The worst contract I've ever seen

[notoriousgod71]

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/jacoby-ellsbury-agrees-to-7-year----153-million-deal-with-yankees-020323816.html

[Squirrel]

Oy ... thank God that wasn't our signing.

[darin617]

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/jacoby-ellsbury-agrees-to-7-year----153-million-deal-with-yankees-020323816.html

 

I thought it would be the Joe Mauer contract.

[Thrylos]

Blackburn? Capps? Pavano?

[twinsfan34]

As my dad has said many times, "there's a sucker born every day."

[EephusKnuckler]

Ya, almost 22mil a year for a 30 year old oft-injured speed guy seems like a poor use of funds. It's funny because of all the gnashing of teeth from Sox fans, though.

 

The article says they're still trying to retain Cano, but this move makes me doubtful. The way Cano and his camp have operated so far, I can't imagine they'll take this news lightly. Just earlier today there was a report that Cano and the Yankees were far apart and I don't think this kind of signing is going to help matters. He's gonna take a reasonable (not 300 million, lol) deal somewhere else.

[Mike Sixel]

Oft injured? He is the safest FA this year, though seven years is one more than I would have done.

[twinsfan34]

It could be a little bit of addition by subtraction too. Helps Yankees, hurts Red Sox. Maybe why they were more willing to go after Ellsbury and for as much as they did.

[johnnydakota]

Looks like they are spending there savings on A-RODs contract.

Im guessing they will sign another player or 2 who have

draft pick compensations attached to them, as of now the Yankees lost 2 picks

[biggentleben]

Basically, you're paying $22M for Kenny Lofton. No way would I do that.

[AllhopeisgoneMNTWINS]

Ooffda! Man this contract is bad.

[iastfan112]

Ellsbury's average out 5ish wins(even with missing significant time to injury) over the past 3 years, 22 million per is not that bad of deal. Speed guys tend to age well offensively as well so that helps even if he has to move from center in the later half of this contract. I personally see this turning out like Torii Hunter's deal with the Angels, viewed as an overpay at the start but ends up being something close to market value.

[Shane Wahl]

Speed guys do not age well offensively.

 

Anyway, Ellsbury is definitely worth a lot of money, but I would really like to see the second best offer to him. 6/100 seems on target. This is really out there.

[ND-Fan]

I kind of wonder these deals for seven years is like deferred contract instead paying it like in 5 year deal they do 7 years and money paid out at end after inflation is not what it would have been if they paid dollar value out in 5 or 4 year deal. I it gives them control of that player if they do age out better than they anticipated for extended years. Also the last years of the contract I have seen where they trade the Player and pay excess of salary to another team and they move on to another player. Remember in Money Ball when Billy Bean tells David Justice he's only paying so much he's worth now and Yankees are paying rest of his salary. I think this is how Yankees approach these deals they are always playing to win now and if they do win its makes franchise worth more and continually increases revenue to continue to pay these salaries. Inflation and continued growth covers what they overpay and value of Yankees just keeps increasing because of this and strokes ownership ego's in that their always considered a winner. That's big difference between baseball and football where they all teams share revenue and work under salary cap spent on players you don't get this big difference on how teams spend on players all are pretty much equal.

[iastfan112]

Speed guys do not age well offensively.

 

Anyway, Ellsbury is definitely worth a lot of money, but I would really like to see the second best offer to him. 6/100 seems on target. This is really out there.

 

http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/article/does_speed_age_better/

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-slow-decline-of-speedy-outfielders/

 

Now obviously Ellsbury could bust but the athleticism speed players possess tend to make them age pretty gracefully.

[drivlikejehu]

Yeah this isn't a horrible deal... contracts worse than this happen all the time. In a vacuum it's an overpay, but the Yankees aren't in a vacuum- there is a lot of pressure on the organization and it's dealing with uncertainty (e.g., A-Rod & Cano). They wanted to add a very good player quickly, and did so.

[MichiganTwins]

Oft injured? He is the safest FA this year, though seven years is one more than I would have done.

He has played 4 full or close to full season and the other two seasons he played a combined 92 games. (not counting his 2007 season when he was first brought up) I would not stick that much money for a guy who has played a full season every other year. Plus, if that every other holds that means 4 hurt years and 3 healthy in this contract. (sarcasm) Anyway, what makes you say he is the safest free agent?

[Mike Sixel]

What makes a contract bad?

 

1. The money could be used better elsewhere, but remember, you can only have 24 guys.

 

2. The money keeps them from signing another player. We know, probably, this is not the case for the Yankees.

 

3. The team keeps playing a player that is bad because he makes money. No idea if this will happen if Jacoby becomes bad or not.

 

Is he worth that much to a team where the money creates opportunity costs? I think that is debatable, but for the Yankees? It creats no opportunity cost at all probably.

 

Not all wins are equal, and not all payroll situations are equal. He's one of the best players in baseball the last few years. If he gets them over the top and in the playoffs, that's worth a lot to them.

 

the Yankees were 16th in runs scored last year. It is easier to fix that in FA than it is to fix pitching.

 

In a vacuum, for other teams, it might or might not be a good deal. For a team that really does not have budget constraints, I don't get how this can be considered a bad deal.

[Major League Ready]

How do you like that ... Mike and I agree. This is not such a bad deal if you are the Yankees. We won't really know for seven years. Recent history would suggest these 7+ year deals are likely to fail more than they succeed. How bad an idea this is would depend on the teams relative ability to absorb the contract.

[Brock Beauchamp]

This news might be better than the Nolasco and Hughes signings combined.

 

Yes, I hate the Yankees that much. I love seeing them do something so monumentally stupid that no one can believe it.

[Mike Sixel]

How do you like that ... Mike and I agree. This is not such a bad deal if you are the Yankees. We won't really know for seven years. Recent history would suggest these 7+ year deals are likely to fail more than they succeed. How bad an idea this is would depend on the teams relative ability to absorb the contract.

 

Ha!

 

We probably agree more than we admit/realize.

[Steve Penz]

This news might be better than the Nolasco and Hughes signings combined.

 

Yes, I hate the Yankees that much. I love seeing them do something so monumentally stupid that no one can believe it.

 

 

Yes to this. Good for Ellisbury, I like him as a player. I hate the Yankees and am happy to see them make poor decisions. For Christmas I want them to sign Vernon Wells to a hefty extension.

[jokin]

Ha!

 

We probably agree more than we admit/realize.

 

I haven't read the rest of the thread...but the Yankees clearly are playing mind games on the rest of the League about their supposed "desperate" attempts at getting the payroll under $189M and shedding the bad contracts once and for all. In fact, they're clearly going after the best FAs at every position of weakness and doing whatever it takes, Yankee-Insane $ & Ridiculous Out Year-Style.....heck, they'll get Tanaka too, if the MLB doesn't stop them from doing so by bending the posting rules.

 

But don't you think the terms of the Ellsbury deal stands out particularly as a Bronx-Bomber shot across the Red Sox bow and really just rubbing it in their face?.

[Willihammer]

Basically, you're paying $22M for Kenny Lofton. No way would I do that.

 

All Lofton did between 30-36 was hit .287/.368/.422 while providing excellent defense and baserunning.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/yankees-sign-jacoby-ellsbury-bet-on-speed-aging-well/

[kab21]

I think this has a long way to go before it can be considered the worst contract ever. I'm glad the Twins didn't jump into this though.

 

1. ARod - the Yankees bid against themselves

2. Howard - They extended for 138M 2-3 seasons before his contract ended and he was broken before the new contract even started.

3. Zito

4. Fielder/Pujols/Votto - 3 ridiculously long extensions to 1Bman

5. Hamilton - this looked a little questionable at the time but he has been exceptionally awful.

6. Tex - 3 more years left as he enters the death spiral part of his career

7. CCrawford - basically the equal of Ellsbury's

8. Cano?

9. Verlander - He showed signs of slowing last year and Leyland has run up some pretty high pitch counts on his arm.

10. Wells extension from the Blue Jays. They paid elite player prices ridiculously backloaded for a good player that barely deserved to be on a baseball field for half of the contract.

 

An interesting argument could be made for/against any of these being better/worse than Ellsbury's deal. And there are probably 5-10 more that could be added to these.

[Siehbiscuit]

I think this has a long way to go before it can be considered the worst contract ever. I'm glad the Twins didn't jump into this though.

 

1. ARod - the Yankees bid against themselves

2. Howard - They extended for 138M 2-3 seasons before his contract ended and he was broken before the new contract even started.

3. Zito

4. Fielder/Pujols/Votto - 3 ridiculously long extensions to 1Bman

5. Hamilton - this looked a little questionable at the time but he has been exceptionally awful.

6. Tex - 3 more years left as he enters the death spiral part of his career

7. CCrawford - basically the equal of Ellsbury's

8. Cano?

9. Verlander - He showed signs of slowing last year and Leyland has run up some pretty high pitch counts on his arm.

10. Wells extension from the Blue Jays. They paid elite player prices ridiculously backloaded for a good player that barely deserved to be on a baseball field for half of the contract.

 

An interesting argument could be made for/against any of these being better/worse than Ellsbury's deal. And there are probably 5-10 more that could be added to these.

 

 

No way on #4. Fielder will always hit. Pujols had a terrible year this yea, but that was almost entirely due to injuries. Votto is definitely earning his contract.

[Winston Smith]

Amazing how people can see into the future. Time will tell if it's a bad contract, the Yankees have the money and are trying to make their team better.

 

The Twins have lots of money still about 30-35 mill below the stated 52% Jim Pohlad said they'd spend to put a competitive team on the field.

 

I'd much rather have my team try and maybe end up with a bad contract instead of sitting back afraid of making a mistake while keeping the money in the owners pocket.

[kab21]

No way on #4. Fielder will always hit. Pujols had a terrible year this yea, but that was almost entirely due to injuries. Votto is definitely earning his contract.

 

Perhaps on Fielder but we are talking about 7 more years and he wasn't elite last year.

Pujols has shown decline for 3 straight years (with 8 years left). http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/albert-pujols-swift-descent/

Votto's new contract hasn't even started yet. He has 10 more years left.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Amazing how people can see into the future. Time will tell if it's a bad contract, the Yankees have the money and are trying to make their team better.

 

The Twins have lots of money still about 30-35 mill below the stated 52% Jim Pohlad said they'd spend to put a competitive team on the field.

 

I'd much rather have my team try and maybe end up with a bad contract instead of sitting back afraid of making a mistake while keeping the money in the owners pocket.

 

He's an up the middle guy with a marginal bat outside of the 2011 season, he has marginal plate discipline, and lives and dies by his legs.

 

In short, he's not a guy you want to give a seven year contract. Sure, he might be Rickey Henderson... But we've seen exactly one Rickey Henderson since 1920. Odds are against the guy thriving through his late 30s.

 

It's not about seeing the future, it's playing the odds and using player models to your advantage to minimize risk. And all things point to Jacoby Ellsbury declining quite rapidly. Hell, he hasn't been a great player since 2011 (and it should also be noted that was the only season he was a great player).

 

Ignore what appears to be a flukish 2011 and Ellsbury is basically Michael Bourn at three times the price. I'm not sure how anyone would consider that a good deal.

[twinsfan34]

No way on #4. Fielder will always hit. Pujols had a terrible year this yea, but that was almost entirely due to injuries. Votto is definitely earning his contract.

 

I tend to agree with Seabiscuit. Votto is hitting. Fielder, the guy hasn't missed a game. Detroit is tougher on LHB. I think he'll do fine in Texas. He's never been injured in any form.

 

Pujols had foot surgery, oblique issues, and shoulder issues. He tried to play through them. He had the surgery. I don't think he's done. I think he can hit til he's 37/38 at .300 30 100 level. I can be wrong of course. I just don't see his skills diminishing that much when healthy. He's too disciplined/hard worker to not.

 

I would agree with the rest of your list though.

 

Maybe Verlander, like Clemens sans the steroids, will have a 2nd wing after 30 to his career.