The Twins DFA Liam Hendriks

[gunnarthor]

RE: in reply to Doc Freiermuth's post above ^

 

If the front office is already convinced Hendriks is a quad A (AAAA) pitcher, than

 

Anybody below Meyer and maaaaaaybe Lewis Thorpe and Kohl Stewart in the minor league system can be kissed good-bye in 2-6 years. On waivers.

 

I mean it might be an indictment on the coaching staff : R. Anderson, Mintz, Cuellar more than anything but Hendriks dominated not just low a and high a (which hardly matters) he was flat out stellar at times in AA and AAA.

 

THAT in and of itself, suggests he should be a more than servicable starting pitcher, if

 

1) Have the coaches that know how to utilize him

&

2) Said player stays healthy

 

Based off his arsenal, and control, mound presence and all that.

 

It was a long shot he was ever going to be more than a #3 starter......but HE SHOULD have been a decent #4 and I still think will be a #5 / #4 or at least a valuable swing-man... a la Swarzak.

 

There's a lot of room between Meyer and Hendriks. Hendriks was a nice story but he wasn't that good. My guess is that if the Twins signed a 25 yr old pitcher who managed a 5.7 k/9 rate (while not walking anyone) in AAA the fan base would not be happy.

[howieramone1406390264]

I hope this thread doesn't blow-up like the one about Joe Benson! Seriously, the Twins have to cut bait on guys who don't succeed in the majors, there are just too many (and Oh how they have touted their MiLs) on their way up. Sometimes, throats have to be cut. I forgot about Kris Johnson--he will be extended opportunities to succeed at the ML level, quite likely right out of Spring Training. There just isn't any room for Hendriks--and I don't think there should be either!

 

No, that's been the national media and us.

[Rosterman]

It's all a numbers game. Who are the starters at Rochester next year? Gibson, Darnell Logan Darnell, Meyer, Albers....anyone else with mroe promise...not to mention free agent minor league signing guys et al. Plus Diamond, Deduno and Worley fighting it out at the major league level to take a starting job away from...remember...Duensing or Swarzak. It's all about numbers. The Twins may be doing him a favor letting him move on if someone gives him a chance. Otherwise, back to Australia.,

[Brock Beauchamp]

RE: in reply to Doc Freiermuth's post above ^

 

If the front office is already convinced Hendriks is a quad A (AAAA) pitcher, than

 

Anybody below Meyer and maaaaaaybe Lewis Thorpe and Kohl Stewart in the minor league system can be kissed good-bye in 2-6 years. On waivers.

 

I mean it might be an indictment on the coaching staff : R. Anderson, Mintz, Cuellar more than anything but Hendriks dominated not just low a and high a (which hardly matters) he was flat out stellar at times in AA and AAA.

 

THAT in and of itself, suggests he should be a more than servicable starting pitcher, if

 

1) Have the coaches that know how to utilize him

&

2) Said player stays healthy

 

Based off his arsenal, and control, mound presence and all that.

 

It was a long shot he was ever going to be more than a #3 starter......but HE SHOULD have been a decent #4 and I still think will be a #5 / #4 or at least a valuable swing-man... a la Swarzak.

 

Yeah... This isn't true at all. Hendriks' stat line looked okay in AA/AAA, for sure... But not stellar. And then you look at his peripherals and say "ugh". He looked like he had real potential in 2011, striking out 8.0 per nine in AA. But then he floundered a bit in AAA, missing far too few bats. Guys who don't miss bats in the minor leagues are not automatically "serviceable starters" in MLB, no matter how few runs they allow. In fact, most of Hendriks' peripherals outside of ERA point to him floundering in a MLB rotation.

 

I don't know how one would even begin comparing Meyer to Hendriks past "they throw with the same hand".

 

It's disappointing that Hendriks was so bad in Minnesota. But that's what happens to guys with marginal stuff and why you should look past ERA (in most cases, I ignore it in a MiLB player) and try to gauge what stuff the pitcher has in his arsenal.

 

And the higher Hendriks went, the more apparent it was that he didn't really have good stuff. I still think that Liam has a shot to be successful on a MLB roster and I'm not sold on the Twins giving up on him quite yet but given their current roster, somebody had to go. I'm not sure it should have been Hendriks but I'm not sure it shouldn't be, either.

[ericchri]

He had an option left, correct? So if he gets claimed the claiming team still has an option to send him to AAA? If that's the case I can't imagine he won't get claimed.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Yeah... This isn't true at all. Hendriks' stat line looked okay in AA/AAA, for sure... But not stellar. And then you look at his peripherals and say "ugh". He looked like he had real potential in 2011, striking out 8.0 per nine in AA. But then he floundered a bit in AAA, missing far too few bats.

 

Hendriks is a real lesson for those projecting pitching prospects right now. Young guy, relatively quick ascent, solid numbers in the minors through age 22 (comparable to Baker), then... nothing, really. No apparent injury, just couldn't succeed in MLB (or much lasting success at AAA, for that matter).

 

Not a huge deal, although I almost certainly would have sacrificed someone else before him (Colabello?). He turns 25 in February, still has an option remaining. Baker didn't really show much hope in MLB until age 25, same for Swarzak (the latter after a shift to the pen). And not to make excuses, but 2002-2010 Twins prospects arguably didn't have to deal with quite the same negative environment as Hendriks the past few years -- a revolving door of catchers (Hendriks was at his worst pitching to Doumit and Butera, by far), questionable defense, etc.

 

FWIW, despite his poor results thus far, Hendriks has been pretty much replacement level in MLB according to xFIP and by extension fWAR.

[richardkr34]

Here's Goldstein's write-up on Hendriks for the 2011 top 11 list:

 

Year in Review: Nearly unknown entering the year, Hendriks was one of the best statistical performers in the minors, finishing the year with a 1.74 ERA and a strikeout-to-walk ratio of nearly nine to one.

The Good: Even in a system loaded with control specialists, none can match Hendriks, who treats walks as if they're a criminal offense. He sits at 88-90 mph with his fastball while touching 92, and can mix in a slider, curveball, and changeup, all of which rate as average offerings. All of his pitches play up due to his ability to place them exactly where he wants them, and he mixes his pitches for maximum effectiveness.

The Bad: Hendriks will never light up a radar gun, and on a pure scouting level he lacks a single true plus offering. He can morph his two breaking balls into an ineffective slurve at times. He's unproven stamina-wise, as he threw just over 100 innings last year due to an appendectomy, while back and knee issues have plagued him in the past.

Ephemera: Of the 227 right-handed batters Hendriks faced in 2010, he walked a grand total of one.

Perfect World Projection: A dependable and consistent starter, but one for the back of the rotation.

Fantasy Impact: Don't expect much in this department.

Path to the Big Leagues: Hendriks will face a big test in 2011 concerning how well his stuff and style will play at Double-A.

ETA: 2013

 

So, four average (or below, having seen him pitch) pitches and he's 25? And he's been knocked around in the bigs? Another blurb by Goldstein says that scouts felt that his extreme control/no stuff ways caught up to him in AAA. This is a pitcher I'm definitely OK with DFA'ing.

[twinsajsf]

Mastroianni and Thielbar, maybe. But not the rest. Too much potential upside.

 

Theilbar??? What did you not like about his 1.76 ERA in 49 appearances last year? Seems like we would want to see him actually give up some runs at the Major League level before we DFA him?

 

I think this decision really comes down to options, or the lack thereof. Hendriks was going to have to earn a spot in the rotation out of ST or we would lose him anyway. Worley (also out of options) and Diamond both seem more likely than Hendriks to do that, and even they will not be favored over Gibson and Deduno heading in.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I think this decision really comes down to options, or the lack thereof. Hendriks was going to have to earn a spot in the rotation out of ST or we would lose him anyway.

Hendriks still has one option year remaining, according to Berardino:

http://www.twincities.com/twins/ci_24665580/minnesota-twins-liam-hendriks-designated

[Mike Sixel]

THIS is why teams should be willing to trade prospects for proven players.......and yet, they keep not doing it. When they were in AA, if you had packaged Benson and Hendriks, you could have something. Now, you have nothing at all.

[Shane Wahl]

He will be claimed and optioned. Easily. Eric Fryer, though, Eric Fryer.

[Brock Beauchamp]

He will be claimed and optioned. Easily. Eric Fryer, though, Eric Fryer.

 

Yeah, I don't get why he's on the 40 man.

 

I understand the desire to move pitching for pitching on the 40 man but, as you said, Eric Fryer.

[Otto von Ballpark]

He will be claimed and optioned. Easily. Eric Fryer, though, Eric Fryer.

 

Hey, Fryer is my new favorite Twin!

 

That said, if Doumit doesn't want to catch (or shouldn't be catching, take your pick), Fryer is just the not-unreasonable third catcher on the 40-man.

 

Colabello or Mastro could have been better drops. Ibarra too (if possible, I know he was a recent add). A deal for Doumit or Duensing might not be bad either.

 

Hope they still make a move in the Rule 5 -- we've got the perfect roster to audition such players, even if the odds of success are low.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Also, any reason the Nolasco/Hughes official announcements couldn't have been delayed further? Like, until after the meetings and Rule 5 draft? Even if it's a minor advantage, might have been nice to keep a little extra roster flexibility through those, then re-assess.

[howieramone1406390264]

THIS is why teams should be willing to trade prospects for proven players.......and yet, they keep not doing it. When they were in AA, if you had packaged Benson and Hendriks, you could have something. Now, you have nothing at all.

 

Completely agree. I'll never understand why Ryan and the guys don't know enough to trade the prospects who are going to fail and only keep those who are going to succeed. IIRC we even had a tread on Benson where the board was certain he was nothing but a stiff. Why didn't we get a Jamie Carroll type return so we could use all that money on Tanaka's posting fee? Where is the accountability?

[Badsmerf]

I've been a big Hendriks supporter for several years. I'm not as pissed about this move as I was with Benson. They are completely different scenarios. There is a whole lot more talent on the 40 man now than there was then. Plus, the Twins aren't relying on an unproven rookie from AA over him.

 

I don't think Hendriks was progressing. This might actually be the best thing for him. I doubt the Twins could trade him for anything. Hopefully he lands somewhere he can succeed.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Completely agree. I'll never understand why Ryan and the guys don't know enough to trade the prospects who are going to fail and only keep those who are going to succeed. We even had a tread on Benson where the board was 100% certain that he was nothing but a stiff.

To be fair, Ryan never trades any prospects, ever. He could probably stand to take a few more risks in that regard -- Bill Smith actually made some good low-risk type moves with low-level prospects, filling in the MLB roster well. (Of course, don't let Bill Smith anywhere near your higher-level prospects!)

[Mike Sixel]

I wasn't talking just about the Twins...heck, I wasn't talking just about baseball. In every sport, teams undervalue (IMO) the proven track record of experienced MLB players, and over value the hope that a prospect/draft pick will bring. This is especially true of teams close to winning it all, who refuse to part with the future for a much more certain present.

[gunnarthor]

I wasn't talking just about the Twins...heck, I wasn't talking just about baseball. In every sport, teams undervalue (IMO) the proven track record of experienced MLB players, and over value the hope that a prospect/draft pick will bring. This is especially true of teams close to winning it all, who refuse to part with the future for a much more certain present.

 

But you also might be over valuing other teams interest. I think the Twins are one of the few teams that aren't turned off by low strike out rates. In 2011, Hendriks krate fell off when he went to AAA and wasn't good in his cup of coffee with us. Other teams clearly would have scouted that and most probably thought he was, at best, a #5 pitcher or bullpen arm. No need to trade for that type of player. Even coupled with Benson, who never showed good plate discipline, I'm not sure a lot of teams would have wanted to trade value and give up two roster spots to those type of guys. Generally, when teams trade for prospects they want established prospects or lottery tickets or young guys not burning up option years. Rarely do you see a team trade for AAA level players with low floors and ceilings.

[Twins Twerp]

Completely agree. I'll never understand why Ryan and the guys don't know enough to trade the prospects who are going to fail and only keep those who are going to succeed. IIRC we even had a tread on Benson where the board was certain he was nothing but a stiff. Why didn't we get a Jamie Carroll type return so we could use all that money on Tanaka's posting fee? Where is the accountability?

 

Like! I love hindsight moves like "we should have traded Hendricks when he had all the value (according to no one ever) for proven All-Stars when we had the chance, dangit..."

 

Why not trade Parmalee and Hendricks and a bunch of other barely AAAA players for a proven vet. Terry Ryan should be fired because of that #stoppostingtradeideas

[Otto von Ballpark]

Rarely do you see a team trade for AAA level players with low floors and ceilings.

 

Off the top of my head, that's exactly how the Twins acquired Pavano and Rauch.

[savvyspy]

This was addition by subtraction. As a season ticket holder its a fantastic move since I'm guaranteed not to have to suffer through another one of his starts. He's never going to be a factor anywhere outside of maybe going to a giant park in the NL like San Diego. Even then he tops out as a 5th starter/fill in guy max.

 

I'd say the same thing about Albers and Diamond. Finding 5th starters, while a Twins core competancy, is about the easiest thing in the game. There are probably 2-3 dozen 5th starters you could find in the middle of the season that would be just as good as Hendricks ever showed this team.

 

The only people that should even care about this are the guys running the Rochester Redwings. He is a solid AAA arm and could help them win games.

[bird]

I really hope he clears waivers. I'd much rather have dumped Johnson, but this strikes me as a move of frustration by the Twins. I think they've just run out of ways to try and get him to translate his minor league success to the bigs.

 

I'd imagine Hendriks frustrated his coaches. But the Twins gather every important member of their field staff every fall and assess every player, so I doubt the decision was made out of frustration. Give them a little more credit than that.

[Thrylos]

Like! I love hindsight moves like "we should have traded Hendricks when he had all the value (according to no one ever) for proven All-Stars when we had the chance, dangit..."

 

How about this for not-hindsight: Ryan should trade May, Berrios, Danny Santana and a couple more prospects while they still have value.

[gunnarthor]

Off the top of my head, that's exactly how the Twins acquired Pavano and Rauch.

 

Sure, of course and good point. Twins have shown an ability to make those type of trades (Butera for Suliman being another example). Benson and Hendriks could probably have been in those type of trades. I guess I was thinking that Mike was suggesting that the Twins should have traded Hendriks/Benson for a better than that type deal than that. Trading a AAA guy for a half season of a vet isn't what I was thinking he was talking about.

[Kwak]

Hendriks was the epitome of a "Twins Way" pitcher: pounded the strike zone, hardly walked anybody, got the ball "put in play" with few pitches--yet he failed at the major league level. Does this action (DFA) serve as an admission that the theory of pitching/pitcher development used for Hendriks is/will be replaced by a new theory? I guess only time will tell.

[Mike Sixel]

But you also might be over valuing other teams interest. I think the Twins are one of the few teams that aren't turned off by low strike out rates. In 2011, Hendriks krate fell off when he went to AAA and wasn't good in his cup of coffee with us. Other teams clearly would have scouted that and most probably thought he was, at best, a #5 pitcher or bullpen arm. No need to trade for that type of player. Even coupled with Benson, who never showed good plate discipline, I'm not sure a lot of teams would have wanted to trade value and give up two roster spots to those type of guys. Generally, when teams trade for prospects they want established prospects or lottery tickets or young guys not burning up option years. Rarely do you see a team trade for AAA level players with low floors and ceilings.

 

Again, I'm not talking about these guys in specific....I'm talking about teams and the value they place on prospects/draft picks in general. I don't know how to be more clear on that.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Trading a AAA guy for a half season of a vet isn't what I was thinking he was talking about.

 

Rauch was actually 1.5 seasons. And Pavano accepted arbitration so he was effectively 1.5 seasons, then re-signed reasonably beyond that too.

 

Agreed it won't bring back stars or anything, but I think this is a good way to plug holes in the roster, obviously more useful on a contending team but not a bad idea to pursue all the time. Curious to see if TR can make this kind of move now.

[Brock Beauchamp]

How about this for not-hindsight: Ryan should trade May, Berrios, Danny Santana and a couple more prospects while they still have value.

 

I'd be down with Berrios and Santana, though I think more value might be found by keeping May around for a bit. I don't think his value is terribly high right now... Though if another GM is interested, trade 'im.

[Thrylos]

Rauch was actually 1.5 seasons. And Pavano accepted arbitration so he was effectively 1.5 seasons, then re-signed reasonably beyond that too.

 

Agreed it won't bring back stars or anything, but I think this is a good way to plug holes in the roster, obviously more useful on a contending team but not a bad idea to pursue all the time. Curious to see if TR can make this kind of move now.

 

forget the "now" part. TR never made this kind of a move. The much maligned Bill Smith made those moves... Ryan has a hard time trading prospects. He has traded young players who were at the MLB level, like Kielty but not prospects.