Joe Mauer Should Be a First Ballot Hall of Famer

If he would have retired after his last concussion at catcher, he would be in already, most likely as a first ballot guy, but because he tried to play out his contract, and did well, but not HOF level he is a question mark.  Not sure how voters look at things now, but in the past if a guy retired due to injury/illness, they would extrapolate his career as if he would continue to play like he did when retired.  Two main guys come to mind.  Kirby Puckett and Sandy Koufax.  

Puckett played 12 years, put up a 51 bWAR and retired at 35 due to basically becoming blind.  Koufax played 12 years, put up a 49 bWAR retired at 30 due to injuries.  Koufax was at the peak of his career coming off of 5 dominate seasons and was considered one of best when he retired.  Puckett was not top guy at the time, but still putting up great numbers and both were expected if they would have kept going would have put up typical HOF numbers.

Joe played 15 seasons, but really only 70 more games than Puckett, due to injuries and playing catcher first part of career.  Joe put up very similar numbers, other than HR being a bit more for Puckett, but not a ton.  Both retired at 35.  The big difference is Puckett was still putting up career highs in OPS, Joe was putting up career lows. Puckett was putting up OPS+ above league average, Joe was at league average.  So voters last saw Puckett top of game or near it, Joe was average. 

I agree Joe should be in HOF, but the fact he ended his career looking normal at an offensive position will look bad. I put Koufax in there to compare to Johan for similar reasons.  Johan did not make it past first ballot, but his career numbers look very similar to Koufax, minus the shutouts because of era they played in. 

Johan had 12 years pitched, higher bWAR than Koufax.  Johan had a good 5 year run at similar age.  The difference is Koufax at the time was considered best in game when he retired due to injury, and Johan tried to come back several times. If a player cares about HOF if they are over 30 and on path to it, if they get injured they should retire due to it.  Voters do not seem to take players trying to fight through injury at end of career like they do if someone ends career for it. 

I agree he should be in the Hall of Fame but voters have been very stingy voting catchers in on the first ballot. It's only happened twice - Johnny Bench and Ivan Rodriguez. They didn't induct Gary Carter, Mike Piazza, Yogi Berra or Carlton Fisk in on the first ballot and they were all better than Joe.

Joe didn't achieve any career milestones (3000 hits, 500 HR, etc) and he doesn't have a ring. I also heard he once drank milk from cows who had been treated with bovine growth hormone.

57 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I don't think it's happening first ballot. I saw one ballot from Adam Rubin online, he voted for David Wright and Chase Utley, no Mauer.

https://www.si.com/mlb/yankees/news/new-york-yankees-gary-sheffield-first-hall-of-fame-vote-2024-matt9

Surprising, I know, an ESPN guy plugging Phillies and Mets players.

David Wright, but not Mauer? Talk about east-coast bias.

Utley is an interesting case: had a massive start, but really faded at the end...but his big WAR numbers depend on high level defensive stats, which is a little complicated for a player that never won a Gold Glove. Admittedly, GG voting is messed up (Mauer not winning at 1B is case in point) but usually if someone is one of the best of their generation at their position they'll collect at least one along the way. The lack of "counting" stats (games played, hits, etc) is going to hurt Utley as well. He's an interesting case and should be debated. But voting for Utley and skipping Mauer seems again, coastal bias.

Catcher is one of the premium positions & the most demanding. It's a shame that the catcher position is so insignificant in some people eyes & are so poorly represented in the HOF. I am so proud of what Mauer has done as a Twin & a Minnesotan. There's no doubt that Mauer is a HOFer & deserves to be inducted in the 1st ballot but I'm afraid he might have to wait.

Living in Brazil I don't follow much baseball other than the Twins. I have heard of Molina but never watched him play until recently, I caught him on a U Tube video. I was totally amazed on how he was able to throw runners out while on his knees & w/ great frequency, great feel for the game, great general on the field, handling pitchers & positioning players (he was always 100% prepared before each game). There are some that question his right to be in the HOF because he doesn't have enough WAR. If they want to use total WAR as a standard, they'll have to drastically recalculate defensive WAR higher.

I really admire Mauer & say he's maybe the best hitting catcher of all time. But if I had to choose between Mauer & Molina, I'd pick Molina because at catcher defense trumps hitting. 

12 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

I really admire Mauer & say he's maybe the best hitting catcher of all time. But if I had to choose between Mauer & Molina, I'd pick Molina because at catcher defense trumps hitting. 

Even if I knew that Mauer was going to miss a bunch of time and have to quit catching at 31, I'd still take Mauer every single time.

Molina was an excellent defensive catcher and remained a quality defender for his entire career, which is remarkable. But Mauer was a quality defender (even though he wasn't as good as Molina) and was so much better offensively that it's just not close. Molina's best seasons at the plate are akin to Joe Mauer's average seasons at the plate, and Molina didn't have very many good seasons as a hitter. Molina was only above league average 7 times in 19 seasons; Mauer had ONE season where he was below league average, and that wasn't until his skills had been lessened by concussions. Molina may have made 10 all-star games, but he only deserved about 3, maybe 4. Mauer deserved all 6 of his.

Having a quality defender at catcher who can also hit is a massive competitive advantage. Having an elite hitter at catcher is amazing. Molina played 400 more games and only had 50 more hits. Mauer played 400 fewer games and drew 400 more walks. Molina played on better teams, but Mauer was the better player. Bigger peak, longer peak. Better career, even if it was shorter. They're really not close and shouldn't be comps.

(Posey v Molina is more interesting; Molina played a LOT longer, Posey had a much higher peak. But they're much more comparable as players than either is to Joe Mauer, who should be a first-ballot HoFer)

Comparing Mauer to Molina is just dumb. Molina spent his entire career behind the plate. 

Joe will get in to the HOF in time.  He was never a great defensive catcher and his arm was always a question with low catch stealing numbers. You can blame some of that on the pitchers of course. He won 3 gold gloves but that was when it was more of a popularity contest than anything else.  Rafael Palmeiro won a gold glove in 1999 playing 1st base in 28 games and DH the rest.

Catching is demanding. Think of it as if a starting pitcher pitched every third day and that is a bad example. The physical demands are cumulative. Catchers are really underrated. Dusty Baker caught a ton of flak for continually using Martin Maldonado over others in past years and over Diaz this past year. Now Houston wants to bring back Maldonado. Do people really believe that Baker was just stubborn and used Maldonado against all other advice and numerical arguments. I'm pretty certain why Baker kept rolling the old guy out there - it was the voices of his coaches and the pitchers. Baker was an outfielder and he most certainly deferred to his pitching coach and the pitchers on who to use behind the plate.

Joe Mauer was a terrific defensive catcher, not that much different than Molina. We don't need to split hairs on Molina, Mauer, and Posey. If three outfielders and infielders from 2000-2020 can get into the H of Fame, so can three catchers.

Terry Ryan once stated that Joe Mauer would have made the All Star team as a 19 year old if they had moved him off of catcher. The Twins had an incredible run of success, despite not winning playoff games, during Mauer's career. Mauer belongs on the ballot on the first ballot.

23 minutes ago, darin617 said:

Comparing Mauer to Molina is just dumb. Molina spent his entire career behind the plate. 

Joe will get in to the HOF in time.  He was never a great defensive catcher and his arm was always a question with low catch stealing numbers. You can blame some of that on the pitchers of course. He won 3 gold gloves but that was when it was more of a popularity contest than anything else.  Rafael Palmeiro won a gold glove in 1999 playing 1st base in 28 games and DH the rest.

Did you actually watch Mauer play baseball? His arm, which was good enough to play D1 college football, was fine. He was terrific at working with pitchers. The only reasonable criticism I've seen of Mauer's catching was his height made it difficult for him to frame low pitches.

1 hour ago, darin617 said:

Comparing Mauer to Molina is just dumb. Molina spent his entire career behind the plate. 

Joe will get in to the HOF in time.  He was never a great defensive catcher and his arm was always a question with low catch stealing numbers. You can blame some of that on the pitchers of course. He won 3 gold gloves but that was when it was more of a popularity contest than anything else.  Rafael Palmeiro won a gold glove in 1999 playing 1st base in 28 games and DH the rest.

Asserts facts not in evidence. Mauer led the league twice in caught stealing % and really only had one bad year in throwing guys out. He's was excellent at it in his first few seasons, slid back to around average, had a bad season and led the league again in his last season behind the plate. I'd say his arm was just fine.

BTW, he did pretty well at blocking the plate too: 1 Passed Ball every 197 innings. (Molina was 1 every 190) And before anyone starts presuming that Mauer only caught pitcher with great control, his pitchers uncorked a WP 1 every 33 innings...exactly the same as Molina.

2 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

Based on the historical comments on this site, I'm not sure Mauer would meet the 75% threshold if ONLY Twins fans voted for the HOF. 

I absolutely expect him to get in, but I'm expecting it to take some time and I'm fully expecting TD to erupt in outraged indignity once the results are revealed showing Mauer still has a long way to go. I mean, the anger will be real, but will anyone really be surprised if he isn't behind East Coast favorite newbies Utley, Wright or even Jose Reyes? Or long time elite players like Adrian Gonzalez and Matt Holliday? That doesn't even include East Coast holdovers like Jimmy Rollins, Andy Pettitte and Carlos Beltran or the remaining steroid era players who still have their die-hard supporters. Add in the near-locks Beltre, Helton and Wagner and he's going to struggle to find room on most voters top-ten lists.

Carlos Beltran seems fairly similar to Mauer in terms of candidacy. They played premium defensive positions, had a fantastic peak of their careers, but didn't meet those 'counting stat' milestones. Beltran didn't even reach 50% of the votes last year and it was much weaker class. I think we should be hoping for something like 40% vote totals this year, but expect even less.

I'll happily eat crow if it turns out otherwise though.

I agree he won't get the recognition to get elected his first year  , how long it takes I'm not sure , maybe third ballot  ....

I'll supply the crow and eat it with you , if im wrong  , I need a good reason to shoot one  , the scavengers  are everywhere looking for food here in Northern country ...

Mauer certainly deserves to be elected on the first ballot, but I'll be shocked if that happens. Due to the usual Hall of Fame "tradition" and politics, plus what I think is a bias against small market clubs like the Twins, he'll end up waiting a year or two. But man, I hope I'm wrong and he makes it to Cooperstown the first time around. Players like David and Wright and Chase Utley going in ahead of Mauer? That would be criminal!

3 hours ago, Doctor Wu said:

Players like David Wright and Chase Utley going in ahead of Mauer? That would be criminal!

Chase Utley is as qualified as Mauer, if not moreso. Take off your Kasota Gold colored glasses.

This is the real reason why Mauer will not get inducted on the first ballot - he's not the best player on the ballot. He's not even one of the top 5 players on the ballot. What will be strange is two players who weren't better than Mauer (Helton and Wagner) are the top two returning vote getters and the most likely to get inducted along with Adrian Beltre - who will get in on the first ballot.

13 hours ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

Here's an interesting comparison. . . 

Puckett had a higher BA but Mauer had a higher OBP.  Puckett had a little more power but Mauer won three batting titles to Puckett's one.  OPS+ is identical.  Mauer's peak was higher but Puckett's career was good until the end.  Except for the championship teams involved, they are more similar than different.  

Puckett got in on the first ballot with 82% of the vote.  I think Mauer will either make it in or be tantalizingly close his first year.  

I addressed this in my comment above, they are very close in many things, however, Puckett ended his career still hitting above average and retired due to becoming basically blind.  Joe's last several years he was league average hitter.  I commented about how a person ends a career voters look at, because if you look at pure stats, I always point out Johan had about as good of stats, if not overall better, than Koufax, but Johan did not even get the 5% to get a second vote and Koufax was first ballot, because Koufax ended at top of game due to injury and Johan tried to make several comebacks so retired not at top of game.

5 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Chase Utley is as qualified as Mauer, if not moreso. Take off your Kasota Gold colored glasses.

This is the real reason why Mauer will not get inducted on the first ballot - he's not the best player on the ballot. He's not even one of the top 5 players on the ballot. What will be strange is two players who weren't better than Mauer (Helton and Wagner) are the top two returning vote getters and the most likely to get inducted along with Adrian Beltre - who will get in on the first ballot.

Chase Utley is not a hall of famer. Less than 2000 hits, never placed higher than 7th in MVP voting, no defensive prowess, and he's not a prolific postseason hitter. 

The only reason he's going to be close is because he played in big markets for good teams his whole career.

Great Guy in so many ways. Just not a First Ballot entry.  It had always been that First Ballot had to be a "Cut-Above"! Recent years Baseball Writers have lowered the standards so he might make it under today's process.

34 minutes ago, NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin said:

no defensive prowess

That's just flat out wrong. From 2004-2010 Chase Utley was clearly the best fielding 2B in the game. He's this generation's Bobby Grich and he might get overlooked unfairly just like Grich.

30 minutes ago, MGM4706 said:

Great Guy in so many ways. Just not a First Ballot entry.  It had always been that First Ballot had to be a "Cut-Above"! Recent years Baseball Writers have lowered the standards so he might make it under today's process.

I don't see that at all. If anything it's harder to get into the Hall of Fame by way of the writers than ever.

20 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Chase Utley is as qualified as Mauer, if not moreso. Take off your Kasota Gold colored glasses.

This is the real reason why Mauer will not get inducted on the first ballot - he's not the best player on the ballot. He's not even one of the top 5 players on the ballot. What will be strange is two players who weren't better than Mauer (Helton and Wagner) are the top two returning vote getters and the most likely to get inducted along with Adrian Beltre - who will get in on the first ballot.

Utley is certainly qualified, but he never won the number of batting titles that Mauer did, nor play a position as difficult at catcher. I agree that Beltre will get in on the first ballot. Remember those days when many of us Twins fans were urging the Twins to sign him when he was a free agent? Early in his career he was more of a glove-first player, but then he found his hitting stroke ... and then some!

While I wouldn't be offended if Mauer got in or even got in on the first ballot there is more of a negative case to be made than is being presented here.  The first thing I see talked about frequently is Joe Mauer did this all as a catcher.  Joe only played catcher for 50% of his time in the majors.  While the concussion accelerated his movement to 1B/DH he was already transitioning prior to the concussion with over 1/3 of his games in 2013 being at 1B/DH.  I downloaded the top 20 JAWS catchers from baseball reference and added a column manually for how many of their PA were at Catcher (PAC) and how much of their total % was at catcher (PAC%) and found that nobody in the top 20 JAWS ranking player a smaller amount of their games at catcher.  Closest comp in the top 20 was Gene Tenace, a guy who transitioned to 1B and only played 56% of their games at Catcher and the HOF said that wasn't good enough.

If you look past his time at catcher and comp him to 1B as well then there are a number of folks with the same WAR or better that are leftie, low power, and high OBP guys like John Olerud, Will Clark, and Keith Hernandez that the hall has left out.  Here is a direct comp to WIll Clark:

WIll Clark is not in the HOF.  If you want to comp Mauer against another player who was reduced from a Catcher to First then let's look at Joe Torre who played 40% of his time at Catcher but then transitioned to 3B and 1B.  

Joe Torre made the hall only as a manager and again the HOF said that putting up these kinds of stats while playing only part of your career at Catcher is not enough.

I don't think he is HOF worthy but agree that he is at the cusp and legit arguments can be made either way.