Article: Pitching Prospect Profile: Sean Gilmartin

[Seth Stohs]

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php/2553-Pitching-Prospect-Profile-Sean-Gilmartin

[twinsajsf]

Thanks, Seth! Sounds like Gilmartin was on the fast-track in the Atlanta system before the injury last year. I think this is a great pickup in exchange a guy with limited value (bench bat & backup corner outfielder on a good team), especially to a rebuilding team.

[Shane Wahl]

Good job getting this done quickly! And you and I agree on his placement on the Twins prospect list.

[tobi0040]

Good job getting this done quickly! And you and I agree on his placement on the Twins prospect list.

 

I love this trade. We had depth and let's face it, Doumit wasn't even an average DH, which is where he probably would have seen the most AB's. At a bare minium, this guy looks like a very good lefty specialist out of the pen. Best case a #3 or #4 starter. I read in another report that his change and slider are both plus offerings.

[maxisagod]

I think by the end of spring training we will have lost 1 or 2 of Diamond, Worley, and Deduno, to waivers or trades so adding Gilmartin will be important to restocking our AA and AAA pitching depth, as well as our depth for starter prospects.

[howieramone1406390264]

Great move! With Kris Johnson and now Gilmartin, it looks like they're rethinking the pecking order and roles of our lefties.

[BigTrane]

Agree with the other posters, this is a great move.

Saw this from a DFA Doumit/sign Suzuki angle initially, so first take was: good move.

 

Taking Gilmartin separately, and considering how he seems to have been rushed through the Braves' system, we can let him spell for '14 in AA or AAA and risk nothing, while giving him time to rebound & adjust. Given that time and support from the org., it's possible he could flesh out his pitches and develop a multi-weapon arsenal.

 

Come '15, he stands to be in serious consideration if all goes well in AA/AAA, and I could see a guy like this adapting to any number of roles. Still, we have to get '14 behind us and the big SP & C transitions first to really be able to say any more about this aspect of the deal.

 

Meantime, he has a chance to develop, we have a chance to mentor and scout, let out rotation shake out, then make a decision. What's not to like?

[Joe A. Preusser]

Two things:

 

This makes me feel quite a bit better after all the negative things I have heard about his fastball. A guy with nice secondary offerings can afford to only throw 91-92 on his FB. It was the reports that he struggled to approach 90 that worried me. Which leads me to my next thought...

 

Is it common for a pitcher to lose as much as 6! MPH on his fastball from some simple tendinitis? That seems like an awfully big drop.

 

Assuming he can regain that 92mph velocity I see no reason he can't work his way up to a #3 caliber starter with his secondary offerings, right?

[Seth Stohs]

I do need to reiterate that his fastball in 2013 was more in the 86-87 range, but I think a lot of that has to be shoulder related. Hopefully he can get the velocity back.

 

The other nice thing is that he doesn't need to be added to the 40 man roster until after 2014, so no need to rush him the next couple of years. Get him healthy and back on track.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

I'd put Gilmartin a little further back (probably near the back-half of the twenties), but I think it's universally accepted that I value upside far more than readiness (or near-readiness).

[howieramone1406390264]

I'd put Gilmartin a little further back (probably near the back-half of the twenties), but I think it's universally accepted that I value upside far more than readiness (or near-readiness).

 

You also have a better feel for ETA times.

 

Gibson....Meyer....May?................Gilmartin/Eades

[twinsfaninsaudi]

Great move! With Kris Johnson and now Gilmartin, it looks like they're rethinking the pecking order and roles of our lefties.

 

Yes, and rightly so.

[infoman]

Do we really need another soft tossing pitcher? What about getting some guys to fill out the lineup? Now we have some pitching and no one that can hit the ball let alone drive in runs. Our offense was as pathetic as our pitching last year and now who do we have that will drive in runs?

[DAM DC Twins Fans]

I am wary of assuming this guy will give us much in 2015--as Seth says--threw about 87MPH last year--looks like another Duensing/Diamond type (back of rotation lefty starter or lefty reliever)--even if recovers from injury issues (doubt he can consistently get over 90MPH.

 

On the other hand we gave up nothing in Doumit--a mediocre lefty bench back and opened up a roster spot for Pelfrey--so a good trade but doesn't mean much in the long run.

[Monkeypaws]

We've seen higher-rated, older prospects throw for a higher ERA at lower leagues when healthy than this guy did last year in AAA with a sore shoulder. His college, first year, and AFL numbers were all pretty good.

 

Seeing that trading Doumit itself hurts nothing, I like the trade - all I can say about this and the Butera trade is, more of the same please.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

You also have a better feel for ETA times.

 

Gibson....Meyer....May?................Gilmartin/Eades

 

Good question...

 

Gibson will be in the rotation as soon as he wins a spot (or someone gets injured). The likelihood is that he's going to start the season in Rochester and, unless someone clears waivers, be the first guy up. So... May/June.

 

Meyer... for some reason, I feel like he'll be the first of the wave to make the Show. So I'm going to go with July. I could see it be later... but if this team is anywhere near contention (and I'm not saying they will be), Meyer will be up and helping.

 

May: He's tough because he could be a starter or a reliever. I think September call-up, but potentially earlier if he shifts to the bullpen. Opening Day of 2015 (if a reliever), summer of '15 if he's still a starter.

 

Gilmartin: 2015 (as needed), but can't see the Twins adding him to 40-man roster during season to start when he's going to be 9th or 10th at best in the pecking order. Baxendale in the same relative boat.

 

Eades: No where close until he can at least pitch in AA.

 

Of course, all of this is best (yet fun) guess.

[biggentleben]

As a Braves fan and writer, I've seen a lot of Gilmartin, and last year it wasn't just the velocity. He lost feel and touch on all his pitches, and it sounds like this is a shoulder injury that could be one of things that never goes away fully, meaning days of 91-92 and sharp-breaking junk may simply be gone. I know he had slipped to 14 in the Braves system in our ranks, and that's a bottom tier system right now, so you're talking a prospect who's likely 350-450 overall in baseball. Not that Doumit was exactly lighting the world on fire, but Gilmartin was basically throwaway fodder for the Braves. It'd be nice for the Twins if he could recover some of what he once was, but everything I've seen, read, and heard says Gilmartin is likely never that guy again fully.

[Joe A. Preusser]

As a Braves fan and writer, I've seen a lot of Gilmartin, and last year it wasn't just the velocity. He lost feel and touch on all his pitches, and it sounds like this is a shoulder injury that could be one of things that never goes away fully, meaning days of 91-92 and sharp-breaking junk may simply be gone. I know he had slipped to 14 in the Braves system in our ranks, and that's a bottom tier system right now, so you're talking a prospect who's likely 350-450 overall in baseball. Not that Doumit was exactly lighting the world on fire, but Gilmartin was basically throwaway fodder for the Braves. It'd be nice for the Twins if he could recover some of what he once was, but everything I've seen, read, and heard says Gilmartin is likely never that guy again fully.

 

Well if that's the case it is unfortunate; for him, for the Braves, and finally for the Twins. Sounds like "shoulder tendinitis" might be a euphemism if he is really that unlikely to recover fully. Rest and a cortisone shot can cure some pretty nasty tendinitis, so reading between the lines it sounds like he has some structural damage no one has yet mentioned.

[maxisagod]

Good question...

 

May: He's tough because he could be a starter or a reliever. I think September call-up, but potentially earlier if he shifts to the bullpen. Opening Day of 2015 (if a reliever), summer of '15 if he's still a starter.

 

Won't May be out of options by Opening Day 2015? So maybe bullpen arm for start of 2015, followed by being stretched out as a starter for mid 2015, might be a more likely timeline.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Won't May be out of options by Opening Day 2015? So maybe bullpen arm for start of 2015, followed by being stretched out as a starter for mid 2015, might be a more likely timeline.

 

13 was his first optional assignment, so he's got this coming year amd next yet before he has to stick.

[twinsfan34]

Yes, and rightly so.

 

 

Rightly...so.

 

I see what you did there.

[howieramone1406390264]

As a Braves fan and writer, I've seen a lot of Gilmartin, and last year it wasn't just the velocity. He lost feel and touch on all his pitches, and it sounds like this is a shoulder injury that could be one of things that never goes away fully, meaning days of 91-92 and sharp-breaking junk may simply be gone. I know he had slipped to 14 in the Braves system in our ranks, and that's a bottom tier system right now, so you're talking a prospect who's likely 350-450 overall in baseball. Not that Doumit was exactly lighting the world on fire, but Gilmartin was basically throwaway fodder for the Braves. It'd be nice for the Twins if he could recover some of what he once was, but everything I've seen, read, and heard says Gilmartin is likely never that guy again fully.

 

I may be wrong, but I do not believe you can deal damaged goods. If they were open and honest and the Twins bought that's one thing, but MLB isn't a buyer's beware situation.

 

Edit: Mayo just ranked him as the Twin's 13th rated prospect.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I may be wrong, but I do not believe you can deal damaged goods. If they were open and honest and the Twins bought that's one thing, but MLB isn't a buyer's beware situation.

 

Edit: Mayo just ranked him as the Twin's 13th rated prospect.

 

Damaged goods can be dealt all the time. That's part of buying low. The Twins under Ryan have been very good at scouting other team's sytem, so like you, I think this was a good move even if Gilmartin fails miserably.

 

That said, I don't see the logic in Mayo's ranking, and that comes from a guy who places far more weight in success at higher levels. Gilmartin is a huge risk with that shoulder. I think the reward is potentially nice, but not one where I'd put him in my top 20. If he bounces back this season and is throwing in the low 90s again, great.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Given this system, 13 seems pretty high. And I'm a guy that values upper level success over potential.

 

It all hinges on his velocity. If he can get back to 90, he could crack the Twins' top ten. If he's at 86-87 for eternity, he's in the 20s somewhere.

[jay]

It'd be nice for the Twins if he could recover some of what he once was, but everything I've seen, read, and heard says Gilmartin is likely never that guy again fully.

 

This feels a bit like Braves fans trying to wash their hands of it. While it's a possibility, I'm not seeing how a summer of tendinitis turns into a determination that he can never recover from it.

[halfchest]

I said this in a previous thread but dang, I don't see how anyone could not like this for the Twins. We're not likely to compete in 2014 unless a .500 record gets you in the wildcard (which it won't). I didn't expect to get much of anything and we get a guy who is a year removed from playing three levels and being effective. Is he a world changer? No. Could he be a solid mid to back of the rotation starter? Yes. I put him above most of the guys we trotted out there last year like Albers, Diamond, etc. He's a nice little wild card that could contribute.

 

I also like his chance to convert to the pen if starting doesn't work out. Best bullpen guys are failed starters as we've all seen. Maybe he pulls a perk and adds a couple ticks to his fastball out of the pen. Suddenly that changeup becomes deadly.

[Lefty74]

As a Braves fan and writer, I've seen a lot of Gilmartin, and last year it wasn't just the velocity. He lost feel and touch on all his pitches, and it sounds like this is a shoulder injury that could be one of things that never goes away fully, meaning days of 91-92 and sharp-breaking junk may simply be gone. I know he had slipped to 14 in the Braves system in our ranks, and that's a bottom tier system right now, so you're talking a prospect who's likely 350-450 overall in baseball. Not that Doumit was exactly lighting the world on fire, but Gilmartin was basically throwaway fodder for the Braves. It'd be nice for the Twins if he could recover some of what he once was, but everything I've seen, read, and heard says Gilmartin is likely never that guy again fully.

 

Thanks for this info. I watched a video of him throwing and was wondering why he was considered a "soft tossing lefty". Not sure when the video was shot, but he was consistently 91-92 with his fastball. Off speed looked sharp as well. I don't think the Braves would let someone like that go--your comments seem to provide the answer.

[TheLeviathan]

]It all hinges on his velocity. If he can get back to 90, he could crack the Twins' top ten. If he's at 86-87 for eternity, he's in the 20s somewhere.

 

Yeah, I don't see any reasonable basis for that ranking. The guy has to show he can throw again. Shoulder injuries are tricky and can be devastating. If he had come back and got some of that velocity back late last year, that would make some sense.

 

But a mid 80's velocity fastball with poor control is the last we saw of him. That should matter a lot. All that said, what makes this a smart move is that if the shoulder injury is fully healed, we've got a solid arm that we acquired at only the price of an aging, redundant player. We can all hope for that outcome, but right now he's still damaged goods.

[biggentleben]

This feels a bit like Braves fans trying to wash their hands of it. While it's a possibility, I'm not seeing how a summer of tendinitis turns into a determination that he can never recover from it.

 

Except that no one I've heard that from has any paid association with the Braves. Gilmartin came off as a Minor-lite when he was drafted, but watching him last year was just simply different. He completely lost the feel for creating the break on his pitches that once gave him elite movement and secondary stuff. That may never return.

[biggentleben]

Thanks for this info. I watched a video of him throwing and was wondering why he was considered a "soft tossing lefty". Not sure when the video was shot, but he was consistently 91-92 with his fastball. Off speed looked sharp as well. I don't think the Braves would let someone like that go--your comments seem to provide the answer.

 

From a non-Braves standpoint, that'd be the thing that'd raise the biggest red flag for me. Wren simply refuses to move a solid pitcher unless he's overwhelmed with return (like getting Justin Upton), or he believes a guy's actual value is much lower than his perceived value in the industry (like Arodys Vizcaino). Sometimes that guy can re-establish value, but often those guys turn into little or nothing if the Braves are willing to move him.