Article: 2013 Twins Rookie of the Year: Who gets your vote?

[Seth Stohs]

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=2385-2013-Twins-Rookie-of-the-Year-Who-gets-your-vote

[Rez]

I like your pick in Theilbar. He had good year overall and was outstanding at times. Unfortunately, I am afraid that most of his success can be attributed to help of some smoke and mirrors (i.e. Scott Diamond). I hope I am wrong in that he really does have the "stuff" to become a legitimate big league reliever or even a set-up type. I just don't think I see it in him.

 

I will add that I did see glimpses of real talent in Arcia, Herrmann, Gibson, Pressly and even Hicks. *Fingers crossed*

 

ugh... what an ugly season...

[ericchri]

Thielbar was the most consistently good for the entire season, and with this crop that probably earns him the honors. Here's hoping for improvement from all of them. Even tiny improvements from all of those players leads to a fair bit of improvement for the team.

[Thrylos]

If we are talking about which rookie had the best season, it will be hard to argue against Thielbar. The problem is that what he did likely will not happen again (.175 BABIP, 4.14 xFIP). I think that the most promising rookie season was by Arcia first and Pinto (who I know was just a Sept call up) second. Unfortunately no Twins' rookies with be in the AL ROY discussions... Hopefully next season.

[Seth Stohs]

You never know about Sophomore Slumps and such, but I think Thielbar's stuff is legit for a left-handed reliever. Fastball gets up to 92-93. Very good, sharp breaking pitch. Can be very tough on lefties. yes, there may have been some luck involved, and he'll have rough stretches like all relievers do, but I think he can be around for a while!

 

Arcia showed a lot of flashes, and his upside is the highest of everyone we say this season. He should be very good, maybe All Star caliber, for a long time. He impressively had an OPS+ over 100 despite not putting the ball in play enough. It's clear that will be the thing that will determine just how good he can be.

 

Hicks has very good upside as well, as a well-rounded player, and Gibson will be just fine as well. All three of them were top 5-6 prospects a year ago, for me at least. With the next group coming up, there can be some excitement!

[Don't Feed the Greed Guy]

In 2012 we had a rookie shortstop named Tryin' Dozier.

Methinks he was replaced in 2013 by a rookie second baseman, named Brian Dozier...

 

If two or three of the rookies on Seth's list show that sort of Sophomore transformation, I'd be more than content (Hicks, Gibson, and Arcia, please...).

[Brandon]

Pressly was up for the whole season. Though Thielbar had the better stats while he was up. I am still going to go with Pressly on this one.

[DAM DC Twins Fans]

I go with Arcia. Yes Colobello, Theilbar and Albers are feel-good stories. But Arcia is the only Twins rookie who showed he will be a building block for the future. (IMHO)

[tjsyam921]

Thielbar was the most consistent all year so he gets my vote. Followed by Pressly and Arcia. Everyone on the list showed glimpses of good play but mostly poor and inconsistent. When that many players or pitchers are playing so inconsistent its hard for anyone to get picked up by others high level of play.

[roger]

Hey Seth, Although I am not surprised that you chose a reliever as your Rookie of the Year, will this carry over to your rankings? Will minor league relievers begin getting more favorable treatment in your rankings?

[Otto von Ballpark]

This list almost seemed like a cruel joke until Thielbar. Negative WAR for all involved, except Albers (0.2 in 60 IP). (Hicks actually has positive WAR at BB-Ref, though -- Seth is apparently using Fangraphs numbers.)

 

Luck or not, Thielbar has to win from this list. It should have been Arcia but man, that was a rough second half for him (he maintained his isolated power, but I just can't get past the defense and the SO:BB ratio).

 

Actually, I think Pinto would be eligible to win both this year and next. He gets my write-in vote, and hopefully he wins it again next year. (And even more hopefully, he is no longer eligible in 2015!)

[Chance]

Many day that September numbers don't really count because the other players are often callups themselves, but in Pinto's case, he was playing against many teams trying to clinch playoff births. He did a heck of a job against some great pitchers. With that said, I still think I would go Thielbar, Pressly, Arcia, then Pinto.

[Chance]

Next season, Arcia for Twins POY!

[Seth Stohs]

Hey Seth, Although I am not surprised that you chose a reliever as your Rookie of the Year, will this carry over to your rankings? Will minor league relievers begin getting more favorable treatment in your rankings?

 

Fair question, and my cop-out answer is that it'll have to be a case-by-case thing. I can't see any current Twins relief pitching prospects in my top 15-20, including Tonkin. Zach Jones may rank highest for me.

[YourHouseIsMyHouse]

Vote for Pedro!

[beyondclarity]

Agreed this is the best choice but I have one question:

 

Can anyone explain the vast difference between ERA and FIP? To me that says he got lucky in his defense in order to keep his ERA that much lower than his FIP. There should be an inevitable correction coming, right?

[Thrylos]

Agreed this is the best choice but I have one question:

 

Can anyone explain the vast difference between ERA and FIP? To me that says he got lucky in his defense in order to keep his ERA that much lower than his FIP. There should be an inevitable correction coming, right?

 

an ungodly .175 BABIP

[BabyJesusBuxton]

I like your pick in Theilbar. He had good year overall and was outstanding at times. Unfortunately, I am afraid that most of his success can be attributed to help of some smoke and mirrors (i.e. Scott Diamond). I hope I am wrong in that he really does have the "stuff" to become a legitimate big league reliever or even a set-up type. I just don't think I see it in him.

 

I agree with Seth's response to this. Also wanted to add that he throws all his pitches from the same 3/4 slot which makes pitch recognition difficult. I think he got a little lucky on his HR/FB rate this year but even if he does regress some I think his floor is a cheap and effective LOOGY for the foreseeable future.

 

My pick would be Theilbar simply because of his effectiveness and lack of offensive or SP options. Arcia would be my next choice. I had these two flipped until the regression in the second half from Arcia and all his strikeouts/poor defense.

[snepp]

an ungodly .175 BABIP

 

Yup, at least .100 points lower than where you would expect it to be moving forward.

 

 

 

Regardless, he'd probably get my vote.

[Thegrin]

That is 9 rookies. 9. and we complain about the Twins record ? 9 rookies ! this is not counting Pinto & Tomkin. 9 rookies is sure a lot.

[h2oface]

Just as some years, no one gets voted into the Hall of Fame, I would vote for NO ROY for the Minnesota Twins. Sometimes, there just isn't a performance the justifies giving the award. This is one of those years. It should be a special award, not something given by default.

[twinsnorth49]

Arcia, just for the glimpses of hope he provided.

[Seth Stohs]

That is 9 rookies. 9. and we complain about the Twins record ? 9 rookies ! this is not counting Pinto & Tomkin. 9 rookies is sure a lot.

 

It is. Consider that long run of success, typically there would be one, maybe two, rookies that came up and contributed to each team. Instead of them being the story, they were just a part of the story. They could fit in. They had veterans to learn from. There's a lot to be said about that.

[Seth Stohs]

Just as some years, no one gets voted into the Hall of Fame, I would vote for NO ROY for the Minnesota Twins. Sometimes, there just isn't a performance the justifies giving the award. This is one of those years. It should be a special award, not something given by default.

 

That's kind of silly. They had a reliever who threw in 49 games and posted an ERA below two and a WHIP well below one. That's pretty noteworthy.

 

They had another guy who posted an above average OPS and hit 14 home runs.

[roger]

Off topic question Seth, What has happened to Nate Roberts? After last year's wonderful AFL, he began this season again on the DL. I know he played a couple games mid-season for Fort Myers and then went back on the DL. Is his career done?

[jimbo92107]

Caleb Thielbar for sure, with Oswaldo Arcia a respectable second. Thielbar's heater regularly tops 93mph, and his slider/curves are excellent secondaries. Better still, his tempo keeps his fielders awake, his delivery is very quick, and he attacks the zone early to get that vital first strike. Like Albers, plus 5 miles per hour.

 

Arcia was fun to watch, although he had the typical rookie troubles trying to deal with pitchers that change speeds, which they do so much better in the show. Hopefully he will do what Brian Dozier did, take lessons from Bruno on delaying his swing without losing power.

 

Aaron Hicks is going to be a star, that's my prediction. He's got all the right physical characteristics, and he's clearly highly intelligent. However, he appears to be the kind of guy that has to learn every detail about hitting, and then work his butt off with massive repetitions. He's not a "natural" hitter; he's going to have to make himself into one with careful study and lots of experience. Same is true with his base stealing. He's going to have to learn from a great teacher, and it will take time.

 

Josmil Pinto is already there. Forget about his "rookie" year next season. Just put him behind the plate and get Joe Mauer the hell away from those damn foul tips. Pinto's hitting approach is already as good or better than Dozier's new one. He already knows how to delay his flip on off-speed stuff, something a lot of guys never learn.

[h2oface]

Aaron Hicks is going to be a star, that's my prediction. He's got all the right physical characteristics, and he's clearly highly intelligent. However, he appears to be the kind of guy that has to learn every detail about hitting, and then work his butt off with massive repetitions. He's not a "natural" hitter; he's going to have to make himself into one with careful study and lots of experience. Same is true with his base stealing. He's going to have to learn from a great teacher, and it will take time.

 

I sure hope you are right, because right now he hits like the pitcher he could have been. In the outfield, it was sure a joy to see him do what Span was always afraid to do, and dive for the ball.

[Mr. Brooks]

That's kind of silly. They had a reliever who threw in 49 games and posted an ERA below two and a WHIP well below one. That's pretty noteworthy.

 

They had another guy who posted an above average OPS and hit 14 home runs.

 

Right, and that reliever still managed a whopping 0.5 WAR.

Relievers just don't have enough impact on the game, IMO, to be considered for any type of award.

[BabyJesusBuxton]

Right, and that reliever still managed a whopping 0.5 WAR.

Relievers just don't have enough impact on the game, IMO, to be considered for any type of award.

 

Don't tell that to Dennis Eckersley, Eric Gagne, Neftali Feliz, or Craig Kimbrel. Your sentiment is fair and shared by others in the baseball community but I think relievers can have a large impact on the game and completely disagree with them not being eligible for awards, especially ROY awards.

[Seth Stohs]

Off topic question Seth, What has happened to Nate Roberts? After last year's wonderful AFL, he began this season again on the DL. I know he played a couple games mid-season for Fort Myers and then went back on the DL. Is his career done?

 

He played one game for the Miracle. His knee swelled up after the game, and he had to have another knee surgery. Should be ready for spring, but it's tough. That's a lot of knee injury.