Is it Time for Twins to Move Louie Varland to the Bullpen?

1 minute ago, Riverbrian said:

You might be right. Or maybe not. 

There has certainly been an inconsistency with Varland in the rotation. 

But I have to ask. 

If Richards can be refined. Couldn't Varland?

In my humble opinion... Varland has the better stuff and it isn't that close in my opinion. 

With me... It's can you hang zeroes and how many can you hang. I'm still hopeful that Varland can hang a zero more than an inning at a time and I'm willing to bet that we will need him to start for us before the year is up. 

However... I think at this point in the season. He can move between pen and rotation rather seemlessly. 

Varland can absolutely be refined, but in a short period of time it's about pitch distribution. And in LV's case it's about refining his approach to use his 98+ fastball as much as possible in a game. and that's for about 2 innings every other day. 

If Louie would change his mindset and embrace a relievers role I think he could be excellent for many years. He has really good stuff. He seems to struggle getting past 3 - 4 innings on the mound. The bullpen is where he belongs. Hopefully he himself will come to that realization.

100% YES...lights out as a reliever.  He needs to face the facts that he is a relief picture.  Not a bad way to make a living.  Be proud of your accomplishments and park it out in the pen for the good of your team.  

9 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

And their dial has them within 4.5 games of the best record in baseball while missing Lewis, Correa, Buxton, Ryan, Wallner, Julien, etc. for significant amounts of time. How much better do you honestly think they could be if their dial were turned up to the place you think it should be?

Since the gap between them an the best record stems directly from losing to the teams ahead of them the answer is really not much better. 
 

And Louie had 3 bad starts against 3 of the teams ahead of them. If they had got good starts and won all three of those games and everything else had worked out exactly as it has. The Twins would be 74-53, a half game shy of the best record. So in a way you're both kind of right. 

I don't think Louie was quite as good as a reliever as some might remember.  I remember some hard contact for outs.

However, he was still pretty good, and should easily be better than a few of the guys in the pen now.  I'd probably wait to make sure teams don't start just teeing off on Zebby in his next couple of starts.  But I'd absolutely try to get Varland ready for a bullpen role in September as long as he's not needed in the rotation. 

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

His 2nd time through an order OPS for his career is .837. 3rd time is 1.173. First time through is .678. 
This year it's .667 the first time then jumps to .933 and then 1.308 the 2nd and third times.

He can't get through the order more than once. Never has been able to consistently at the MLB level. I fully expect him to be moved to the pen at some point in September, and open the 2025 season there. It's where he's best used. Only thing holding them back now is that they have 3 rookies in their rotation and likely very little hope that either Paddack or Ryan are coming back to the rotation. Morris in AAA is the only other rotation option they have, and he's only made 2 starts in AAA. They need Varland at the top of his starter game for a while still. Even if the pen is the best spot for him. But he's only good for 2 to 3 innings. Once through the lineup. No more than that if you're trying to maximize Louie.

The stats that you are quoting mainly comes from times he is trying to be a SP. Therefore this includes the secondary pitches that he is using that isn't working for him, I never said I supported him coming back to be part of the rotation. I definitely stated I didn't want him pitch 3Xs through the order & back only as long relief/ spot starting. Spot starting is exactly how he has been used at the MLB level since he was sent down this season. Which hasn't been bad and at times very good while giving the rotation a well-deserved breather. I believe he could be better when he secured in that role using primarily pitches that work for him. I'm not against him pitching in shorter stints (actually the stress would be on long relief that would go 1X through the order) but is more needed in the role I mention to maximize the relieving the stress from both the BP & rotation. 

I think after Zebby gets 2 more starts we move Varland to the pen if Zebby continues to pitch well.  And Festa does too.  Varland could still go back to the rotation if needed the first few weeks he’s in there and then if needed the last week or two in the rotation we can just do a bullpen game or two to finish out the season.  

2 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

 If Varland was used earlier to take the pressure off the rotation & BP. IMO we have many more quality innings from both & Ryan would be still with us. 

 

So now you're saying that Ryan's injury and BP meltdowns are  from being overused. Because that is what you're saying, correct? Ryan's injury could have happened on the 3rd pitch of the year just as easily. BP meltdowns are simply a lack of quality depth. 😳 

Varland's issues as a starter don't play particularly well as a reliever either. He's probably better than Okert or Richards, but that's an incredibly low bar to clear. Neither of those guys belong on playoff rosters, or probably MLB rosters at this point.

I don't think Varland as depth is really much of an upgrade over Boushley ect. I also don't think he'll necessarily stop the bleeding in the pen or be the plug/savior others seem to think he'll be either. 

I see Glen Perkins when I watch varland. 

6 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

No idea, but he's clearly better than at least two, if not four, current players. That's the point for me.... Get the best players in Minnesota and see what happens. We're not going to agree, clearly

Get the best players on the roster ...

We finally agree , I emphasize  totally  ...

6 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

I'm not happy with them standing pat at the deadline either, but this conversation isn't about the deadline, it's about Louie Varland moving to the pen. You disagree with their chosen strategies to try to win (and so do I, as you know), but you chose to state it as them needing to try to win now. If they need to try to win now the logical conclusion is they haven't been trying to do that before. But, as the numbers I presented show, their strategies haven't been all that catastrophic. 

And not trading for better players at the deadline is a very different thing that putting their #6 starter in the pen when they've already lost 40% of their rotation in the last month. It's not the end of the world if they put him in the pen now and have to try to stretch him back out later if needed. But it's also not outrageous that they're holding on a little longer before they do. Injury isn't their only concern. I know we're all excited about SWR, Zebby, and Festa, but there's a very real chance one of 2 of them hit a wall soon, or get figured out, and fall apart.

And as the numbers I provided before show, they aren't falling apart. In terms of blowing leads they've been as good as just about anyone in baseball. The pen hasn't crushed them by any means. I know it's been a tough week, but let's not pretend they've just been blowing leads left and right and Louie would've somehow saved them. They've been quite good at holding leads. Like, really, really good, actually.

It's great that we've played as well as we have through the injuries that we've had but it's also okay to say we should have two to three more wins this month. Would varland have helped in the pen in one or two or all three that's hard to say but probably... 

My biggest question is, it seems that there's a fairly high amount of confidence that varland would improve our bullpen... What's the drop off like between varland and whomever would be our fill in starter if need be? Because if that gap is smaller than our confidence level in him out of the pen then he should be in the pen and we should roll with Dobber or Morris or even have a pen day with varland starting. With how bad Varland has been the second and third time thru the lineup I'd say dobnak/Morris could do just as well in a spot start. Let's get him throwing gas in the  7th/8th inning now. 

This is a GREAT time to bring this topic up.  With the Twins bullpen in complete self-immolation mode we are 2-weeks too late to bring Varland up and put him in the pen.  He's a power arm who can be used in high leverage situations if he's throwing one or two inning stints.

How many late game leads do the Twins need to blow before this front office has the caffeine from their morning coffee kick in???  The twins went out and got a complete non factor for their bullpen at the deadline (Richards) who Rocco is rightly reticent to use in a high leverage situation.  Honestly, as far as a starting pitcher is concerned, Dobnak would probably do just as well as Varland.  But Varland COULD be a difference maker in the pen.  And to make this move NOW in no way puts Varland out of contending  for a starting rotation spot for 2025.  

DO IT !!!

Varland  is in need of a good change up or another pitch that he needs to develop as others have mentioned. However, at this point in the season the Twins are in need of an additional reliever that has good stuff. At this point If he wants to be on the major league  roster he will have to be a reliever or he will be laboring away in the minors at  St Paul.

While it might not be what ideal for Louie because of his desire to be a starter it does not fit the needs of the team.  I remember when Santana first came to the Twins he work in the bullpen for a couple of years before he was made a starter that turned into one of the best pitchers that has pitched in the major leagues.   I think it would be beneficial to both sides for him to come out of the bullpen for the rest of the season.  It will take a lot of the load off of others in the Bullpen so that they can remain fresh to the end.

During the off season he can work with someone to pick up an additional secondary pitch that could turn him into a more effective starter, or a great reliever.

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

I won't be mad if they call him up for the pen next week when he's eligible. It'd be a reasonable thing to do. I'm not saying it wouldn't be. I'm saying it's also reasonable to wait.

The Twins are going into September with 3 rookies who they need, not hope, but need to pitch the best they've ever pitched in their lives deeper into a season than they've ever pitched before. Just to get to the playoffs. Relying on a 4th rookie who started the year in A+ and is 22 years old to also do that would be a massive gamble. There's a very real chance Dobnak and Morris can't get through an MLB lineup once let alone 2 or 3 times. And a bullpen game could be catastrophic with 3 rookies who aren't likely to be going more than 5 innings a start in your rotation.

And I don't play the "if they'd just done this they'd have X more wins while nothing after that would've changed" game. Cuz it's not how reality works. Anything you change in the past would change what happened after. Would they have changed some Ls to Ws? Possible. Would they have also changed some Ws to Ls? Also possible. Making a different decision doesn't automatically equal positive outcome then and the same results after.

Like the idea of just doing a bullpen game if Varland is up and in the pen and somebody gets hurt. Now you've had to extend your bullpen in the game your starter went down. Follow that up with 3 of your starts (depending on who got hurt) coming from rookies being extended further than they've ever been in a season. Then pitch a bullpen game just to turn around and have another 3 starts by those same rookies? Sure, you may have made the decision that won that 1 bullpen game while absolutely blowing up your bullpen and sacrificing numerous other games along the way just so Varland can be in the pen and pitch 10 innings the rest of the year. 

It would be very reasonable to put him in the pen next week. It's also very reasonable to keep him in AAA as your 6th starter for a few more weeks as insurance.

I guess I'd say more wins are a higher probability than more losses if you put someone in that gives you a better chance to win... Which it sounds like most people think varland would be... I mean could we say that we'd have more wins if buck and c4 were healthy? Not for sure but a higher chance than we'd have more losses right? I feel the same with varland. 

As for your bullpen game scenario... Maybe you're right. Maybe we'd just be better with rolling the dice with Dobnak and see if he can get thru 3 or 4 then varland 2 or 3?

In all honesty, if we get to that point, especially if it's Ober or Lopez that goes down... We better just be in a place on offense to out score the other team. That would be a scary (in a bad way) scenario!