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Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 5/24 through Sun, 5/30
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Record Last Week: 4-2 (Overall: 21-31)
Run Differential Last Week: +2 (Overall: -22)
Standing: 5th Place in AL Central (11.0 GB)
Last Week's Game Recaps:
Game 47 | MIN 8, BAL 3: Rare Late-game Surge Pushes Twins Past O's
Game 48 | MIN 7, BAL 4: Lineup Comes Through Again with Seven Runs
Game 49 | MIN 3, BAL 2: Michael and Miguel Lead Minnesota to First Sweep
Game 50 | KC 8, MIN 3: Royals Cool Off Twins in Deflating Loss
Game 51 | MIN 6, KC 5: Twins Fend Off KC Rally and Hold On
Game 52 | KC 6, MIN 3: Fading Twins Drop Another Home Series
NEWS & NOTES
This is the ninth Week in Review column we've filed this season, and it's the first since Week 1 – when the Twins won their season-opening series in Milwaukee, two games to one – that we're reviewing a winning week.
As winning weeks ago, however, this one was remarkably uninspiring and unfulfilling. They really needed to go 5-1 at least in these six games at home against bad teams, but instead came away with just four wins, and might've been lucky to get that.
The Twins required a late-game rally to beat Baltimore on Monday, and barely eked out a one-run victory on Wednesday to clinch the sweep. In a three-game weekend series against the Royals, Minnesota was twice beaten handily, and scraped out a one-run win in the other. This is not a great team dominating bad competition. This is a bottom-dweller with its hands full facing the same.
On the health front, it was another week of bad news and foreboding developments for the Twins. They lost two more key pieces to the Injured List, with Luis Arraez (shoulder) and Max Kepler (hamstring) hitting the shelf after trying to play through their respective ailments. There's a belief that Kepler could return soon after his 10-day window expires, but Arraez is looking at a lengthier absence, as his shoulder injury appears to be more serious than initially thought.
Meanwhile, Kenta Maeda is also facing an extended period of unavailability. Rocco Baldelli said on Sunday that the right-hander's groin issue has been resolved, but the team wants to give Maeda extra time off due to "general arm soreness," which may help explain his extremely lackluster results up to this point.
Adding to the fun (not): Byron Buxton was not able to start a rehab assignment as hoped this past weekend, because he's still not moving around at 100%. Three weeks removed from suffering his hip strain, Buxton's timetable remains in limbo.
On the bright side, the Twins did get Michael Pineda back from IL, and as we'll cover below, he looked great. In the bullpen, Cody Stashak was swapped out for Juan Minaya. Dakota Chalmers was DFA'ed to make room on the 40-man roster for Minaya.
HIGHLIGHTS
The return of Pineda was more than welcome for a rotation that's been receiving some uneven performances and is now missing Maeda. Pineda's been the underrated steady rock of this unit, and looked the part again on Wednesday.
In a series finale against Baltimore where the offense didn't quite show up the way it had in the first two, Minnesota needed a high-quality pitching performance. Pineda delivered, firing six innings of one-run ball. He allowed three hits and a walk while striking out eight.
Pineda's 16-7 record with the Twins stacks up as the best winning percentage in franchise history, and it's reflective of the reality that he gives them a good chance to win just about every time he takes the mound. In all but one start this year, he has pitched five or more innings and allowed three or fewer runs.
The lineup is getting help from some unlikely sources. Hardly just a novelty act, Rob Refsnyder has been a key contributor; last week he went 7-for-22 with a homer and four RBIs to deliver some much-needed production at the bottom of the order. With Kepler and Buxton both sidelined, Refsnyder is essentially the only center fielder on the roster. Baldelli's made no secret of the fact that he'll be riding Refsnyder hard in the short-term, and the manager will have to hope his opportunistic 30-year-old can stay hot (and healthy).
Refsnyder's recent success bodes well in the short-term. But the breakout performance of Trevor Larnach alongside him in the outfield bodes much better for the long-term. He's looking every bit the advanced, impact hitter that his minor-league numbers and top-prospect accolades suggested. Larnach went 5-for-14 with two home runs and five RBIs last week, and while he's shown the ability to absolutely obliterate baseballs, his plate discipline might be the most promising aspect of his early play.
Larnach presents a challenging match-up for opposing pitchers because he doesn't chase much outside the zone, and can capitalize once he gets his pitch. As Aaron Gleeman notes, Larnach is tied for third-most walks in Twins history through his first 20 games. His five walks (vs. four strikeouts) last week included one with the bases loaded, forcing in a key run.
Alex Kirilloff continues to rake (8-for-23 with two doubles last week), and Jorge Polanco is showing some pop despite the bad wheel (two doubles and a homer in his five starts). But the biggest bright spot on offense right now has got to be Mitch Garver, who suddenly looks like his old Silver Slugger self.
Taking on a more regular workload with Ryan Jeffers and (until Sunday) Ben Rortvedt in Triple-A, Garver has rediscovered his rhythm at the plate. In four starts last week and one late-game sub appearance last week, he went 5-for-13 with four doubles, a home run, four walks, and just two strikeouts.
Garver was slashing .151/.196/.321 with a 25-to-3 K/BB ratio through his first 17 games before a breakout two-homer night in Cleveland on April 28th. Since then, he is slashing .300/.432/.683 with 18 strikeouts and 14 walks. In 2019, he slashed .273/.365/.630.
LOWLIGHTS
While young bucks like Larnach and Kirilloff have been stepping up to carry much of the load offensively, the highly-paid veterans that Minnesota depends upon are coming up short.
Nelson Cruz is wrapping up perhaps his most underwhelming month in a Twins uniform. Following a 2-for-14 week, he's slashing .232/.315/.378 in May with three home runs and just six RBIs in 23 games. Is age finally catching up with Cruz? He started the season on a scorching tear, but has looked like a very ordinary player for the last five weeks or so. Then again he's still hitting the ball hard as hell, so maybe it's just a matter of time before he catches fire again. Here's hoping so, because the Twins will at the very least be reliant on Cruz as a key trade chip in July.
Even more concerning are the ongoing struggles of Josh Donaldson, who for better or worse is going to be around for a while The Twins spent big on Donaldson two offseasons ago, envisioning him is the final puzzle piece for a power-laden lineup with championship aspirations. Donaldson was largely a non-factor in 2020 due to injury, and while he's been able to stay on the field this year, he's making more headlines for his drama-stirring tweets than for his standout play.
Last week Donaldson went 3-for-21, dropping his slash line for the season to .226/.325/.394. His double off the right field wall on Sunday was his first extra-base hit in 12 days, and he hasn't had a multi-hit game since May 8th. Donaldson is still taking good ABs and drawing walks at a solid clip, but there's only so much value in having one of the slowest dudes in baseball putting himself on first base a handful of times per week. They need JD crushing drives all over the field. He's mostly just hitting pop-ups when he makes contact, and is on pace to finish with 15 home runs.
And then there is the ever-streaky Miguel Sanó, who flipped the switch back from red-hot to ice-cold with a 2-for-21 week that included one walk and 11 strikeouts. Granted, one of those two hits was tremendously impactful – a sixth-inning three-run homer on Wednesday that essentially turned a loss into a win – but he was a black hole otherwise.
Between that trio – Cruz, Donaldson, and Sanó – you've got three critical cornerstones of the lineup, all hitting in key spots and providing almost nothing. They're killing rallies, rather than powering the offense with clutch knocks and dramatic blasts (with one exception).
The pitching hasn't been very good but ultimately this team is built to outslug opponents and should be mauling staffs like Baltimore and Kansas City. To score only three runs in three of these six games, at home, is reflective of a dysfunctional lineup being let down by its supposed leaders.
When I look back on this incredibly disappointing season, I will very likely zero in on this past week, when the Twins desperately needed to go on a run against bad teams to salvage their contention hopes and the three highest-paid players on the roster – Cruz, Donaldson and Sanó make a combined $50 million, accounting for more than a third of the total payroll – went 3-for-19 with runners in scoring position.
TRENDING STORYLINE
In happier news, the arms are cooking down on the farm. Last week in this space we celebrated the sterling debut of Jhoan Duran for the Saints; in his second start on Thursday, Duran tossed four shutout innings with one hit allowed and eight strikeouts. He's on the fast track and could be a real difference-maker for the Twins' staff this year. But he's not the only pitching prospect making a strong early impression.
Josh Winder, whose ascending velocity has opened eyes and earned him a spring training invite, struck out seven over five innings of two-run ball for Wichita on Saturday. He owns a 1.48 ERA and 30-to-6 K/BB ratio through 24 ⅓ frames in his first stint at Double-A. Matt Canterino is currently pitching at Cedar Rapids, but could soon join Winder in Wichita because he's putting up flat-out silly numbers against Single-A hitters. After striking out 10 in four innings on Friday, Canterino has a 1.50 ERA and 35-to-3 K/BB ratio in 18 innings for the Kernels.
In another bit of encouraging news pertaining to the pitcher pipeline, Jordan Balazovic plans to throw in Fort Myers on Monday. If that goes well, it sounds like he'll be heading to Double-A, where the rotation could soon feature him, Winder, and Canterino. More like Pitch-ita, amirite.
Duran is closest out of these names, but any of them are realistic possibilities to pitch for the Twins this season.
LOOKING AHEAD
The "Or-royals" segment of the schedule rolls on in the coming week, as the Twins will travel to play both clubs on the road after going 4-2 against them at Target Field. If Minnesota can't find a way to go 6-1 or 7-0 in the upcoming games, they're going to look back at these two weeks as an unaffordable missed opportunity to make up crucial ground.
They'll be returning home to face the Yankees and Astros afterward. If they play those opponents the same way they played this past week and, really, for most of the season, it's going to get ugly.
MONDAY, 5/31: TWINS @ ORIOLES – RHP Jose Berríos v. RHP Jorge Lopez
TUESDAY, 6/1: TWINS @ ORIOLES – RHP Michael Pineda v. LHP Bruce Zimmermann
WEDNESDAY, 6/2: TWINS @ ORIOLES – RHP Randy Dobnak v. RHP Matt Harvey
THURSDAY, 6/3: TWINS @ ROYALS – LHP J.A. Happ v. LHP Kris Bubic
FRIDAY, 6/4: TWINS @ ROYALS – RHP Matt Shoemaker v. TBD
SATURDAY, 6/5: TWINS @ ROYALS – RHP Jose Berrios v. RHP Brad Keller
SUNDAY, 6/6: TWINS @ ROYALS – RHP Michael Pineda v. LHP Mike Minor
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- dbminn and mikelink45
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