More rumors: Twins on Nolasco

[jay]

I am OK with Nolasco as long as he is our second best pitcher signed, not the "ace"

 

I keep seeing that line of thought. Both here and with Arroyo. I don't get it. First, it's "sign a pitcher!"... and now it's "that guy isn't good enough!". I'll take any significant signing and be happy with it. If anything, we've seen how much of a crapshoot this free agency game is.

 

Further, I'd say there's no ace out there to be signed and I only count 4 guys that would even qualify as a potential target better than Nolasco -- Tanaka, Santana, Jimenez, Kazmir. Maybe Johnson if you're looking at upside. With 30 teams out there, those are pretty slim odds... especially given the Twins non-contender status.

[Craig in MN]

Nolasco is a maddenly frustrating guy. Like you said, FIP of a 2 and results much worse. The fact that he can consistently do this tells me that some of these advanced stats need some tweaking, because something other than random distribution is going on here.

 

 

Perhaps the stat doesn't need to be fixed...perhaps it is telling you something important. Maybe there is something about the Marlins home park that didn't suit his pitching. Maybe something about the Marlins defensive players or defensive positioning. Or the catcher didn't call the game that he needed. Or the pitching coach didn't suit him. Or it was the heat, or the wind, or the depressing fanbase, or who knows what.

 

I think it is something about the Marlins stadium. For his career, opposing hitters have a .743 OPS against Nolasco. At the old Marlins park (Sunlife or whatever), opponents had a .783 OPS against him. That's about a third of his career games, where he probably looked like a 5th starter. In games NOT in Sunlife, it is more like .723 OPS against. He moved out of that park this year and his stats got much more normal. I'd sign him and hopefully expect him to pitch more like .723 OPS against pitcher...which is more like a #2, and more like his peripherals. That's why I like him.

[howieramone1406390264]

So, basically 30-40 million per year. That is doable. Especially after losing the contracts of Morneau, Blackburn, Pelfrey, and Jamey Carroll. Not even counting the new TV contract kicking in. The Twins can afford this and I just see TR setting up the whole cliche statement of "We pursued some major FA pitchers but we just couldn't land them. So, we have some great in-house options"....the Twins way....

 

Having enough money is the easy part. Why not wait to see how this plays out?

[Smcginnity]

I keep seeing that line of thought. Both here and with Arroyo. I don't get it. First, it's "sign a pitcher!"... and now it's "that guy isn't good enough!". I'll take any significant signing and be happy with it. If anything, we've seen how much of a crapshoot this free agency game is.

 

Further, I'd say there's no ace out there to be signed and I only count 4 guys that would even qualify as a potential target better than Nolasco -- Tanaka, Santana, Jimenez, Kazmir. Maybe Johnson if you're looking at upside. With 30 teams out there, those are pretty slim odds... especially given the Twins non-contender status.

 

I agree man. The Twins will NEVER sign an ace FA pitcher and I NEVER expect them to or really think they should. They will break the bank by doing that. However, FA should be used for filling pitcher holes in the #2-5 range. We need to hope/pray for aces to arrive through the minors with guys like Kohl Stewart, Alex Meyer, Trevor May, Berrios or Thorpe.

[Big City]

The Rangers paid $100 million for 5-years of Darvish and are still reaping about $5 million/year in value from the signing. Similar value can be had by siging Tanaka. He's only 25 and has experienced similar success in Japanese baseball to Darvish.

 

I'd then go after Kazmir and Kuroda to fill out the rotation and Pierzynski to platoon with Pinto.

[twinsin17]

I keep seeing that line of thought. Both here and with Arroyo. I don't get it. First, it's "sign a pitcher!"... and now it's "that guy isn't good enough"

Yes, this type of thought process is extremely frustrating. The Twins need to add SP depth with free agents and hope an ace or two rises from the system. We will never sign an ace (fine by me, it never works out well) but we can sign quality mid rotation arms. That is what Nolasco and Arroyo are. If 2 of our top pitching prospects develop into 1st or 2nd starters then all of the sudden our pitching could be a strength.

[cmb0252]

The Rangers paid $100 million for 5-years of Darvish and are still reaping about $5 million/year in value from the signing. Similar value can be had by siging Tanaka. He's only 25 and has experienced similar success in Japanese baseball to Darvish.

 

I'd then go after Kazmir and Kuroda to fill out the rotation and Pierzynski to platoon with Pinto.

 

Tanaka isn't Darvish. Darvish has far better stuff. Tanaka is more like the Dodgers Ryu.

[Smcginnity]

Yes, this type of thought process is extremely frustrating. The Twins need to add SP depth with free agents and hope an ace or two rises from the system. We will never sign an ace (fine by me, it never works out well) but we can sign quality mid rotation arms. That is what Nolasco and Arroyo are. If 2 of our top pitching prospects develop into 1st or 2nd starters then all of the sudden our pitching could be a strength.

 

Completely agree. This is the approach the Twins should take. Which is why I think signing two guys like Arroyo and Nolasco is a great idea. And then add a questionable guy like Johan, Colby Lewis, or Josh Johnson.

[gunnarthor]

The Rangers paid $100 million for 5-years of Darvish and are still reaping about $5 million/year in value from the signing. Similar value can be had by siging Tanaka. He's only 25 and has experienced similar success in Japanese baseball to Darvish.

.

 

I believe they paid 51m posting fee and then 60m to Darvish, so that's 110m for 6 years. Red Sox spent 100 for 5 years of Dice K.

[70charger]

I keep seeing that line of thought. Both here and with Arroyo. I don't get it. First, it's "sign a pitcher!"... and now it's "that guy isn't good enough!". I'll take any significant signing and be happy with it. If anything, we've seen how much of a crapshoot this free agency game is.

 

Further, I'd say there's no ace out there to be signed and I only count 4 guys that would even qualify as a potential target better than Nolasco -- Tanaka, Santana, Jimenez, Kazmir. Maybe Johnson if you're looking at upside. With 30 teams out there, those are pretty slim odds... especially given the Twins non-contender status.

 

What were we saying about bringing back the like button?

[jay]

Agree in full with the rotation building sentiment.

 

Here's another way to look at it:

If someone were to tell you a month ago, a year ago, pretty much any time period ago, that the Twins were going to be heavily targeting free agent SPs that are in the consensus top-10 available, would anyone have done a single thing except jump for joy?

[Otto von Ballpark]

Further, I'd say there's no ace out there to be signed and I only count 4 guys that would even qualify as a potential target better than Nolasco

 

I actually like Arroyo on a 2-year deal. I think that could be better than Nolasco on a 4-year deal.

[halfchest]

Some are suggesting Kazmir only gets one year. I gotta think with his performance he should easily get 2 but I would be surprised to see more than 2 plus an option for him. I just think with what he did some team is gonna give him an extra year just to get him to sign.

 

At the same time, it might be a smart gamble for Kazmir to do a one year deal. If he has another year like he just did, he could be in line for a really nice 3-4 year deal next off season.

 

I like the suggested idea of Arroyo - 2 years, Kazmir - 2 + an option, and Nolasco 4 + an option. Still don't stick the team with anything way too long term. Nolasco at worst should be a solid middle innings guy and with the current and forseeable payroll it won't limit them from future signings.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I think it is something about the Marlins stadium. For his career, opposing hitters have a .743 OPS against Nolasco. At the old Marlins park (Sunlife or whatever), opponents had a .783 OPS against him. That's about a third of his career games, where he probably looked like a 5th starter. In games NOT in Sunlife, it is more like .723 OPS against. He moved out of that park this year and his stats got much more normal. I'd sign him and hopefully expect him to pitch more like .723 OPS against pitcher...which is more like a #2, and more like his peripherals. That's why I like him.

 

His home/road splits were massive in 2010 and a little unbalanced in 2008 but fairly normal every other year of his career. In 2011 he was still at the old stadium and he had a lower OPS against at home.

 

I don't know... I had my misgivings about Edwin Jackson and his 4/52 deal, and he had 5 straight years as a league-average starter (>= 95 ERA+). Before last year, Nolasco had 4 straight years below that mark.

[Craig in MN]

His home/road splits were massive in 2010 and a little unbalanced in 2008 but fairly normal every other year of his career. In 2011 he was still at the old stadium and he had a lower OPS against at home.

 

Interesting. That certainly makes me question my theory. When you pull out some 30-game samples, there's going to be more variability than if you look at the big picture. For all I know, one or two games against better or weaker teams, or in bad weather, or against September call-ups, or who knows what, could be screwing up a a yearly split. Maybe that means the 2010 was crazier in his favor than it should have been. But for all I know, 2011 or 2009, or whenever were crazier against him than it should have been for similar reasons. I guess I would still will trust the bigger sample, the career-level home-road split sample, but hedge that a little bit.

[snepp]

Nolasco's career-long problem is that he's always been considerably worse with runners on base than with the bases empty, which accounts for his big FIP-ERA discrepancy. It was the same this year, his runners on and w/risp numbers were very similar to his career marks.

 

The big difference between this, and previous years, was that he had fantastic results with the bases empty (.640 OPS) to make up for his putridity with runners on (.777 OPS this year, .779 career).

[johnnydakota]

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/11/olneys-latest-nolasco-twins-joba-royals-peralta-headley.html

 

Not sure what I think of Nolasco - fangraphs likes him a lot more than b-r does. He's still pretty young and more or less durable. Sounds like someone is offering him a 3 year deal but he wants 4.

 

Rumors are saying the Twins are willing to go 5 years for starters...Ok thats fine , but to sign #4 to 5 years when we wouldnt even contact Sanchez last year is stupid...

[stringer bell]

I take issue with two points made above: 1) "Platooning AJ and Pinto" means Pierzynski is the regular catcher. The left handed hitter would start somewhere between 110 and 120 games, that is a full workload for a catcher, particularly one in his late 30s. 2) "Add a questionable guy like Johan, Colby Lewis, or Josh Johnson". Johnson and Lewis might be questionable, but Johan Santana is beyond questionable. The chance of Santana ever being a capable starter probably falls somewhere between Rich Harden and Joel Zumaya making comebacks. If we want an ex-Twin, it should be Scott Baker. If we want an ex-Cy Young, they'd be better off with Doc Halladay.

[johnnydakota]

The Rangers paid $100 million for 5-years of Darvish and are still reaping about $5 million/year in value from the signing. Similar value can be had by siging Tanaka. He's only 25 and has experienced similar success in Japanese baseball to Darvish.

 

I'd then go after Kazmir and Kuroda to fill out the rotation and Pierzynski to platoon with Pinto.

That is asking to much of Terry, even if Pohlad approved spending 150 million to sign Masahiro, do you think he will keep the ole purse open to allow additional signings?, I like those guys also , but if would be estatic if we Got Tanaka this year and another quality starter next year...And even that is a pipe dream

[johnnydakota]

His home/road splits were massive in 2010 and a little unbalanced in 2008 but fairly normal every other year of his career. In 2011 he was still at the old stadium and he had a lower OPS against at home.

 

I don't know... I had my misgivings about Edwin Jackson and his 4/52 deal, and he had 5 straight years as a league-average starter (>= 95 ERA+). Before last year, Nolasco had 4 straight years below that mark.

 

Speaking of Jackson, would the Cubs package him and Samardzija for say Correia ,Gibson Duensing and Parmele?

[John Bonnes]

Speaking of Jackson, would the Cubs package him and Samardzija for say Correia ,Gibson Duensing and Parmele?

 

For a topic switch like this, please start a different thread. Thanks.

[Shane Wahl]

Nolasco is Correia+. Is that not sinking in? That means his value is something more akin to the Arroyo 2/$16 million mark. How is this not clear? There are people here willing to sink $50 million over 4 years for a 4th starter?

[ashbury]

There are people here willing to sink $50 million over 4 years for a 4th starter?

 

He's better than his numbers?

[Shane Wahl]

He's better than his numbers?

 

Yeah, over 1300 innings with a career ERA+ of 94. At some point we have to say, with established pitchers, that the numbers don't lie.

[ashbury]

Yeah, over 1300 innings with a career ERA+ of 94. At some point we have to say, with established pitchers, that the numbers don't lie.

 

It was just a reference to Terry Ryan's quote about Correia, given your linking the two players.

[Shane Wahl]

It was just a reference to Terry Ryan's quote about Correia, given your linking the two players.

 

I got that you weren't making an argument, though I didn't catch the reference to Correia. It makes me a little sick!

[diehardtwinsfan]

Nolasco is Correia+. Is that not sinking in? That means his value is something more akin to the Arroyo 2/$16 million mark. How is this not clear? There are people here willing to sink $50 million over 4 years for a 4th starter?

 

I don't think you are being fair comparing Nolasco to Correia. When exactly did Correia last strike out more than 7/9? They are different pitchers, and the more I look at Nolasco, the more I think this might be a guy that outperforms his contract. In the last four years where he has been solely in the majors, his K/9 has been pretty good (except 2012). His BB/9 has held steady around 2.1. His WHIP has dropped each year as well, as has his HR/9. His ERA has also dropped steadily. I don't expect him to suddenly turn into an ace, but I think there's good reason to think he could pitch like a 2/3 for the duration of a 4 year contract.

[ashbury]

The main thing I worry about with Nolasco is that he has operated under the benefit of home parks catering to pitching, and still hasn't excelled. Target Field may also be favorable to him, but I don't see reason to think he'll suddenly be above average. And a four-year contract, which looks likely if you're going to snare him, adds to the risk.