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  • Aaron Hicks and a Complex Trade Result 8 Years in the Making


    Matt Braun

    A sunk cost no more. After a dreadful continuation of multiple inept seasons, Aaron Hicks now finds himself jobless, freshly told to leave by a franchise once greatly appreciative of his labor. With full hindsight, let’s travel to 2015 in order to understand the meaning of a much-maligned deal. 

    Image courtesy of Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports

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    November 11, 2015: Traded by the Minnesota Twins to the New York Yankees for John Ryan Murphy

    There was good reason for the trade at the time. Minnesota’s catcher situation was Kurt Suzuki—awful in 2015—and Juan Centeno, of non-prospect pedigree and lacking in inspiring performance. Prospect Stuart Turner was also in the major-league mix; he eventually put up -1.2 rWAR in 89 major-league plate appearances with the Reds in 2017. Murphy was interesting, however, potentially in the way that all MLB players are interesting, but he claimed youth and could hit a little bit. New York didn’t care too much—they had an even younger masher on the horizon named Gary Sánchez—so a swap involving the catcher seemed attractive.

    The real reason for the Twins to banish Hicks was not necessarily to replenish their weak catching situation but because of a limited amount of outfield spots to hand out to a promising young crop. Eddie Rosario had already broken into the majors, holding his own over 122 games; Max Kepler was too pronounced to ignore after a dominant performance at Double-A Chattanooga; and, finally, the real reason why Minnesota shipped Hicks out of town: a man named Byron Buxton was set to control MLB for a decade. 

    And so the teams made a deal. J.R. Murphy would trade in Yankee pinstripes and any hope of becoming the next Jorge Posada, while one slightly used Aaron Hicks would earn a chance to prove his worth in the toughest market in sports.

    We know how this played out; Murphy barely played for the Twins, was outright bad when he did play, and got jettisoned amongst franchise turnover when the new front office took over following a disastrous 2016. Hicks turned in a poor first year in New York before realizing his potential, becoming a great tertiary, complementary piece on some dangerous Yankees teams in both 2017 and 2018. Pleased with their heist, New York decision-makers handed him a seven-year, $70 million contract before the 2019 season.

    And then something weird happened. As atrophy and injuries siphoned excitement from the new Yankees contenders, Hicks—fair or not—fell victim to the swamp of blame, trudging through murky front-office choices and healthless seasons while the “baby bombers” consistently fell to better, more well-built franchises. The mood shifted. No longer a wise steal, Hicks was now part of the establishment representing failed attempts at a title; his play dropped tremendously—a respectable 2020 begat painful 2021 and 2022 campaigns. Fresh out of patience, the Yankees looked at one of the worst left fields in MLB and decided that not having Hicks would be an improvement to their current lot, and he was DFA’d with two years and a team option left on his deal.

    Now we can tangle with the ultimate question: was the trade that bad?

    Sure, the Twins received nothing in Murphy, but Hicks’ Yankees career turned into two years of solid performance and a handful of seasons of misery—the kind of which that ruins the strongest wills. New York had to hold onto him long after his expiration date, hoping that the Hicks of old was still there, just needing one more day to appear. In the meantime, their performance sagged by their standards. 

    Meanwhile, Buxton is about to crack 20 career fWAR, Kepler is near 17, and Rosario handed Minnesota about as much value as Hicks accrued in his MLB career (12.2 to 11.9, respectively). 

    Perhaps it was a poor allocation of resources—they could have acquired someone, anyone better in the swap—but all they lost was a position player they could not use, a weapon they could not fire. If that is all, then this trade will likely fall deep into the forgotten chasm of tragic deals, only remembered by sour fans or cunning historians.

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    Nice article.  You mentioned Buxton controlling MLB for a decade?  That took a lot of credibility away from your statements.  Buxton, o ly playing half the time during his " decade"  with the Twins controlling MLB is totally ridiculous.  Other than that I did like the article.  Trading Hicks was ok but to only get Murphy was a huge blunder.

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    Injuries contributed a lot to Hick’s last several years of underperformance. However, he has been brutal this year in the OF, missing balls that should have been easy outs.
     

    One of the effects of trading Hicks is that Buxton was called up before he was able to be effective at the MLB level. 

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    Murphy’s’s was coming off a fairly decent year as a part timer blocked by an All-Star.  At the time I was excited by the trade and thought we had made a deal that would solve our catching misery! Murphy was a total flop- but that was not the projection.

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    1 hour ago, Whitey333 said:

    Nice article.  You mentioned Buxton controlling MLB for a decade?  That took a lot of credibility away from your statements.  Buxton, o ly playing half the time during his " decade"  with the Twins controlling MLB is totally ridiculous.  Other than that I did like the article.  Trading Hicks was ok but to only get Murphy was a huge blunder.

    "Was set to" in that the Twins were expecting that from him. 

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    Murphy looked like he could be a league-average hitter and decent defender at catcher, and those are hard to find. Turns out, he had already reached his hitting peak at age 24. Trading Hicks was a reasonable move, but the return turned out to be dreadful, and maybe the old FO should have known better.

    There's a pretty good argument that they should have had an idea that his 2015 performance was a fluke rather than an indicator of his future. The BABIP was unsustainable, he wasn't hitting the ball particularly hard, his xBA and xSLG suggested he was getting lucky too, and he'd never had a really great hitting season in the minors either. (excepting a 9 game cup of coffee in rookie ball in 2009, he never topped an .800 OPS for a full season at any level) It's a definite miss in player evaluation for that front office.

    Moving Hicks at the time was a smart decision at the time; there was a real question if he was going to hit enough, but had solid value as a defender and still had some upside offensively. They were trading from strength and depth and moving a player that wasn't going to be in their plans as more than a 4th OF before he got expensive while his value looked pretty solid. The thought process there was good, but the failure was in player evaluation on the other end. And you have to wonder if they were trading for need rather than trying to get the best player they could. Suzuki was solid, but they had basically nothing behind him...and they appear to have over-estimated the level of talent the 2015 team had, despite their record.

    Rough period of talent evaluation here for the Twins; this was also the year they signed Byungho Park too. There's a reason they cleaned house in the front office.

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    Not sure I follow the logic here. True, they're not going to be retiring Hicks' number in New York. Not sure how that levels getting one of the worst catchers in organizational history in return. The Yankees got two very good years from Hicks - in the field and at the plate. The Twins got less than nothing. Yes, the trade was that bad.

    Hicks had some value. Murphy did not. We might be looking at a very similar situation with the Berrios trade. A nibbling team like the Twins have to find a way to increase value through trades.

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    They traded a high ceiling player that they were not getting better for a player they probably thought they could make better.  They traded 3 CF and got one player who worked out. That is how it goes.

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    I always thought Hicks' switch hitting delayed his development. It's hard to get enough at-bats to develop one swing; a switch hitter needs even more repetition. This is something to consider when people want to put Brooks Lee on a fast track. Lee's numbers as a left-handed batter (.809 OPS) are FAR ahead of his numbers from the right side of the plate (.538 OPS). He hardly ever sees lefthanded pitchers (just 34 plate appearances this year) so that part of his game is going to take longer to develop. If you rush him he'll never develop.

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    One of the worst trades in Twins history, and that's before you take into account the results. 

    Murphy wasn't in the same talent league as Hicks. Not even close. Really awful use of resources. You can't be that far short on the balance of talent scale on a trade. 

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    The Hicks extension has nothing to do with the swap. 

    Hicks was a player the Twins couldn't use? Zach Granite, Danny Santana, Ryan Lamarre, and Robbie Grossman all got serious run in the OF between 2016 and 2018. I mean....

    The Twins got one negative WAR season from Murphy. Hicks put up over 8 WAR pre-extension and that's with a rough 2016. It was an atrocious swap, not just some blip on the radar.  

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    6 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

    No it was not acceptable.  In our constant quest for a fourth OF - wouldn't a Hicks/Rosario/Buxton/Kepler team have been very valuable?   He was overrated because he was a Yankee, but dumping him was wrong and the choice for the trade was atrocious. 

    We've likewise yearned for a 4th (or maybe even 3rd OF) since dumping Rosario.  Sometimes foolish to move a vet without somebody playing him completely off the roster.

     

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    The trade was not complex, despite the headline.

    The idea of trading up-the-middle talent for up-the-middle talent was solid.

    They identified decently enough that Hicks would not be head and shoulders the best of that current crop of outfielders, and tagged him as the trading chip.

    But we got back zilch.  One of the worst moves of Terry Ryan's career, and an absolute flop of player evaluation, at least on the catching side. 

    Sound plan, botched execution.

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    On 5/28/2023 at 9:47 AM, Matt Braun said:

    "Was set to" in that the Twins were expecting that from him. 

    "With full hindsight, ..." in the first paragraph.

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