Its DaShawn Keirsey Jr. Time

4 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

In all honesty... I would load up on left handers for two reasons. Bring in 3 or 4 more. 

A. Rocco and the front office wouldn't be able to hand cuff enough right handers to sit more than 4 left handers on the roster. This would force them to let some of our young lefties establish an actual track record against lefties. Gain experience... Get better.  

B. And this is the biggest reason why I'd load up on left handed hitters.

If you really want to play the platoon split to your advantage... forget about these Julien/Farmer handcuffs. Focus on the real disparity in the platoon split advantage. 75% of pitchers are right handed... if you want to play the advantage... load up and attack that 3 to 1 advantage. Load up on lefties for the 75% percent and take your chances against the 25%.

Committing limited dollars to Margot and Farmer for 25% of the pitchers and committing limited roster space to Margot and Farmer to face 25% of the pitchers is bad allocation. Margot and Farmer don't hit right handers that well and they haven't for a fairly long career but they get roster spots end up facing more right handers than left handers just so that 25% is covered. 

If you want to get the most out of the platoon split. More left handers... lots of them. It's a 3 to 1 advantage. 

How do you get the most out of platoons if you get rid of all/most of your right-hand hitters?  Sounds like your idea for getting the most out of platoons is to not have any.  Where Margot is concerned, do you make a decision based on 45 ABs against LHP this year or do you look at career numbers?

Lots of different views on DeShawn  keirsey ...

Keirsey was drafted in 2018 and had some hype and decent number's in a very small sample to start his professional career  ,,, injuries robbed him of development  , 2022 he finally overcame his injuries and has developed into a very capable player the past 2 plus years staying healthy  ...

I don't care if he's 27 and not a prospect , I care that he çould help the  team  , I've watched him since he has been healthy and producing and  he has the ability to hit and play defense at the major league level ...

Put Him in coach he's ready to play sometime this season ...

He is undervalued but could be a good player ....

He's the type of player who, if added to the 40, will be the first one cut later. Save that for later in the year when he's truly needed. Not to sit on the bench and pinch run twice a week in May.

Is he honestly going to give you more than Bubba Thompson, available on waivers right now for a bag of balls (or Margot)? I'm skeptical. I think he's your typical AAAA CF. There's real value in that depth, and he's worked hard and deserves his cup of coffee, but now isn't the time. Maybe next OF injury...

7 hours ago, USAFChief said:

Why?

He's 27. 6th year of MiLB. 7th year since being drafted. 1500 MiLB PAs. 

He doesn't need everyday playing time for development. 

The sole consideration is if he's an upgrade, even a minor one, over current Twins 4th and/or 5th OF spots. And a 40 man spot, of course. 

That's all that matters. 

He isn't an upgrade on what they have in LF or RF. Kepler owns RF and Kirilloff or Larnach or Castro will play LF. He's not a RH platoon bat. He's not a DH. He's a backup CF and he's not going to play if Buxton is healthy. If Buxton is hurt they could use his glove in CF.

8 hours ago, Greglw3 said:

I can’t believe that a .907 OPS AAA hitter wouldn’t be better than Margot.

I can. I would expect a AAA player to lose 200 points of OPS moving up to MLB. Margot has been a 700 OPS hitter for a few years now. That's basically even.

8 hours ago, danielp19653 said:

I'm all for it, call him up and move E-Rod to AAA while you're at it, if 2-3 weeks from nor Keirsay isn't cutting it than swap him for E-Rod, gives E-Rod time at a slightly higher comp level and every day opportunity in CF and brings up the best option we have at the moment on the AAA roster.

Swapping minor league players every 2 weeks reeks of desperation. If you're only going to give a player a 2 week trial then you don't have any faith in the player.

Its time to find out if DK is an MLB’r.  There are only silly excuses for not giving him an opportunity. Erod needs a AAA promotion so we can see him challenge better pitching.  Why is the FO so adverse to finding ways to promote guys that are obviously ready. 

7 hours ago, USAFChief said:

"Basically even??"

Margot is .200 points from .700.

And he's been a .700 hitter once since 2018.

I don't really care about Kiersey much. But you don't get to invent ****.

The problem is that Margot has been used equally against LHP and RHP this year.  Margot had a 665 OPS against LHP last year, 875 in 2022 and 753 in 21.  Lewis will be back soon which means Castro will be used primarily in the OF.   I guess it comes down to Larnach's turf toe.  If Larnach can play the OF, Margot's role could/should be a platoon against LHP.  That role would be at least as valuable as having Keirsey share time with Castro / Larnach.

A lot of the commentors now....... gave me the thumbs down when I wanted Keirsey over Margot before the start of the season!  Margot really never had the bat but his glove was solid.  For Keirsey, his glove is superior to Margot and his bat may be similar.  A big difference is that his speed would be a great asset off the bench!

8 hours ago, USAFChief said:

"Basically even??"

Margot is .200 points from .700.

And he's been a .700 hitter once since 2018.

I don't really care about Kiersey much. But you don't get to invent ****.

Margot's last three seasons have been .696, .700 and .686. That's a .700 OPS hitter. His glove has slipped this season which is probably the larger concern. If Margot isn't good enough defensively for CF he's not really worth a roster spot. That doesn't mean Keirsey is the answer. The answer would be obtaining a real RH platoon bat for the corner OF, not someone with a predicted 700 OPS against lefties.

55 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Margot's last three seasons have been .696, .700 and .686. That's a .700 OPS hitter. His glove has slipped this season which is probably the larger concern. If Margot isn't good enough defensively for CF he's not really worth a roster spot. That doesn't mean Keirsey is the answer. The answer would be obtaining a real RH platoon bat for the corner OF, not someone with a predicted 700 OPS against lefties.

Not just the last three years, he is .687 for his career and the only year he has been under .675 was his 1st year in the league.  He is above average against LHP which is only role he has in the playoffs.  People keep saying they want a team constructed for a playoff run.   There are better ways to build a team If we had the Dodgers budget but that's not the case.  Expecting the twins to have bench players that are well above average players is a nice goal but unreasonable when it becomes an expectation.

There is some merit in seeing what Keirsey can do.  His defense and speed on the basis would be an asset if he can be a league average offensively.  That certainly was not the case with Contreras or Stevenson but there is a chance Keirsey's swing holds up better against major league pitching than those two.

Margot was a mistake.  Admit it and move on.  Keirsey could help the Twins, especially if Buxton goes down.  What are the odds of that happening? (think about this for a moment--how long do you expect Buxton to "be healthy)?"   

Promoting Keirsey to the Twins and E-Rod to St. Paul doesn't "reek of desperation."  It promotes a player who could help the big club if given a specific role and moves a player tearing up AA to AAA.  I think it's a normal and logical progression.

Speaking of non-desperation, Lewis will be coming back in the not too distant future and Brooks Lee will be moving Kyle Farmer out of a roster spot within a month and a half.  Margot should just be DFA'd.  Maybe they can get something for Farmer in a trade.  

I'm not sure anyone expects that Kiersey Jr. is going to set MLB on fire and lead the Twins to Valhalla. He bats left-handed, strikes out, and is not in his early 20s which bugs some people. Can the young 27 year old be a better player than a current Twin, say Margot or Larnach? That bar isn't particularly high. An injury to either or to Buxton should increase his chances. At some point the Twins will have a need to find out if Kiersey Jr. is a possible contributor to their major league team and we don't have to worry about his age or other aspects of his game.

Julien is not really a good comparison but he was seen as having too many flaws to regard for the roster last season. Julien had many weaknesses but wound up leading the Twins along with a couple of others into the playoffs. (Noted that the most serious hole, defense, has been patched only to see the bat develop an ugly illness this year.)

20 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Maybe this sounds crazy (it may be) but I would go to Emmanuel Rodriguez first, before Keirsey. No doubt Keirsey is having a good year, but Rodriguez is also having a hot start to the season and is also already on the 40 man.

I don't love that both are left handed hitters, just for roster makeup. But that's the lean I would take right now.

 

They won’t rush Rodriquez this year when there are viable options ahead of him. But EROD should be in position for a call up next year if he keeps hitting well this year. A promotion to AAA this year would be a big step.

25 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

Speaking of non-desperation, Lewis will be coming back in the not too distant future and Brooks Lee will be moving Kyle Farmer out of a roster spot within a month and a half.  Margot should just be DFA'd.  Maybe they can get something for Farmer in a trade.  

I really doubt Brooks Lee will be promoted that quickly unless there is an injury to a starter. They're definitely not going to make him a platoon RH bat like Kyle Farmer, especially when he's better as a LH batter.

32 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Expecting the twins to have bench players that are well above average players is a nice goal but unreasonable when it becomes an expectation.

The White Sox have Tommy Pham. He's a better RH platoon bat than Margot. Detroit has Mark Canha and he's also a better option. Are you saying the Twins can't have nice things like the White Sox and Tigers have?

15 minutes ago, terrydactyls said:

A "predicted 700 OPS" only by you.  I've not seen any historical evidence showing this to be a true statement.

Let's take a look at some the stats of some current AAA players who have long track records in MLB

Akil Baddoo 860 OPS in AAA, 680 OPS in MLB (all 2024)

Travis Blankenhorn 850 OPS in AAA, 560 OPS in MLB (2023)

Trayce Thompson 865 OPS in AAA, 580 OPS in MLB (2023)

Ben Gamel 960 OPS in AAA, 716 career OPS in MLB

David Dahl 980 OPS in AAA, 560 OPS in MLB (2021-23)

Jake Lamb 930 OPS in AAA, 750 OPS in MLB (career)

Jose Rojas 920 OPS in AAA, 580 OPS in MLB (career)

A 200+ point drop in OPS is common moving from AAA to MLB. Keirsey would actually be pretty lucky to have a 700 OPS in his first taste of MLB. With adjustments over time he could probably provide a 700 OPS at the peak of his brief MLB career.

18 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Not to mention Austin Martin has superior fielding metrics to Keirsey at CF in the minors. Yes. The Austin Martin who has been shredded for his defensive shortcomings.

The expectation Keirsey (who was among the worst CF's in the league last year in terms of RF/9) will be a good CF at the MLB level is highly dubious.

Is RF/9 a useful measure that teams use? How do the different ball in play contexts impact varying RF/9? What inning sample is necessary for RF/9 to be relevant? It is an opportunity stat so a pretty large sample must be necessary. For outfielders, would PO/9 be more telling of range?

Assuming it is valuable here are there career RF/9 in centerfield. 

Keirsey 2.46

Martin 2.49 (minors only with majors it is 2.46)

Rodriguez 2.53

I wish they could find room to give him a shot.   He's an upgrade in LF for pretty much everyone overall, even if he hits below average simply due to defense.   I think he's at least earned a look.  That said, I don't think he'll get one unless there is an injury.

The tough part is finding that spot.   He's not a replacement for Margot.  Not just because Margot is right-handed, but you don't want to call Keirsey up just to face lefties, setting him up for failure.    Nope, Margot's replacement is Austin Martin.   And, Castro is a better option in LF against LHP anyway.

While he could replace Kirilloff in the lineup if you want to send him down, that's not great for the roster since Kirilloff should primarily be playing 1B or DH against RHP.   I don't know who a good option to replace Kirilloff is in general.   It would just mean more ABs for an equal disappointing and struggling Santana at 1B or moving Miranda over there against RHP.  Again, though, not really an option for Keirsey.  Kirilloff is getting way too many starts in LF, due to Larnach's turf toe, but I still don't think Keirsey is the right player to replace Kirilloff if that's the case.

Keirsey's best path to the majors is if Larnach continues to struggle or is sent on the IL (and maybe he should be at this point).   I think the latter is the more likely callup as it looks like in both the case of Larnach and Kirilloff, the FO is giving them a decent leash and seems reluctant to send them down for performance reasons right now.

That would make him a regular option in LF against RHP with him giving rest to Buxton in CF once a week.   Castro would maintain a super utility role giving players rest and playing different positions.

25 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

Is RF/9 a useful measure that teams use? How do the different ball in play contexts impact varying RF/9? What inning sample is necessary for RF/9 to be relevant? It is an opportunity stat so a pretty large sample must be necessary. For outfielders, would PO/9 be more telling of range?

Assuming it is valuable here are there career RF/9 in centerfield. 

Keirsey 2.46

Martin 2.49 (minors only with majors it is 2.46)

Rodriguez 2.53

 

As you probably already know, it is not.   It's really about chances and assumes everyone gets an equal number of opportunities  (and that those opportunities are also all equal).     

2 hours ago, TopGunn#22 said:

Margot was a mistake.  Admit it and move on.  Keirsey could help the Twins, especially if Buxton goes down.  What are the odds of that happening? (think about this for a moment--how long do you expect Buxton to "be healthy)?"   

Promoting Keirsey to the Twins and E-Rod to St. Paul doesn't "reek of desperation."  It promotes a player who could help the big club if given a specific role and moves a player tearing up AA to AAA.  I think it's a normal and logical progression.

Speaking of non-desperation, Lewis will be coming back in the not too distant future and Brooks Lee will be moving Kyle Farmer out of a roster spot within a month and a half.  Margot should just be DFA'd.  Maybe they can get something for Farmer in a trade.  

Brooks Lee has not shown he can handle Big Show pitching and is moving no one any where, more wishful thinking, well maybe Julien.

It would be nice to bring Keirsey Jr. up to see if he can handle it or fall flat on his face.

On 5/24/2024 at 12:00 PM, Doctor Gast said:

Castro has been over-stretched mentally as well as physically with the injuries of Lewis, Correa & Buxton at those key positions. Keirsey was more needed in their absence but still, he deserves to get his feet wet. It seems like he has trended up as he is promoted. The problem is there are some on the 40 man that are occupying space that Keirsey needs. Management is hesitant to make that space. As I said before I'd rather have our guys with the opportunities than bringing others in. And Keirsey is one of them.

I'd bring him up and lose Margot.  There will need to be another move made when Royce Lewis is ready.  Then they have to figure out which hitter isn't making enough progress to stay on the big league roster.  But we need a better choice in CF when Buxton isn't out there.

3 hours ago, Otaknam said:

They won’t rush Rodriquez this year when there are viable options ahead of him. But EROD should be in position for a call up next year if he keeps hitting well this year. A promotion to AAA this year would be a big step.

And I think Miranda is a better candidate for first base with Royce lewis coming back shortly.

1 hour ago, Alex said:

As you probably already know, it is not.   It's really about chances and assumes everyone gets an equal number of opportunities  (and that those opportunities are also all equal).     

@bean5302 prompted me to look at their career numbers so I didn’t discount it. I appreciated his post but didn’t come to the same conclusion. It still is about the only thing we have to measure range for much of the 20th century. If I saw one CF at 3 and another at 2 over a full season that is also supported by their career numbers, I would conclude the player around 3 had more range. If that split resulted in Rodriguez and Keirsey over their minor career I could be persuaded that Rodriguez had better range. They are pretty close and probably I find it inconclusive in determining the better center fielder.