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The dominant story of the Twins' 2023-24 offseason (and 2024 season) was ownership’s decision to slash approximately $30 million from the 2023 payroll. Doing so meant trading away Jorge Polanco, shopping for bargain-level relievers, and essentially sitting out the trade deadline. The worst fears of fans and Twins employees about the ramifications of that decrease--roughly 20 percent--came to fruition when a six-week swoon resulted in the Twins missing the postseason by a handful of games.
But even worse news awaits the team in 2025, as significant built-in raises to several key players will require the team to raise payroll if they want to keep the core of this 82-win team intact. Even with free-agent departures like Max Kepler (who made $10 million in 2024), Carlos Santana ($5.25 million), Kyle Farmer ($6.3 million), Anthony DeSclafani ($4 million, for the Twins; the rest of his eight-figure salary was paid by the Giants and Mariners), and Caleb Thielbar ($3.225 million), the Twins will have even less money to spend than last offseason, unless there is a significant increase in payroll from ownership.
That’s because the payroll will rise organically, due to built-in raises for players under contract and those who get raises via MLB’s arbitration process. For instance, the Twins have a contract with Pablo López that will start paying him $21.5 million annually in 2025, up from $8 million in 2024. Similarly, since Chris Paddack was still returning from Tommy John surgery, he was only paid $2.5 million this year. But he’s under contract for $7.5 million next year.
The bigger issue is MLB’s arbitration process, which gives significant raises to players as they get closer to free agency. The Twins have over half a dozen key players who will get significant raises as a result of this process--and still be a bargain at their new salaries. They include third baseman Royce Lewis, catcher Ryan Jeffers, outfielder Trevor Larnach, starting pitchers Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober, and relievers Jhoan Durán and Griffin Jax. None of these players will receive an enormous raise, but increases of even $1-4 million for each mean any savings of departing free agents are quickly consumed.
Above is a back-of-the-napkin analysis of the 2025 Twins payroll, including reported contract values and estimated arbitration awards. It is a starting point for the offseason; it shows what the Twins roster might look like if the 2025 season started today, absent their outgoing free agents. It shows a 26-man payroll of approximately $132 million, compared to a 26-man payroll of approximately $122 million for 2024.
You may cringe a little as you review the names on the list, but remember, this is not meant to be a roster projection. It's a payroll projection. For instance, I don’t think the Twins will be comfortable with Edouard Julien as their designated hitter. But he’s the in-house option right now, and to replace him, they’ll need to pay someone quite a bit more than the roughly $800,000 that Julien would make.
Furthermore, subtracting salaries from this payroll projection isn’t necessarily easy. Christian Vázquez may not be worth $10 million as a backup catcher. However, MLB contracts are guaranteed, so the Twins need to find another team to pay him some substantial portion of that to remove his salary from this list. Ditto Paddack and his $7.5 million. You may want to trade Carlos Correa to save $36 million, but Correa has a no-trade clause in his contract. He’s not going anywhere. The same goes for Byron Buxton and his $15 million salary.
Looking closer at the list, you'll soon find that any payroll cuts start hurting. Can Ryan or Ober and their approximate $4 million 2025 salaries be traded away, to be replaced with David Festa or Zebby Matthews and the $800,000 or less that they’d make? Sure, and the Twins could get a valuable player or prospect package in return. But will that help or hurt the 2025 team’s chances of making the postseason? Flipping the possibilities, can we really picture the front office trading away a prospect of meaningful value in a bundle with Vázquez or Paddack for a marginal return, just to clear money they might spend elsewhere? They've never shown an appetite for that kind of move before, even under similar pressures.
So, ownership's reassurance that payroll won’t be cut further should not be viewed as reassuring. A static payroll will still require Derek Falvey and the Twins front office to ask and answer some tough questions this offseason. If payroll doesn’t increase, additional cuts will likely be necessary just to maintain most of the team's core. If the front office wants to improve or add players, they’ll need to be especially creative--or talk the Pohlads into restoring their investment in the team to the modest but acceptable standard they set a few years ago.
What would you do if you were in Falvey's shoes? How much more money would the Pohlads need to put back into the pot to ease these pressures? Let your voice be heard in the comments.
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