Twins Interested in Brett Anderson

[Rosterman]

Interesting name. He may or may not pan out in the end, that and his current salary obligations would be the big factor. The A's don't have a lot of roster space to just take guys, but a Worley and a couple of non 40-man depth minor league guys might pull the string. They got their closer. The pain about trading relief is that no one needs to trade for it until the season begins...enough names out there looking for jobs that CAN be reasonably priced (just former Twins Neshek, Guerrier, Crain alone).

[jorgenswest]

As long as Worley is out of options and has a tenuous spot on the roster, he has no trade value. The Twins might be able to get a similar out of options player for Worley.

 

I think the A's will keep him unless they get an offer of real prospects. They don't need players on the fringe of another teams 25 and 40 man roster. They certainly don't need multiple fringe players.

[Willihammer]

120 days is a long time for a sprained ankle. Not so long when you have a fracture, like was listed in baseball prospectus.

 

 

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Oh yeah I missed that.

 

So we're not talking about a hamstring pull or turf toe or Justin Morneau back spasms that show up every other September. And if the Twins can pay something like the Nats did for Fister...

[halfchest]

He's pitched 160 innings combined over the past 3 years . . . . let that sink in.

 

Now breathe and think about what you would really give up for a guy who could be on his way to being the next rich harden. Sure he's worth giving something up for but no way do they touch anyone in the top ten for him. Just not worth it. Especially with how good our top ten really is. I would say let them pick a reliever and a low level prospect with upside. Maybe that dude we got for Butera. or one of our GCL starters that everyone is hyped up on.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Now breathe and think about what you would really give up for a guy who could be on his way to being the next rich harden.

 

Interesting comp in Rich Harden.

 

Both Anderson and Harden were up with Oakland at age 21, had early success and signed contracts through age 27. But through age 25 both had only pitched around 450 MLB innings due to repeated injuries, and neither pitched much from ages 23-25. (Harden had not yet had major surgery, however, and was the better pitcher through age 25: career ERA+ 124 to Anderson's 108).

 

Oakland got 13 good starts out of Harden at age 26 before flipping him to the Cubs for:

- their previous years sandwich pick (22 y.o. decent hitting college catcher in A-ball)

- a 22 y.o. starter with 10 good starts already to begin his career (7.5 K/9 and 103 ERA+, #82 preseason prospect)

- a 26 y.o. corner OF with an average MLB bat over almost 1000 PAs, wasting in AAA?

- a 25 y.o. MLB ready 2B with decent all-around minor league numbers but very little MLB experience to date

 

Think the Twins can match that?

 

(FWIW, only the catcher amounted to much in MLB, the late blossoming Josh Donaldson)

[Willihammer]

He's pitched 160 innings combined over the past 3 years . . . . let that sink in.

 

Now breathe and think about what you would really give up for a guy who could be on his way to being the next rich harden. Sure he's worth giving something up for but no way do they touch anyone in the top ten for him. Just not worth it. Especially with how good our top ten really is. I would say let them pick a reliever and a low level prospect with upside. Maybe that dude we got for Butera. or one of our GCL starters that everyone is hyped up on.

 

My impression is that TJs are a more reliable recovery than shoulder surgeries. Therefore I would expect the price to be higher. And again, unless the Twins intend to enter the Tanaka sweepstakes or signing Santana/Garza I think they have to be open to paying whatever price that is.

[howieramone1406390264]

My impression is that TJs are a more reliable recovery than shoulder surgeries. Therefore I would expect the price to be higher. And again, unless the Twins intend to enter the Tanaka sweepstakes or signing Santana/Garza I think they have to be open to paying whatever price that is.

 

I'm sure they will enter the Tanaka sweepstakes, but lose mostly likely the to the Yankees. No way they will pursue albatross contracts with Santana/Garza. Ryan recently said it's unlikely he will use his prospects. If they do pursue another free agent starter, I believe they will wait the market out and make a Pelfrey type signing.

[halfchest]

The Harden comp was more about injury than performance I guess. Brett Anderson doesn't have near the upside that Harden did as you pointed out. Plus I think teams are a bit more hesitant about trading prospect than they were a few years ago. Like I said, no one in the top ten, I would say one major league reliever and a young high upside prospect someone in the 15-30 range preferably. You can tell me I told you so if I'm wrong but I don't think they're going to get much more than that in any trade that happens in the offseason. Maybe some team will overpay, I don't think the Twins will do that. If it were me, I'd hold onto him and try to trade him at the deadline next year, hoping he puts together 10-15 good starts prior to that. The fact that the A's are trying to get rid of him when they are in win now mode would make me nervous as well. He could be a major piece for them this season.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Another way to look at it:

 

Using Sickels rankings, the Cubs traded their preseason 3, 4, and 6 prospects (plus Matt Murton, 26 y.o. ~100 OPS+ corner OF) midseason 2008 for Harden. All grade B (equivalent to Rosario or Berrios now).

[halfchest]

Another way to look at it:

 

Using Sickels rankings, the Cubs traded their preseason 3, 4, and 6 prospects (plus Matt Murton, 26 y.o. ~100 OPS+ corner OF) midseason 2008 for Harden. All grade B (equivalent to Rosario or Berrios now).

 

Again, apples and oranges. Other than injury history these are not the same guys. If Brett Anderson can come in and pitch 77 innings of 2.34 ERA and strike out 11 per 9 IP then yes, the A's are going to get handsomely rewarded for being patient. Unfortunately Brett Anderson has never had an ERA below 2.8 and a career K/9 of 7.1. Really not the same guy.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Well, they are dissimilar pitchers (Anderson is a control guy, Harden a K guy), but they have had somewhat similar effectiveness. Anderson was a career 118 ERA+ guy until 2013, when crazy BABIP and HR/FB dragged him down in his limited innings. And he is left-handed, which can be a bonus. Also, Anderson has already had his major surgery, while Harden always seemed on the precipice of it.

 

I prefer vintage Harden to Anderson too (kinda wish the Twins had been able to swing a deal for him back in the day). But that doesn't mean the A's demands will drop THAT significantly from three B prospects (2 in MLB already, one performing well) and a useful cheap major leaguer. If it's spare parts and maybe one B prospect, the A's will just hold onto him and try to showcase him one last time.

[Mike Sixel]

I am changing my mind some.....IF they feel he can be healthy, I'd deal Rosario or almost any prospect not named Sano or Buxton for him. But it is all dependent on their medical opinions.

[JB_Iowa]

From the current Hot Stove chat on ESPN1500:

 

 

• I DO think the Twins will add another pitcher. I'm hearing rumblings at Target Field -- people believe Terry Ryan could make a fairly big trade next week.
  by Phil Mackey 12/6/2013 6:37:07 PM 12:37 PM
  
  • Like I said, I think the Twins will really kick the tires on potential trades. Keep an eye on A's LHP Brett Anderson.
    by Phil Mackey 12/6/2013 6:40:10 PM 12:40 PM
    
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  • Considering Anderson's injury history and $8 million contract, I don't think it would take top prospects. I'll throw the question back to you guys: If the A's said "Arcia for Anderson, and he's yours," do you do it if you're Terry Ryan?
    by Phil Mackey 12:43 PM
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[ericchri]

Um, "wouldn't take top prospects" and then he throws out Arcia's name? He's only not a top prospect because he's not technically a prospect anymore due to service time. If he was still a prospect, he'd almost certainly be in our top 6, maybe top 3. That's just silly.

 

And no, I wouldn't trade Arcia for him. Kepler/Walker/Harrison/Hicks, maybe, but not Arcia.

[Mike Sixel]

Ha, trade Arcia? So basically have zero OFers next year?

[Willihammer]

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  • Considering Anderson's injury history and $8 million contract, I don't think it would take top prospects. I'll throw the question back to you guys: If the A's said "Arcia for Anderson, and he's yours," do you do it if you're Terry Ryan?
    by Phil Mackey 12:43 PM
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Hm, well if the As think they can swap out Cespedes to the DBacks for pitching then backfill with Arcia then I think the Twins might be better served just trading with the DBacks.

 

Or better yet, exhausting the budget before trading away guys like Arcia.

[Riverbrian]

The A's didn't fall into Money... They are going for it with the usual constraints.

 

They have a lot of pitching... After picking up Johnson and Kazmir... They can't afford Anderson's contract and they have arms to cover.

 

The A's want to shed the salary in my opinion.

 

Take the contract and it really shouldn't cost much in prospects.

[halfchest]

I agree with Phil, no I would not deal Arcia for him. We're not a team in contention. The only reason it makes sense to deal for Brett Anderson is if he's had relatively on the cheap. He's got two years left. We MIGHT be competing with the Tigers again in 2015 but that depends on a lot of prospects coming up and figuring it out quickly. So to give up a piece that should be a contributing regular and possible all star for the next 5-6 years doesn't make sense.

 

I may be wrong and I'll own up but I just don't see Brett Anderson bringing in anything great right now. A reasonable deal would be a solid young reliever and then a prospect with good upside in the low minors.

[halfchest]

Well, they are dissimilar pitchers (Anderson is a control guy, Harden a K guy), but they have had somewhat similar effectiveness. Anderson was a career 118 ERA+ guy until 2013, when crazy BABIP and HR/FB dragged him down in his limited innings. And he is left-handed, which can be a bonus. Also, Anderson has already had his major surgery, while Harden always seemed on the precipice of it.

 

I prefer vintage Harden to Anderson too (kinda wish the Twins had been able to swing a deal for him back in the day). But that doesn't mean the A's demands will drop THAT significantly from three B prospects (2 in MLB already, one performing well) and a useful cheap major leaguer. If it's spare parts and maybe one B prospect, the A's will just hold onto him and try to showcase him one last time.

 

It's not just the performance though either. It's the timing. Right now he's coming off his worst season and third year in a row of having injury issues. Being more realistic, lets say he starts the year off with the A's pitches 10-15 starts with no major injury concerns at around a 3.5 ERA with his usually solid K/BB and Groundball numbers then yes, he could bring a decent haul. When Harden was traded for that group of players he was having a lights out season and no big health concerns. Looked like he might finally be snapping out of his past injury issues and had the past to back up that this wasn't just a hot start. Harden's career ERA+ was 138 following the season he was traded in. probably a little lower at time of trade but still. He was much better in all ways than Brett and had shown a glimpse that he might be healthy again. Unfortunately for him and the Cubs it didn't last but still. Point is teams were mid-season trying to compete and this guy was looking like the Ace he had been in the past. Brett doesn't have that half season of health and good performance for everyone to look at and throw top prospects at in a trade. He's got three seasons where he's been mediocre as a whole and injury riddled to boot.

[diehardtwinsfan]

From the current Hot Stove chat on ESPN1500:

 

 

• I DO think the Twins will add another pitcher. I'm hearing rumblings at Target Field -- people believe Terry Ryan could make a fairly big trade next week.
  by Phil Mackey 12/6/2013 6:37:07 PM 12:37 PM
  
  • Like I said, I think the Twins will really kick the tires on potential trades. Keep an eye on A's LHP Brett Anderson.
    by Phil Mackey 12/6/2013 6:40:10 PM 12:40 PM
    
  • Considering Anderson's injury history and $8 million contract, I don't think it would take top prospects. I'll throw the question back to you guys: If the A's said "Arcia for Anderson, and he's yours," do you do it if you're Terry Ryan?
    by Phil Mackey 12:43 PM
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I think they should kick the tires on trades. I wouldn't be surprised in the least if Perkins is a member of another team and Casey Fein is closing for us next year (with Tonkin being groomed to replace him).

 

That said, I would not in a million years trade Arcia for Anderson. Arcia is a member of the next run and looks like he will be a beast in the lineup... and with guys like Sano, Mauer, and Buxton batting around him, teams won't exactly be able to pitch around him. Add in some of the other potential high(er) ceiling bats, and you have a pretty good lineup top to bottom.