid injury more common with older pitchers.

Hope he stays. A delight when he's dealing. Has potential to run the table the rest of his starts second half.

My initial thinking was that interest in Santana would be modest, but in actually looking at the rotations of contenders . . . there is a substantial amount of need at the back end of those rotations, particularly if they want some coverage in the event of injury to an existing starter. 

I don't think teams will want to offer a top prospect, but I'd be happy with several mid-level prospects, particularly guys in the lower minors with good upside. 

No way would I trade Santana. An offer would just have to be totally lopsided in our favor to consider. And his contract is fair.

Many have overly optimistic views of our young arms, but how many will even make the majors, and is there even one that will be as good as Santana. The minors are just a step above the St Paul Saints, granted Kintzler pitched for the Saints and is having success at the major league level, but not many make it. Hamburger is back pitching for the Saints. 

The Twins will need a veteran arm to lead the younger guys for the next 2 years and Santana is that guy. There will be 2 or 3 rotation guys gone by next spring and hopefully a rotation that will give up a chance for a much better record. Keep Santana to lead that rotation.

If Santana is worth a couple midrange prospects, wouldn't Santana and a couple mid range prospects be worth a top prospect?

Sweeten the pot.

Massage the deal(s).

What would you guys think of this potential trade? 

Ervin Santana to the Rangers for RHP Luis Ortiz.

20 year old RHP in AA.  Top 100 prospect (#63 overall) and Rangers #4 prospect.   He's had a few injury problems but profiles as a #2.   Rangers need starting pitching help at least in the short term. 

I'd think that if you could get a guy who profiles as a 1 or 2, you'd have to go for it.   And, part of the benefit in trading Santana is the spot it opens up in the rotation to ensure that Berrios, Duffey, May have a spot.  I'd be totally happy with a 2017 of Berrios, Duffey, May, Gibson, and either Nolasco/Hughes.  Moving towards playoffs in 2018 with a rotation of Berrios, Duffey, May, Gibson, and whoever emerges first of Gonsalves, Stewart, Jorge, Jay. 

Don't be swayed by the term top 100 prospect. History is littered with failed top 100 prospects.  Matt Gamel, Tomas Neal  Nick Hagadone types excite you?  Nick Blackburn, Phil Humber, Guerra? Near ready top 100 prospects that fizzled. Santana is what he is. A couple of high ceiling young top 100 prospects one could get excited about.  More cup of coffee players, not so much.